Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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2001. A4Guy
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're probably in the clear since the models are pointing at you from the start. The Lesser Antilles are the ones who should be worried. :-)

Lol...Kidding, of course. You have over a week to watch this one.


I said the same thing with Irene last week. The best place to be is at the end of the day 5 cone when the NHC issues their advisory. Every time I have been in the first coupe of cones...the storm passed far away from me!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Anyone got the link for ATCF renumbering Page


Link
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Quoting JupiterX:
Guys I know Bermuda is a small target but after getting some 40-50 mph winds from Jose today I want no part of any more 100 + mph winds. Unfortunately the most recent model runs show potential for trouble.


Well, if they have it coming to you now then it's a sure bet it will not
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Troll:

One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument.
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Quoting rkay1:
You, still.  I don't care if I get bashed for my opinion.  Its my opinion and I could careless if you agree or not.  I'm not here to force you to believe my opinion, although I cant really say the same for most of the people here.

well said even though i don't agree dosnt mean i should disrespect you or your opinion. on the topic of past storms we have a unique feature this year with the high pressure dry air stuck over texas. I think the last time that occurred was during the dust bowl years. Does anyone know the history of storm tracks during the dust bowl years?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
No RENUMBER yet


all most 11pm we could see one at any time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Anyone got the link for ATCF renumbering Page
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Quoting JupiterX:
Guys I know Bermuda is a small target but after getting some 40-50 mph winds from Jose today I want no part of any more 100 + mph winds. Unfortunately the most recent model runs show potential for trouble.


You're probably in the clear since the models are pointing at you from the start. The Lesser Antilles are the ones who should be worried. :-)

Lol...Kidding, of course. You have over a week to watch this one.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
No RENUMBER yet
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8:00pm Advisories
The Latest
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)


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Guys I know Bermuda is a small target but after getting some 40-50 mph winds from Jose today I want no part of any more 100 + mph winds. Unfortunately the most recent model runs show potential for trouble.
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Last question the hebert box does it have to be anything passing it or does it have to be a td/ts/hurricane?


Strong hurricanes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep, sure does.
Cool, I'll just link it from now on, unless I feel it necessary to show the image.
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Quoting mcluvincane:



Taz, looks like you may have a blog stalker on your hands




i no am this about ready too poof him
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
1986. DFWjc
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Last question the hebert box does it have to be anything passing it or does it have to be a td/ts/hurricane?


I don't think a simple wave would count? gang, anyone?
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Quoting JupiterX:


I fear this will be a repeat of Fabian.


92L is hundreds and hundreds of miles away from you...Do not start freaking out yet, lol. There is a possibility it never develops, or passes south of you.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting rkay1:
Ok now your backing down from your steadfast prediction of a definite West movement and saying lets just wait and see?  I know your probably not used to people challenging your wishcasting predictions but I refuse to.




Taz, looks like you may have a blog stalker on your hands
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Last question the hebert box does it have to be anything passing it or does it have to be a td/ts/hurricane?
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It just sux that 92L doesnt get a floater yet because of longitude lol. thinking it WILL have one tomorrow, then i can breathe hehe
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Quoting JupiterX:
Guys I am really scared of 92L I live in Bermuda and apparently it's coming right towards us.


As of this hour, your odds are better of finding a needle in a haystack.
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Quoting rkay1:
Ok now your backing down from your steadfast prediction of a definite West movement and saying lets just wait and see?  I know your probably not used to people challenging your wishcasting predictions but I refuse to.




this storm is a wait and see storm this need too watch and wait too see where it gos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
1979. A4Guy
Quoting victoriahurricane:


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene could cost U.S. state and local governments billions of dollars in damages, but funds from the federal government might ultimately cover much of this expense.

It is too early to estimate the cost of the storm, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said New Jersey alone may have suffered tens of billions of dollars in damage.

Not to mention the flood damage that will spread from the mountains to the coastline and cause billions more. This is FAR from over.


Governors, and all politicians, in general, need to avoid making any comments that minimize the impacts from a storm...or they risk not getting FEMA money.
NC governor is talking about how much worse the damage is than they expected...and we all know that's not really true, considering that "expectations" were for a Cat3/4 storm.
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Quoting JupiterX:


I fear this will be a repeat of Fabian.


Lol...No reason to fear anything at this point.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here does this work?



OK
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ty everyone as usual for all the good info. i am off to the northeast to report for orientation and to get a pile of claims.....i thank god i am blessed with the ability to help others when they need help the most..... when i have the computer up and running i will give you an update of what i see on the ground.


take care and everyone stay safe :)
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Quoting mehmattski:


Here are the tracks of ALL tropical systems that have developed within 100 nm of 92L's most recent track position (9.3 N 24.0 W):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Quite a few never developed or twisted out to sea, actually.
could you post within 200mi ?
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I fear this will be a repeat of Fabian.
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1971. DFWjc
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Anyone know if Irene passed through the Hebert Box? Was just thinking back to 5 years ago when they said there were two boxes and that 9/10 storms that passed through there hit Florida.


Yes it did
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Quoting JupiterX:
Guys I am really scared of 92L I live in Bermuda and apparently it's coming right towards us.



mode runs will change many of time and its days a way and may not head that way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Anyone know if Irene passed through the Hebert Box? Was just thinking back to 5 years ago when they said there were two boxes and that 9/10 storms that passed through there hit Florida.
Yes, right through the Eastern Hebert Box
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42.3n73.3w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Irene's_12amGMT_ATCF
42.1n73.3w, 44.2n72.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 28August_12amGMT and ending 29August_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent TropicalStormIrene's path
and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Irene's travel-speed was 26.2mph(42.1k/h) on a heading of 22.3degrees(NNE)
TS.Irene was headed toward passage over SaintJoseph-de-Beauce,Quebec for the 6amGMT

Copy&paste 36.7n75.7w-38.1n75.0w, 38.1n75.0w-40.3n74.1w, 40.3n74.1w-42.1n73.3w, 42.1n73.3w-44.2n72.1w, ma18, 5b9, 42.1n73.3w-46.3n70.8w, yqb into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 28August_6pmGMT)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Here does this work?



Yep, sure does.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Bean they said that about Houston after Rita -- when Ike came-- they left!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Dont forget to Like Invest 92L Face book Fan page
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes.
So much for messing with the statistics.
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1963. newbee
Thank you twincomanche
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Guys I am really scared of 92L I live in Bermuda and apparently it's coming right towards us.
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Quoting rkay1:
rkay1: Well this will be the one to defy the statistics.  Trust me, Taz says so.
Tazmanian: DONT PUT WORDS IN TOO MY MOUTH
rkay1: So you don't think it will go West?
Tazmanian: yes it will go W and not be a fish

I'm slightly confused Taz.  Will this be THE ONE to defy the statistics and make it West or not?  I don't wanna put words into your mouth, so please correct me.



this follow the storm and you find out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Here does this work?

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1958. RevInFL
Below is a link to an article about the Connecticut flooding.


Link
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Quoting floridaT:
Well like someone said just a bit earlier I forget who. if a system is strong before 35 west it will have a tendency to go north. Thats a trend you cant ignore.


Also, as I understand it, those past tracks are plugged into the statistical models, although probably not into the dynamic models. Climatological patterns offer some guidance to the future, although not as much as current conditions, obviously.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Wait how come it shows up on my computer?I mean I see it when I post it.



it may show up on your computer but when you post it that what it come up with
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
1930. rkay1 1:55 AM GMT on August 29, 2011

LMAO you are such a hypocrite

You spend 95% of your time on here bashing everyone's' opinion

Sucks when the shoe is on the other foot doesn't hit?
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Anyone know if Irene passed through the Hebert Box? Was just thinking back to 5 years ago when they said there were two boxes and that 9/10 storms that passed through there hit Florida.


Yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting BeanTech:


Please show me where I said people should not prepare.
I'll wait......

Also, please show me where I said there were no damages.
I'll wait again.....

When you are done making my statements for me, maybe you can actually read my post.

My issue is with how the media portrayed this storm.
And how people are going to view the next storm, based on what happened this time.

Irene should have been billed as "a strong hurricane with potential to cause serious damages and loss of life" ... nothing more, nothing less. Instead, the media outlets chose to bill it as Stormzilla and blow it out of the water.

Mark my words...when the next serious threat comes moving up the eastern seaboard, you are going to have alot of "boy who cried wolf" mentalities that is going to make it that much worse.



With such a massive storm, there was massive potential. Hindsight is 20/20. We can all sit here now and say that Irene only caused significant damage instead of catastrophic damage. However, when a hurricane is consistently holding Cat 3 and Cat 4 pressures, the potential is there for the storm to be a huge problem. I don't think you realize how close it was to becoming "Stormzilla".
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Anyone know if Irene passed through the Hebert Box? Was just thinking back to 5 years ago when they said there were two boxes and that 9/10 storms that passed through there hit Florida.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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