Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting Tazmanian:




heh heh could not help it


Taz, you really need to stop talking to the trolls. You know it doesn't help. Please.
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2200. JRRP
where are the tropical waves ??
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Get em' Taz....lol

Quoting Tazmanian:




are you some kind of a nut or some in?
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GFS at one point showed a system developing in the Gulf, but no longer shows that solution.

NAM isn't great for tropical forecasts, but I think it has a better handle on the home-brew smaller storms vs Euro and GFS. Euro and GFS is great with the Cape Verde storms and larger systems in general this year.

In regards to 92L:

I'm not saying it's a fish storm yet, but if it forms this far east, the probability of it going out to sea is relatively high. I just like people to provide an explanation scientifically about why it won't be a fish storm. =)
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Quoting FLdewey:


Wow - cool shot. Very nice they saved it.
I know. It is a very old tree and was there long before the building was.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL! TAZ! THAT ISN'T NICE!




heh heh could not help it
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WTF?

Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
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oh JeffMaster we need you
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Quoting RussianWinter:

The hardest part would be to push past the end of the hurricane season.


Yeah, hurricanes like Wilma/Rita really jolted the 2005 ACE late in the season.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




are you some kind of a nut or some in?


LOL! TAZ! THAT ISN'T NICE!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31509
Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
WOW!!! look At crayon being used, we have NOW red and yellow cryon doodless ! WOW!!




are you some kind of a nut or some in?
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Quoting nofailsafe:


The local forecast office mentioned this, right now we've got a pretty good chance of rain later this week with some significantly cooler (low 90s) weather.


You are correct. Even the Birmingham office mentioned it this morning. The only reason I knew to look for it is because of those discussions. It will be interesting to see if it actually develops. However, the GFS/Euro have kept it mostly an open wave all the way to Texas.
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and just in time for the start of a school year no less. Give us a system with the orange crayon and we'll be set.

Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
WOW!!! look At crayon being used, we have NOW red and yellow cryon doodless ! WOW!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It would certainly be hard to achieve since we are well behind it at this point, but 2011 is going to have a large upswing in ACE the latter part of the season.

The hardest part would be to push past the end of the hurricane season.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 666
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I know that she's already extratropical, but as of the 11PM advisory, Irene has just displaced Wilma as the 9th largest atlantic hurricane diameter... 580nm NE-SW... 667 miles. Link



that was Irene form the year 1999 dos not say any thing about this year Irene that i can tell
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bye bye Irene
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Quoting FloridaTigers:


The ACE accumulated won't even come close to matching 2005, but the quantity of storms might give it a run for its' money.


It would certainly be hard to achieve since we are well behind it at this point, but 2011 is going to have a large upswing in ACE the latter part of the season.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
84 hours...A deepening TS Lee. Lol. I'll be more inclined to believe this once the GFS/Euro show the same.

As a side note, the GFS/Euro have both been showing that feature SW of Bermuda. Almost seems subtropical with how large it is...



The local forecast office mentioned this, right now we've got a pretty good chance of rain later this week with some significantly cooler (low 90s) weather.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Hate to see the trees go...




This one was torn up by Ivan and believe it or not they managed to save it. This is the old Government Admin Building.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
Quoting hunkerdown:
Then maybe thsy should not have put the percentage at 100% ala pre-Emily.


Why? If we take the NHC's tropical weather outlook literally, which we should, then they are saying there is a near 100% chance at 92L becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. That is their forecast.
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We have a winner! What do we haaaaave for him, johnny!


Quoting HurricaneNewb:
You mean that im a guy and i have a better chance of getting pregnant then figureing out where a 1000mile storm is going?
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Quoting Grothar:


You mean that im a guy and i have a better chance of getting pregnant then figureing out where a 1000mile storm is going?
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public service announcement for you....(really, trying to help) People have been put on ignore lists for less than what you are doing right now. I am just trying to be an informant, not a meanie :-)

Quoting floridaT:
test
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I know that she's already extratropical, but as of the 11PM advisory, Irene has just displaced Wilma as the 9th largest atlantic hurricane diameter... 580nm NE-SW... 667 miles. Link
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Quoting Goldenblack:
HAHA HAHAHA...yep, that's the one!



lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31509
Quoting Grothar:


PrivateIdaho and I always have good arguments about who grows the best potatoes. Long Island or Idaho. Long Island always grew Idaho potatoes, but Idaho got mad and put an injunction about using the name. So now back to reds and Long Island potatoes (which are the better than Idaho's) LOL


Finger potatoes are the best.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
84 hours...A deepening TS Lee. Lol. I'll be more inclined to believe this once the GFS/Euro show the same.

As a side note, the GFS/Euro have both been showing that feature SW of Bermuda. Almost seems subtropical with how large it is...



The ACE accumulated won't even come close to matching 2005, but the quantity of storms might give it a run for its' money.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Not enough persistence yet for the NHC. If 92L is still looking like this or better at 5AM, then it will most likely be declared.
Then maybe thsy should not have put the percentage at 100% ala pre-Emily.
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
This blog was great to read the last two days. Now that Irene is gone and we have our next typical ATL storm days away from anything remotely close to threatening land, the Andrewcasters/Gulfcasters/ItsnotfishifithitsBermud a-casters are all out. Same arguments every single time.


Can you please add me to the anti-Bermuda casters list?
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2165. bappit
Quoting texascoastres:
Bean they said that about Houston after Rita -- when Ike came-- they left!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ummmm, not really. People panicked before Rita. The so-called evacuation actually killed a lot of people. Some burned to death in a bus. Others died of heat stress. There was no mass exodus for Ike like there was for Rita. I think people learned.
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test
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84 hours...A deepening TS Lee. Lol. I'll be more inclined to believe this once the GFS/Euro show the same.

As a side note, the GFS/Euro have both been showing that feature SW of Bermuda. Almost seems subtropical with how large it is...

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Vermonters are a hardy breed.
They could teach most of us how to deal with snow, or a blizzard or ice storm. But they have no experience with tropical rains, and I think maybe they were let down by local and federal officials. I don't recall reading any mention in the NHC discussions of inland flooding as serious and far away as Vermont. Just one specific mention of the possibility of catastrophic flash flooding within minutes would have been smart, in retrospect. I'm sure the NHC is beating themselves up about the situation.


NHC gave ample warning, just no specific locations.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011


RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES
DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS


And the NWS was all over it:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011


Not sure how the local media handled it.
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Quoting Mclem1:
Hey folks! Quite a week! I have a couple of questions. The first is, does anyone have a .gif file or an image animation that shows irene from developing stages to where she is now? I always love watching those animations and watching the storm move and form in fast motion like that! Also, can anyone explain to me why they name invests the way that they do? How do they decide on the number before the L?


I don't have a GIF file from start to finish unfortunately, but I do have a satellite archive here. It contains data from 1997 to present.

As for invests, they are numbered from 90 to 99L, and then the cycle repeats. "L" signifies Atlantic, "E" signifies East Pacific, etc.

Oh, and in case you didn't know, invest classification doesn't necessarily say anything about actual chances for development. I have seen disorganized swirls with no chance of becoming anything receive labels. Case in point, the recent 96L.
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Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... I was going to make a joke about the over/under before someone mentioned Andrew... but ahhhh.... I was 5 minutes late.



Grandpa wrestling with his shutters…you are so mean :}
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HAHA HAHAHA...yep, that's the one!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Shakey Shakey, shakey shakey shakey!
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Irene Gone, Post Tropical, Jose Next on the NHC's hit list. TD12 will be here in the morning
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Quoting FLdewey:
Wasn't this an Allstate commercial?



Shakey Shakey, shakey shakey shakey!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31509
I have been lurking all week, but I can tell you....it is constant. I caught myself doing it last week. I was laughing at myself for days.

Quoting FloridaTigers:
This blog was great to read the last two days. Now that Irene is gone and we have our next typical ATL storm days away from anything remotely close to threatening land, the Andrewcasters/Gulfcasters/ItsnotfishifithitsBermud a-casters are all out. Same arguments every single time.
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Well at least those Nam runs are only 3 days or so from now so whatever comes from it will be apparent pretty quickly, it will not be like the painful waiting that will accompany the likely ACE accumulator 92L
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Some fatalities in Quebec province from flooding are also a sad possibility.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8558
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No Tropical Depression #12 at 11PM.


Not enough persistence yet for the NHC. If 92L is still looking like this or better at 5AM, then it will most likely be declared.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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