Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1051 - 1001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

1051. Levi32
The NAO this year was negative through July, and has popped up to neutral or slight-positive since mid-August. A similar flip occurred in 2008 during September, 2005 during August, 1996 during June, and 1955 during July. These flips usually only last a couple of months before going back negative, but they usually make at least either August or September positive, if not both months. This seems to contribute to the significant number of landfalls during the peaks of these seasons.

Monthly NAO values, from January (left) to December (right):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MZT:
Remember Zeta? It's been done.


Oh, it's happened before alright, but it's a pretty rare occurance. Just amazing to see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Lake Charles

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL FINALLY START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAKNESS
ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO FINALLY BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE THIS SUMMER FOR
THE WHOLE REGION TO EXPERIENCE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WITH THE
COMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAINS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
FINALLY MODERATE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If 92L becomes Katia, assuming nothing else develops, this tropical wave may become "Lee" in the Bay of Campeche. It does have SOME model support, but not nearly as much as 92L.





Well...judging by the nutiness of the tropics in the last 24 hours...who knows who will be named what? LOL

I still can't get over the fact that 91L becane Jose...who would have honestly thought this 24 hours ago?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hate those pauses...Hopefully it is over now.


Probably server slowness, related to deleting hundreds of banned user posts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
any damg reports from Times Square?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


LOL Thanks again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
testing 123 testing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
1042. MZT
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Unbelievable little thing. To develop into a TS under 40-50 knots of shear is astounding.
Remember Zeta? It's been done.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
testing

was about to do that too
my last couple of posts never showed, thought I got banned :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I hate those pauses...Hopefully it is over now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting Seawall:
Link

Link to some of the Vermont flooding.


Ayup, I was just looking at that WCAX Website. That Vt.stuff is way to the south of where I'm located. Here in Marshfield and adjacent Cabot and Plainfield on the upper reaches of the Winooski River, we had a terrific downpour on the Thursday before Memorial Day - 6 inches in a couple of hours -- which tore out a lot of our dirt back roads and flooded the downtowns of Montpelier and Barre. We're hoping it won't be repeated tonight.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1037. mbjjm
Times Square lots of people out now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody think that Jose could get a little stronger? Look at that deep blow-up of convection on Jose.



It could be as Irene dies the shear lessens over Jose. I have no idea. Jose surprised me. No way Jose!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
nostorminflorida has been banned.



THANKS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rain coming to SE Texas ?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PARADISE WITH RECORD 105+ TEMPS. EXPECT
A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS A MORE DEFINED
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE DAYS TO COME. UPPER RIDGE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK. AS THIS OCCURS
A TROF CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL TREK ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND WNW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS BRINGING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO MOST OF SE TX.
THINK THESE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF/WEAKNESS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE
SHOWING CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SITUATED DUE NORTH OF SE TX FRI-SAT
WITH THE TROF AXIS STRETCHING DOWN THE I-45 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY PLACE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EAST OF THAT AXIS...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ACROSS THE MOST OF REGION ESP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT`S STILL A GOOD 5 DAYS OUT AND DON`T
HAVE ENOUGH SKILL TO PINPOINT ITS LOCATION THIS FAR OUT (WHICH
MAKES A DIFFERENCE POP/QPF- WISE)...SO THINK THE CURRENT 30-50%
WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW. MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING ISSUES AS TO WHEN THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO RAIN CHANCES. FWIW - ECMWF IS
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY...SOMETHING
THE 06Z GFS WAS ALSO HINTING AT. 47
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1033. Gearsts
RUN everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Jeff Masters sir, I'm 12 years old and I know hurricanes very well. They are my passion. I keep a laminated 4x8 tracking chart in my house to track them. I admire your work and I would lov to start my own blog one day like yours. I dont know how that works, but if it isn't any trouble, could you please give me some tips? Thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1030. HarryMc
Still very windy in gusts southern NH. We have lost power 5 times now, average about half hour each. At least power and broadband has come back at least so far. Hope all are safe in the harder hit areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone have a link to confirm the Blenheim Covered Bridge washed away? that's my hometown. I love that place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening.

In addition to photos and videos posted in post #21 and post #141 I went to the Croton Dam today to check it out.

Very impressive overflow. Here are some pics, and a couple more pics depicting the general damage around the area, and four videos of the dam as well:


Excellent P451! Very nice..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


Nicely played!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
testing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
Please don't let the blog be messed up...Please no.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
News update for Virginia
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam gonna roll something up in a minute watch
Quoting FLdewey:
So DestinJeff get's banned for jokes, yet this kind of stuff is allowed to happen over, and over, and over again.

EPIC FAIL wunderblogadmin.
I knew something was up, no way he would have missed this nonsense. It's really disappointing because he does good here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can anyone theorize for me how Jose was able to form and is maintaining such a vigorous circulation with virtually no convection? Never seen such a thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Here's another one - yep nobody affected


Wow! That is sad. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If 92L becomes Katia, assuming nothing else develops, this tropical wave may become "Lee" in the Bay of Campeche. It does have SOME model support, but not nearly as much as 92L.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


Haha, good job, Doc. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so JeffMaster what do you think about 92L and may be some in pop up in the gulf this week i think the gfs and and two other mode show some in froming in the gulf
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yeah, at one point 75% of dominion customers in the Richmond area were without power, I was the lucky 25%. LOL


My Daughter in Reston, no power since 3:30 this morning.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting NoVaForecaster:
Anyway, Jose is generating new convection just south of the center:



He is doing well considering the shear he is under right now.


Unbelievable little thing. To develop into a TS under 40-50 knots of shear is astounding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Marco...heheheh...so cute
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Evening.


They are managing to get the final game of the Little League World Series today though in Williamsport. Good game (and series). :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters




LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
1009. mbjjm
some of the New York City obs now showing 30mph with 45mph gust
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Irene and Jose are basically a replay of Earl and Fiona of last season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Marco...so cute!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1006. ncstorm
Aerial view of Outer Banks Damage

WRAL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


Haha, good job, Doc. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody think that Jose could get a little stronger? Look at that deep blow-up of convection on Jose.



Well..I'll tell you one thing...If Jose becomes a hurricane...I will fall out of my chair and wear a tinfoil hat!

Jose will be the most unexpected 'cane of the season...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters


LOL...Have fun!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
1002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JeffMasters:
WRONGFORECAST banned. Fun game, like whack-a-mole.

Jeff Masters
keep the hammer handy may want to play again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
@DomVAPower
Dominion VA Power
834k of 1.2M customers affected by #Irene are currently w/o service. We thank you for your patience as we work through restoration.


Yeah, at one point 75% of dominion customers in the Richmond area were without power, I was the lucky 25%. LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814

Viewing: 1051 - 1001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.