Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting nofailsafe:


It'll be interesting to see which gets eaten or spun off by the other (if they're close enough.)
Like last year.When multiple waves were coming off and competing and trying to become the dominate feature.
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Link

Hatteras Island by helicopter today. Sorry about the first one. Try this link from WAVY10.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Who thinks we'll see TD #11 at 11PM tonight?



TropicalAnalystwx13



i do by the way plzs see my post 1682 and tell me what you think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
Quoting ncstorm:
that dont look out to sea to me..



No, that looks Category 5 hurricane towards my state to me!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.


Must...pet...hair...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
1695. Walshy
It's very common for models to show the north turn too fast with invests off of Africa.

Lets watch 92L progress westward these next several days before talking sharp north turns.

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http://www.wavy.com/dpp/weather/hurricane/highway-1 2-washed-out-road
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The models also show a wave behind 92L that could be 93L and develop.They've been showing it for some runs now.


Dont be surprised, big bad september is upon us...the dreaded september....especially with a strong high pressure system over the central and extreme west atlantic. This set up for the month is scaring me as an NC resident. Irene BARELY missed my area with those TS winds.
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Who thinks we'll see TD #12 at 11PM tonight?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting JRRP:
north ????
weeell...



Right now it looks like the Texas ridge might do an 'ok' job at keeping the northeast gulf coast clear. It's supposed to soften up later this week, so what happens after that is up in the air (no pun intended.) Anyone know where to get archived steering maps?

Of course, the above really only matters if invest 92 develops and stays to the south.
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Quoting ncstorm:
oh oh :(
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92L down in latitude.. now around 9N! Should change the track...
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1688. bassis
Quoting Neapolitan:

Here's a great comprehensive page for the entire Northeast.


Fantastic link. Thanks
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1685. ncstorm
that dont look out to sea to me..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15220
I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility of a northwestward turn in the Central Atlantic. In fact, it's a distinct possibility given forecasts for the high to erode over the Eastern United States in the medium range.

I will never use the term "fish" again after Irene. Only re curvature or out to sea.
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The models when Irene first develop were in good agreement on where she would go then the track started to differ just like what's happening with invest 92L.
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Quoting lottotexas:
What is the history from that location ?




here is where Ivan from

plz note this is for Ivan and not for 92L

18 GMT 9.7 27.6 30 1009 Tropical Depression



this is where 92L is


28/2345 UTC 9.3N 24.4W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic




we may see a track this like this







has you can see storms this far S dont go out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
Quoting chimera245:
I haven't seen an awful lot of commentary on the disparity in Wind Speeds at Flight Level and at Surface for Irene.

Are there likely reasons for this? Was it due to the long partial interaction with land (PR, Hispaniola, the Carolina's) or some other reason?


That's the posessive. It's Carolinas. Right, press? lol
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
1680. JRRP
Quoting zerveftexas:

GFS and the other fishcasting models are all showing immediate NW motion, not going to happen

exactly
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The models also show a wave behind 92L that could be 93L and develop.They've been showing it for some runs now.


It'll be interesting to see which gets eaten or spun off by the other (if they're close enough.)
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1678. JRRP
north ????
weeell...

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which models tend to dot the best percent wise on long tracks? I have looked at alot and they all think somthing different will happen.
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I haven't seen an awful lot of commentary on the disparity in Wind Speeds at Flight Level and at Surface for Irene.

Are there likely reasons for this? Was it due to the long partial interaction with land (PR, Hispaniola, the Carolina's) or some other reason?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop storm this far S do not go out too sea




Ivan comes in too mine with 92L
Taz, stop saying that !
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Am I the only one that doesn't have a problem with anybody on the blog?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In intensity? Possibly...The ECMWF goes as far as to say we will have a Category 5 hurricane next week.


I love a big powerful hurricane in the middle of the atlantic to admire...but i have said this too much. when they getclose to threatening land areas, I be prayin and wishin for a fish storm! Basically somthing similar to the track of Danielle last year is what i would like if Bermuda wasnt in the way lol
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The models also show a wave behind 92L that could be 93L and develop.They've been showing it for some runs now.
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@BreakingNews
Breaking News
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Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.



Aww, look at the cute little puppy dog!

Ahem, I, uh, mean...Yeah, the dog pretty.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
1666. ncstorm
Quoting zerveftexas:

GFS and the other fishcasting models are all showing immediate NW motion, not going to happen


Yeah, I dont think so eithier..
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1664. eye
Remember yall, pressures are low in the Atlantic to begin with, Irene was a Cat 1 and had 950 pressure.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L is too far S too go out too sea
What is the history from that location ?
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Quoting palmpt:


Lets hope not,Taz... Ivan was a click on the compass (66 miles) from going up Mobile Bay... Mobile has never had the serious storm suge event. Katrina is the high water mark in maodern time. The folks in Mobile have no idea how bad it could get.



i hop so too but will see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
1660. palmpt
Quoting Tazmanian:




sorry no fish with 92L and all so 92L is too far S



Ivan comes in too mine


Lets hope not,Taz... Ivan was a click on the compass (66 miles) from going up Mobile Bay... Mobile has never had the serious storm surge event. Katrina is the high water mark in modern time. The folks in Mobile have no idea how bad it could get.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Time to go do stuff this evening, next GFS finishes up at midnight CDT.
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1657. Zeec94
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Here's a prediction:
92L will be Katia. Katia will head to the CARR and become a Cat. 4. She will then...
What ar the stering currents in the CARR?

Gulf Stream is dominant right now but if you look ahead the Gulf of Mexico will open for business next week.
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Quoting zerveftexas:
pre-Katrina isn't going out to sea. The high is only going to get stronger.




yup its not going out too sea its too far S any way and storm more S do not go out too sea like the storm more N do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114966
Quoting rkay1:
Wow are we really calling this invest Ivan?  How about Katrina?! or Andrew?!



It does though cuz its so faar south
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, Pcola


You're welcome. There are evacuations going on all over the Catskills. And roads washed out and comms down. They are having major problems.

May have posted this already, but just in case.
http://www.watershedpost.com/2011/hurricane-irene -live-news-feed-catskills
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting SPLbeater:


This could be a repeat of hurricane Igor from 2010,am i correct? Based on intensity forecast, not track similarity. Igor was high end category 4, 92L is forecast to be around that benchmark right?


In intensity? Possibly...The ECMWF goes as far as to say we will have a Category 5 hurricane next week.
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1651. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15220

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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