Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting TXInaSpin:


Yeah Humberto.. The good ole' sniper hurricane..


Lol. Hadn't heard that one yet. :)
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What models develop the NW Caribbean AOI? TIA
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1149. rv1pop
Quoting Levi32:


Lol, I fixed it a while ago.
Thanks, I rebooted and cleared my cache (ccleaner) and now I can read the blog again. Keep up the AAA+ posting. And I am sorry if I come off negative sometimes, but my retirement was cut to 1/4 and luxuries like new computers are not yet happening.
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Maybe asked and answered, who decides to retire a storm name? or what group of people? Is there a committee, or a criteria?
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1147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


on going flood threat maybe for next 12 hrs or more as water runoff continues from storm
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1146. DFWjc
Quoting JLPR2:


Jose is nuts! XD
Formed despite 40knots of wind shear and now that it is slowly lowering we could see it strengthen a little more.

This + Irene's weirdly low barometric pressure makes 2011's storms weird. XD


Agreed, this whole season been some kinda of different..
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
From the looks of things flooding wise and the amount of real estate affected, I would expect tens of billions US damage.

Around noon today the estimate I read was $6 billion, inc Puerto Rico; however, that was before the flooding in Vermont and the various dam problems in MA & NY happened, so the figure is probably way too low. (Source was I forget which state's office of emergency mgmt, probably NY.) Regardless, the cost of Irene's recovery is going to be very high. I suspect we'll get better numbers tomorrow, once infrastructure has been evaluated and business owners get a chance to see what damage is there. Insurance adjusters are in for a busy few weeks.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Jose is nuts! XD
Formed despite 40knots of wind shear and now that it is slowly lowering we could see it strengthen a little more.

This + Irene's weirdly low barometric pressure makes 2011's storms weird. XD

lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Why the fascination with retiring the name IRENE? I am more concerned with helping those who need help, which mainly seems to be Puerto Rico to the Bahamas, and significant;y North Carolina. If the Grand Poobahs in some council want to retire the name, it is of little concern to me because I value real people more. 'Nuff said.
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1142. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


CIMSS Shear maps analyzed it around 20-30 knots.


Jose is nuts! XD
Formed despite 40knots of wind shear and now that it is slowly lowering we could see it strengthen a little more.

This + Irene's weirdly low barometric pressure makes 2011's storms weird. XD
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Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

I suppose you are referring to tropical characteristics such as convection close to the center. Considering she is extratropical now it shouldn't be a surprise that she doesn't look "good". But extratropical storms are normally just as strong as tropical storms, and irene is likely stronger than most tropical storms so she still needs to be taken seriously.

Until the system completely dissipates it should be taken as a threat.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! Good call Sam. :) I got up close and personal with Humberto's BOOM! about 2 o'clock in the morning. Lol. Well, I stayed in the house and watched the trees bend over one end of our house every time the lightning flashed after he blew the transformers. That was a wild ride! Luckily the only damage we received from that one was a broken water pipe from an up rooted tree. Ike finished the tree off almost exactly a year later. These things are amazing. :)


Yeah Humberto.. The good ole' sniper hurricane..
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1139. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


CIMSS Shear maps analyzed it around 20-30 knots.


WOW! He's a fighter alright...
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's what we were talking about, if my post didn't get eaten. Sometimes that these things form at all is the most amazing thing about it! :)


You notice with Irene gone that tropical moisture has reversed course and is now streaming into the GOM?

TCFP still has BOC blue on top of purple, and

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mo vies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html

there is a little sneaky thing just west of Cancun spinning up. TX/GOM MJO is now UP, even if it's not for the rest of the ATL.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Irene ain't looking so hot...

I suppose you are referring to tropical characteristics such as convection close to the center. Considering she is extratropical now it shouldn't be a surprise that she doesn't look "good". But extratropical storms are normally just as strong as tropical storms, and irene is likely stronger than most tropical storms so she still needs to be taken seriously.
Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
USGS waterwatch page is overloaded.
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I'm worried about 2 fellow bloggers. Anyone here from Grandpa and that user njCat3cane or something like that? Last night on the blog the nj guy said things were crazy with water running everywhere. He stayed in Atlantic City when there was mandatory evacuations. I hope his decision to stay didn't cost him his life and that he learned his lesson.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting DFWjc:


What's the shear around Jose right now?


CIMSS Shear maps analyzed it around 20-30 knots.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Friends in Vt say Brattleboro is underwater, and roads are washing away, rivers are flooding roadways and many towns are stranded with no roads. Rivers are overflowing. Many have no elec. I lived in Vt for 30 yrs and never saw a hurricane pass over. Has it ever happened before?
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1132. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Levi, Jose didn't die...it strengthened. :(


What's the shear around Jose right now?
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What has been going on in the Caribbean? It has looked like this ever since Hurricane Irene left the area.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1130. DFWjc
Quoting rv1pop:

Yes, but I need to add 528 MB in addons in order to see it and I only have 870+ MB left on my drive therefore it would remove my virtual memory and stop me anyway. I may have to ignore you to watch the rest of the blog ---- and you are one of my favorite contributors. -- PLEASE!!


What kind of memory do you need? I'll be more than happy to donate some to ya.. I fix/build computers
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes they did even those that are suffering damage as we type imagine something ten times worse we could of been witness to the stacking of bodies today but it did not go that way which in my book is ok


there's more to New York than the city. Upstate is in trouble right now.
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Given all the infrastructure damage, major flooding, tree damage, etc. I can see this storm costing folks in the US well over $2 Billion.

Also have to factor in the sheer number of people impacted by Irene. 70+ million people at least.

Those 70+ million people won't want to hear the name "Irene" associated with any storm in the future.
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Connecticut River by Sunderland, MA.



Heard reports that the river is creating flooding in Greenfield, MA, where exits off of Rt. 91 are blocked and cars are reported underwater in parts of the city. Ran into a woman who needed to get to her apartment complex via an alternative route into the city. The apartments are being evacuated due to flooding.

The river has risen by some 20 feet in a 12 hour period and has not yet crested.



For New England this is not over yet.
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Quoting SamWells:


One day I was bored, watching the various radars around Texas and some satellites, and noticed a rotating thunderstorm right offshore from my house, headed up towards Corpus Christi. You could see it offshore from the beach, nice. So I emailed Brownsville NWS about my concern. Sure enough, Hurricane Humberto formed and that set a records for fastest rainstorm to tropical storm for quite a while. Easterly wave + Campeche low + surface coastal trough. Boom!


Wow! Good call Sam. :) I got up close and personal with Humberto's BOOM! about 2 o'clock in the morning. Lol. Well, I stayed in the house and watched the trees bend over one end of our house every time the lightning flashed after he blew the transformers. That was a wild ride! Luckily the only damage we received from that one was a broken water pipe from an up rooted tree. Ike finished the tree off almost exactly a year later. These things are amazing. :)
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol, I fixed it a while ago.


Levi, Jose didn't die...it strengthened. :(
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
1124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
new york got vary vary luckey
yes they did even those that are suffering damage as we type imagine something ten times worse we could of been witness to the stacking of bodies today but it did not go that way which in my book is ok
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1123. Levi32
Quoting rv1pop:

Yes, but I need to add 528 MB in addons in order to see it and I only have 870 MB left on my drive therefore it would remove my virtual memory and stop me anyway. I may have to ignore you to watch the rest of the blog ---- and you are one of my favorite contributors. -- PLEASE!!


Lol, I fixed it a while ago.
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From the looks of things flooding wise and the amount of real estate affected, I would expect tens of billions US damage.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Lol...Specifics are key in this blog and I wasn't specific. I meant top $1 billion in the United States...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


In the US?


Oh, I do not know about that. All I know is that it has caused a total of $3 billion in damage. Most of it probably came from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Wow, everybody uses FireFox? I ditched Inept Explorer a long time ago, but I jumped to Google Chrome lol.
FF then Chrome now Sea Monkey.

When posting an image, I usually add width="98%"
Seems to work every time.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Irene is no Katrina, but that doesn't even matter. Irene has killed people who wouldn't have died otherwise and has done a lot of damage. I still imagine Irene will top $1 Billion in damages. To some people, Irene is to them as Katrina is to us.


Already did in the Caribbean, could top 3.1 billion in the Caribbean.

There has NEVER been an instant where a storm has caused >1& billion dollars in damages in the Caribbean islands and not been retired. That is because they are not as wealthy as the United States. 3.1 billion is a LOT. Damages in the USA could be a lot too.

Irene will be retired. I mentioned in my blog that a good replacement name would be Ianna or Ivory. The question is, what is the extent of the damage in the USA?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting SamWells:


One day I was bored, watching the various radars around Texas and some satellites, and noticed a rotating thunderstorm right offshore from my house, headed up towards Corpus Christi. You could see it offshore from the beach, nice. So I emailed Brownsville NWS about my concern. Sure enough, Hurricane Humberto formed and that set a records for fastest rainstorm to tropical storm for quite a while. Easterly wave + Campeche low + surface coastal trough. Boom!


I went to bed with another day of teaching ahead of me. Woke up to Humberto and no school. Talk about a surprise.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
1115. rv1pop
Quoting Levi32:


My post shows up fine in my firefox...lol.

Yes, but I need to add 528 MB in addons in order to see it and I only have 870+ MB left on my drive therefore it would remove my virtual memory and stop me anyway. I may have to ignore you to watch the rest of the blog ---- and you are one of my favorite contributors. -- PLEASE!!
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Here in NH never lost power.....not even a flicker during the storm. The basement is also dry.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Irene is no Katrina, but that doesn't even matter. Irene has killed people who wouldn't have died otherwise and has done a lot of damage. I still imagine Irene will top $1 Billion in damages. To some people, Irene is to them as Katrina is to us.

Well, seeing damage to The Bahamas/Puerto Rico combined have reached $3.1 BILLION, plus the possible $200-$400 million to New Jersey and God knows what other places, Irene could breach the $4 billion mark.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Irene ain't looking so hot...
gone extra tropical now nothing but a memory and reality for some things played out well considering how bad it could have been
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Quoting AllStar17:


I did notice before you had a red alert avatar and have since changed it back to a blue avatar. Does that have any meaning?

I have changed my avatar several times now. It was green then red and now green again.....and the meaning behind it is to match the images I post.


I use blue to represent a landfalling storm, or a storm that has made landfall. I use red to represent a storm approaching landfall.

Correction: I won't use red after this, because there isn't a storm approaching landfall. I'll use green or something, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
92L looks pretty impressive should see 80 to 90% at 8 Pm TWO, and TD 12 Tonight at 11 PM or Tomorrow morning
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


You mean hundreds of thousands w/out power.

Yes, that's what I meant. Fingers were ahead of the brain. Not an uncommon occurrence for me/ :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, it has already topped $3 billion in damages.


In the US?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In which case my avatar will go red ;)


I did notice before you had a red alert avatar and have since changed it back to a blue avatar. Does that have any meaning?

I have changed my avatar several times now. It was green then red and now green again.....and the meaning behind it is to match the images I post.
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Quoting BiloxiBlues:
"Irene, I endured Katrina, I knew Katrina, I survived Katrina, Katrina was an enemy of mine. Irene, you're no Katrina"


Thank you Senator Benson :P
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Irene is no Katrina, but that doesn't even matter. Irene has killed people who wouldn't have died otherwise and has done a lot of damage. I still imagine Irene will top $1 Billion in damages. To some people, Irene is to them as Katrina is to us.


It has already topped $3 billion in damages.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting BiloxiBlues:
"Irene, I endured Katrina, I knew Katrina, I survived Katrina, Katrina was an enemy of mine. Irene, you're no Katrina"


Irene is no Katrina, but that doesn't even matter. Irene has killed people who wouldn't have died otherwise and has done a lot of damage. I still imagine Irene will top $1 Billion in damages. To some people, Irene is to them as Katrina is to us.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Well, red was really for "Storm Alert" I guess you could call it. Now I'm changing them back to green. Eventually they will be blue again. LOL.


In which case my avatar will go red ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Man, can't you take a joke? And yes, the national media hyped it as the storm of storms.
quote class='blogquote'>Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Did you expect it to be?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


So glad you've been paying attention. Yep, nothing has happened, except the major flooding everywhere, ten of thousands without power, homes gone up the coast. Other than that, nothing.


You mean hundreds of thousands w/out power.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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