Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2801 - 2751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index




LOOKS like a SPIN is trying to start in the Caribbean.......We need to watch this very close.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2799. scott39
If the NAO trends back towards the negative...TD twelves track favors getting closer to the Conus. Currently a positive NAO is in place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
The west casting will be in full force, once again.


YES!! it has to come to TX.....starting.....now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jasoniscoolman2015:
WHAT IS THAT!!!
Oh lord not again.Remember everybody. "!" and "-".Or press ignore.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
The west casting will be in full force, once again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
The big furnace also brings heat to us during the summer months.And it's causing the drought in Texas.Some people just don't make since.The Sun has everything to do with weather.Without the sun Earth will just be a big thing of rock floating in space.The sun also helps with plants.I can keep going down the list.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting MississippiBoy2:
mswx whats your thoughts on td 12?


Check out my blog. I made one last night on it, but it still applies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Japan may get hit again.
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


I do not like your graphical reports!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


HIGH Pressure is trying to build over the top right at the end......thata may not be a good thing......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
LOLOL. I'm not sure he phrased that statement exactly the way he wanted to
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's interesting to see this tropical wave flare up today. The NAM has been developing it into a moderate strength tropical storm and takes it to Louisiana in the next few days. However, there's not much support for the NAM solution.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mswx whats your thoughts on td 12?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:
upper level ac over 12

Looks like one is trying to set up over that other wave to.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting jpsb:
Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.


Are you serious? The sun has nothing to do with our weather? And who influence our weather then the munchkins? Dude do some research other than the world of warcraft cheat codes before posting. The sun has about everything to do with our weather, or what you think causes the oceans to warm up? A ginat furnace underneath? Gosh some people... and to say you guys have the right to vote is scary...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure why they didn't play this during Irene.It's almost "unprecedented".Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
upper level ac over 12

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:
Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.



NOPE they don't........its all about the Sun! Its all about $$$$$$$$$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
2772. Tijer
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I'm in Mississippi and I remember Katrina very well. My home gone, but the worst part is to go around trying to at least find some memories, photos or some other items which are of personal value. We were largely ignored, but to us it did not matter, because people in Mississippi did not need the attention we rebuilt our towns by ourselves and of course with the help of those who came down here to lend a hand. New Orleans, well, there are many who also suffered there and I can assure you that many of them where very decent people, but generally their reaction to the aftermath was quite different to ours. The reason they were devastated was mainly due to the levees giving way after so many warnings were given to their officials about the need to reinforce them. The lack of leadership also contributed to the disaster in evacuating the residents. But I know I will take heat for saying this and it will happen again and perhaps worse. I'm just glad to be living in the right side of the border.


NOLA was a man made disaster. From what I have seen, they have learned nothing. Thus, they will repeat it. Since then, my insurance has doubled, and I do not need/have flood. I will guess that thanks to Irene, it will double again. The first bill comes in October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2771. 7544
models already are starting to shift west with td 12 ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2770. jpsb
Quoting DVG:
New, convincing evidence indicates global warming is caused by cosmic rays and the sun

Come on man, give it up. You have to be crazy to believe the Sun has anything to do with climate here on Earth. Some people, just don't get it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting junie1:

I feel the same way im in the islands so i watch all systems until they clear us completely
Same here. Not taking any chances after Earl :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:









BELOW are the BAM models.......the light colored blue is the BAMS....the darkest is the BAMD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On these date we all know Katrina made landfall.Sadly her replacement "katia" wants to form today.By the way the media while doing Irene coverage was mentioning one of the Doc's most favorite word......"Unprecedented".
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16969
Quoting MississippiWx:
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM
UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE
EYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN
CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA
BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT
MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.
THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
HURRICANE!


Ok.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2764. junie1
Quoting ackee:
whach and see TD#12 track will shift futher WEST and south

I feel the same way im in the islands so i watch all systems until they clear us completely
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM
UNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE
EYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN
CONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA
BAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN
IT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT
MEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.
THIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
HURRICANE!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2762. jpsb
Quoting chawk:
inconspicuous little spin in the GOM just north of the Yucatan and the SE GOM is getting very wet. Got 3" of rain in 4 hours this morning in Palm Harbor.
I am so jealous! Plase send so of that rain to the Galveston-Houston area, Tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




The stronger she gets the further North and likely to move out to sea.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalGenesis:
--- From NWS - San Juan - They believe it will find the weakness to stay far away to the North of PR Sat/Sun.

NEWLY FORMED TD#12 XPCD TO BECOME TS KATIA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH WEAKNESS TO STEER THIS
POTENTIAL HURRICANE ON A NW TRACK AND KEEP IT AT A SAFE DISTANCE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE STORM
BECOMES AS INTENSE AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS THAT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
INTO THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND CREATING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
NEXT MON SEPT 05.



yipee! :D :D :D :D :D :D (saving gas money)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2741. Patrap 11:19 AM EDT on August 29, 2011

Not sure what you mean by last post but hope that all is well with you and your family and keep the faith. Once a storm hits the US as Irene did relatively early in the season and many lives were lost, I have lost some interest in following them as closely....Too much hype on WC for parts North of the Carolinas which took the brunt of the storm and too much hype on here from some bloggers hoping for US landfalls....My bud lost his Summer home on the Carolina Coast....What Can I Say?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is interesting to watch that loop of Katrina. What did cause that sudden weakening / deterioration (particularly on the western side) right before landfall? Just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fsumet:
Top 10 Analog Tracks for TD 12:

They do not want those posted, according to the text in the plot.

If we continue to do it anyway, they may restrict access. (which would suck, don't you think?)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear on the west side??



It was mainly the entrainment of dry continental air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2755. ackee
whach and see TD#12 track will shift futher WEST and south
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice link if you want to know for sure which states got affected. I say Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2753. emcf30
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah.


Actually, the photos you posted are from Windham,NY located in Greene County
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Wind shear on the west side??

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
I have been lurking on this site since 2004 and I have only posted once before. Im in Beaufort County, NC and this is the first opportunity I have had to get on line since Irene. There is lots of damage from Irene in Eastern NC. My parents were notified yesterday that their river house along the South side of the Pamlico river was destroyed. We managed to make it down there to survey the damage. Let me tell you, It is total devestation. I saw house after house lifted off foundations by the surge and blown into the swamp. I saw many homes and parts of homes that looked as if they had bomb explode within. It is the worst damage I have ever seen. We are hearing local reports that just in Beaufort and Hyde Counties more than 600 people have no homes to go back too. Tyrell county has not even been able to be surveyed yet due to flooding, fallen trees and lack of accesability. Sorry for the long post. I just wanted to get this information out. Irene may have been a category 1 storm, but in eastern NC it has had the storm surge and damage consistent with a category 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2801 - 2751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.