Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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"The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions."

Link
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Quoting rkay1:
Well this will be the one to defy the statistics.  Trust me, Taz says so.




DONT PUT WORDS IN TOO MY MOUTH
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
1899. 3211976
If 92L manage to develop near or below 10N and keep moving wwnw for a while the possibilities of it becomin a fish storm will be greatly reduced

During the past 40 years only one hurricane that developed near or below 10N has become a fish storm, Isabel of 1996,  a late September storm when the fronts starts  eroding the Azores high
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Looks to me an upper-level lowpressurehas just developed over the east central caribbean. I am not good at judging when a low is upper or midlevel, so if its not an upper level system please correct me. note the spin over the eastern Caribbean

it was forecast a couple of days ago.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Latest satellite coming in from 92L indicates that it is beginning to develop a Central Dense overcast with some -80C cloud tops. This is a classic signature of a developing tropical cyclone, and could become 12L tomorrow morning.


Or 11PM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Latest satellite coming in from 92L indicates that it is beginning to develop a Central Dense overcast with some -80C cloud tops. This is a classic signature of a developing tropical cyclone, and could become 12L tomorrow morning.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
yo guys.. i know this was a bad storm for some..but i stuck it out in AC NJ despite evacs..and let me tell u..a noreaster thats 100 miles off the coast was worse then this..

first off THE "CAT 1 HURRICANE IRENE MADE LANDFALL OVER AC NJ SO I SHOULDA HAD THE WORSE EFFECTS AROUND HERE..THE RAIN WASENT AS MUCH AS A TRAINING THUNDERSTORM IN THE SUMMER- THE SURGE WASENT ANYTHING MORE THEN A NEW MOON AND A FOOT OR TWO RISE..THE OCEAN WAS AMAZINGLY BIG BUT NO BIG RISE..AND THE WINDS DIDNT MOVE A BEER CAN I THREW INTO MY FRONT LAWN..I DIDNT EVEN LOSE POWER...

ALL IN ALL THIS WAS A STRONG EXTRA TROPICAL STORM NEVER HAD HURRICANE WINDS AFTER VA AND THE CORE WAS NOT THERE..THERE WAS NO WIND WITH THE EYE WALL..BUT IT WAS NICE HAVING THE ISLAND TO MYSELF


Good to hear and thanks for your insight!
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Quoting 3211976:
This are some storms that developed near 10N or below




Since the 1990s the only hurricane that has gone out so sea that developed below 10N is Isidore a late September Hurricane



Donna, 1960: 21.5 / 10.2 BAD NEWS Aug,29 thru Sept,13
unnamed 1970: 15 / 9 died out
unnamed 1974: 19 / 10 died out
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Get this analyst, we were a little over 100 miles away from the center, to its NW, and we saw a gust of 71 mph.


Cool. Don't know officially what we got because we lost power, but I am guessing it was over 65 mph.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1889. DFWjc
Quoting zerveftexas:
Anyone who surfs in a hurricane is stupid. Then again, most surfers smoke pot, so it could be expected....


So I guess my friend is also stupid for surfing on the North Shore too? The only one I hate that he does now is the night surfing. BTW he doesn't smoke pot, just eats alot of macadamia nuts, LOL
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Be intresting to see if 92l goes from that to TS, seems to be the trend this year. Time will tell.
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Quoting number4steel:
i guess we live in rkay1 's world. if it didnt happen in at his house, it didnt happen. no hurricane, no 9/11, no moon landing, no santa claus , no easter bunny.....best way to be is the rkay way. all the rest of you folks who have been posting for years are just to short to see the real view of the world from the top of the ladder. ( rkay1 i.e. everyone else is a troll)


+1000
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1884. Walshy
North Carolina School Closings:

A

Alliance One Tobacco/Wilson
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 3211976:
This are some storms that developed near 10N or below




Since the 1990s the only hurricane that has gone out so sea that developed below 10N is Isidore a late September Hurricane





Here are the tracks of ALL tropical systems that have developed within 100 nm of 92L's most recent track position (9.3 N 24.0 W):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Quite a few never developed or twisted out to sea, actually.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...


Get this analyst, we were a little over 100 miles away from the center, to its NW, and we saw a gust of 71 mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Invest 92L now has a FB fan page :) Link
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Quoting 3211976:
This are some storms that developed near 10N or below




Since the 1990s the only hurricane that has gone out so sea that developed below 10N is Isidore a late September Hurricane





Valid points, but there's one thing missing. The storms that tracked further west remained weak and ramped up after they moved past 35W. Weak storm west of 35 W means a possible "game on".
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1879. Acorna
Where does the word "troll" compare to "wishcaster" then? :P

Had to work today, saw a group of ~30 people waiting for a local electronics store to open and the sporting goods store was packed as well. All this less than an hour after a curfew was lifted, and neither of these stores are that busy at that time typically. Very strange...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
Looks to me an upper-level lowpressurehas just developed over the east central caribbean. I am not good at judging when a low is upper or midlevel, so if its not an upper level system please correct me. note the spin over the eastern Caribbean



200mb Vort...Very much an upper level low. It's the same upper low that helped ventilate Irene.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Quoting weatherman566:
Sorry, but storms that form and ramp up east of 35W typically go out to sea. If the system remains weak, then 92L has a chance to move further west. I'm on the fish track, although it could be interesting with Bermuda.



sorry not going too be a FISH mode runs are way off on 92L they have it at 10N 92L is at 9.3N storms this far S do not go out too sea
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
1875. hahaguy
Doesn't Positive nao mean the ridge builds in more to the west?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks to me an upper-level lowpressurehas just developed over the east central caribbean. I am not good at judging when a low is upper or midlevel, so if its not an upper level system please correct me. note the spin over the eastern Caribbean

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL


Irene is gone and the nhc is still updateing here
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
please ya'all no more troll talk you are destroying this blog. the word troll is out numbering the words fish storm by about 10 to 1. How bad is that? sometimes less is better please just ignore anyone you deem a troll and spare this blog anymore bickering.
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Quoting rkay1:
Think about that.  This CAT1 storm caused 11 billion in damages?  I may be a little cynical but I'm not buying the numbers.  In FL they are still raising the Insurance Premos on Homes and we have been Hurricane free for 5 years+ 

Quoting CybrTeddy:


That would make a
grand early total of 11 billion dollars in damages, or the 8th most
destructive hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin. Mind you, that's just
alone by the early totals. It could be much higher

Remember the Boston-Washington DC Corridor has VERY high proporty values, so the damage numbers are "inflated"
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Quoting tropicfreak:


We had widespread damage here in the mid-atlantic, gave Isabel a run for her money. It got even worse down in eastern NC.


Yeah...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Report and Ignore just doesn't cut it tonight. To many distrubing comments. It used to be that a storm like this would bring Americans together. Tonight there are too many denying it even happened. But it did happen and the damage is widespread.

Good luck tonight for all those dealing with the aftermath of a very destructive Irene. Praying everyone has a dry warm bed to sleep in tonight.


Good Night all!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
Sorry, but storms that form and ramp up east of 35W typically go out to sea. If the system remains weak, then 92L has a chance to move further west. I'm on the fish track, although it could be interesting with Bermuda.
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Quoting IceCoast:
92L



we sould have TD 12 at any time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting twincomanche:
This isn't exactly weather related however when people talk about economic loses because people can't travel, it's just delayed nor lost. The economic modeling is just as muddled as the weather modeling sometimes.....maybe more.


That's a really good point.
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1863. DFWjc
Jim Cantore on NBC inbetween the game reporting on how this is the worst Hurricane for Vermont ever.
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dr m where are you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting Dragod66:
watching this new invest here in ns... irene winding here a few power outages


Showers have stopped again, but gusts are definitely picking up the past 15 minutes or so.
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92L
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting rkay1:
Yes, I have looked at the ISOLATED damage. My comments are in reference to the average.



We had widespread damage here in the mid-atlantic, gave Isabel a run for her money. It got even worse further SE down in eastern NC.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
i guess we live in rkay1 's world. if it didnt happen in at his house, it didnt happen. no hurricane, no 9/11, no moon landing, no santa claus , no easter bunny.....best way to be is the rkay way. all the rest of you folks who have been posting for years are just to short to see the real view of the world from the top of the ladder. ( rkay1 i.e. everyone else is a troll)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


There was also a lot of damage done in NC and VA, even 100 miles inland in VA, we had significant damage, the damage, even the timing was very similar to Isabel.


Yes. I don't think there is a state where Irene went through that doesn't have significant damage of one kind or another.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


If you don't want to take that risk, turn around don't drown!




so ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

And would knock Jeanne out of the list.
depends if those amounts are all converted to current rates.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.