Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No Tropical Depression #12 at 11PM.


Not enough persistence yet for the NHC. If 92L is still looking like this or better at 5AM, then it will most likely be declared.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2150. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


You must not be too new if you already know that one...lol.

But yes, it's not a very good one. However, the GFS and Euro have hinted at this disturbance as well.


If I remember correctly the NAM was the first one to show Gert.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting MississippiWx:
Why must we go through this for every invest that pops off the African coast? Unless the models show a wave going due north almost immediately after coming off the coast, it has a chance to hit land down the road. It may be the smallest of chances, but it has a chance. 92L has a chance of affecting someone down the road. It also has a chance of going out to sea. At this point, it's 50/50 and no one knows for sure either way. We can use climatology to support both sides. Therefore, we still don't know.

Exactly. The chance is small. Means nothing to worry about!

Keep your eye on it and don't let it sneak up to you, but there is no need to cower in fear if there is a tropical storm forecast to strengthen and most likely to turn north away from land way before it even begins to approach the Lesser Antilles
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Its working! lol


Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...I know. Just trying to rile up some of the Gulf Coasters.
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2146. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Hmm as did I here in the Mid West.


PrivateIdaho and I always have good arguments about who grows the best potatoes. Long Island or Idaho. Long Island always grew Idaho potatoes, but Idaho got mad and put an injunction about using the name. So now back to reds and Long Island potatoes (which are the better than Idaho's) LOL
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Quoting CRepp28:
Link



My Irene Experience
Very good coverage. Thanks.
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No Tropical Depression #12 at 11PM.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Irene is history now at 11 PM
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This blog was great to read the last two days. Now that Irene is gone and we have our next typical ATL storm days away from anything remotely close to threatening land, the Andrewcasters/Gulfcasters/ItsnotfishifithitsBermud a-casters are all out. Same arguments every single time.
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81...Tropical Storm Lee? Lol

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting KoritheMan:

You're gonna rile some people up. LOL


Lol...I know. Just trying to rile up some of the Gulf Coasters.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting MississippiWx:


You must not be too new if you already know that one...lol.

But yes, it's not a very good one. However, the GFS and Euro have hinted at this disturbance as well.


Ok I hope you guys can get a good rain maker from it
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Quoting JupiterX:


Mississippi i am relatively new to the weather game but isn't the NAM usually a poor indicator of tropical cyclogenesis?


You must not be too new if you already know that one...lol.

But yes, it's not a very good one. However, the GFS and Euro have hinted at this disturbance as well.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2136. DFWjc
Quoting BeanTech:


Congrats...but god didn't give you power. It was simply luck of the draw. Do you seriously think a god said "hmmmm... I'm about to wipe out power to this entire area....but I really like this Klaatuborada person...so I'll spare them"? LOL



it's called having faith...eventho I'm down to my last 2 unemployment checks, I'm still thanking God for what i do have.
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Quoting BeanTech:


Congrats...but god didn't give you power. It was simply luck of the draw. Do you seriously think a god said "hmmmm... I'm about to wipe out power to this entire area....but I really like this Klaatuborada person...so I'll spare them"? LOL

*sigh*
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There will be some more fatalities with the flooding tonight especially in mountainous northern New England. I expect Irene will finish up with 30-35 dead and 7-10 billion dollars in damage.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8630
2133. Mclem1
Hey folks! Quite a week! I have a couple of questions. The first is, does anyone have a .gif file or an image animation that shows irene from developing stages to where she is now? I always love watching those animations and watching the storm move and form in fast motion like that! Also, can anyone explain to me why they name invests the way that they do? How do they decide on the number before the L?
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Why must we go through this for every invest that pops off the African coast? Unless the models show a wave going due north almost immediately after coming off the coast, it has a chance to hit land down the road. It may be the smallest of chances, but it has a chance. 92L has a chance of affecting someone down the road. It also has a chance of going out to sea. At this point, it's 50/50 and no one knows for sure either way. We can use climatology to support both sides. Therefore, we still don't know.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284

Quoting MississippiWx:
72 hours...

You're gonna rile some people up. LOL
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Quoting CRepp28:
Link



My Irene Experience
Thanks for posting that. I enjoyed the read.
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test
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Quoting MississippiWx:
72 hours...



Mississippi i am relatively new to the weather game but isn't the NAM usually a poor indicator of tropical cyclogenesis?
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2125. Tijer
Only the people in the path of the storm can make the decision if Irene was over hyped or not. The one thing that I would like to make note of, is that the storm really was pushing or sucking dry air from east of Puerto Rico. The NHC blew the side tour she took to Old San Juan. As well, mountain climbing in Hispaniola was definitely out of the question after the party in San Juan. If you go back and look, the dissipating high they called for then is the same one they are saying is still going to dissipate. That high is the source for all the dry air that kept Irene from growing to a Cat 5. BTW, that is the same high Texas would like to see go away.

Now with that said, I am currently in the Palm Beach area. When the storm was off the coast here, not much was said about it. But once the models projected a New York/ Long Island hit, the local media was all over it. Go Figure. LOL! What ever sells advertizing, I guess.
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this was hurricane Ivan(04) at start discussion

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS...

this is what I think 92L/TD12 will have

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS...
or something of the sort
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72 hours...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
2122. DFWjc
Quoting floridaT:
how do i add my pic to my messages?


add a pic and then set it to main
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2121. JLPR2
Quoting doabarrelroll:

How come Andrew is considered a Cape Verde storm and it formed in the Caribbean too? I never heard of this distinction. My understanding was a cape verde storm is a storm that formed from a wave that originated off of Africa


Check were Andrew formed.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting KoritheMan:

No, you're correct. I never denied that. There are exceptions to every rule.
Okay got it and i never doubted your opinion and explanation thx.
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2118. Bielle
Quoting klaatuborada:
I have to report a small miracle. As some of you know, I live on Cape Cod, and I have power. The majority of people on the Cape don't have any power, and right across the street, no power. No power in Hyannis, Marstons Mills, Yarmouth, Chatham, Falmouth, Woods Hole, and many other places, but where I am, in this little pocket, there is power. Thank you God!


You know anything about Wellfleet? Thanks.
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how do i add my pic to my messages?
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2115. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:



You know I would never neglect you people. I have turned by globe officially over to MiamiHurricane09, but if he is not available, TropicalAnylist can do it.

This may be the last time I ever post this.



Now I'm sad, that's almost a tradition. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Living in South Mississippi about 70 miles from the coast I am not liking the models for 92. And with that Texas high going away for a while...I will be on here even more. When will I ever get any work done?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
not all cape verde storms are going too be a fish storm


and 92L wont be a fish





All of these models show it to be a fish. That could change in the future but right now it's your classic Cape Verde fish storm that turns north in the middle of nowhere. It is NOT your classic major cape Verde hurricane that makes a land fall in South Florida, the Gulf, or the Carolinas, or heck even the Lesser and the Greater Antilles.

If it follows the models, unless it pulls an Ike and veers westsouthwest, project a mighty fish.
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2112. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


Like... long before Tractors even :)


Well, as you know, Orca and many of you others, I come from a farm family. I was born on a farm on Long Island. I worked on farms in Norway. In the summers I always worked on farms when we were here back in the US.
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2111. ackee
I 92l SHOULD BE UPGRADED to TD#12 AT 5AM also the area just off the coast could be 93L they are some distant apart
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test
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2109. CRepp28
Link



My Irene Experience
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
So most do recure but arnt there some years were certain situations set up that allow them to continue further west? or am i still a Newb?
No, you're correct. I never denied that. There are exceptions to every rule.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
that website is a little skewed on the explanation. Hebert's Box explanation can be much better seen here.
Thanks this one actually has percentages for strikes and not just FL. but North Carolina and Out to Sea and it gives exceptions to this rule ala Andrew, the Labor Day Hurricane, and Betsy.
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FWIW, the 00z NAM is out to 66 hours and has a possible TD in the Gulf. Forms from a weak tropical wave that's sneaking its way through the Western Caribbean.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284

Quoting doabarrelroll:

uh Irene was a Cape Verde storm
No Irene was not. For a storm to be considered in the "Cape Verde" variety, IIRC it has to form within 700 miles of the Cape Verde Islands. Irene was nearly at 60W when she developed.
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2104. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


And it has an equally decent shot at impacting the Caribbean Islands/USA.


That's true. :\ Brings Earl to mind, with its multiple adjustments until it almost hit PR instead of passing far away to north.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8733
Quoting BeanTech:


That's what she said. *rim shot*


No! No!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting KoritheMan:

They originate from African easterly waves (tropical waves), which do come from the Cape Verde area. Perhaps that is what you are thinking. But as a rule, most Cape Verde hurricanes do indeed recurve.


Yeah most Cape Verde storms are only waves in the Cape Verde islands those that develop into tropical cyclones in that area are somewhat different.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

They originate from African easterly waves (tropical waves), which do come from the Cape Verde area. Perhaps that is what you are thinking. But as a rule, most Cape Verde hurricanes do indeed recurve.
So most do recure but arnt there some years were certain situations set up that allow them to continue further west? or am i still a Newb?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.