Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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I have been lurking on this site since 2004 and I have only posted once before. Im in Beaufort County, NC and this is the first opportunity I have had to get on line since Irene. There is lots of damage from Irene in Eastern NC. My parents were notified yesterday that their river house along the South side of the Pamlico river was destroyed. We managed to make it down there to survey the damage. Let me tell you, It is total devestation. I saw house after house lifted off foundations by the surge and blown into the swamp. I saw many homes and parts of homes that looked as if they had bomb explode within. It is the worst damage I have ever seen. We are hearing local reports that just in Beaufort and Hyde Counties more than 600 people have no homes to go back too. Tyrell county has not even been able to be surveyed yet due to flooding, fallen trees and lack of accesability. Sorry for the long post. I just wanted to get this information out. Irene may have been a category 1 storm, but in eastern NC it has had the storm surge and damage consistent with a category 3.
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TD 12 has the potential to be saving grace for Quicksilvers 1 million dollar surf contest in New York From Sept 4th.-to 15th. Long beach.
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Japan may get hit again.
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Katrina is not in the Gulf right now. You mean 8/29/2005 :)


...Good point. :-)
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2747. cmahan
Quoting bassis:


Is that Vermont?


Windham, NY. Dilbert creator Scott Adams put out a call on his blog for someone to check on his dad, he grew up in the area. (He says his father lives on high ground and is likely okay, but may be cut off and need help.)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
We will never forget. 8/29/2011



Katrina is not in the Gulf right now. You mean 8/29/2005 :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
2745. rv1pop
Quoting DFWjc:
Good Morning WU Gang, I just woke up to the rare sounds of RAIN!!! Finally, we get some rain up in the Metroplex!!!
PTL
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Awesome satellite loop

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Quoting bassis:


Is that Vermont?

Not sure. Could be NY or VE.
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2742. bassis
Quoting AussieStorm:
Windham downtown decimated by storm





WINDHAM – Windham Fire Chief Michael Scarey said Hurricane Irene has “wiped out” downtown Windham. Torrential rains that started Saturday night forced evacuations, submerged school buses and garages and shut down access to the rest of the mountain top.

More than 10 inches of rain fell on the community with an estimated three to four feet of water rushing through Main Street, decimating everything in its path.

Further west, a house was ripped from its foundation and was swallowed by the fast moving creek. It slammed into a bridge.

Fire fighters spent much of the day rescuing people from their flooded homes. One woman was rescued after she was pinned to a tree by the sheer force of the flood waters.


Is that Vermont?
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2741. Patrap
I feel Gustav showed the World NOLA has come far since K,and to be sure,we who Grew up in Waveland,Bay St Louis know many who lost family in both areas.

As Americans we share the day for the remembrance of the lost and suffered.


I kept my promise of being first into Texas in 08 after they helped La. so graciously after K.

From a single post here in my blog n Sept 08, to as recently as today, I've stayed true to that promise thru Portlight.

But this is my last post till that need arises again.

My head is empty for words, but my heart remains NOLA and Gulf Coast.

May we all respect the Hurricane and let us not forget the past, for when we do, were doomed to repeat it.

Carry on,..live well, and cherish what you Love most..for in a single day you can lose it.










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2740. Grothar
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Windham downtown decimated by storm





WINDHAM – Windham Fire Chief Michael Scarey said Hurricane Irene has “wiped out” downtown Windham. Torrential rains that started Saturday night forced evacuations, submerged school buses and garages and shut down access to the rest of the mountain top.

More than 10 inches of rain fell on the community with an estimated three to four feet of water rushing through Main Street, decimating everything in its path.

Further west, a house was ripped from its foundation and was swallowed by the fast moving creek. It slammed into a bridge.

Fire fighters spent much of the day rescuing people from their flooded homes. One woman was rescued after she was pinned to a tree by the sheer force of the flood waters.
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We will never forget. 8/29/2005

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2737. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Whoops my bad got mississippi and alabama mixed up.

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Quoting o22sail:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)


I'm in Mississippi and I remember Katrina very well. My home gone, but the worst part is to go around trying to at least find some memories, photos or some other items which are of personal value. We were largely ignored, but to us it did not matter, because people in Mississippi did not need the attention we rebuilt our towns by ourselves and of course with the help of those who came down here to lend a hand. New Orleans, well, there are many who also suffered there and I can assure you that many of them where very decent people, but generally their reaction to the aftermath was quite different to ours. The reason they were devastated was mainly due to the levees giving way after so many warnings were given to their officials about the need to reinforce them. The lack of leadership also contributed to the disaster in evacuating the residents. But I know I will take heat for saying this and it will happen again and perhaps worse. I'm just glad to be living in the right side of the border.
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2733. Patrap
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Irene at Hispaniola/Cuba.


Cuba/Turks Caicos Islands.


The Bahamas


Florida/Northern Bahamas.


Florida/GA/SC


NC Landfall


New York.
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Looking at what is coming down the pike, trough wise in the norther Pacific, it looks about as zonal as it could get.

The door is wide open to CONUS, for the near term, anyway.
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2730. Patrap




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2729. Patrap
Quoting o22sail:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)


Well those of us who live in Miss and La. know all too well.



"Calamity Knows no Border's, only men's minds and maps do"

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Quoting Zaphod:
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?

Kat-yah
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Actually they don't have a floater up on TD 12 yet either......i was trying to figure out which Floater # they would put up and i took Floater 1 for now.
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2726. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
the name is katia tampa incorrect info there and confusing as well once its label by NHC
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Quoting Zaphod:
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?

KAH-tyah. Two syllables.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13527
2724. o22sail
Quoting Patrap:


Everybody remembers NOLA. Nobody really seems to remember what happened a little to the east in that mystery state that must not be named. To me, the real disaster in NOLA started after the "K" storm departed.

That was my first weekend here on the Dr. Masters blog.
...and yet, I still keep coming back. ;)
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12L might threaten Bermuda, other than that, too early to tell but so far, models are pointing towards Bermuda.
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--- From NWS - San Juan - They believe it will find the weakness to stay far away to the North of PR Sat/Sun.

NEWLY FORMED TD#12 XPCD TO BECOME TS KATIA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH WEAKNESS TO STEER THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE ON A NW TRACK AND KEEP IT AT A SAFE DISTANCE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE STORM
BECOMES AS INTENSE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
NEXT MON SEPT 05.

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Quoting RussianWinter:


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.


Not so..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting wxobsvps:
Historical tracks are of little significance to current storms.

Could pull a Charley.


Charley was a storm that formed near the antilles. Not the same thing.
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2719. Zaphod
Is this Katia a Kah-tee-ah girl, or Kah-sha, or Kat-yah?

Meaning "pure" or "worthy". And is the same basic root as Katrina.

A little too close for comfort for some?
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Quoting RussianWinter:


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.



Its too early to say that yet.......,but it is possible when that far out........Caution tho as this is very far South and the South ones tend to make it more often further West.
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2716. fsumet
Top 10 Analog Tracks for TD 12:

Link
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Horror-cane Katrina...6 years later
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


As everyone sees, TD12 is nothing to worry about unless you are in Bermuda or Nova Scotia. All of the above storms have been fish so odds are this is a fish too.
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11:00am Advisories
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Katia*



YA I SCREWED THAT UP........just fixed it! LOL.,...Thanks for the correction.
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2711. Patrap
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2710. Skyepony (Mod)
The thing that stood out the most tropically today while updating my blog was...OMG look how big TALAS is..

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2709. chawk
inconspicuous little spin in the GOM just north of the Yucatan and the SE GOM is getting very wet. Got 3" of rain in 4 hours this morning in Palm Harbor.
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Best coverage of impacts on VT I have seen.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
Thx Tampa
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2705. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Earl's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Danielle's (2010) initial forecast track:



Hurricane Bill's (2009) initial forecast track:



Tropical Depression Twelve current forecast track:



May see TD #12 follow a similar bath to Hurricane Bill (2009) and/or Hurricane Earl (2010). Hurricane Danielle, who curved to the east of Bermuda, is unlikely at this time.


yeah, goes to show..everything is not set in stone..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
2704. emcf30
Another nice wave approaching the Atlantic.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.


Katia*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
2702. o22sail
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My best analogue for TD #12 right now...Maybe a little farther north.



HAHAHA!
I couldn't take another one of those right now.
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I now have 5 interacative FLOATERS and have all the Models and graphics up on TD#12 which "I" and only I have already labeled KATINA.......i only did so to save me some time. HOpe you understand as TD 12 will become KATINA sometime today if not already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.