Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2051 - 2001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Quoting congaline:
Friends in Vt are stranded on their farms with no roads to get into town for supplies, as many many roads and bridges are simply gone. For many in NE this storm was "Stormzilla" They are not used to such events as we seasoned Southerners are.
Vermonters are a hardy breed.
They could teach most of us how to deal with snow, or a blizzard or ice storm. But they have no experience with tropical rains, and I think maybe they were let down by local and federal officials. I don't recall reading any mention in the NHC discussions of inland flooding as serious and far away as Vermont. Just one specific mention of the possibility of catastrophic flash flooding within minutes would have been smart, in retrospect. I'm sure the NHC is beating themselves up about the situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2050. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


The 18z GFS had 92L absorbing the disturbed area behind it.


See the vort maps to see it is the other way around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hebert Box #1 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 60-65 degrees West (60-65W). This box is for only August and September major hurricanes which have hit southeast Florida after passing through the box. While passing through the box, the tropical cyclone can have any strength from a tropical depression to a category 5.


Hebert Box #2 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 80-85 degrees West (80-85W). This box is for only late September and October major hurricanes which have hit south Florida after forming in the western Caribbean Sea and passing through the box.

Previously existing hurricanes which are moving through the box towards the west or northwest and have not formed in the area are not to be considered. Tropical cyclones which form west of 85W and east of 80W either do not hit south Florida, or weaken to less than a major hurricane (winds 110 mph, or less), before hitting south Florida.

Link
that website is a little skewed on the explanation. Hebert's Box explanation can be much better seen here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Next model runs should be interesting. The last GFS developed the one on the coast not 92L, it showed 92L been absorbed by that spin. But it is evident 92L is the one developing now.


The 18z GFS had 92L absorbing the disturbed area behind it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2047. Grothar
Quoting bluenosedave:


Not to be picky, but that's straw, not hay. ;-)



Hey?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is that going to be 93L behind 92L?


For what it's worth, the GFS has been developing it for the last several days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this blog is fool of fishcaster too nigth ugh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2044. JLPR2
Next model runs should be interesting. The last GFS developed the one on the coast not 92L, it showed 92L been absorbed by that spin. But it is evident 92L is the one developing now.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is that going to be 93L behind 92L?


If they can get enough distance between each other, it's possible. However, I believe that 92L is going to eat that area of disturbed weather as 92L has a pretty large circulation.

The GFS shows that happening too. Notice the area behind 92L is gone after the 12 hour frame.

12 hours out:



24 hours out:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting floridaT:
has anyone heard if they got the people out that were stranded at a hotel surrounded by rising water?


One elderly woman died. It was in the Catskills.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3166
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is that going to be 93L behind 92L?
Gonna follow it out to sea, we can all hope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very good news
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bluenosedave:


Not to be picky, but that's straw, not hay. ;-)
Called out Groth.LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Is that going to be 93L behind 92L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2037. JLPR2
Looking really nice on EUMETSAT.


Gro, where is the globe? You're neglecting us. xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
Yep.
are they all ok?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
has anyone heard if they got the people out that were stranded at a hotel surrounded by rising water?


yes they were rescused a few hrs ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:




Not to be picky, but that's straw, not hay. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
has anyone heard if they got the people out that were stranded at a hotel surrounded by rising water?
Yep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2032. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Grothar...How are you doing?


Fine. Nice pup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DFWjc:


Hey Miss, are those storms far apart from one another so they both can develop?


Probably not. It looks like 92L is taking away all the energy from the one just off the coast.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
has anyone heard if they got the people out that were stranded at a hotel surrounded by rising water?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Friends in Vt are stranded on their farms with no roads to get into town for supplies, as many many roads and bridges are simply gone. For many in NE this storm was "Stormzilla" They are not used to such events as we seasoned Southerners are.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RKAY1, Wumail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2027. 7544
yellow circle off the east coast of fl soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow this has been a busy season. Lots of smaller storms mostly, besides Irene and Alex back in the beginning.

SSTs sure are running warm, anyone have a map of how they compare to other years?

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Grothar...How are you doing?
He must have nodded back off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2024. JLPR2
Quoting JupiterX:


Quick question if it develops really fast is there any weakness that could perhaps make it recurve significantly east of Bermuda?


All I see out there is Irene and Jose, but Irene is already getting ready to exit and Jose isn't strong enough, so it would gain some latitude but not recurve, it needs a decent trough to recurve and that one is supposed to come later. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Tropical Depression 12: COMING SOON!
Sponsored by Gillette..The number one razor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even more crazy hurricane video from New England shot this morning during landfall. This storm was huge and amazing how wide reaching the RFQ impacts were:
Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
Is that a pinhole eye? There i was first to say it


let's go ahead and send out an evacuation order for Bermuda lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2020. PR51
Could it be possible to have 92L in the vicinity of Puerto Rico? I think 92L will recurve before reaching 40W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2019. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
XXN/XXW
OUT OF RANGE


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55518
Quoting JLPR2:
92L is looking more and more like a tropical cyclone.
Is that a pinhole eye? There i was first to say it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Tropical Depression 12: COMING SOON!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In my opinion, and there is no right answer, but I think the evacuations and closures of transit systems etc for Irene, was valid.

That is one powerful storm, could have definetly been worse, and could have definetly been better as far as how things turned out.

All the best to those out there working on the situations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hebert Box #1 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 60-65 degrees West (60-65W). This box is for only August and September major hurricanes which have hit southeast Florida after passing through the box. While passing through the box, the tropical cyclone can have any strength from a tropical depression to a category 5.


Hebert Box #2 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 80-85 degrees West (80-85W). This box is for only late September and October major hurricanes which have hit south Florida after forming in the western Caribbean Sea and passing through the box.

Previously existing hurricanes which are moving through the box towards the west or northwest and have not formed in the area are not to be considered. Tropical cyclones which form west of 85W and east of 80W either do not hit south Florida, or weaken to less than a major hurricane (winds 110 mph, or less), before hitting south Florida.

Link
Thx GT)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
92L is looking more and more like a tropical cyclone.


Quick question if it develops really fast is there any weakness that could perhaps make it recurve significantly east of Bermuda?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Grothar...How are you doing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2012. DFWjc
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey Miss, are those storms far apart from one another so they both can develop?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2011. JLPR2
92L is looking more and more like a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bean NO! You are saying people wont listen because of the hype in acutality they do. When situations like this happen it changes a lot of peoples thinking. It is mother nature and she can not to be taken lightly. If the hype was not there then some folks would not even know anything is happening. We get so caught up in the day to day grind without constant hype things could have been a lot worse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting mcluvincane:


Well, if they have it coming to you now then it's a sure bet it will not


I guess, hopefully it will recurve east, or maybe the AB high will build and it will go farther west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting violet312s:
And I really hope they up the limit on the ignore list. The vast majority of us want to have a civil discussion on weather. The vermin minority want to inflame people.

Folks..PLEASE just click "Ignore User", Update Ignore List. Then go back to thread and refresh. They will be gone. Makes it much more informative.

And for goodness sakes please don't quote known trolls. If you feel a compelling urge to respond to trolls just quote the post number, not the idiocy they spew.


You can have unlimited ignored users. This blog is nuts. I've been here for 3 years and 3 days ago I had 25 users ignored. I now have approaching 50 and it doesn't look to stop soon. I'm tired of all the BS Irene was nothing people. Every single person who says something like that is on my ignore list, I'm done with these idiots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the WSJ 9:10 PM:
After braving Tropical Storm Irene’s torrents of rain Sunday, New Yorkers were bracing for a snarled commute Monday, as transit officials scrambled to resuscitate the nation’s largest transit system.

Some trains would run, officials said late Sunday. New York's subways would be largely operational, with the exception of some express trains and lines in the Rockaways. Officials warned that trains would likely be less frequent and more crowded.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hebert Box #1 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 60-65 degrees West (60-65W). This box is for only August and September major hurricanes which have hit southeast Florida after passing through the box. While passing through the box, the tropical cyclone can have any strength from a tropical depression to a category 5.


Hebert Box #2 is defined as the area between 15-20 degrees North (15-20N) and 80-85 degrees West (80-85W). This box is for only late September and October major hurricanes which have hit south Florida after forming in the western Caribbean Sea and passing through the box.

Previously existing hurricanes which are moving through the box towards the west or northwest and have not formed in the area are not to be considered. Tropical cyclones which form west of 85W and east of 80W either do not hit south Florida, or weaken to less than a major hurricane (winds 110 mph, or less), before hitting south Florida.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2003. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


As of this hour, your odds are better of finding a needle in a haystack.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterX:
Guys I know Bermuda is a small target but after getting some 40-50 mph winds from Jose today I want no part of any more 100 + mph winds. Unfortunately the most recent model runs show potential for trouble.


Don't worry about the model runs...Don't even worry about the system now. When the National Hurricane Center declares it, if they do, you should start WATCHING it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2001. A4Guy
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're probably in the clear since the models are pointing at you from the start. The Lesser Antilles are the ones who should be worried. :-)

Lol...Kidding, of course. You have over a week to watch this one.


I said the same thing with Irene last week. The best place to be is at the end of the day 5 cone when the NHC issues their advisory. Every time I have been in the first coupe of cones...the storm passed far away from me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2051 - 2001

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
50 °F
Partly Cloudy