Irene hits New Jersey and New York; Jose threating Bermuda; 92L forms
Hurricane Irene hit New Jersey ten miles north of Atlantic City at 5:30 am EDT, as a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Irene is only the second hurricane since 1851 to hit New Jersey. At 9 am EDT, Irene made a third U.S. landfall over Long Island, NY, and New York City, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Top wind gusts measured in New York City were 60 mph at Central Park at 3:58 am; 67 mph at La Guardia at 4:10 am; and 59 mph at JFK Airport at 1:33 am. A 91 mph gust was recorded in Sayville, NY on the Central Long Island coast, at 7:02 am. Emergency managers reported that the nearby town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to a storm surge. The storm surge at The Battery on the southern shore of Manhattan reached 4.0 feet, overtopping the sea wall in several locations. Fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. Irene's rains have now ended in New York City, after accumulating to 7.60" at Central Park. This brings total rainfall for the month of August in New York City to 19.68", making it the wettest month in the city since record keeping began in 1869. The previous record was 16.85", set in September 1882. Philadelphia, PA and Newark, NJ have also set all-time wettest month records, thanks to Irene's rains. The 19.40" of rain that has fallen in Philadelphia this August is probably the most rain any major city in the Northeast, U.S. has received since 22.43" fell in Newark, NJ in August 1843, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.
Figure 1. Storm surge at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island as of noon EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:45 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.0 feet. The surge declined to about 3 feet during the high tide cycle, then rose again to near 3.9 feet as the tide started going out. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Figure 2. Total rainfall over the past 30 days along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England has topped 15 inches (purple colors) in many areas, making August the wettest month in recorded history for the cities of Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.
Irene's rains bringing significant river flooding
Irene brought more than eight inches of rain to a long stretch of the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to New York. NOAA's Significant River Flood Outlook is showing that significant river flooding is already occurring along coastal regions of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and is expected to spread to Eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, Western Massachusetts, and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in an portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much and is too far north.
Figure 3. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
Tropical Storm Jose forms
Tropical Storm Jose formed this morning in surprise fashion, managing to maintain enough heavy thunderstorms in the face of very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots to become the season's tenth named storm. Jose does not have long to live, due to the strong upper-level winds from Hurricane Irene that are creating the shear. Jose will likely bring strong winds near tropical storm force later today when it passes just west of Bermuda. Satellite loops show that there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Jose, and Bermuda will see much less rain than is usual for a tropical storm passing so close.
Elsewhere in the tropics: Invest 92L forms
A strong tropical wave located off the coast of Africa, about 200 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west at 10 mph, and has been designated Invest 92L by NHC this morning. This system has a large amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and moderate amount of spin, and appears likely to develop into a tropical storm later this week, as all of the computer models are developing it. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This storm will be moving more slowly across the Atlantic than Irene did, and will take at least 6 days to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Forecast tracks from the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest that Bermuda might be the only land area threatened by 92L, but it is too early to be confident of this.
Hottest day in Houston's history
The mercury hit 109°F (42.8°C) yesterday at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, tying September 4, 2000 as the hottest day in the city's history. Yesterday was the also the hottest August day on record in Houston, besting the 108°F reading of August 18, 1909. This year, Houston has set its record for all-time hottest temperature, most 100° days in a year (36, old record was 32, and 4 is normal), and most consecutive 100° days (24, old record was 14.) Weather records in Houston go back to 1889. Houston needs 20.18" of rain to get to normal levels of rainfall for the year. Today's high is predicted to be 107°F in Houston, so yesterday's record may be in danger of being broken today. By the end of the week, Houston is expected to cool down below 100°, and a weather pattern conducive for bringing summer rains will move in.
I'll have a new post Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Tree puzzle, after Irene (
bluesy)
Reader Comments
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lol, seriously, I'm curious.
That's not necessarily true. There is a lot of debate on the effects of the NAO, but we've been in a negative NAO for most of this season and we were also in the negative most of last season. A neutral or slightly positive NAO favors tracks more to the west. In 2005 and 2008, we had a slightly positive NAO during the peak months and we know what happened.
A strongly positive NAO favors a strong A/B high, but it is displaced to the east some, while a trough tends to carve itself out along the Eastern Seaboard.
A neutral to slightly positive NAO is worse for U.S. landfalls.
(Click to enlarge)
Elsewhere in the tropics, Irene floods Canada, and the remnants of Jose are being dragged by Irene toward Cape Breton Island and Newfoundland. Jose's butt is still bringing convection to Bermuda.
Typhoon Nanmadol has hit southern Taiwan, and will track into the southern central provinces of China, presenting a significant flooding risk.
Although tropical storm Talas is currently extremely broad and almost disorganized, current forecasts project it to make landfall just west of the Tokyo-Yokohama Bay region, due in part of Fujiwara interaction with Nanmadol. This is potentially a threatening scenario, considering the storm is about ten degrees (roughly 1,100 km or 690 mi) wide, and will likely make landfall at a similar diameter as a strong category one. Considering that Katrina's initial landfall and Irene's final landfall were both cat. 1, these storms need to be watched.
Talas track forecast.
In the Atlantic still, TD 12L has developed, and promises to be a significant threat to the Gulf, Florida, US East Coast, Bermuda, random fish and/or Newfoundland. The wake left by Irene's slow motion and upwelling thereof has cooled most of the Gulf Stream region significantly, though that could vamp up again when future Katia approaches. A side note: sea surface temperatures off Louisiana are 32C (90F).
Finally, considering that Irene has almost exited the WU consciousness field, let's look again at the famous SST maps. (*groan*)
We observe that La Nina's second episode is picking up again: notice the cool anomaly offshore southern Peru. In the North Pacific, however (read: PDO zone), a 20C SST isotherm lurks barely 1,200 km from Portland, Oregon. Compared to last year, this is much closer to shore, and an axis extending from Hawaii to San Francisco is warmer.
In other news, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake struck the San Andreas two days ago. This is the first M4.5 earthquake in the region in three months.
Stay away from Caps lock and somebody might take you a little more seriously
Already has a floater on RAMSDIS.
I have...hypergraphia.
"In August 2011 – Multiple changes are introduced to HURDAT:
1) Four new tropical cyclones were added: 1899 (tropical storm), 1901 (hurricane),
1904 (hurricane), and 1909 (tropical storm);
2) Alterations to the track and/or intensity of some tropical cyclones in 1857, 1859,
1866, 1882, 1885, 1887, 1900, 1901, 1909, 1910, 1912, 1915, 1921, 1922, 1925,
1926, 1927, and 1930;
3) Significant changes for U.S. hurricanes: 1857 North Carolina hurricane -
upgraded from Category 1 to Category 2, a new 1859 Florida Category 1 hurricane,
1882 Louisiana hurricane - downgraded from a Category 2 to a tropical storm,
1885 South Carolina hurricane - downgraded from Category 3 to Category 2,
1887 Texas hurricane - downgraded from Category 2 to Category 1, and
1925 Florida hurricane - downgraded from a Category 1 to a tropical storm;
4) Minor intensity changes for Georges (1980), Floyd (1981), Helene (1988), and
Keith (1988). These all contained original best track windspeeds to the overly
precise nearest 1 kt. Values are adjusted to the nearest 5 kt currently used."
The 1925 Florida Hurricane was once thought to be the latest hurricane to hit the US, but analysis has shown that not to be the case.
HURDAT changes Aug2011
Neutral - Slightly positive.
We are currently in a neutral phase, but forecast by the models to go slightly positive over the coming week.
if it is anything like bill or earl, i will be watchin for sure!
ok :-) I figured it has to be a joke.
Tropical Atlantic
Subtropical Atlantic
It's hard to say at this point. The NAO theories aren't set in stone. Just because we have a neutral or slightly positive NAO doesn't mean we can't have one passing trough that takes it out to sea. If the NAO remains neutral to slightly positive, however, I believe the chances are higher. Also, a slightly negative NAO isn't terribly against landfalling storms in the U.S. either.
Why drop the hype, when money and paychecks are involved! LMAO!
We have learned everything, the hard way. Its the politicians in the Congress and the Corps and people who make uninformed statements about New Orleans who have learned nothing.
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