Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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107 in Corpus Christi today. 108 is the all time high. I really hope ya'll are right about the high breaking down soon. For those of you who don't know it is very rare to have over 100 along the coast. It is HOT, but nothing like our neighbors to the north and north east are enduring.
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Quoting pcola57:
Nice Blog Update MSX...,
the more you do the easier they get.
V/R,
Moe


Thanks!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
2349. pcola57
T
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you think the hurricane hunters will get a ch too fly here?


The HH wait until after 55W.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
2347. Skyepony (Mod)
MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) - Officials are telling hundreds of people to leave their homes in Vermont and a utility is considering flooding the state's capital to save a dam amid heavy rain from Tropical Storm Irene.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS at 117 hours. This is why I said in my blog that Puerto Rico and the northern islands should keep an eye on (Katia). Wouldn't take a whole lot to put her right on top of them...




you think the hurricane hunters will get a ch too fly here?
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2345. pcola57
Nice Blog Update MSX...,
the more you do the easier they get.
V/R,
Moe
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00z GFS at 117 hours. This is why I said in my blog that Puerto Rico and the northern islands should keep an eye on (Katia). Wouldn't take a whole lot to put her right on top of them...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10244
Quoting gatorchomp:
so what does everyone think about 92L?

any chance of it getting out here to the east coast?


My opinion is that there is always a chance when they start that far to the south, but as Dr. Masters said: "Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this."
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I've lost quote power again. But thank you for the well wishes. Yes it's been a brutal summer even by our standards. Lol. The NAM is the only model I've seen develop anything in the gulf except I think the EURO did for one run a few days ago. Taking it into Louisiana I believe. Don't know. This time of year something definitely could spin up in the gulf for sure.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
The color of a tragedy

The criticisms of the government's response to Hurricane Katrina primarily consisted of criticism of mismanagement and lack of leadership in the relief efforts in response to the storm and its aftermath. More specifically, the criticism focused on the delayed response to the flooding of New Orleans, and the subsequent state of chaos in the Crescent City. The neologism Katrinagate was coined to refer to this controversy, and was a runner-up for "2005 word of the year."

Within days of Katrina's August 29, 2005 landfall, public debate arose about the local, state and federal governments' role in the preparations for and response to the hurricane. Criticism was initially prompted by televised images of visibly shaken and frustrated political leaders, and of residents who remained stranded by flood waters without water, food or shelter. Deaths from thirst, exhaustion, and violence, days after the storm had passed, fueled the criticism, as did the dilemma of the evacuees at facilities such as the Louisiana Superdome (designed to handle 800, yet 30,000 arrived) and the New Orleans Civic Center (not designed as an evacuation center, yet 25,000 arrived). Some alleged that race, class, and other factors could have contributed to delays in government response. The percentage of black victims among storm-related deaths (49%) was below their proportion in the area's population (approx. 60%).

During A Concert for Hurricane Relief, a benefit concert for victims of the hurricane, rapper Kanye West veered off script and harshly criticized the government's response to the crisis, stating that "George Bush doesn't care about black people." Although the camera quickly cut away, and the scene was deleted from delayed broadcasts, West's comments still reached the East Coast broadcasts, and were replayed and discussed afterwards.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

How many Hurricanes did that cottage endure since 1903, 108yrs. Yet it was taken out by Irene.

I'm out, going to work.
About the same age as my home which survived Betsy '65 but one never knows... have a great day!
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Quoting katadman:


Sorry, I forgot to hoist the sarcasm flag!
Lol I got it. was just waiting to s how many more you hooked before I commented. That was funny.
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Quoting katadman:


Sorry, I forgot to hoist the sarcasm flag!


You ought to be sleeping, traveling man...on the other, so should I; guess I'll go burn one instead
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh no. It was the latest NAM run out 84hrs. Looks to be coming up from the Caribbean. Though NAM is not usually good at tropical development. The rain would be nice though.
Oh Thanks...keeping my fingers crossed for ya! but only if it's a wimpy rainmaker. I know ya'll have been parched. Here in S.LA one of the few advantages of a high water table is that trees can survive and stay green during a dry spell. At my house, three and a half feet down and your shoveling water...
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Quote not working. Just wanted to say this would be nice and none too soon. If it found its way to Texas.

I saw some more records broken in tx today. must be brutal a summer like yours.
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GFS looks like it toys with the idea of development but at least they show some precip poised at the coast at 84hrs. Now weather it disappears like Don did as soon as hits Tx is another story. Lol.

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Quoting lottotexas:

LinkLink


Thank you lotto
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Yep...just about to say that....very sad tho. I love historical buildings and sad to see another lost.


Sorry, I forgot to hoist the sarcasm flag!
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Yep...just about to say that....very sad tho. I love historical buildings and sad to see another lost.

How many Hurricanes did that cottage endure since 1903, 108yrs. Yet it was taken out by Irene.

I'm out, going to work.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok. It worked this time. :)

Yes, not wishing for a monster but the rain would be divine. We're supposed to be getting some of the rain at the end of the week. Might have a chance with the high sliding to our east finally. Not getting my hopes up - yet. :)


I'm thinking...finally, maybe a light at the end of the tunnel....I'm not in Texas, but always pulling for those drought areas.....Florida finally looks better. I'm hopeful and thinking positive :)
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AtHOmeintx-- thaqt would be our luck- starts to cool off for labor day weekend and we get a storm! Thats ok we will take it
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Quoting want2lrn:
Honestly i have searched the WUNDERGROUND and i can't find them. Would someone please tell me where to go to see the model runs. Thank you!

LinkLink
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


sure is. not even really a fair fight...... lol



lol
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2326. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Quote not working. Just wanted to say this would be nice and none too soon. If it found its way to Texas.

Is that the first run that it developes anything?
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Quoting midgulfmom:
2307. AtHomeInTX: Is that one of the models for 92L? TIA


Oh no. It was the latest NAM run out 84hrs. Looks to be coming up from the Caribbean. Though NAM is not usually good at tropical development. The rain would be nice though.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
Katrina landfall on Monday, August 29 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall. At least 1,836 people died in the actual hurricane and in the subsequent floods, making it the deadliest U.S. hurricane since the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane; total property damage was estimated at $81 billion (2005 USD), nearly triple the damage wrought by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

The storm rapidly intensified after entering the Gulf, growing from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane in just nine hours. This rapid growth was due to the storm's movement over the "unusually warm" waters of the Loop Current, which increased wind speeds. On Saturday, August 27, the storm reached Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, becoming the third major hurricane of the season. An eyewall replacement cycle disrupted the intensification, but caused the storm to nearly double in size. Katrina again rapidly intensified, attaining Category 5 status on the morning of August 28 and reached its peak strength at 1800 UTC that day, with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 902 mbar (26.6 inHg). The pressure measurement made Katrina the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record at the time, only to be surpassed by Hurricanes Rita and Wilma later in the season; it was also the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. However, this record was later broken by Hurricane Rita.
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Honestly i have searched the WUNDERGROUND and i can't find them. Would someone please tell me where to go to see the model runs. Thank you!
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Super-typhoon ravages Philippines


Destructive wake: Filipinos inspect a site after a retaining wall at a landfill collapsed causing a rubbish-slide due to heavy rains brought on by typhoon Nanmadol in Manila. Source: AFP

SUPER-typhoon Nanmadol left flattened bridges and blocked roads in its wake as it moved away from the Philippines and churned towards Taiwan.

The toll of eight dead and the missing is likely to rise as officials assess the full impact of the storm, the strongest to hit the country this year, said Emilia Tadeo of the civil defense damage report section.

Five were killed by landslides including two children buried by an avalanche of garbage at a tip in the northern mountain city of Baguio, the civil defense office said.

Two people drowned while another was crushed by a falling wall, weakened by the rain.

A further six people are considered missing after vanishing at sea or being swept away by overflowing rivers as Nanmadol brought heavy rain to the northern Philippines, the civil defense office said.

More than 57,000 people were forced to flee their homes due to the risk of floods and landslides in the mountainous north, the office added.
An average of 20 storms and typhoons, many of them deadly, hit the Philippines annually. The last storms, Nock-ten and Muifa (*personal edit* Muifa did not effect The Philippines), left at least 70 dead when they hit in July.

Nanmadol, named after an ancient site in Micronesia, is forecast to hit Taiwan on Tuesday before cutting across to China.

Taiwan evacuated 2500 villagers from the east and south of the island on Sunday, the Central Emergency Center said, with the authorities urging the public to stay away from mountainous and low-lying areas.

The defense ministry ordered 35,000 soldiers in the east to stand by.
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nofailsafe--- from west univeristy - you are not in an evac zone but I 10 west would be your way out http://www.hcoem.org/HCMap.aspx?P=Evacuation check out the harris county office of emergency management site at the link abouve and it will give you all possiblities
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Doesn't mean that the winds are at classification level, but what is better?

This? (92L)


Or This? (TS Jose @ top)




92L LOL
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Quoting AussieStorm:

the (R) means person on the Right.
Yep...just about to say that....very sad tho. I love historical buildings and sad to see another lost.
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Well, I never make blog entries, but I did one tonight. Hope you'll read and give me some feedback! It was sloppily put together, but I think it gets my point across.

Irene is gone, focus turns to 92L
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Would be just perfect for Texas....if it stays that size....we'll hope for that :)


Ok. It worked this time. :)

Yes, not wishing for a monster but the rain would be divine. We're supposed to be getting some of the rain at the end of the week. Might have a chance with the high sliding to our east finally. Not getting my hopes up - yet. :)
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Quoting katadman:



I wonder why they felt it important to identify Mr. Stinson's political affiliation? Go figure.

the (R) means person on the Right.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Billy Stinson (R) is comforted by his friend David Alan Harvey as he looks over the remains of his cottage in Nags Head, North Carolina. The cottage, built in 1903 was destroyed yesterday by tropical storm Irene. Picture: AFP



I wonder why they felt it important to identify Mr. Stinson's political affiliation? Go figure.
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2312. JRRP
GFS 00z a bit more south but not much
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2307. AtHomeInTX: Is that one of the models for 92L? TIA
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Quote not working. Just wanted to say this would be nice and none too soon. If it found its way to Texas.



Would be just perfect for Texas....if it stays that size....we'll hope for that :)
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


I agree. Very cold cloud tops on the Funktop




yup
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2308. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
i say 92L is really is now a TD


It sure looks like one to me.
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Quote not working. Just wanted to say this would be nice and none too soon. If it found its way to Texas.

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2305. 7544
have a feeling we be talking about the fl east coast blob soon
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92L is pretty far south compared to recent emerged tropical waves. It also remains too early to accurately say where this invest will go. Heck, the models had Irene making landfall in Florida originally....and it went up the east coast and made landfall in New England / Northeast.
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Jose is a trooper.
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2302. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
i say 92L is really is now a TD


I agree with you Taz...
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i say 92L is really is now a TD
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.