Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting PcolaDan:


So glad you've been paying attention. Yep, nothing has happened, except the major flooding everywhere, ten of thousands without power, homes gone up the coast. Other than that, nothing.


You mean hundreds of thousands w/out power.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's what we were talking about, if my post didn't get eaten. Sometimes that these things form at all is the most amazing thing about it! :)


One day I was bored, watching the various radars around Texas and some satellites, and noticed a rotating thunderstorm right offshore from my house, headed up towards Corpus Christi. You could see it offshore from the beach, nice. So I emailed Brownsville NWS about my concern. Sure enough, Hurricane Humberto formed and that set a records for fastest rainstorm to tropical storm for quite a while. Easterly wave + Campeche low + surface coastal trough. Boom!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You keep changing the colors!!


Well, red was really for "Storm Alert" I guess you could call it. Now I'm changing them back to green. Eventually they will be blue again. LOL.
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Quoting gugi182:
What's the future of 92L is it heading for the northern islands as I've seen there's a ridge that will be in place in the northern islands later in the week is that true?


Too early to tell...It is still about a week away from any landmasses.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting FloatingCity:
The weather terrorist have struck again...had everybody frightened to death for nothing...


So glad you've been paying attention. Yep, nothing has happened, except the major flooding everywhere, ten of thousands without power, homes gone up the coast. Other than that, nothing.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1096. gugi182
What's the future of 92L is it heading for the northern islands as I've seen there's a ridge that will be in place in the northern islands later in the week is that true?
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Quoting AllStar17:
The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)




You keep changing the colors!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


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1093. TX2FL
TWC insinuating that 92L will not be a threat to the US. That leads me to believe that it will..smh..
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Quoting BiloxiBlues:
"Irene, I endured Katrina, I knew Katrina, I survived Katrina, Katrina was an enemy of mine. Irene, you're no Katrina"


Did you expect it to be?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Irene ain't looking so hot...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe it's because I have the latest version of every browser....but I run Windows and Linux. Mac? Yuck.


Ooops, sorry to offend you there :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MississippiWx, lol.


Lol...I can't take credit for saying I thought it would happen. I just said that I thought the NHC was being too pessimistic about its development chances.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
From Lake Charles

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL FINALLY START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAKNESS
ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO FINALLY BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE THIS SUMMER FOR
THE WHOLE REGION TO EXPERIENCE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WITH THE
COMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAINS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
FINALLY MODERATE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


Fingers crossed!
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Quoting TXInaSpin:



Please say it's so...


Ima hopin'. :)
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1086. Levi32
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Maybe it's cause you use a Mac? I dunno lol, this stuff is over my head.


Maybe it's because I have the latest version of every browser....but I run Linux and Windows. Mac? Yuck.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Chrome's where it's at.


Where what's at?

hehe :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
"Irene, I endured Katrina, I knew Katrina, I survived Katrina, Katrina was an enemy of mine. Irene, you're no Katrina"
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting Levi32:
Alright....gee. It works on every single browser I have lol. I replaced the table with an image...


Maybe it's cause you use a Mac? I dunno lol, this stuff is over my head.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Wow, everybody uses FireFox? I ditched Inept Explorer a long time ago, but I jumped to Google Chrome lol.


Chrome's where it's at.
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Blog is better :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
new york got vary vary luckey
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
1077. Levi32
Alright....gee. It works on every single browser I have lol. I replaced the table with an image...
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Quoting Levi32:


He, don't boo me. Wunderground doesn't play nice with HTML so I have to trick it.


lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Unbelievable little thing. To develop into a TS under 40-50 knots of shear is astounding.


That's what we were talking about, if my post didn't get eaten. Sometimes that these things form at all is the most amazing thing about it! :)
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wow...the blog got skinny. Is it on a diet or is this in significance to the size of Jose?
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Quoting Levi32:


My post shows up fine in my firefox...lol.
not on my firefox.
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Wow, everybody uses FireFox? I ditched Inept Explorer a long time ago, but I jumped to Google Chrome lol.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Doesn't look like it. Look at the cams here.




thats good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting TXInaSpin:



Please say it's so...
check post 1034. Houston NWS forecast
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1069. Levi32
Quoting P451:


Yeah...something isn't right. Boo.



He, don't boo me. Wunderground doesn't play nice with HTML so I have to trick it.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I swear Levi, you see if I need to use the 'Hide' button in the next 20 minutes....

:P


I can't even see the Hide button. Also on FF
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1066. ncstorm
Quoting Levi32:


My post shows up fine in my firefox...lol.


Not in my firefox..
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any damg reports from Times Square?


Doesn't look like it. Look at the cams here.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Levi32:


My post shows up fine in my firefox...lol.


I'm on firefox and I had to hide it.
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Quoting Levi32:


It works in my firefox...lol.


Well maybe my firefox isn't as good as your firefox :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Probably server slowness, related to deleting hundreds of banned user posts.


I hope we don't posts repeating again. It happened to me on Rood's blog. One of my posts repeated 940 times in 6 minutes. It was all straightened out later.
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I swear Levi, you see if I need to use the 'Hide' button in the next 20 minutes....

:P
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1059. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Levi!!! You cut the blog!!

And I am on firefox too.


My post shows up fine in my firefox...lol.
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Because if the winds are suddenly getting that strong and choppy in New Jersey then New York is still going to get a last kiss from Irene. There are a lot of people out right now. Not good.

Anyone on the Jersey coast care to confirm?
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1057. ncstorm
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1044 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA...

NORTHEAST CAPE FEAR NEAR BURGAW AFFECTING PENDER COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1056. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
The NAO this year was negative through July, and has popped up to neutral or slight-positive since mid-August. A similar flip occurred in 2008 during September, 2005 during August, 1996 during June, and 1955 during July. These flips usually only last a couple of months before going back negative, but they usually make at least either August or September positive, if not both months. This seems to contribute to the significant number of landfalls during the peaks of these seasons.

Monthly NAO values, from January (left) to December (right):

1955  -1.84  -1.12  -0.53  -0.42  -0.34  -1.10   1.76   1.07   0.32  -1.47  -1.29   0.17
1996 -0.12 -0.07 -0.24 -0.17 -1.06 0.56 0.67 1.02 -0.86 -0.33 -0.56 -1.41
1997 -0.49 1.70 1.46 -1.02 -0.28 -1.47 0.34 0.83 0.61 -1.70 -0.90 -0.96
1998 0.39 -0.11 0.87 -0.68 -1.32 -2.72 -0.48 -0.02 -2.00 -0.29 -0.28 0.87
1999 0.77 0.29 0.23 -0.95 0.92 1.12 -0.90 0.39 0.36 0.20 0.65 1.61
2000 0.60 1.70 0.77 -0.03 1.58 -0.03 -1.03 -0.29 -0.21 0.92 -0.92 -0.58
2001 0.25 0.45 -1.26 0.00 -0.02 -0.20 -0.25 -0.07 -0.65 -0.24 0.63 -0.83
2002 0.44 1.10 0.69 1.18 -0.22 0.38 0.62 0.38 -0.70 -2.28 -0.18 -0.94
2003 0.16 0.62 0.32 -0.18 0.01 -0.07 0.13 -0.07 0.01 -1.26 0.86 0.64
2004 -0.29 -0.14 1.02 1.15 0.19 -0.89 1.13 -0.48 0.38 -1.10 0.73 1.21
2005 1.52 -0.06 -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63 -0.98 -0.31 -0.44
2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14 0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 -2.24 0.44 1.34
2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34
2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28
2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93
2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85
2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51
Thanks for the great news! lol
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
From Lake Charles

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL FINALLY START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS OFF TO THE NE AND
OVER THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAKNESS
ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN INTO SUNDAY.

THIS LOOKS TO FINALLY BE THE FIRST REAL CHANCE THIS SUMMER FOR
THE WHOLE REGION TO EXPERIENCE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. WITH THE
COMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAINS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
FINALLY MODERATE WITH SOME UPPER 80S POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.



Please say it's so...
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Levi!!! You cut the blog!!

And I am on firefox too.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...judging by the nutiness of the tropics in the last 24 hours...who knows who will be named what? LOL

I still can't get over the fact that 91L becane Jose...who would have honestly thought this 24 hours ago?


MississippiWx, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Maybe the shear over Jose isn't really 40 kts. Maybe the shear is weaker than is analyzed. There's no recon or weather balloons actually there, right?
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1051. Levi32
The NAO this year was negative through July, and has popped up to neutral or slight-positive since mid-August. A similar flip occurred in 2008 during September, 2005 during August, 1996 during June, and 1955 during July. These flips usually only last a couple of months before going back negative, but they usually make at least either August or September positive, if not both months. This seems to contribute to the significant number of landfalls during the peaks of these seasons.

Monthly NAO values, from January (left) to December (right):

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.