Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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It is so hot here now Heat thunderstorms have formed in the very dry air in the Hill Country, not much rain hitting the ground is what I am hearing? How can thunderstorms form with humidity being so low?
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1199. IMA
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is 111 with very low humidity and strong hot winds blowing here now, desert conditions, when you go out in the wind it is brutal. These kind of conditions happen at the end of a heatwave.

I refer to it as an outdoor convection oven
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Sad...but not unexpected...inaccessible shelters....Link
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Me thinks that Irene just made landfall in Canada as a tropical storm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting IMA:


I'll believe it when I see it, summerland. Don't want to get my hopes up again. lol 107 right now, it's horrible out there!

It is. Did you see they raised tomorrow's forecast high to 111°? But Thursday's supposed to be only 93. I know how unpredictable these things are -- how many storms have come down just to Bulverde or New Braunfels and stopped on our doorstep? But I'm hoping!
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in NY

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting mcluvincane:
So, Irene is gone, with very minimal damage to structures. Thank goodness she weakend before landfall. I wonder if we will see another threat to the east coast this year. Some bloggers have posted that if anything came off of Africa then the east coast was open for business. I don't see it personaly. Looks like a recurve pattern is setting up and probably stay that way. Anything that threatens Conus will have to come from the Caribbean to the gulf IMO.


Irene is an example of why that theory is already wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
It is 111 with very low humidity and strong hot winds blowing here now, desert conditions, when you go out in the wind it is brutal. These kind of conditions happen at the end of a heatwave.
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So, Irene is gone, with very minimal damage to structures. Thank goodness she weakend before landfall. I wonder if we will see another threat to the east coast this year. Some bloggers have posted that if anything came off of Africa then the east coast was open for business. I don't see it personaly. Looks like a recurve pattern is setting up and probably stay that way. Anything that threatens Conus will have to come from the Caribbean to the gulf IMO.
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1191. JLPR2
Quoting DFWjc:


Looks like a Black Hole in space...


Yes, really nice LLC.

Therefore Jose is the 5th storm to form in the Subtropical Atl.
This is the year of the shipping lane spinners.
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Video out of Brattelboro, VT pretty scary (CNN)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


What models develop the NW Caribbean AOI?


None of them, really. The NAM/GFS/Euro hint at a little development, but none of them make it anything significant. 18z NAM possibly had a weak TD in the SW Gulf.
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Quoting twincomanche:
It will be at least another day before companies that estimate insurance losses will come up with a total for Irene. So far, insurance industry estimates give a very rough tally of between $3 billion to $5 billion in insured losses. Of course, the total economic impact could be much larger."

That seems reasonable, although I wonder how much of that 3-5 insurers will actually pay out (Katrina's avg was something like $.35 on the dollar, IIRC). There's a ton of messed up public infrastructure that will be covered by taxpayers, plus losses of the uninsured that can be alleviated somewhat by the Red Cross and public assistance programs. For such an enormous storm, such a broad path, and such a highly populated area, it's kind of a miracle if the end-cost is anywhere near this low.
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1187. bappit
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! Good call Sam. :) I got up close and personal with Humberto's BOOM! about 2 o'clock in the morning. Lol. Well, I stayed in the house and watched the trees bend over one end of our house every time the lightning flashed after he blew the transformers. That was a wild ride! Luckily the only damage we received from that one was a broken water pipe from an up rooted tree. Ike finished the tree off almost exactly a year later. These things are amazing. :)

If Sam's story were true, I don't think I could have watched Humberto form on the Galveston radar.
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Poor Jose. An ACE of 0.24 and he's nekkid. He is probably feeling some self-esteem issues.
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Be back later
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Quoting redwagon:


You notice with Irene gone that tropical moisture has reversed course and is now streaming into the GOM?

TCFP still has BOC blue on top of purple, and

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mo vies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html

there is a little sneaky thing just west of Cancun spinning up. TX/GOM MJO is now UP, even if it's not for the rest of the ATL.


Hmmm? No I didn't notice that. Couldn't get your link to work but I see what you mean. That could get interesting quick in the BOC. Good catch. Probably what the discussions were talking about.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
GFS at 27 hours:



What models develop the NW Caribbean AOI?
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1182. IMA
Quoting summerland:

Yes, this is where this Thursday's gorgeous 40% chance for rain here in San Antonio is coming from. Cannot wait! Give us a nice, fat open wave with 3 or 4 days of slow, steady rain. It'll be hell on my allergies, but so worth it.


I'll believe it when I see it, summerland. Don't want to get my hopes up again. lol 107 right now, it's horrible out there!
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1181. mbjjm
51 mph at Jfk, 56mph at Staten Islandis this the backside of Irene or pressure gradient
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GFS at 27 hours:

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1179. DFWjc
Quoting rv1pop:
Thank you, I will WUmail you. I am not sure what I need or how much more HD space I can reclaim.My son-in-law got a new computer and gave me his old one. Now my old one is doing duty as a station (98620 Badger Gulch) on wunderground. This computer has a serious over heat problem also that I need to solve. A small external fan is keeping it alive for now.


Just let me know and I'll be more than happy to help a fellow WU poster...
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2011 Season:
Arlene~ 65 Mph 993 MB, 25 Deaths; ACE 1.63
Bret~ 65 Mph 996 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE 2.95
Cindy~ 60 Mph 1000 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE 1.84
Don~ 50 Mph 998 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE 1.5
Emily~ 50 Mph 1003 MB, 5 Deaths; ACE 1.99
Franklin~ 45 Mph 1004 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE .4
Gert~ 60 Mph 1000 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE 1.6
Harvey~ 60 Mph 994 MB, 3 Deaths; ACE 1.24
Irene~ 120 Mph 942 MB, 12 Deaths; ACE 20.2
Jose~ 45 Mph 1007 MB, 0 Deaths; ACE .24

Season Totals So far:
Deaths: 45
ACE Total: 33.4
Strongest Storm: Irene, 120 Mph(Cat. 3) 942 MB
Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 1
Major Hurricanes: 1
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Quoting victoriahurricane:
I'm worried about 2 fellow bloggers. Anyone here from Grandpa and that user njCat3cane or something like that? Last night on the blog the nj guy said things were crazy with water running everywhere. He stayed in Atlantic City when there was mandatory evacuations. I hope his decision to stay didn't cost him his life and that he learned his lesson.

I had wondered about Grandpa too, but he stopped posting right after his decision to go to his daughter's house, so I am assuming he doesn't go online at his current location.
I hope he and the NJ guy are both ok.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jose nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD

MY EYES!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
1175. DFWjc
Quoting JLPR2:
Jose nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD


Looks like a Black Hole in space...
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Boston AFD

IT IS IMPERATIVE TO REALIZE THAT THE NEW ENGLAND REGION IS NOT OUT
OF THE WOODS YET AS IRENE LIFTS OUT OF THE RGN. WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM OUT OF THE S/W WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD
RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...BLOCKING ROADS AND/OR
DAMAGING INFRASTRUCTURE. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HIGH SWELLS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH SHORELINE...
WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE AND BEACH EROSION.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
TropicalAnalystwx13



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...Didn't know 92l was under this much shear until I just checked. It continues to organize despite high wind shear of 20-40 knots. When wind shear weakens to 5-10 knots in a couple of days, WATCH OUT!





him i dont think wind shear is that high over 92L lol its not tha far S lol


here what the NHC says


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS



the nhc says this


ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE



wish means if wind shear was 20 too 40kt they would not have gave 92L a high ch of 70% in the next 48hr too from in too a TD w
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1172. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:


You mean Jose.


You are fast. XD Took me seconds to modify that post.
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1171. ncstorm
Here's a look at peak reported wind gusts throughout the area. Gusts may have been higher. These numbers are preliminary and are subject to change.
PHOTO GALLERY

Click here to see photos of damage caused by Irene.


94mph Jacksonville
72mph Masonboro Inlet
70mph Wrightsville Beach
70mph Holly Shelter Game Land
68mph Bald Head Island
66mph Supply
66mph Wilmington International Airport
62mph Springmaid Pier
58mph Topsail Beach
58mph Bladen Lakes
53mph Southport
52mph Sneads Ferry
48mph Whiteville
47mph Sunny Point
49mph Myrtle beach
43mph Lumberton


Gusts from Eastern North Carolina (Source : National Weather Service, Morehead City)

115mph Cedar Island
88mph Hatteras
85mph Fort Macon
79mph Buxton
78mph Cape Lookout
78mph Oregon Inlet
77mph Avon
76mph Frisco Woods
74mph New Bern
67mph Beaufort
68mph Morehead City
69mph Cherry Point
69mph Salvo
66mph Manteo
66mph Alligator Bridge
61mph New River
56mph Greenville
45mph Washington
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13436
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z SHIPS only analyzed 10 knots of upper-level winds. The CIMSS graph can be deceiving.


Miami what models develop the NW Caribbean AOI?
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1169. rv1pop
Quoting DFWjc:


What kind of memory do you need? I'll be more than happy to donate some to ya.. I fix/build computers
Thank you, I will WUmail you. I am not sure what I need or how much more HD space I can reclaim.My son-in-law got a new computer and gave me his old one. Now my old one is doing duty as a station (98620 Badger Gulch) on wunderground. This computer has a serious over heat problem also that I need to solve. A small external fan is keeping it alive for now.
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Wow. Newark Liberty is reporting it's strongest winds and gusts so far. Top speed at 65 km/h and gusts at 82 for 5:30pm.

If those winds and gusts hold up, coupled with the flooding and saturated ground. :( Irene is so not done.

The media seems to completely ignore the dangers after the eye has moved out because there is no rain on er south side. It's like, "the eye and rain are gone north, it's safe to go outside now!" I wonder how many people are going to get hurt.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...Didn't know 92l was under this much shear until I just checked. It continues to organize despite high wind shear of 20-40 knots. When wind shear weakens to 5-10 knots in a couple of days, WATCH OUT!

18z SHIPS only analyzed 10 knots of upper-level winds. The CIMSS graph can be deceiving.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jose nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD


Ahh!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting tropicfreak:
What models develop the NW Caribbean AOI? TIA


I don't think any models flat out develop it, but some ensemble members, particularly of the CMC, show quite a lot of rainfall in the GoM.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Jose nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD


No way Jose!!! Get some cloud cover!!!
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Quoting JLPR2:
92L nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD


You mean Jose.
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1161. hahaguy
This year will go down as one of or if not the weirdest hurricane season on record .
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1160. JLPR2
Jose nude once again. What an indecent storm. xD
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REPOST
The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow...Didn't know 92l was under this much shear until I just checked. It continues to organize despite high wind shear of 20-40 knots. When wind shear weakens to 5-10 knots in a couple of days, WATCH OUT!



If Jose can then 92L can. LOL
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Quoting rv1pop:
Thanks, I rebooted and cleared my cache (ccleaner) and now I can read the blog again. Keep up the AAA+ posting. And I am sorry if I come off negative sometimes, but my retirement was cut to 1/4 and luxuries like new computers are not yet happening.
LOL, my computer is so old it takes up a 10' X 10' room and still required punch cards. Yep, the economy has tightened my belt too.
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Link Awesome photos!
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Quoting redwagon:


You notice with Irene gone that tropical moisture has reversed course and is now streaming into the GOM?

TCFP still has BOC blue on top of purple, and

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mo vies/g8irn/g8irnjava.html

there is a little sneaky thing just west of Cancun spinning up. TX/GOM MJO is now UP, even if it's not for the rest of the ATL.

Yes, this is where this Thursday's gorgeous 40% chance for rain here in San Antonio is coming from. Cannot wait! Give us a nice, fat open wave with 3 or 4 days of slow, steady rain. It'll be hell on my allergies, but so worth it.
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Cape getting high winds now

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
FALMOUTH LGT RAIN 68 64 88 S35G54 29.19S
HYANNIS CLOUDY 72 64 78 SW37G63 29.22 HAZE
CHATHAM CLOUDY 74 65 73 S26G47 29.27F
NANTUCKET CLOUDY 72 64 76 S38G51 29.30R HAZE
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Wow...Didn't know 92l was under this much shear until I just checked. It continues to organize despite high wind shear of 20-40 knots. When wind shear weakens to 5-10 knots in a couple of days, WATCH OUT!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting TXInaSpin:


Yeah Humberto.. The good ole' sniper hurricane..


Lol. Hadn't heard that one yet. :)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.