Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting P451:


Exactly. Early runs on any system are to be generally discounted and used as a rough guide only.

Early model runs also tend to have a northern bias to them that changes over time.



Then why do you keep posting them?
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Shock! For a change the news outlets are actually under reporting. Maybe they don't know what's going on???
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8-10 Day 500MB mean. Notice the Euro showing a stronger trough during the 12z Run.

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1348. wxdrone
Quoting P451:


Wind damage of Andrew, Storm surge of Camille, and death toll of Galveston 1900.



Yup. It's sad that this is what it would take to get their attention.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Also, I'm leaning more towards the possibility of them staying separate entities, seems to me like enough distance between the two.
David and Federico ,August 29, 1979,pass very close to us, tomorrow is the anniversary, an were pretty close too. They both affected us in Puerto Rico a few days appart,Federico gave a direct hit but less powerful than hurricane David.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
Just saw a large (10-15 trucks) convoy of power crews from Ohio Edison power company on the PA turnpike headed east.
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
1344. wxdrone
Quoting chicagowatcher:
Quote from WCAX.com (VT)
We got the generator on and stay put. We're trapped here. There's an emergency shelter set up at the school, but I don't believe they got food into it before the roads were blocked off. So can't get rescue or anything. The propane tanks have been washing down through the village and I've heard one or two houses on Main Street have washed downriver as well.


Sounds like a serious storm to me...
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Quoting P451:


Exactly. Early runs on any system are to be generally discounted and used as a rough guide only.

Early model runs also tend to have a northern bias to them that changes over time.



Yes both of you are right.
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1342. ncstorm
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The Catskills are home for me, where I grew up. My sister is okay, has electric, etc. But all around her, the other villages, there is massage flooding, people being rescued from a hotel. 209 is closed, which is one of the roads to get from one village to another. One whole village is being evacuated due to the Neversink overflowing. One person dead so far, caught in a car and rescue couldn't get to them.


from the video I just saw, it looks terrible there..I'm glad your sister is okay
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The blog is transitioning from IRENE to 92L.
Personally, I wish I could put all the 92L posts on ignore for a few hours anyway. The effects of IRENE are ongoing and immediate. 92L is a speculation 6 days away from "possibly" hitting anyone. What's going on in NY, CT., Pa., Vermont, Massachusetts, and soon Maine and points North are with us right now.



Thank you. We are still experiencing Irene here in Vermont, and there has been sorrow here today.

We are still getting emergency storm reports interrupting regular television shows. The wind gusts are impressive, and the lights keep flickering...
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1340. Levi32
92L looks asymmetrical but decent.

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Quoting WthrBearSF:
One last thing about the negativity being expressed on this blog, and I'll leave it be.

Yes, when a hurricane hits land, there is a certain thrill about being able to see it's fury. The wind, the rain, and the waves. But as I've gotten older, and especially since watching this blog since 2005, I've come to appreciate the other end so much more. On the other side of that thrill are human lives, pets and livestock, homes and churches and businesses and schools, and countless jobs. One hurricane making landfall wrecks havoc on thousands of lives.

I, for one, was praying in my own way with all my energy that Irene weaken or go offshore. Irene could have been catastrophic in a manner that would have been devastating to our entire country. Thankfully, Irene weakened, and we've been spared the worst. But lives were lost, from young to old, and as-yet-untold damage has been done.

I'm filled with gratitude for Dr. M and this blog, for the NHC and all the weather forecasters whose main concern was the safety of others, and for those who constructively participate in this blog giving their time, knowledge, and energy to educate and protect.

I truly feel sorry for those of you who are disappointed Irene didn't do more damage, for those of you pointing judgmental fingers at the NHC, and for those of you who feel duped. I'm happy that in spite of this, you will still be protected in the future by the army of people who do their jobs to the best of their ability regardless of the nastiness thrown their way on a regular basis.

To those who've lost anyone or anything during Irene, I hope your path forward is filled with caring people and support as you recover during this difficult time.


This is a great post!

Hurricanes bring devastation and disrupt lives being in this field i for one enjoy the meteorological aspect these storms bring and dont mind if they all stay out to sea.
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1337. bappit
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
P451 the wind gust in Bermuda was from Tropical Storm Jose.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
For those who use Twitter (and those who don't) search for different things and you will find LOTS of information about affected areas. Example - search catskills - you find other links to info, it's bad.


The Catskills are home for me, where I grew up. My sister is okay, has electric, etc. But all around her, the other villages, there is massage flooding, people being rescued from a hotel. 209 is closed, which is one of the roads to get from one village to another. One whole village is being evacuated due to the Neversink overflowing. One person dead so far, caught in a car and rescue couldn't get to them.
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Overhyping a storm is as bad, if not WORSE than underhyping the storm. How seriously will the people that left NC and all up the eastern seaboard be the next time a storm approaches.

don't mistake and make an irresponsible comment that people who are saying the storm was overhyped by stating we wanted more death and destruction. That's careless. I wanted Irene to curve out to sea and knew it would weaken after Dr. Masters alluded it would at least not strengthen and was looking ragged.
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1333. bwat
Quoting violet312s:


Great Dismal Swamp is right on the border of NC and VA and yes, it got the rain that it needed to knock the thing out.
Believe it or not, there are still hotspots, just saw it on wavy tv 10. Side note, my power is still out, but my internet is back. The generator is nice for keeping the fridge cold and watching tv, but you never know how much you miss a/c till its gone!
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1332. ncstorm
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I am getting my info here. Fact checking the links and video doesn't seem to lie. would be a tough photoshop anyway.



HLN is actually showing the CATSKILLS now..
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Yep OTS pattern in ernest.


Very unusual to have so much model consensus on 92L this far out.
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FWC...

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 92L at 8PM?

A. 70%
B. 80%
C. 90%
D. ~100%
E. Lower or classification

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32507
Quoting P451:
GFS



ECMWF




CMC



I’ve been given you a lot of plusses lately! Keep up the good job.
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I though conditions were supposed to delay any development until 50W. With that pattern, any system would have a better chance to enter the E-Carib, but looks like it is no longer in place! That's good for the caribbean.
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Quoting WthrBearSF:
One last thing about the negativity being expressed on this blog, and I'll leave it be.

Yes, when a hurricane hits land, there is a certain thrill about being able to see it's fury. The wind, the rain, and the waves. But as I've gotten older, and especially since watching this blog since 2005, I've come to appreciate the other end so much more. On the other side of that thrill are human lives, pets and livestock, homes and churches and businesses and schools, and countless jobs. One hurricane making landfall wrecks havoc on thousands of lives.

I, for one, was praying in my own way with all my energy that Irene weaken or go offshore. Irene could have been catastrophic in a manner that would have been devastating to our entire country. Thankfully, Irene weakened, and we've been spared the worst. But lives were lost, from young to old, and as-yet-untold damage has been done.

I'm filled with gratitude for Dr. M and this blog, for the NHC and all the weather forecasters whose main concern was the safety of others, and for those who constructively participate in this blog giving their time, knowledge, and energy to educate and protect.

I truly feel sorry for those of you who are disappointed Irene didn't do more damage, for those of you pointing judgmental fingers at the NHC, and for those of you who feel duped. I'm happy that in spite of this, you will still be protected in the future by the army of people who do their jobs to the best of their ability regardless of the nastiness thrown their way on a regular basis.

To those who've lost anyone or anything during Irene, I hope your path forward is filled with caring people and support as you recover during this difficult time.


I agree with this wholeheartedly. As someone who was directly in Irene's path I'm very thankful it wasn't Isabel PT 2. I've lived through about 10 or 11 hurricanes in my life, some extremely devastating (Hugo) and some rather blah (Alice), and I'll take Blah any day.

Kudo's to the local power companies for getting power restored to my neighborhood in less than 18 hours. For us life is returning to normal, just the normal clean up from left over storm surge damage here in Poquoson, but the house is in good shape and debris can be cleaned, and for that I'm thankful.
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1326. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:




dont get too confident on any thing this far out mode runs will change there mines many of times


Exactly. Early runs on any system are to be generally discounted and used as a rough guide only.

Early model runs also tend to have a northern bias to them that changes over time.

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1325. P451
GFS



ECMWF




CMC

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Quoting CaribBoy:
18Z NOGAPS on board with the 18Z GFS... 92L will go north and I'm confident about that.


Yep OTS pattern in ernest.
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
I heard last night possibly one upside is that this storm might have put out the fire in the Great Dismal Swamp. Doe that seem plausible from when Irene was over VA?


Great Dismal Swamp is right on the border of NC and VA and yes, it got the rain that it needed to knock the thing out.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 888
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ignore if you must, but 92L is a tropical topic and the GFS model is currently running. Once it is done, most of the conversation will transition back to Irene.
That's true. 92L is quite pertinent. It just makes it harder to follow(for me anyway) when the blog transitions, as you and I agree, from one to another. I appreciate your GFS runs nevertheless.
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Quoting ncstorm:


CNN and TWC are not reporting these events..is there another news network that is or this only local media outlets?


I am getting my info here. Fact checking the links and video doesn't seem to lie. would be a tough photoshop anyway.

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Taking a break for a while. Out until later.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
92L...

Latest gfs, still forecasting it to turn north, then northeast later part of run. Of course many days out.
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Quoting dogsgomoo:


There are some confirmed deaths in Pennsylvania and upper New York.


And at least one in Vermont.
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1316. rv1pop
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Turbines shut down in winds over 40-45 mph, or if there is too much vibration in the supporting structure.
TRUE and thanks for posting. Some are geared higher and with smaller blades, but those are not the rule and only handle a small percentage higher wind.
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18Z NOGAPS on board with the 18Z GFS... 92L will go north and I'm confident about that.
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Lights flickering a lot. The wind has quite picked up again. Hmmm.
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The local weathermen are not talking about anything significant in the GOM. Chance of rain going up to 40-60% over the weekend here in the NOLA area. Usually this site is 24 hrs ahead of anything the local guys will mention on TV.
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1312. emcf30
Quoting hahaguy:


Try msnbc


Also HLN is going from one local station to another showing coverage. Very good concept. I have already saw reports for 30 plus communities showing the effects of the storm.
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1311. ncstorm
18Z has 92L heading out to sea..tomorrow all the models will have it going west..

Link
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
I heard last night possibly one upside is that this storm might have put out the fire in the Great Dismal Swamp. Doe that seem plausible from when Irene was over VA?


No news from Inciweb, but it looks like that area got 4-8" of rain yesterday. That may be enough to kill most of it.
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New to this forum but have endured a cat 5, a couple of cat 1's and 2 TS. Can someone pls tell me why on this site 92 is shown at 10.7N yet on other sites it is at 9.5
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For those who use Twitter (and those who don't) search for different things and you will find LOTS of information about affected areas. Example - search catskills - you find other links to info, it's bad.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MississippiWx:


No, it's most likely there because of Jose. Upper level winds are shearing Jose's convection and energy one way, while his circulation is trying to pull the air in another way. That's causing the blowup of convection to his south.

Hmm. Interesting.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Looks like a dry periode in the lesser antilles as every t-waves will develop and move north of the islands.. TD10, now 92L.. and so. Lol yes this is all speculation, but that seems realistic a this time.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I wonder if it's hindering the storm.


No, it's most likely there because of Jose. Upper level winds are shearing Jose's convection and energy one way, while his circulation is trying to pull the air in another way. That's causing the blowup of convection to his south.
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1304. ncstorm
Quoting hahaguy:


Try msnbc


thanks!
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92L...

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One last thing about the negativity being expressed on this blog, and I'll leave it be.

Yes, when a hurricane hits land, there is a certain thrill about being able to see it's fury. The wind, the rain, and the waves. But as I've gotten older, and especially since watching this blog since 2005, I've come to appreciate the other end so much more. On the other side of that thrill are human lives, pets and livestock, homes and churches and businesses and schools, and countless jobs. One hurricane making landfall wrecks havoc on thousands of lives.

I, for one, was praying in my own way with all my energy that Irene weaken or go offshore. Irene could have been catastrophic in a manner that would have been devastating to our entire country. Thankfully, Irene weakened, and we've been spared the worst. But lives were lost, from young to old, and as-yet-untold damage has been done.

I'm filled with gratitude for Dr. M and this blog, for the NHC and all the weather forecasters whose main concern was the safety of others, and for those who constructively participate in this blog giving their time, knowledge, and energy to educate and protect.

I truly feel sorry for those of you who are disappointed Irene didn't do more damage, for those of you pointing judgmental fingers at the NHC, and for those of you who feel duped. I'm happy that in spite of this, you will still be protected in the future by the army of people who do their jobs to the best of their ability regardless of the nastiness thrown their way on a regular basis.

To those who've lost anyone or anything during Irene, I hope your path forward is filled with caring people and support as you recover during this difficult time.
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1301. hahaguy
Quoting ncstorm:


CNN and TWC are not reporting these events..is there another news network that is or this only local media outlets?


Try msnbc
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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