Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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1651. ncstorm
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1650. eye
Big Bertha developed fast also.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.



:)
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Catskill Flood Disaster Info 8/28
Facebook page


Thanks, Pcola
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Here's a prediction:
92L will be Katia. Katia will head to the CARR and become a Cat. 4. She will then...
What ar the stering currents in the CARR?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z ATCF update for TS Irene...Pressure up 1 mb.

AL, 09, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 442N, 721W, 45, 979, TS, 34, NEQ, 230, 315, 250, 50, 1004, 350, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, D,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
1642. snotly
POOF! both of you! (for not bowing to my point of view)

just kidding...

Quoting rkay1:
Wow that may have been the most accurate statement that has ever been posted on this blog.

Quoting jascott1967:
I've been a member of this
board since 2007 and the bloggers here never fail to astound me. Anyone
posting a message, it's like walking a tight rope. If you lean to far
one way, you're singled out as a troll. If you lean just a little bit
the other way, you're labeled a troll. You're all basically talking to
yourselves, I don't see the sense in you being here if you're skin isn't
thick enough to be challenged. 1st time someone challenges you, you put
them on ignore.

I'm guessing in the end you'll be left mumbling to yourself.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very favorable.


This could be a repeat of hurricane Igor from 2010,am i correct? Based on intensity forecast, not track similarity. Igor was high end category 4, 92L is forecast to be around that benchmark right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.

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Quoting snotly:
92L should be fish... hoping saying that didn't jinx it.





sorry no fish with 92L and all so 92L is too far S



Ivan comes in too mine
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
So sounds like if its quick to spin up it will curve out to sea, guess im hoping for this scenario then. Thanks



nop storm this far S do not go out too sea




Ivan comes in too mine with 92L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
1634. snotly
92L should be fish... hoping saying that didn't jinx it.

Quoting JRRP:
mmmmmmm
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Quoting AllyBama:
geez.. the model runs are bringing 92L ever so close to the CONUS again..this is going to be a looong week
as we anticipate the formation and track soon to be "Katia"..


They need to get some new names in that list. I know it's been said here many times today, but Katia and Rina are too close to some rather nasty memories.
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Nothing like hoping for a Premature Hurricane i guess in 92l/s case.
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geez.. the model runs are bringing 92L ever so close to the CONUS again..this is going to be a looong week
as we anticipate the formation and track soon to be "Katia"..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Model runs were too far north already, and now that the center is farther south than they initialized, we should see a pretty significant southward shift with the new runs.



and its not going too be a good one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting rkay1:
Wow that may have been the most accurate statement that has ever been posted on this blog.

Quoting jascott1967:
I've been a member of this
board since 2007 and the bloggers here never fail to astound me. Anyone
posting a message, it's like walking a tight rope. If you lean to far
one way, you're singled out as a troll. If you lean just a little bit
the other way, you're labeled a troll. You're all basically talking to
yourselves, I don't see the sense in you being here if you're skin isn't
thick enough to be challenged. 1st time someone challenges you, you put
them on ignore.

I'm guessing in the end you'll be left mumbling to yourself.


\
funny I haven't seen you post in 3 days

oh that's right, you were more than happy to post when the forecast track was questioned; it gave you someone to ridicule. When the track became clear and this storm was impacting the US, you were nowhere to be found

Hmmmm interesting isn't it?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
@1608 Taz: Thats what I'm thinkin.


Agreed. It would have to make a hard right in order to turn out to sea and with the blocking ridge that might be somewhat difficult at this point.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




storms this far S dos not go out too sea

Is the W-CARR still not favorable for development? (Don,Harvey,and Emily stuggled here)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs say W




Model runs were too far north already, and now that the center is farther south than they initialized, we should see a pretty significant southward shift with the new runs.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
So sounds like if its quick to spin up it will curve out to sea, guess im hoping for this scenario then. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mode runs say W


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting JRRP:
mmmmmmm


Well, that seems to be a problem.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
For all you guys and gals good at reading stearing maps and shear maps and sal whats the conditions look like ahead for 92l? TIA


low to moderate shear very little if at all of a sal, and nothing to stop development
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
@1608 Taz: Thats what I'm thinkin.




storms this far S dos not go out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
1616. JRRP
mmmmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1615. Dennis8
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene could cost U.S. state and local governments billions of dollars in damages, but funds from the federal government might ultimately cover much of this expense.

It is too early to estimate the cost of the storm, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said New Jersey alone may have suffered tens of billions of dollars in damage.

The timing is terrible for municipalities as they dig their way out of their bleakest economic period in decades after the financial crisis and recession sank budgets and forced widespread cuts in expense and increased taxes.

But Maryland said the federal government will reimburse the state for 75 percent of what it spends on emergency preparedness and the immediate response to the storm in a trend that may be replicated across the region.

Just how well the United States can handle the unexpected expense is a different question as it battles record budget deficits and growing fears of a double dip recession.
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@1608 Taz: Thats what I'm thinkin.
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1612. Sangria
Quoting PcolaDan:


Top of page - under your user name - my photos - upload photos (on top right) - make sure you click on "Primary Portrait"

may take a bit before you see it


Thank You..... not that it was very important, it was just bugging me that I could not figure it out!!
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00Z ATCF update for TS Jose...No change in strength.

AL, 11, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 341N, 656W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Hurricane Irene: Disaster in the Catskills
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
For all you guys and gals good at reading stearing maps and shear maps and sal whats the conditions look like ahead for 92l? TIA


Very favorable.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
92L is too far S too go out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
For all you guys and gals good at reading stearing maps and shear maps and sal whats the conditions look like ahead for 92l? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1606. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
00Z ATCF update for 92L...No change in strength.

AL, 92, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 93N, 240W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


But adjusted to 9.3N from 10.7N.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
Quoting bwat:
Thank You! I called DOM's automated service and got a message saying crews where working on my outage and power would be restored today between 5pm and 11pm. Seriously thanks for the tip, I would still be in the dark on knowing when the power was comming back on if it was not for that. (No pun intended)


haha no problem at all, they said 4-10 here and it came on at 7 so it should not be that much longer :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z ATCF update for 92L...No change in strength.

AL, 92, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 93N, 240W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
1601. bwat
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I got it from calling dominion power. They sounded busy as heck.
Thank You! I called DOM's automated service and got a message saying crews where working on my outage and power would be restored today between 5pm and 11pm. Seriously thanks for the tip, I would still be in the dark on knowing when the power was comming back on if it was not for that. (No pun intended)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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