Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
test
fail
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2250. 7544
with alol these trofs in sept dont be surpise to see a another wilma track in play stay tuned
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Quoting BeanTech:


Hype much?


Not hype when you look at all the pics there and see that 20+ people are killed in that area.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
test
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My hometown Mastic Beach is under water.. It's not normal. Irene will go in the record books, a historic storm for the Northeast. Just to give you some tweets from people I know who went through this storm.. so that you think this was no joke..

Jason Kerman from Mastic Beach, NY: It's definitely the worst storm I've seen, I'm just thankful that it weakened enough before it got to LI. Still really bad winds and rain though. We didn't lose power at my house but many on LI did

My brother in Center Moriches, NY: They evacuated everyone under Montauk Highway, Mastic Beach is completely under water right now, something we haven't seen in years.

News 12 Long Island, NY: With more than 400,000 Long Islanders without power, and officials warning that outages could last days, some people are looking for creative ways to pass the time. News 12's Shari Einhorn spotted this "roller-chuter" in Long Beach.

Photos of damages from Hurricane Irene on Long Island, NY


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Quoting bythegraceofgod:


Now you could have gone all night without telling me that. I am in Hattiesburg. And with that protective high not around...


Well, the high is still here. We can see it centered over Arkansas/Missouri on the 500mb chart.



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2245. TX2FL
What the heck????? @ 2238 The color of the water..scary
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WTF? You're on ignore now.
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Quoting bythegraceofgod:


Now you could have gone all night without telling me that. I am in Hattiesburg. And with that protective high not around...


He said for what it's worth, though. The NAM is not a reliable model for depicting tropical cyclogenesis. If the GFS/Euro jump aboard, THEN you worry.
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Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
dude, just post the link and forget about the image...its ridiculous already.
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That latest NAM run looks great for TX. A large weak TS headed towards them. That should make a lot of texans happy.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
11:00pm Advisories
The Latest
Good night, Irene
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic is also able to be magnified in Link window by clicking on it)



Note: I always appreciate and welcome comments and feedback on the graphics.
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well, I am off to bed. Those videos are taking up the entire blog page. I will be dreaming of the rain we are supposed to have later this week.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
Quoting MississippiWx:


Why? If we take the NHC's tropical weather outlook literally, which we should, then they are saying there is a near 100% chance at 92L becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. That is their forecast.
If you want to get picky, it states, "AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO", not within 48 hours. At least they didn't use the "at any time" language. I feel, as I know others do as well, 100% should be used when formation is eminent.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Just browsing around... lot of good news links on twitter. Search for "irene" and you'll find lots of cool photos, and a few fake ones too.


Thanks!
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2226. swampliliy 3:10 AM GMT on August 29, 2011 +0
From Windham- upstate NY, near where I'm from....The Daily Freeman, today.

-------------


I should be home in Ulster county, but with the thruway closings we're stuck in the adirondacks til tomorrow morning.

(cant get the quote button to work)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
FWIW, the 00z NAM is out to 66 hours and has a possible TD in the Gulf. Forms from a weak tropical wave that's sneaking its way through the Western Caribbean.



Now you could have gone all night without telling me that. I am in Hattiesburg. And with that protective high not around...
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Quoting texascoastres:


Did anyone think of taking 59 or 290?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Quoting bappit:

no sure where you are from but I live here and dealt with all of it. The evacuations of Rita was horrific due to folks evacuating that did not need to(ie--North of Houston) with Ike the coastal zones were actually evacuated first. The lose of life during the Rita evac was horrible. It was a real mess that was remembered during Ike which was a factor in that evacuation. Remember during Rita they evacuated the Galveston/Houston area and as the storm turned the evac'd the Golden Triangle area and SE Louisiana. I10 was congested with folks trying to leave Texas then had people from Beaumont and Port Arthur being sent towards Houston which turned Galveston/Houston folks back around towards Houston which converged on I45. Been there done that. With Ike most people left when the evac zones were designated.
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From Windham- upstate NY, near where I'm from....The Daily Freeman, today.


WINDHAM – Windham Fire Chief Michael Scarey said Hurricane Irene has “wiped out” downtown Windham. Torrential rains that started Saturday night forced evacuations, submerged school buses and garages and shut down access to the rest of the mountain top.

More than 10 inches of rain fell on the community with an estimated three to four feet of water rushing through Main Street, decimating everything in its path.

Further west, a house was ripped from its foundation and was swallowed by the fast moving creek. It slammed into a bridge.

Fire fighters spent much of the day rescuing people from their flooded homes. One woman was rescued after she was pinned to a tree by the sheer force of the floodwaters.


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Idiot...

Anyways, I'm going to bed..Night all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32262
Quoting HappyLebronica2012:
..


...
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Quoting FLdewey:
Hate to see the trees go...



FLdewey where are you getting all these amazing photos?
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Quoting FLdewey:
So by the power of Google I see that a user "BethanyWoowoo" is stalking people sending nasty emails. Anyone else here draw the attention of said nutcase?


Whatever it is sent me the nasty e-mails last night. I laughed, then put it on e-mail ignore. I've never done that one before...
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2183. Tazmanian 2:58 AM GMT on August 29, 2011 +0
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I know that she's already extratropical, but as of the 11PM advisory, Irene has just displaced Wilma as the 9th largest atlantic hurricane diameter... 580nm NE-SW... 667 miles. Link


that was Irene form the year 1999 dos not say any thing about this year Irene that i can tell



---------
(is the blog severly messed up for anyone else?)

Taz, I was looking at the windfield in the forecast advisory. It's not on wikipedia yet. So that would mean iren has diameter records in 1999 and 2011.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+sh tml/290245.shtml?

My fault though, i should have linked to it.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Irene still at 980 mb...
wow wonder how this will affect the north sea
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Quoting JupiterX:
Happy Lebronica you really stretched the blog with that video.


Just iggy him and refresh.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
You know it dewey....woowoo is on the loose (almost sounds wrong)...

Quoting FLdewey:
So by the power of Google I see that a user "BethanyWoowoo" is stalking people sending nasty emails. Anyone else here draw the attention of said nutcase?
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
There will be some more fatalities with the flooding tonight especially in mountainous northern New England. I expect Irene will finish up with 30-35 dead and 7-10 billion dollars in damage.


Unfortunately with many towns inaccessible and damage from flooding just starting I'm seeing 50+ dead and 20 billion in damage. We shall see who is right in the end.
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Happy Lebronica you really stretched the blog with that video.
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Irene still at 980 mb...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It would certainly be hard to achieve since we are well behind it at this point, but 2011 is going to have a large upswing in ACE the latter part of the season.


Doesn't Irene have >60% of ACE at moment?
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.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




heh heh could not help it


Taz, you really need to stop talking to the trolls. You know it doesn't help. Please.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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