Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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1301. hahaguy
Quoting ncstorm:


CNN and TWC are not reporting these events..is there another news network that is or this only local media outlets?


Try msnbc
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Quoting MississippiWx:


An area of convection that developed from upper level divergence.


I wonder if it's hindering the storm.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
Quoting PcolaDan:
The Catskills are catching hell!!!!!

Hurricane Irene: Live News Feed for the Catskills
http://www.watershedpost.com/2011/hurricane-irene -live-news-feed-catskills


There are some confirmed deaths in Pennsylvania and upper New York.
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1298. ncstorm
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
This is worse than most realize. Could you imagine if this came in @ cat 3???


CNN and TWC are not reporting these events..is there another news network that is or this only local media outlets?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14412
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The blog is transitioning from IRENE to 92L.
Personally, I wish I could put all the 92L posts on ignore for a few hours anyway. The effects of IRENE are ongoing and immediate. 92L is a speculation 6 days away from "possibly" hitting anyone. What's going on in Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon Maine and points North are with us right now.


Ignore if you must, but 92L is a tropical topic and the GFS model is currently running. Once it is done, most of the conversation will transition back to Irene.
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I heard last night possibly one upside is that this storm might have put out the fire in the Great Dismal Swamp. Doe that seem plausible from when Irene was over VA?
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The blog is transitioning from IRENE to 92L.
Personally, I wish I could put all the 92L posts on ignore for a few hours anyway. The effects of IRENE are ongoing and immediate. 92L is a speculation 6 days away from "possibly" hitting anyone. What's going on in NY, CT., Pa., Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon Maine and points North are with us right now.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


159...yep



Most likely follow 92L's path OTS
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The Catskills are catching hell!!!!!

Hurricane Irene: Live News Feed for the Catskills
http://www.watershedpost.com/2011/hurricane-irene -live-news-feed-catskills
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1292. rv1pop
Quoting IMA:

I refer to it as an outdoor convection oven
That is what our area is called. 100.6 and only 6 MPH wind humidity at 19%. 2000 feet above sea level, 1300 feet above John Day Dam on the Columbia River. Too Hot.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What on Earth is that south of Jose?


An area of convection that developed from upper level divergence.

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This is worse than most realize. Could you imagine if this came in @ cat 3???
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Quoting ncstorm:
the 18Z NOGAPS is running and Ive noticed its been depicting a home grown storm off the SE coast for several runs now..wants to bring it back to GA/FL..



WCAX News Anchor Kristin Kelly: Have you seen anything like this before?

Bill Hunt: Now, I spoke to a guy who is 96 and he said the last time he'd seen anything like this was in 1938 and we're already past that level. We have a building marked downtown the flood level from 1938, and it's above that.



Incredible.
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1288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


lots and lots of water powerful thing water
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09L/ET/I
MARK advisory point
72.8W 42.7N



11L/TS/I
MARK advisory point
65.7W 33.2N


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
1286. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What on Earth is that south of Jose?



That would be Jose's butt. :)
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What on Earth is that south of Jose?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
I suppose one could say every hurricane has a bluish-silver lining.

In Southern Ontario, clouds have changed to stratocumulus and cirrus, with winds occasionally gusting past 40 km/h. It's a pleasant day, 21C and perfect for an afternoon jog.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Is that another storm forming off Africa? *gasp*



159...yep

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, see the next comment.


I didn't saw the TCFA posted before I did.
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1280. ncstorm
Quoting PcolaDan:
@DonMeltz
Don Meltz
RT @TWCBreaking: Nat'l Guard helicopters dispatched to rescue people off roofs of buildings in Fleischmanns, NY. #irene #catskills


sounds like katrina..this is getting worse by the minute..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14412
Quoting MississippiWx:
147...



Is that another storm forming off Africa? *gasp*

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Odd, I'd think a TCFW would be issued but I guess its not time yet.
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@DonMeltz
Don Meltz
RT @TWCBreaking: Nat'l Guard helicopters dispatched to rescue people off roofs of buildings in Fleischmanns, NY. #irene #catskills
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting summerland:

Yes, this is where this Thursday's gorgeous 40% chance for rain here in San Antonio is coming from. Cannot wait! Give us a nice, fat open wave with 3 or 4 days of slow, steady rain. It'll be hell on my allergies, but so worth it.


I resolve to Tango in the streets with my neighbors when the rains come.

(I've actually never tangoed, but I feel it's gonna be crazy when I do))(Like Mr. & Mrs. Smith crazy:))

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1275. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
There's a pinhole eye in his naked swirl. LOL


Awesome circulation, if Irene's outflow weren't there then Jose would probably be a hurricane.
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147...

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Quoting MississippiWx:
111...Moving north now. The models have been persistent on a trough getting caught between the Northeast US ridge and the A/B ridge. It creates just enough of a weakness to bring potential Katia northward.



The models have also been developing a possible tropical cyclone because of a trough-split scenario (from the aforementioned trough).
and RAIN in Texas
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Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

all that wasted wind energy ... Irene would be a wind farm owners wet dream, assuming they put their turbines in the right place of course.


Turbines shut down in winds over 40-45 mph, or if there is too much vibration in the supporting structure.
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1271. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T.C.F.A.



SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.
//


Could be our first CV storm of the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxdrone:
To the people who claim that Irene was hyped, I wonder how many deaths, floods and damage they were hoping to see.
Quote from WCAX.com (VT)
We got the generator on and stay put. We're trapped here. There's an emergency shelter set up at the school, but I don't believe they got food into it before the roads were blocked off. So can't get rescue or anything. The propane tanks have been washing down through the village and I've heard one or two houses on Main Street have washed downriver as well.
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Quoting chicagowatcher:

Funny, I was thinking the same thing. There was an initial thought that NOLA was lucky because Kat weakened before landfall. Then as that Monday wore on, it became more and more apparent that a catastrophe was occurring. I wonder what the Vermont story will turn out to be. Many prayers for those folks.


People keep thinking once the wind is gone things will be fine. All that rain has to go somewhere. Some places here in NC got over 19" of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.


lol, see the next comment.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
1267. emcf30


This was this morning. The news is reporting it is much worst now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.


Edit: Repost
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@cnnbrk
CNN Breaking News
The 3 major airports around New York City -- Newark Liberty, LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy will reopen Monday #Irene on.cnn.com/nsG3On
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1264. hamla
strong>Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Many communities in Southern Vermont are flooded; Brattleboro, Wilmington and Bennington are all underwater.

its really bad up there and all the folks that say irene was a duh are sadly mistaken.inland flooding could be in n.e for quite a while
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There's a pinhole eye in his naked swirl. LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
1262. wxdrone
To the people who claim that Irene was hyped, I wonder how many deaths, floods and damage they were hoping to see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T.C.F.A.



SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.
//
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.
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135...

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Quoting P451:


That's just crazy. This thing's wind field must be unfathomable right now.


We're gusting to 60 again occasionally here in NY again. There's been a lot of sirens since the wind picked back up. Hope nothing too bad has happened. Branches are still going down around here.

Temperature has dropped to 67 heading for 55 or below and it's real nice out. Windows are open and will stay that way all week at least. It may be the end of A/C not that I used much this August since the big storms broke that heat wave's back (all 3 days of it here).

all that wasted wind energy ... Irene would be a wind farm owners wet dream, assuming they put their turbines in the right place of course.
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Quoting brianc:
According to CNN, Vermont's experiencing a great deal of flooding. Reports were that some towns "were completely underwater," though I don't know how credible that report is...looking at the images...it's beginning to remind me of the hours after Katrina when everyone was saying NOLA just got a glancing blow...before the levees broke. I hope not...but the images of rushing waters on TV look pretty ominous. BTW, they spoke with the Emergency Management person from Vermont...a Mark somehting...he didn't seem to be getting the news that his state is in the midst of a very dangerous emergency...seemed sort of blase.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing. There was an initial thought that NOLA was lucky because Kat weakened before landfall. Then as that Monday wore on, it became more and more apparent that a catastrophe was occurring. I wonder what the Vermont story will turn out to be. Many prayers for those folks.
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1253. Oct8
Speaking of the power of water. The shape of the SE coast it Mother Nature whittling away with her hurricane water chisel for millions of years
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111...Moving north now. The models have been persistent on a trough getting caught between the Northeast US ridge and the A/B ridge. It creates just enough of a weakness to bring potential Katia northward.



The models have also been developing a possible tropical cyclone because of a trough-split scenario (from the aforementioned trough).
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Quoting P451:


No way!

I forgot about Irene's bad gas....which gave birth to Jose.



You thought I was talking about Irene? No..I don't think Irene's wind field extends THAT far out ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.