Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Say goodbye to the name Irene.


That would make a grand early total of 11 billion dollars in damages, or the 8th most destructive hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin. Mind you, that's just alone by the early totals. It could be much higher.

Oh yes everyone, Irene was a 'bust' LOL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting zerveftexas:

Katia is neither Andrew nor Katrina...it is Katia. No two storms are alike.


Though one might say 1989 Allison and 2001 Allison were eerily similar in their effected regions and early tracks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Say goodbye to the name Irene.



yup
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Does La Nina mean we might have a busy October? sorry for all the questions but you all seem to be anwsering them with the quickness TIA.


If we have an active October, it will be due to Neutral. Even if we do transition to La Nina between now and then, it will take a couple of months for the atmosphere to transition.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
In the other Ocean:

@BreakingNews
Breaking News
Taiwan braces for Typhoon Nanmadol; evacuations have begun - TaiwanNews bit.ly/rlL6hd
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Does La Nina mean we might have a busy October? sorry for all the questions but you all seem to be anwsering them with the quickness TIA.
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Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

how so?
None of the models turn it north around 40W now Continues W/WNW.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Has anyone seen or heard from Bahahurricane since Irene?

He probably still doesn't have power, just looking at this.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Chicklit:
Has anyone seen or heard from Bahahurricane since Irene?


Yeah, he was on the other day, and said the power had been restored to his area IIRC. Not seen or heard from him since.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting zerveftexas:

Katia is neither Andrew nor Katrina...it is Katia. No two storms are alike.


Just ignore him, he's an idiot, a troll with no comprehension of anything but himself. Often, trolls are truly narcissistic in real life. Dr. Masters missed a mole apparently.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
1737. doubtit
Quoting zerveftexas:
I wouldn't discount an Ike scenario with 92L...maybe going WNW for awhile and even reaching a relatively high latitude around 60W...then bending back to the west or even a bit south of due west once the high builds back in. A sharp SW bend such as the one we observed in Ike is unlikely but a turn towards Florida as a major hurricane is a possibility.

Not arguing, but there is nothing to suggest that. All model runs have been consistent with the NW turn? Where do you get that westerly track from?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
*gulp*
"Throughout its path, Irene caused widespread destruction and at least 25 deaths; monetary losses to the Caribbean could be as high as US$3.1 billion according to preliminary estimates.[3] Early damage estimates in the US are about $7 billion.[4]"
From Wiki.


Say goodbye to the name Irene.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717


wow

lil displaced to the south.



Fairly south, and look at what irene did to those sst's
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Can anyone who has the pictures of the damage to NY rail post them again? I'd rather not search through 1500 comments if possible.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
Quoting Chicklit:
Has anyone seen or heard from Bahahurricane since Irene?


No, I haven't. I hope he's alright. I heard it got bad in his area.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting washingtonian115:
Like last year.When multiple waves were coming off and competing and trying to become the dominate feature.


IIRC, that happened at least once earlier this season too.
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
will 92l be in the floater tomorrow or is that to early for the satelites to pick it up?


Its at 26-27W give or take a degree or two. Once it passes 30W, it will get a floater. So yes, it should get a floater sometime tomorrow.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
*gulp*
"Throughout its path, Irene caused widespread destruction and at least 25 deaths; monetary losses to the Caribbean could be as high as US$3.1 billion according to preliminary estimates.[3] Early damage estimates in the US are about $7 billion.[4]"
From Wiki.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Has anyone seen or heard from Bahahurricane since Irene?
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will 92l be in the floater tomorrow or is that to early for the satelites to pick it up?
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1725. hotrods
When 92L developes and models have a better handle on the system, keep on eye on the TVCN model. Looks like thats the one the NHC seems to go with at times, imo.
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1724. Walshy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In all fairness, the ECMWF only showed slight strengthened of Irene before landfall, but because the pressure was already so low, it made it appear to make the system a Category 5.


I see what you mean..
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:




This is a big change from earlier today.


can u post the earlier one
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Quoting lottotexas:
and what about other storms at that location ?



lol


you guys are on your own lol
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:




This is a big change from earlier today.

how so?
Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1040
Quoting washingtonian115:
September could be quite active this year.I think that's when we'll see most of our hurricanes/majors.


with 6 named storms in august, and a 7th on the way!? oh yes we will see an active september, we are ahead of last year, and we all know how last year was hyper-active...
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Quoting zerveftexas:

I wish people would stop trying to police the blog and tell people what to do for the sake of political correctness.


Puerto Rico was hit very hard on one side by Irene. Irene certainly wasn't a fish storm prior to a US landfall. His post wasn't for political politeness, just a statement of fact.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
1715. owntime
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.



Big smile, that pup is so cute.
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This is a big change from earlier today. All of the BAM tracks went N around 40W. Not so any more.
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Quoting Walshy:


I could be wrong but didn't the ECMWF bomb out Irene at a Cat5 over the OBX?

Not the best intensity model IMO. Track, is another story..



Sometimes we call the ECMWF the ECMWTF when it comes to intensity. Often, I blend the ECMWF's track with the GFS's intensity for a short range prediction.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
Quoting Tazmanian:




here is where Ivan from

plz note this is for Ivan and not for 92L

18 GMT 9.7 27.6 30 1009 Tropical Depression



this is where 92L is


28/2345 UTC 9.3N 24.4W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic




we may see a track this like this







has you can see storms this far S dont go out too sea
and what about other storms at that location ?
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1711. 7544
could that blob east of fla form some n models are now picking up on it sending ssw for a while thanks this home grown system need to be watched
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Gotta go folks.See ya tomorrow.
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Quoting Walshy:


I could be wrong but didn't the ECMWF bomb out Irene at a Cat5 over the OBX?

Not the best intensity model IMO. Track, is another story..



In all fairness, the ECMWF only showed slight strengthened of Irene before landfall, but because the pressure was already so low, it made it appear to make the system a Category 5.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Has nothing to do with weather, but here is my pup McKenzie. Hope it brings a smile.

never ever buy anything that eats.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Dont be surprised, big bad september is upon us...the dreaded september....especially with a strong high pressure system over the central and extreme west atlantic. This set up for the month is scaring me as an NC resident. Irene BARELY missed my area with those TS winds.
September could be quite active this year.I think that's when we'll see most of our hurricanes/majors.
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1705. Walshy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In intensity? Possibly...The ECMWF goes as far as to say we will have a Category 5 hurricane next week.


I could be wrong but didn't the ECMWF bomb out Irene at a Cat5 over the OBX?

Not the best intensity model IMO. Track, is another story..

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Quoting Walshy:
It's very common for models to show the north turn too fast with invests off of Africa.

Lets watch 92L progress westward these next several days before talking sharp north turns.

Okay so the models have a northward pull normally on somthing that will spin up quickley? So just wait and see until somthing develops and they will have more weight in them.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


It'll be interesting to see which gets eaten or spun off by the other (if they're close enough.)
Like last year.When multiple waves were coming off and competing and trying to become the dominate feature.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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