Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Anyone know if Irene passed through the Hebert Box? Was just thinking back to 5 years ago when they said there were two boxes and that 9/10 storms that passed through there hit Florida.
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Idiots.
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GTcooliebal that site is not allowing the image can you plzs up lode too imageshack
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
1946. DFWjc
Quoting snotly:
I don't wish to be a wishcaster or a doomcaster but the storm is trolling / turning north and will become a fish storm with a pinhole eye.




very good!
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Quoting weatherman566:


Eh, still don't buy your reasoning.

All of the models are ramping this system up fairly fast. If this system ramps into a hurricane before or at 35W, then it will likely try to move poleward and push further NW. High pressure might block it for a little bit, but once it finds that weakness....say around Bermuda or even further west, then it will move out.


One thing though, the model runs located it further north than it is. Models are trash until they have a correct center until then it's anyones guess
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More Irene right-side video from coastal Grotton CT during landfall:
Link

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Quoting dogsgomoo:
"So far, insurance industry estimates give a very rough tally of between $3 billion to $5 billion in insured losses. Of course, the total economic impact could be much greater." Economic losses less then feared.

Economic losses and insured losses or losses caused by damages directly related to the storm itself are discrete losses. All economic losses might be tough to pin down but insured losses less so.

Not to downplay the seriousness and effects of Irene but I doubt she will directly have "25 billion" in insured losses or even total economic losses.

That said, I do wonder about the extent of economic losses due to closing the ports, the airports, and all transportation.


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene could cost U.S. state and local governments billions of dollars in damages, but funds from the federal government might ultimately cover much of this expense.

It is too early to estimate the cost of the storm, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said New Jersey alone may have suffered tens of billions of dollars in damage.

Not to mention the flood damage that will spread from the mountains to the coastline and cause billions more. This is FAR from over.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can you guys plzs stop with that its starting too get annyouing that site no no longer yets you hot link
Wait how come it shows up on my computer?I mean I see it when I post it.
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Quoting violet312s:
And I really hope they up the limit on the ignore list.


You can delete most of them, as those handles have been banned.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can you guys plzs stop with that its starting too get annyouing that site no no longer yets you hot link


Some people don't know Taz, relax.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting MississippiWx:


Taz, some people don't know. It's alright...just kindly tell them it's not allowing the image.




ok will do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
Quoting Tazmanian:



can you guys plzs stop with that its starting too get annyouing that site no no longer yets you hot link


Taz, some people don't know. It's alright...just kindly tell them it's not allowing the image.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You welcome, actually I learned it from ProgressivePulse, he mentions it a lot on here & I think he uses the ECMWF model to illustrate that.





can you guys plzs stop with that its starting too get annyouing that site no no longer yets you hot link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
Quoting rkay1:
You, still.  I don't care if I get bashed for my opinion.  Its my opinion and I could careless if you agree or not.  I'm not here to force you to believe my opinion, although I cant really say the same for most of the people here.



If you got off your high horse for 5 seconds, maybe you wouldn't be bashed as much. I, for one, don't really care. You can say what you want. However, your holier-than-thou attitude is what's ticking off everyone.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
And I really hope they up the limit on the ignore list. The vast majority of us want to have a civil discussion on weather. The vermin minority want to inflame people.

Folks..PLEASE just click "Ignore User", Update Ignore List. Then go back to thread and refresh. They will be gone. Makes it much more informative.

And for goodness sakes please don't quote known trolls. If you feel a compelling urge to respond to trolls just quote the post number, not the idiocy they spew.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
1933. newbee
What is a troll? I mention newbee on my handle because I am new to weather blogs and want to learn more. Is a new person a troll? I just want to learn from all of your comments and also get a heads up on anthing that may head into the Gulf of Mexico as I live in Pensacola FL.

Question is, all of the patterns of the storms this year have gone north instead of into the Gulf. Does that mean it should hold out and no cape verde storms should hit the gulf this year ?
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1932. snotly
I don't wish to be a wishcaster or a doomcaster but the storm is trolling / turning north and will become a fish storm with a pinhole eye.


Quoting DFWjc:


troll, fish storm, moving/turning N, pinhole eye, wishcaster, doomcaster in that order...
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1931. RevInFL
Spoke with my friends in Lakeville, CT they said the Housatonic River is flooding in Falls Village and Gaylordsville. The Connecticut and Farmington Rivers are also flooding. For everyone who has been taking shots at the hype of Irene, all my family who sits in the dark and all those who lost their homes, would beg to differ.
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Quoting violet312s:
I can never understand why it makes sense to compare historical tracks. Weather is never EXACTLY the same at any given point in time. Yes might help for seasonal guidance but quoting individual past tracks does not make sense.
Well like someone said just a bit earlier I forget who. if a system is strong before 35 west it will have a tendency to go north. Thats a trend you cant ignore.
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1928. DFWjc
Quoting floridaT:
lol just once id like to be the first one to say is that a pinhole eye on a developing system


I'm sure a doomcaster troll, will call this a fish storm, moving/turning N, with a pinhole eye, and says he swears he's not a wishcaster.
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Quoting hahaguy:


Thanks.
You welcome, actually I learned it from ProgressivePulse, he mentions it a lot on here & I think he uses the ECMWF model to illustrate that.


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1913. rkay1 1:49 AM GMT on August 29, 2011


The reason you get bashed is for comments like this.

Violet is actually dead right about this because if the steering pattern is different than what past historical tracks say they should be, then those historical tracks are worthless.

Its not wish-casting, its being realistic, but what would you know about that? You think massive flooding and close to 25 deaths is a bust. You also are naive enough apparently to actually take what those news stations say to heart when you say they tagged this as the "end of the world" End of the World? Yea who is being over-dramatic now?
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Irene wasn't a wind storm for us but still caused alot of damage! Wind gusts were high and alot of tree damage and loss of power. No matter what everyone experienced either good or bad she was to be reconed with! We here in New England we say " No Mas".
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Crazy POV Irene right front quadrant surge video from Grotton CT near Mystic:
Link



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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L is really looking good right now i wounder if its going under RI


No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
Quoting DFWjc:


troll, fish storm, moving/turning N, pinhole eye, wishcaster, doomcaster in that order...
lol just once id like to be the first one to say is that a pinhole eye on a developing system
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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry not going too be a FISH mode runs are way off on 92L they have it at 10N 92L is at 9.3N storms this far S do not go out too sea


Eh, still don't buy your reasoning.

All of the models are ramping this system up fairly fast. If this system ramps into a hurricane before or at 35W, then it will likely try to move poleward and push further NW. High pressure might block it for a little bit, but once it finds that weakness....say around Bermuda or even further west, then it will move out.
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Quoting mehmattski:


Here are the tracks of ALL tropical systems that have developed within 100 nm of 92L's most recent track position (9.3 N 24.0 W):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Quite a few never developed or twisted out to sea, actually.
just found that site. informative
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Quoting BeanTech:
Many of you are missing the point.

Most of us here are weather fanatics.
The average Joe, sitting at home watching TWC or CNN, is not.

The way the media portrayed this storm was insane. Seems to me that every town in its path was simply concerned with not being the next Ray Nagin, so they over-reacted in a huge way.

Were there damages? Sure.
Did some people die? Undoubtedly.

Was this a monster of a storm that brought the NE to its knees and will take months to recover from? Not even close.

I can guarantee you the next time a Cat 3 sets its sights on the NE, people are going to laugh and say "remember what they said about Irene? She wasn't that bad"

What a joke....



I think you're missing the point. For one thing, there is extensive flooding which has caused a massive amount of damage and it's going to result in billions of dollars in damages.

Secondly, you're basically saying that people should not prepare. The lack of preparation is what made Katrina even more of a disaster. Even if Irene was over-hyped, so what? People died, people lost their homes, and for you to sit here and act like it's not a big deal is very sad. If you had just lost your home or had a family member die, you would have a totally different view.
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92L is really looking good right now i wounder if its going under RI
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Quoting duranta:
Vermont enduring catastrophic flooding due to Irene. She gave a parting shot to the U.S.
Massachusetts/ Conn. will get that flooding soon, as the water goes down the Hoonic and Hoonitonic as well as the Deerfield river, so it wont be over for a few days.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL


Irene is gone and the nhc is still updateing here


Not gone here yet, Taz, but not as bad as she could have been.
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1911. DFWjc
Quoting floridaT:
please ya'all no more troll talk you are destroying this blog. the word troll is out numbering the words fish storm by about 10 to 1. How bad is that? sometimes less is better please just ignore anyone you deem a troll and spare this blog anymore bickering.


troll, fish storm, moving/turning N, pinhole eye, wishcaster, doomcaster in that order...
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Quoting rkay1:
So you don't think it will go West?




yes it will go W and not be a fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
Irene is now causing damage in Canada.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1908. 3211976

Quoting weatherman566:


Valid points, but there's one thing missing. The storms that tracked further west remained weak and ramped up after they moved past 35W. Weak storm west of 35 W means a possible "game on".
Valid point, Agree
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I can never understand why it makes sense to compare historical tracks. Weather is never EXACTLY the same at any given point in time. Yes might help for seasonal guidance but quoting individual past tracks does not make sense.
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
1905. hahaguy
Quoting GTcooliebai:
"The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions."

Link


Thanks.
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1903. duranta
Vermont enduring catastrophic flooding due to Irene. She gave a parting shot to the U.S.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Or 11PM.
Ships models are hoping for this lol.
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"The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions."

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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