Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1501 - 1451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting DookiePBC:


Hey Taz...got my popcorn ready!!


yes and am eating it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
100%. We'll be welcoming TD12 to the scene before long.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Somebody should bold the 100%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jascott1967:


I respectfully agree. She was underhyped which brings me to my original point. Storms in the Gulf Of Mexico are underhyped, those of the East Coast are overyhped. Again, to my original point, and many agree with me here as it was brought up on an AM sports show, of all things, we saw Irene being super hyped while Ike and Katrina were mere after thoughts in the minds of the rest of the nation.

THAT is my point.


Could it possibly be that lessons were learned in Katrina and Ike? Could it possibly be that OUR government(s) (local, state and federal) are committed to NEVER AGAIN?

The response to Irene was appropriate. You can't change history, but take the lessons into the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
take care everyone.....i have to head out for orientation....off to work claims....it's horrible that things like this happen but i am glad god has given me the ability to help others put their lives back together with as little hassle as possible....


pray for all affected....and take care. i will check in once i am set up in a hotel room and all....by that time i'm sure you all will know a lot more about 92L.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
100%. 12L tonight seems very likely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1494. Sangria
Hi Y'all....I have been a "lurker" since I moved from Austin, TX to the Central Gulf Coast of Florida in 2005. My folks retired from the DFW area to Citrus County, so I thought I needed an intelligent arena to obtain information regarding tropical weather!! (since we have never experienced "water related weather".)

I can't even begin to tell you how much I have learned from the bloggers on this site. I had no idea what a "high" was 6 years ago, let alone what "steering patterns" were. THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH!!!

I just signed up for a paid membership to help the site, and have a non-weather related question. I wanted to upload a picture for my avatar, but I cannot find a command for it in the member area. Can someone tell me how to do this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey guys what time is it its all most time for the two


Hey Taz...got my popcorn ready!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Where is the Doc with the whack-a-mole hammer??


That's why he needs to deputize more admins to get rid of these things.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
Near 100%!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF ST. JOHNSBURY
VERMONT...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JOSE...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JOSE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JOSE ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
-


:P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting violet312s:
Flagged and ignored.

Is there a link to river height forecasts in the NE? Want to get some understanding of how long the threat will persist.

Here's a great comprehensive page for the entire Northeast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
-
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

...JOSE PASSING NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING SQUALLS TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Here's the thing. We'll never know how many lives were saved by the so-called "over-hype" of Irene. It's impossible to measure.

Even I know that Irene is an unusual storm, and that is based only on my 30 years of living in Florida, and experiencing numerous tropical cyclones first hand. The NHC did an excellent job with the data and technology available. I have not lost one iota of faith in them.

And for those who think that the NWS is a waste of taxpayers' money, I say the same thing--We can not measure the number of lives saved by the NWS.

Finally, thanks to everyone here who shares their extensive knowledge. I've learned a great deal since I started following this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey guys what time is it its all most time for the two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Everyone is obviously F5'ing the TWO...hence the slow blog lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1480. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A little?


Well the ingredients for a hurricane are there. I just don't see it as a major at 120hrs, maybe a 80-100mph one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


(nods)


Funny thing is, none of those got named, Ha-ha. Though the orange one did get classified.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Does anyone remember when there was 4 circles in the 4th of July last year? LoL


Ayup
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A little?


Yes, a little.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting weathermancer:
Its interesting how the media creates 'super-hype' about something... only to have to justify themselves and play devils advocate later. The medium is the message. Its the "truth" that gets lost in the medium.

Current Weather in Halifax: warm gusty southerlies... more winds expected tonight.



The BEST thing I ever did in my life was to throw out the TV. 25 years and I'm still on the wagon. Commercial broadcast media is utter crap.

Much the same here in Yarmouth, 46 km/h gusting to 63 km/h, but picking up and Enviro Can calling for more rain, maybe t-storms. By comparison we've been lucky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
SHIPS turns 92L into a 135mph major hurricane in 120hrs.

Thinking that's a little too aggressive.

A little?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
1473. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A 3rd year La Nina hurricane season would be something. Also, the implications on winter will be very interesting too.
ct dont bring up the winter yet i don't like to think about that till after 25 of sept

j/k lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Does anyone remember when there was 4 circles in the 4th of July last year? LoL


(nods)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting Vero1:
Maybe they should start using the Billions we send as Foriegn Disaster Fund here at home.


I whole-heartedly agree.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
1470. JLPR2
SHIPS turns 92L into a 135mph major hurricane in 120hrs.

Thinking that's a little too aggressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone remember when there was 4 circles in the 4th of July last year? LoL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
omg...this has been "Day of the Living Troll"...is this becasue of some kind of post Irene let-down?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Had to get some sleep, been a long weekend. Was hoping when I got back on here it would have calmed down a little. Well...not so much.. It's a good thing Irene wasn't any stronger than it is. With already 19 dead, and sure to be a multi billion dollar disaster, it's not over yet as coastal flooding continues, and water levels on rivers continue to rise. I'm sure most of the people in the areas affected are glad to see her go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
We're back under La Nina threshold in the weeklies, heading full boar into another cold phase. Implications for next hurricane season will be interesting.



A 3rd year La Nina hurricane season would be something. Also, the implications on winter will be very interesting too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
1462. Levi32
We're back under La Nina threshold in the weeklies, heading full boar into another cold phase. Implications for next hurricane season will be interesting.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Tazmanian:



or can we this get back too the weather


What I was trying to say in other words.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1460. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poor system...


Poor Jose, living in Irenes shadow, never knowing what its like to see the light of day and the thrill of chaseing fish.......Live long and prosper Jose, that is until you die tommorow.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting twincomanche:
I respectfully disagree. The last underhyped storm was Katrina. The results speak for themselves. If the pols over reacted in some cases on Irene, well it saved a lot of lives opposed to the feckless behavior such as Nagin and Blanco.


I respectfully agree. She was underhyped which brings me to my original point. Storms in the Gulf Of Mexico are underhyped, those of the East Coast are overyhped. Again, to my original point, and many agree with me here as it was brought up on an AM sports show, of all things, we saw Irene being super hyped while Ike and Katrina were mere after thoughts in the minds of the rest of the nation.

THAT is my point.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah, they'll probably have another 1-3 named storms, especially from waves in the Atlantic that don't develop and cross over into the area.

It isn't over until it's over.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting PcolaDan:


Some good info on the Catskills here. Has a live blog.


Thanks, been checking towns near mine that I know well. Hard to find out about people. There appears to be some who are missing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flagged and ignored.

Is there a link to river height forecasts in the NE? Want to get some understanding of how long the threat will persist.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think the E PAC is done for the season?
got to get it's mojo back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think the E PAC is done for the season?


Nah, they'll probably have another 1-3 named storms, especially from waves in the Atlantic that don't develop and cross over into the area.

It isn't over until it's over.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think the E PAC is done for the season?


I dare say we'll get a few more, but I think we're probably over halfway at any rate.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1452. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
As I type this there's folks holding onto a tree to prevent getting swept away inland, or watching surge waters rising along the coast in CT., RI, Mass, Me....as a result of a tropical storm. Their tale will be told in the next 5 minutes. Doesn't it make sense to look at the current effects of a tropical storm instead of looking to Africa? At this time of year there's always something ELSE to look forward to, but what does it matter if you don't look at what's going on to people right now.
we all ready warned them folks cosmic can't do anything more for them maybe shoot a few bucks to a fund or something all i can do for them is to watch for the next one and tell them when and where its coming think of it as a distant early warning line
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


Or you can just flag, ignore, and move on.



or can we this get back too the weather
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074

Viewing: 1501 - 1451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
60 °F
Mostly Cloudy