Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting KoritheMan:

They originate from African easterly waves (tropical waves), which do come from the Cape Verde area. Perhaps that is what you are thinking. But as a rule, most Cape Verde hurricanes do indeed recurve.
So most do recure but arnt there some years were certain situations set up that allow them to continue further west? or am i still a Newb?
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Taz can make a forecast if he wants... his forecast is that 92L will affect land... why do you get on him and not on a meteorologist that says it will rain and you dont get rain?
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It seems like the centre of Jose is drifting southwards... perhaps to that convenction that's fanning out like an oversized fishtail? Jose's one weird looking storm... so small, but dragging a gigantic swath of convection to its south. It's certainly got a vigorous spin to it, considering the conditions should make it pretty much impossible for it to exist. Imagine if conditions were just fine? Jose could be a strong TS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It isn't that hard.
I'm not sure where, but I heard that 80% of them end up recurving. I don't doubt that.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

Dont know who you are but Thank you local power utility.


I know, I just thought of that!
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2096. Relix
Uuh guys Cape Verde storms are those formed before the 40W. After that they are not considered CV storms. If the wave develops after that it just formed in the CATL.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously. I don't think most people understand how difficult it is for a Cape Verde storm to find US soil.
like a needle in a hay stack, or a straw stack...
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2094. TX2FL
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yippee, another east coast hit :P


Noooo! If flights continue to be messed up my Mother in Law will NEVER LEAVE!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



so ture
Then why did you make it?

For the record, I would come down hard on anyone making such definitive long range prognostications, so don't single yourself out, Taz. I do love ya. :P
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Quoting Tazmanian:
not all cape verde storms are going too be a fish storm


and 92L wont be a fish


Hey Taz, I think 92L could be another East coast threat and that would be super bad news, its at a low latitude, if its below 15N at 45W , the chances of it curving out to sea and missing land becomes much less!
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invest_DEACTIVATE_al102011.ren
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Quoting klaatuborada:
I have to report a small miracle. As some of you know, I live on Cape Cod, and I have power. The majority of people on the Cape don't have any power, and right across the street, no power. No power in Hyannis, Marstons Mills, Yarmouth, Chatham, Falmouth, Woods Hole, and many other places, but where I am, in this little pocket, there is power. Thank you God!
Maybe you're on a hospital or other critical line. In any case, I hope you didn't jinx yourself.
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Curious why is the AB high forecast to be so weak is there an abundance of shortwaves in the US or something? Some abnormalities in the legendary Greenland gyre?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously. I don't think most people understand how difficult it is for a Cape Verde storm to find US soil.


It isn't that hard.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
2083. JLPR2
Quoting doabarrelroll:

uh Irene was a Cape Verde storm


Nope, Irene formed just east of the Lesser Antilles, not around the CV islands.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499

Quoting doabarrelroll:


Thats news to me. I thought most storms came from the Cape Verde area
They originate from African easterly waves (tropical waves), which do come from the Cape Verde area. Perhaps that is what you are thinking. But as a rule, most Cape Verde hurricanes do indeed recurve.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

You cannot accurately make that claim.



so ture
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2080. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:
Looking really nice on EUMETSAT.


Gro, where is the globe? You're neglecting us. xD



You know I would never neglect you people. I have turned by globe officially over to MiamiHurricane09, but if he is not available, TropicalAnylist can do it.

This may be the last time I ever post this.

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2079. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


More of just a merging of the two on those maps. Besides, the GFS is clearly way too weak with the 850 vort at intialization.

850mb Vort...



GFS Initialization...



Yeah now that you say it, they seem to merge, neither one winning out.
It seems the GFS doesn't have a good handle on it yet.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
2078. Dennis8
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seriously. I don't think most people understand how difficult it is for a Cape Verde storm to find US soil.


Ike did...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
and 92L wont be a fish
You cannot accurately make that claim.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
that website is a little skewed on the explanation. Hebert's Box explanation can be much better seen here.
Thx hunker much better..
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Quoting JLPR2:


Taz, you can't say that 100% sure.

It has a decent shot at becoming a fish or a Bermuda threat.


And it has an equally decent shot at impacting the Caribbean Islands/USA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting RussianWinter:


Historically cape verde storms have been fish more often than not


Seriously. I don't think most people understand how difficult it is for a Cape Verde storm to find US soil.
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Quoting Grothar:


Like, I grew up on a farm?


Like... long before Tractors even :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like no 12L at 11PM.



what time dos the atcf site update we need too wait for the next update so we see it after 11pm or a little tad later
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Oh, What A Night
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I have to report a small miracle. As some of you know, I live on Cape Cod, and I have power. The majority of people on the Cape don't have any power, and right across the street, no power. No power in Hyannis, Marstons Mills, Yarmouth, Chatham, Falmouth, Woods Hole, and many other places, but where I am, in this little pocket, there is power. Thank you God!
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2065. Dennis8
FINALLY Goodbye Texas Ridge and rain in the forecast from the tropics-- 107 today at iah 106 at my house

Houston NWS AFD DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PARADISE WITH RECORD 105+ TEMPS. EXPECT
A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS A MORE DEFINED
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES IN THE DAYS TO COME. UPPER RIDGE STILL
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD MIDWEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS
A TROF CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL TREK ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND WNW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT A SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN PUSHING INLAND LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURS BRINGING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO MOST OF SE TX.
THINK THESE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF/WEAKNESS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE
SHOWING CENTER OF THIS FEATURE SITUATED DUE NORTH OF SE TX FRI-SAT
WITH THE TROF AXIS STRETCHING DOWN THE I-45 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY PLACE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP EAST OF THAT AXIS...BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ACROSS THE MOST OF REGION ESP
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. IT`S STILL A GOOD 5 DAYS OUT AND DON`T
HAVE ENOUGH SKILL TO PINPOINT ITS LOCATION THIS FAR OUT (WHICH
MAKES A DIFFERENCE POP/QPF- WISE)...SO THINK THE CURRENT 30-50%
WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT
TIMING ISSUES AS TO WHEN THE UPPER WEAKNESS MOVES TO OFF TO THE
EAST BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO RAIN CHANCES. FWIW - ECMWF IS
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY...SOMETHING
THE 06Z GFS WAS ALSO HINTING AT
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Quoting JLPR2:


See the vort maps to see it is the other way around.


More of just a merging of the two on those maps. Besides, the GFS is clearly way too weak with the 850 vort at intialization.

850mb Vort...



GFS Initialization...

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2063. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Maybe the last straw.


After reading the blog today, that may not be too far from the truth.
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2062. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
not all cape verde storms are going too be a fish storm


and 92L wont be a fish


Taz, you can't say that 100% sure.

It has a decent shot at becoming a fish or a Bermuda threat.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8499
Quoting Tazmanian:
this blog is fool of fishcaster too nigth ugh


The Hype-caster is a new all time category, methinks.
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Looks like no 12L at 11PM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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2058. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Called out Groth.LOL.


Like, I grew up on a farm?
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not all cape verde storms are going too be a fish storm


and 92L wont be a fish
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Quoting Grothar:



Hey?


No, straw.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting doubtit:
If anyone has taken a basic college psycology course, you would understand these "Trolls" have been bullied their wholie lives. They are shut ins that never fit in. In real life face to face they are whimps, and wouldn't stand up to anyone. They are very sad people with an even sadder existance.

While they are truly annoying, you should feel sorry for them.


For what it's worth, the trolls tend to be low level anti-socials. And, they are usually the bullies themselves. They get "bullied" when people stand up to them, they get called on their actions, or they go up against another antisocial.

Be careful with that broad brush. A common tactic used by them is to portray the people that stand up to them as being the actual person behaving anti-socially. IE: The bully that that runs to the teacher when someone finally defends themselves instead of taking a beating or giving up money. "You and me are a lot alike." is another similar and common tactic they use to disarm victims and isolate them from the group. Unfortunately, common-sense seems to have latched on this idea that this is some kind of petty revenge for past injury. It's not. It's more like revenge for not giving them your lunch money willingly.

Their direct long-term victims are more likely to end up with anxiety disorders, basically becoming nervous wreaks (harmfully avoids social/sexual contact, obsessive need for order, clings to anyone that pays attention to them, etc...) rather than mirroring the callous lack of empathy and self control. The tools on the other hand...

Oh, and they want your pity. We let pitiful people get away with murder, sometimes literally.

OK...enough psych101... Can we get back to the weather now?
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Quoting congaline:
Friends in Vt are stranded on their farms with no roads to get into town for supplies, as many many roads and bridges are simply gone. For many in NE this storm was "Stormzilla" They are not used to such events as we seasoned Southerners are.


Yep, I always keep a spare bridge or two as part of my hurricane prep.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this blog is fool of fishcaster too nigth ugh


Historically cape verde storms have been fish more often than not
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting congaline:
Friends in Vt are stranded on their farms with no roads to get into town for supplies, as many many roads and bridges are simply gone. For many in NE this storm was "Stormzilla" They are not used to such events as we seasoned Southerners are.
Vermonters are a hardy breed.
They could teach most of us how to deal with snow, or a blizzard or ice storm. But they have no experience with tropical rains, and I think maybe they were let down by local and federal officials. I don't recall reading any mention in the NHC discussions of inland flooding as serious and far away as Vermont. Just one specific mention of the possibility of catastrophic flash flooding within minutes would have been smart, in retrospect. I'm sure the NHC is beating themselves up about the situation.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.