Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2011

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Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.

The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.


Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.

Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.

Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.

I'll have a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tree puzzle, after Irene (bluesy)
Tree puzzle, after Irene
Irene Aftermath 15 (mikey66)
Irene Aftermath 15
Irene (snowbets)
Irene

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hey look i was post 2400 what do i win
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it wont be a fish storm if it hits Bermuda
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is that in the GOM the one headed to LA?

Hopefully the Hurricane it is showing will be a fish storm.


The precip in the Gulf shown in that image is more frontal in nature. If you notice to the north of there, a trof is passing by and causing the precip development. It's at 183 hours, and probably unrealistic for a trough to make it into Deep South Texas so early.
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Is that a little twirl I see south of PR...or am I just looking too hard :P



It's a swirl, but it's upper level in nature. It played a huge role in keeping Irene ventilated and helped her sustain such low barometric pressures.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
183 hours...Just northeast of the island chain.



Is that in the GOM the one headed to LA?

Hopefully the Hurricane it is showing will be a fish storm.
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Is that a little twirl I see south of PR...or am I just looking too hard :P

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Quoting Tazmanian:



Bermuda may be in the way
East of Bermuda
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dont for get it olny takes 1 too make it a bad season



and i think we had are 1
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2393. pcola57
Quoting Skyepony:
Match made between slick and Macondo oil


Hello Skye,
Couldn't get past the banner on this in order to read it.Say's I must join membership.
V/R,
Moe
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Finally a night with Irene not being around! Have an excellent night, everyone! I'll see what 92L (or TD 12?) is up to tomorrow.
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Quoting air360:
latest gfs curves 92L to sea just before reaching CONUS



Bermuda may be in the way
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mode runs will chang many of times



so it may go back W



all so this is olny one mode run there are still many others
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2389. air360
latest gfs curves 92L to sea just before reaching CONUS
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Quoting MississippiWx:


About an hour and a half.



thank you
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2387. Skyepony (Mod)
Match made between slick and Macondo oil
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.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any one?




About an hour and a half.
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2384. Tijer
Sorry, but as of right now, 92L has less then 16 mph winds. I would suggest they get a new agent or at least around working buoys.
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'edit'
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


MsWx, I always read several blogs and have them on my favorites list....your's is one of them. It is always very good....Keep up the good work :)


Thanks! I appreciate the kind words.
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One thing I forgot to emphasize in my blog update is the positive NAO that is forecast by the models. A positive NAO usually means that we will have a more stout A/B high. A stronger A/B high will be less likely to break down, especially across the Central Atlantic. I think that is something we should watch in model trends as 92L's weakness may not come until it is much closer to the islands.

A slightly positive NAO typically leads to more U.S. landfalls, which is what we had in the peak months of 2005 and 2008. A strongly positive NAO typically has a trough setup over the Eastern Seaboard, making it less likely for storms to reach the U.S. We need to watch and see how the pattern unfolds.
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any one?


Quoting Tazmanian:
when is the next atcf update?
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2379. Tijer
Quoting want2lrn:
Honestly i have searched the WUNDERGROUND and i can't find them. Would someone please tell me where to go to see the model runs. Thank you!


Maps and Radar > Model maps?
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Quoting floridaT:
i worked on long island for 8 months in 1986. lived right across the street from the city marina. spring tide full moon our street would flood.
I lived down the beach in Long Beach(which is also "flooded" but really not that bad, and they're used to a flood at the drop of a hat) and still have family nearby in Ridge. Mastic Beach is a nice spot, but it's perfectly normal for it to flood. It's probably the number one spot on the whole island that EOM expects to flood. Doesn't get the attention that Long Beach gets because it has 1/100th the population. The residents there are used to flooding. It'll be dry in a couple of days. No big damage.
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183 hours...Just northeast of the island chain.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Understand. Thanks for the suggestions and I'll look into them!


MsWx, I always read several blogs and have them on my favorites list....your's is one of them. It is always very good....Keep up the good work :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I've lost quote power again. But thank you for the well wishes. Yes it's been a brutal summer even by our standards. Lol. The NAM is the only model I've seen develop anything in the gulf except I think the EURO did for one run a few days ago. Taking it into Louisiana I believe. Don't know. This time of year something definitely could spin up in the gulf for sure.


Us locals in Texas don't want anything major to spin up, nor do we expect anything soon. But a nice long pink/blue farmer's rain on the radar sure would be what the doctor ordered. Lower pressure, we'll get better surf too!
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2374. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting katadman:


Now, that is drastic but may prove to be the right choice if the collapse of the dam appears imminent. I am supposing it is a hydro-electric dam? I thought that the Corps of Engineers wre in control of all those dams. Surprized that the electric company would have the authority to make the call.


Article said it was the power company's call..if they felt it was needed to save the dam.
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Predictably, all of the inland Tropical Storm Warnings over Northern New England have been dropped.
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm about to put on 1062 tomorrow...LOL

5 hour energy my great aunt Opal; I'm going to need something stronger


I only surpassed that by a small margin. You're going to have one sore tush tomorrow night.
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when is the next atcf update?
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2370. Skyepony (Mod)
MANTEO, N.C. (AP) - About 2,500 people on Hatteras Island on North Carolina's Outer Banks have been cut off by damage from Hurricane Irene, including five breaches along the only road on the island.

Video and photos show breaches up and down the barrier island, including north of the northernmost village of Rodanthe. That leaves the island inaccessible by the Bonner Bridge that links the island to the mainland. The only other access is by ferry from Ocracoke Island, and officials say a half-mile of N.C. Highway 12 there also washed out.

State emergency officials sent a ferry with supplies to the island Sunday.

Video showed one house on fire, and others appeared to be teetering.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Ah, I see. Yes, they will most likely fly into 92L eventually. As long as it comes west of 55W at a latitude that's reasonable, I don't see how they couldn't.



ok cool



by the way what the GFS show now
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Quoting floridaT:
googled it over 8,000 people live there


Now, that is drastic but may prove to be the right choice if the collapse of the dam appears imminent. I am supposing it is a hydro-electric dam? I thought that the Corps of Engineers wre in control of all those dams. Surprized that the electric company would have the authority to make the call.
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Quoting AllStar17:


If the storm is a threat to land after 55W, I'm sure they will.

Unrelated: Recon. made 35 missions into Irene. Is it just me or does that seem like a lot?



too me thats a lot
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Quoting Tazmanian:


i no that lol but you think they get a ch too fly here in a few days?


Ah, I see. Yes, they will most likely fly into 92L eventually. As long as it comes west of 55W at a latitude that's reasonable, I don't see how they couldn't.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you think the hurricane hunters will get a ch too fly here?


If the storm is a threat to land after 55W, I'm sure they will.

Unrelated: Recon. made 35 missions into Irene. Is it just me or does that seem like a lot?
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Quoting SamWells:


Not bad at all, keep 'em coming. If I had a suggestion it would be to synthesize various themes in one map, like here's the SAL, the higher SSTs, the high pressure cells, track tendency, lee side lows, and a ULL if you got one. People love eye candy, just sayin'. I am graphically challenged so no problem if you disregard my comment - but I meant to convey a compliment to ya.


Understand. Thanks for the suggestions and I'll look into them!
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Quoting katadman:


I screwed up and drank a Five Hour Energy two hours before stopping for the night. lol That is the most I've driven in a single day in more than twenty years.


I'm about to put on 1062 tomorrow...LOL

5 hour energy my great aunt Opal; I'm going to need something stronger
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I didn't even realize they left some Tropical Storm advisories up at the 11pm Final advisory for Irene.

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Good night all! Stay safe! Thoughts and prayers go out the folks on the East Coast.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, I never make blog entries, but I did one tonight. Hope you'll read and give me some feedback! It was sloppily put together, but I think it gets my point across.

Irene is gone, focus turns to 92L


Not bad at all, keep 'em coming. If I had a suggestion it would be to synthesize various themes in one map, like here's the SAL, the higher SSTs, the high pressure cells, track tendency, lee side lows, and a ULL if you got one. People love eye candy, just sayin'. I am graphically challenged so no problem if you disregard my comment - but I meant to convey a compliment to ya.
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Quoting katadman:



I wonder why they felt it important to identify Mr. Stinson's political affiliation? Go figure.
He is a town republican Politician, is the only reason nah,, the "r" stand for the right,, just a joke...
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Try reducing your comments to 50....it helped my sluggish stretched blog....


Thanks. That worked so far. :)
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Quoting Skyepony:
MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) - Officials are telling hundreds of people to leave their homes in Vermont and a utility is considering flooding the state's capital to save a dam amid heavy rain from Tropical Storm Irene.
googled it over 8,000 people live there
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Quoting MississippiWx:


The HH wait until after 55W.


i no that lol but you think they get a ch too fly here in a few days?
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Dr. Master's and friends, Irene hit NC, NJ and NY, it's true. She also devastated Vermont. It is the worst I have seen since moving here 30 years ago. As witness:

The covered bridge at Simon Pearce in Quechee is a loss...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2oDT_fV6Vs&featur e=share

Another covered bridge is lost at Lower Bartonsville
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=209550806538 9

Ottauquechee Iron Bridge, Route 12
https://fbcdn-photos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-as h4/320629_2274766315827_1448770809_32531823_694545 9_s.jpg

Route 100, south of Pittsfield
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQaCDlRUywU&sns=fb " target="_blank">a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQaCDlRUywU&s ns=fb " target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQa CDlRUywU&sns=fb

A collection of other places around Vermont
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1015029 8208962726.362855.662297725
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Quoting katadman:


Sorry, I forgot to hoist the sarcasm flag!
Hahaha...wasn't sure. Some people see everything in those terms! Good one... :)
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I've lost quote power again. But thank you for the well wishes. Yes it's been a brutal summer even by our standards. Lol. The NAM is the only model I've seen develop anything in the gulf except I think the EURO did for one run a few days ago. Taking it into Louisiana I believe. Don't know. This time of year something definitely could spin up in the gulf for sure.


Try reducing your comments to 50....it helped my sluggish stretched blog....
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Quoting Floodman:


You ought to be sleeping, traveling man...on the other, so should I; guess I'll go burn one instead


I screwed up and drank a Five Hour Energy two hours before stopping for the night. lol That is the most I've driven in a single day in more than twenty years.
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107 in Corpus Christi today. 108 is the all time high. I really hope ya'll are right about the high breaking down soon. For those of you who don't know it is very rare to have over 100 along the coast. It is HOT, but nothing like our neighbors to the north and north east are enduring.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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