Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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1551. j2008
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Did anyone see this post? Or have I been put on everyone's ignore list?
Yea I see you, I think there are very slim chances for 92 to impact the US. If it develops alot slower than what the models are predicting then we could see a potential threat for the US.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep one gone & one enters

A weird one for TX enters. The rain chances we centexers are ?? about comes about via a perpendicular sideswipe hit & run, per the GFS (~wed, thu, fri):

Two ships passing in the night?
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Irene flash flooding taking the ottauquechee bridge

Vermont

cant get it to embed.....

Link

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Thanks everyone for your replies.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Did anyone see this post? Or have I been put on everyone's ignore list?


I see it. I believe there is a very slim chance of 92L getting into the GOM or ever hitting the US. Early models all want to take it north.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Did anyone see this post? Or have I been put on everyone's ignore list?
Would have to really go against all the models at this point and stay week continuing west then it would have a chance i would say.
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Anybody have the current list of state of emergencies?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
TECHNICAL RESCUE
08/28/11 11:38 (PHOENICIA - ) WATER UP TO 2ND FLOOR OF HOUSE - 3 TRAPPED RESCUE IN PROG. [NYK239]
TRAFFIC ADVISORY
08/28/11 09:13 (HIGHLAND - ) POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS TWAALFSKILL CREEK IS FLOODING & WASHING OVER VINYARD AVE [LOU014]
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting floodzonenc:


LMBO. Almost pooped my pants at first glance. Didn't know it was an archived image...

I am ready for a few weeks of tropical peace. If anything develops, let it be weak on go to TX. Most of eastern NC schools out tomorrow... hope the kids are picking up limbs and being good citizens :)

WU has been like crack to me for the past month, so I may need a support group. Maybe this blog? Stay safe, everyone going through flooding or just cleaning up.

And stay classy, San Diego.

Your avatar only makes the bolded parts funnier! XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1540. Vero1
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Quoting Thrawst:


We're nearly on pace with 2005.. behind 1 storm name. . . but if Katia develops we'll be tied in the amount of named storms. :)


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
Quoting CybrTeddy:


There is no comparison at this point LOL.

2010 was on Earl, it became a hurricane tomorrow.

2008 was on Gustav, Hanna formed later tonight 3 years ago.

Katia would put us one less than 2005.

brb all




ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
1537. Thrawst
Quoting Tazmanian:



where dos that put us with 2008 and 2010?


We're nearly on pace with 2005.. behind 1 storm name. . . but if Katia develops we'll be tied in the amount of named storms. :)
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1536. lennit
well after looking at all the models and long term patterns i believe it will be hard to get another system from the east to effect the CONUS with the constant trof progressions off the east coast .. Oct looks like month for US effects
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Does anyone think that 92L will be a GoM storm? Right now, I don't think so, but what do you guys think?


Did anyone see this post? Or have I been put on everyone's ignore list?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



where dos that put us with 2008 and 2010?


There is no comparison at this point LOL. 2011 wins by a landslide,

2010 was on Earl, it became a hurricane tomorrow.

2008 was on Gustav, Hanna formed later tonight 3 years ago.

Katia would put us one less than 2005.

brb all
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1533. Thrawst
TD-12 by 11pm? Maybeee :P
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1532. hahaguy
Quoting Tazmanian:



where dos that put us with 2008 and 2010?
If Katia gets named in the next 3 days we will be past those years
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
wonder if dry air will be a factor in how fast 92l develops it seems to be the inhibitor this season so far. I guess only time will tell
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Quoting Vero1:
Maybe they should start using the Billions we send as Foriegn Disaster Fund here at home.

Amen to that. It is time we worry about ourselves.
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1528. Gorty
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I guess that technically means 91% & up


91-99%
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L being at 100% doesn't necessarily mean it will be a TD at 11, rather that they're nearly 100% sure that 92L will become TD12 in the next 48 hours. That being said, I do believe 92L will become TD12 tomorrow.

That would be our 8th tropical cyclone of the month of August, and later our 7th named storm.



where dos that put us with 2008 and 2010?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049
92L being at 100% doesn't necessarily mean it will be a TD at 11, rather that they're nearly 100% sure that 92L will become TD12 in the next 48 hours. That being said, I do believe 92L will become TD12 tomorrow.

That would be our 8th tropical cyclone of the month of August, and later our 7th named storm of the month.. and our 11th named storm of the year, and its not even September. Incredible.
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Irene is making her presence felt in Canada. 180 000 people have lost power in Quebec.
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Quoting Gorty:


Not quite 100%. It is near 100%
Yeah I guess that technically means 91% & up
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Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting Sangria:
Hi Y'all....I have been a "lurker" since I moved from Austin, TX to the Central Gulf Coast of Florida in 2005. My folks retired from the DFW area to Citrus County, so I thought I needed an intelligent arena to obtain information regarding tropical weather!! (since we have never experienced "water related weather".)

I can't even begin to tell you how much I have learned from the bloggers on this site. I had no idea what a "high" was 6 years ago, let alone what "steering patterns" were. THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH!!!

I just signed up for a paid membership to help the site, and have a non-weather related question. I wanted to upload a picture for my avatar, but I cannot find a command for it in the member area. Can someone tell me how to do this?


Top of page - under your user name - my photos - upload photos (on top right) - make sure you click on "Primary Portrait"

may take a bit before you see it
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1519. Gorty
Quoting CybrTeddy:
100% on 92L, now that's high confidence that it will develop.


Not quite 100%. It is near 100%
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Quoting twincomanche:
+1. If it didn't work out he could always un deputize them. Is that a word? LOL.


There are a few in here who are level-headed enough to not ban until it is very obvious they are trolling. KEEPER is one I would nominate. But I think he should elevate two who are "regulars" such that they can bounce a ban off each other in case the other thinks it's not warranted.

Just my humble opinion.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Correction: 12L.


Does anyone think that 92L will be a GoM storm? Right now, I don't think so, but what do you guys think?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...
...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Look above your comment. :P
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting Sangria:
Hi Y'all....I have been a "lurker" since I moved from Austin, TX to the Central Gulf Coast of Florida in 2005. My folks retired from the DFW area to Citrus County, so I thought I needed an intelligent arena to obtain information regarding tropical weather!! (since we have never experienced "water related weather".)

I can't even begin to tell you how much I have learned from the bloggers on this site. I had no idea what a "high" was 6 years ago, let alone what "steering patterns" were. THANK YOU ALL SO MUCH!!!

I just signed up for a paid membership to help the site, and have a non-weather related question. I wanted to upload a picture for my avatar, but I cannot find a command for it in the member area. Can someone tell me how to do this?
I want to do the same couldn't find it.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
100% on 92L, now that's high confidence that it will develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...
...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.1N 72.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
...CENTER OF IRENE APPROACHING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER... ...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 28
Location: 44.1°N 72.1°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
1508. JLPR2
100% Wasn't expecting that.
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The big picture. 92L looks robust, and Africa is busy manufacturing:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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Surprised at the 100%.

But then again how long was Emily at 100%?? lol
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
100%. We'll be welcoming TD12 to the scene before long.
Yep one gone & one enters
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http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/

Lots of emergency radio feeds
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
100%. 12L tonight seems very likely.


Correction: 12L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
Quoting Neapolitan:

Here's a great comprehensive page for the entire Northeast.


Thanks!
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
Quoting DookiePBC:


Hey Taz...got my popcorn ready!!


yes and am eating it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114049

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.