Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting rkay1:
Yeah -- I'll definitely lose sleep over this.




poor baby
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting Tazmanian:
if you are driveing a round in VT tonight with all the major flooding going on plzs think about whereing a life jacket now that night is falling and you can see the roads and not sure how deep the water is


If you don't want to take that risk, turn around don't drown!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1848. snotly
Let not this weak, unknowing hand
Presume Thy bolts to throw,
And teach damnation round the land
On each I judge Thy foe.
If I am right, Thy grace import
Still in the right to stay;
If I am wrong, oh teach my heart
To find that better way!
Save me alike from foolish pride,
Or impious discontent,
At aught Thy wisdom has denied,
Or aught that goodness lent.
Teach me to feel another’s woe,
To right the fault I see;
That mercy I to others show,
That mercy show to me.



Quoting twincomanche:


Quoting doubtit:
If anyone has taken a basic college psycology course, you would understand these "Trolls" have been bullied their wholie lives. They are shut ins that never fit in. In real life face to face they are whimps, and wouldn't stand up to anyone. They are very sad people with an even sadder existance.
While they are truly annoying, you should feel sorry for them


There are a lot of people I feel sorry for but that doesn't mean I need to put up with their shortcomings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1847. hahaguy
Just saw some video of the major flooding from VT. It looks like the flooding that happens in Central America after a storm.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Maybe you should google Irene and the Catskills or Vermont. There are 25 dead at last count. And sadly, that is likely to climb in numbers. You are only here to annoy people. Sad.


There was also a lot of damage done in NC and VA, even 100 miles inland in VA, we had significant damage, the damage, even the timing was very similar to Isabel.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm standing seriously in respect to the 25 killed during Irene...


Keep standing Stand right there. Stand there for the 25 souls lost during Irene. I'll stand for the thousands of soldiers fighting and dying right now that the media seems to have forgotten about.

BTW, Navy 1986
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Quoting ackee:
that what had made me belive that this wont be a fish storm at all


nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting zerveftexas:
Anyone who surfs in a hurricane is stupid. Then again, most surfers smoke pot, so it could be expected....


that is stereotypical.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
if you are driveing a round in VT tonight with all the major flooding going on plzs think about whereing a life jacket now that night is falling and you can see the roads and not sure how deep the water is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
"So far, insurance industry estimates give a very rough tally of between $3 billion to $5 billion in insured losses. Of course, the total economic impact could be much greater." Economic losses less then feared.

Economic losses and insured losses or losses caused by damages directly related to the storm itself are discrete losses. All economic losses might be tough to pin down but insured losses less so.

Not to downplay the seriousness and effects of Irene but I doubt she will directly have "25 billion" in insured losses or even total economic losses.

That said, I do wonder about the extent of economic losses due to closing the ports, the airports, and all transportation.
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Quoting rkay1:
Your insane! I had a puddle in my driveway and personally experienced 20 mph SUSTAINED winds.



WHERE DO YOU LIVE?????
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
There are trolls who type in capital letters and those who just come in and type outragiously. There are three of the latter currently.

It is dark now up north and that is hampering rescues. People are on the internet trying to get in touch with friends and family and trying to find out what happened in specific areas. My family is safe, but my heart goes out to everyone still searching for theirs.
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Quoting BanTech:
Most over-hyped storm EVER.


Whats up Bean?
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1834. ackee
Quoting Tazmanian:



mode runs are way off they have it at 10N 92L is at 9.3N



that what had made me belive that this wont be a fish storm at all
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1833. bassis
My ignore list is starting to smoke tonight
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Quoting rkay1:
+1 Apparently we are the only 2  that see things like that.



Where do you live?

Have you even looked at the damage pics?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting greenmtboy:


It sure is! We have these steep mountain valleys with nowhere for the water to spread out. I heard people are trapped in Wilmington, Vermont. The flood waters have turned the village into an island with no way off there.



this adding too the damg
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting Tazmanian:
VT is geting hit hard too tonight with flooding


It sure is! We have these steep mountain valleys with nowhere for the water to spread out. I heard people are trapped in Wilmington, Vermont. The flood waters have turned the village into an island with no way off there.
Member Since: August 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
Quoting embarrassing:
called all the family and friends, numbering 15 or so, who were in the direct path of Irene. nothing big to report, they said.


Maybe you should google Irene and the Catskills or Vermont. There are 25 dead at last count. And sadly, that is likely to climb in numbers. You are only here to annoy people. Sad.
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Windham, NY

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting 3211976:
This are some storms that developed near 10N or below




Since the 1990s the only hurricane that has gone out so sea that developed below 10N is Isidore a late September Hurricane



Georges had to be a nasty! storm.
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Quoting rkay1:
I personally believe these numbers are inflated and are that high to keep you paying more on your home insurance.  Yes, there will be exceptions to this.  I'm sure there are isolated events that occurred with Irene and some cities received the exception to the rule and got unusually bad conditions.  Overall, from what I viewed it looked like a glorified TS. 



Were you even affected by Irene????
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1815. JRRP
92L
Dmax soon
Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No.
That's what I thought, cause I was about to say what happened to Hugo, Camille, Gilbert, Georges, and Allen just to name a few.
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1813. 3211976
This are some storms that developed near 10N or below




Since the 1990s the only hurricane that has gone out so sea that developed below 10N is Isidore a late September Hurricane



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
VT is geting hit hard too tonight with flooding
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is this list adjusted to inflation?


No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Quoting embarrassing:
what a laugher. what "losses"? you mean all the commercial and consumer activity that didn't take place due to the insanity of closing down major cities all weekend in the summer for a rainstorm? these figures are completely fabricated.


You weren't even in Irene, I was, and we saw a lot of damage even 100 miles or more away from the center, so I suggest you keep your petty comments to yourself.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
watching this new invest here in ns... irene winding here a few power outages
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1804. doubtit
If anyone has taken a basic college psycology course, you would understand these "Trolls" have been bullied their wholie lives. They are shut ins that never fit in. In real life face to face they are whimps, and wouldn't stand up to anyone. They are very sad people with an even sadder existance.

While they are truly annoying, you should feel sorry for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1803. hahaguy
Quoting tropicfreak:


Lets hope the east coast doesn't see another strike in the next 3 weeks, we don't need one. I swear I thought the rapture was coming, I had an earthquake last Tuesday (epicenter was 30 miles NW of here) severe weather with some scary clouds moving in (shelf clouds) on Thursday, and the hurricane on Saturday. We don't need another east coast strike, by then we would still be recovering from Irene. Don't need a similar scenario that FL saw in 04, Frances and Jeanne.


That would not be good
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Taz I just realized your comments on here man if this was WOW you would be the supreme ruler, i think you would have the Sword of ulimate power.


lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rank Hurricane Season Damages
1 KATRINA 2005 $108 Billion
2 IKE 2008 $29.5 Billion
3 ANDREW 1992 $26.5 Billion
4 WILMA 2005 $21 Billion
5 IVAN 2004 $18.8 Billion
6 CHARLEY 2004 $15.1 Billion
7 RITA 2005 $12 Billion
8 FRANCES 2004 $9.51 Billion
9 ALLISON 2000 $9 Billion
10 JEANNE 2004 $7.66 Billion

According to early damage estimates...Irene would currently rank 8th.
Is this list adjusted to inflation?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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