Irene sends 4.5 foot storm surge up Chesapeake Bay

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 AM GMT on August 28, 2011

Share this Blog
22
+

The eye of Hurricane Irene is back over water, after the hurricane completed a 11-hour crossing of eastern North Carolina. Irene came ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am EDT this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph at 7:19am, as measured by a Department of Transportation official. I suspect this measurement came when a thunderstorm near Irene's center collapsed, sending a powerful downburst to the surface. A trained spotter on Atlantic Beach, NC measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. However, no regular weather station or buoy has measured sustained hurricane force winds in Irene, with the highest winds being 67 mph at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy as Irene made landfall. Winds have peaked along the coast of Virginia, where sustained winds of 61 mph were observed at 6 pm EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Irene's passage over land weakened the storm slightly, and satellite loops show more dry air has wrapped into the storm. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is still very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area--but there is much less rain over the storm's southeastern quadrant, over water. Radar-estimated rainfall shows a 50 mile-wide band of 8+ inches of rain has fallen from where Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, northwards to Dover, Delaware. Some isolated amounts of 15+ inches may have fallen, according to the radar estimates. Bunyan, NC has received 14.00" so far, and the towns of Washington, New Bern, Grifton, Newport-Croatan, Wonona, NC, all received more than ten inches. Norfolk, Virginia had received 7.73" as of 7pm EDT, and Suffolk, Virginia, 8.00".


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.


Figure 2. Storm surge at Sewell's Point in Norfolk, Virginia as of 8 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 8 pm, the storm surge was 4.5 feet. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 6:30 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's shrinking hurricane-force winds (yellow and orange colors.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene over water, but very few areas of land were receiving tropical storm force winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
The emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.

Tornadoes
Four tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1138 - 1088

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

They upgraded a naked swirl!!! Go figure!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
as i expected loks like things we'll be much worse in providence and boston,i bet winds gust to hurricabe force in providence,anyone have any idea why its not downgraded yet,i haven't been able to find any surface reports of sustained hurricane winds
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting starbuck02:
wtf Jose?

Where did he come from???

This hideous disgrace of an Invest:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Flooding at Long Beach
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wtf Jose?

Where did he come from???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What a long discussion. lol

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281200
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1200Z 30.8N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1131. WxLogic
LOL... this is crazy!!! Jose already from 30%. Wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is a good link, everyone should bookmark it. Includes a Cape May traffic Camera

I was watching this webcam and in the distance behind the flashing beacon light there was lights on, about 1 minute ago they all went poof.


THANK YOU!
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1054
I'm going to post a few cam link again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's hard to see, as someone else mentioned, how TD11 will become a TS. At any rate, I noticed an oddity this morning: since the current "active era" began in 1995, TD10s have failed to achieve TS status four times. That second most to TD2s, which have five fails. (All TD3s, OTOH, have attained TS strength.)

And now you know... ;)


Its.. Jose now. Great scott, that caught me with my pants down around my ankles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. gleef
What is going on with the time stamp?

I read this blog entry at Sun Aug 28 11:42:37 UTC 2011, but the entry says it was posted at 12:45 AM GMT on August 28, 2011. I understand that UTC and GMT are not technically synonymous, but I'm unaware of any situation where they'll be a few seconds apart from each other, much less over an hour difference.

I verified with Tycho at the US Naval Observatory just to make sure my system wasn't broken or insane. At this writing Tycho says Aug. 28, 11:52:39 UTC, still far earlier than this blog entry was allegedly put online.

All the comments I see are also time stamped earlier than the blog entry was allegedly made.

Why is there a bogus time on this blog entry? Does someone at Weather Underground have a computer that's an hour off? Is someone conflating GMT and BST?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
overreaction to this storm has been gross
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. unc70
I grew up on the south coast of NC between Topsail and Atlantic Beach, a couple of miles inland, and have gone through nearly every one for over 60 years, including Hazel, Connie, Diane, Ione, Fran, Bertha, Floyd, ...

I have immediate family who live in AB and on Topsail, plus extended family scattered throughout eastern NC. They all came off the islands, from Atlantic Beach to Chapel Hill. We will not know the extent of damage until later today; the rain and TS wind gusts continued until dark even in Atlantic Beach/MHC/Cape Lookup.

We did talk to several family and friends down there and conditions were awful: flooding, 10-16 inches of rain, trees down, no electricity. From them and front other reports, plus knowing the area well, I think that some of the facts and observations at landfall are incomplete and misleading. When all the data is reviewed by the NHC after the season ends, I think it likely that Irene will be deemed a minimum Cat 2 at landfall. More on that and on the pressure vs wind speed anomaly in a separate post.

While we won't really know until late today how much damage Irene has caused in NC, from what I have seen Irene seems more like maybe Bertha than it does Fran, Floyd, or Hazel.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Just got power back on after being out for many hours overnight. ~30 miles north of NYC.

So far winds gusting into the 60s from time to time. Sustained is in the upper 30s to mid 40s though.

Core still 150 miles to my south but I wonder just how much higher the winds are there since this storm is likely spreading out quite rapidly. Too early to call down to the shore to get a feeling on that.

Other than twigs, leaves, and branches down nothing to note that I can see.

However the strongest winds are not here yet.

I'd venture power will go back out at some point.

It would seem that gusts into the 80s aren't going to happen but 70s will. It would also seem 15 inches of rain won't happen but we're over 6 so far.


I would think based on all I am seeing a mix between the NHC/NWS winds and Dr. M's winds is what is happening.

I liken this to Hurricane Gloria's effects which I also witnessed first hand in 85 in Jersey - even caught the eye.

I would still have liked to and would still like to read a detailed reason from Dr. M as to why he downplayed the winds so much. It doesn't seem like an unreasonable request to me. If you're going to counter what the NWS/NHC are forecasting by such a degree I think an explanation is warranted.
,i doubtbyour winds get much stronger,suprised you had gusts in the 60's i cannot find any reports that high in westchester,this is about 20mph under what forecast,i was calling fo40-50 mph,gusts to 70
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND
SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35
KT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR
OF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN
36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY.

GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1200Z 30.8N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's hard to see, as someone else mentioned, how TD11 will become a TS. At any rate, I noticed an oddity this morning: since the current "active era" began in 1995, TD10s have failed to achieve TS status four times. That second most to TD2s, which have five fails. (All TD3s, OTOH, have attained TS strength.)

And now you know... ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
That may have been a typo ... until I see the name Jose on something I wont believe it

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well.. on the plus side of my disbelief.. I never viewed Jose as a very scary storm anyways.

10-1-1.

Here comes our K storm anyways.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ARE you kidding me
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That may have been a typo ... until I see the name Jose on something I wont believe it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 281157
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1200 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM JOSE on the NHC site..

WTF!!!??!?!?!?

000
WTNT21 KNHC 281157
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112011
1200 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 28/1200Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 32.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
on the one hand....people from NJ to Mass have dodged a bullet which is a good thing....


on the other hand.....this will create apathy and cause people to turn a blind eye and a deaf ear next time something is heading up north like this.....That in the long run could prove extremely deadly for millions....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMS NEAR BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 28
Location: 30.8°N 65.7°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NO way, we have Jose
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Is TD11 a joke or what.... I guess we will have to see... maybe they are thinking that as Irene fills in the new storm may have less shear to deal with and be able to develop somewhat of a core


That's tropical storm Jose to you.


...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMS NEAR BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, thanks to a coordinated and ongoing campaign (of which the forum's administrators are aware), my posts are hidden from most people. Go figure... ;-)


If i'm logged in I can see all posts, but when I'm not, you and some others are gone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is TD11 a joke or what.... I guess we will have to see... maybe they are thinking that as Irene fills in the new storm may have less shear to deal with and be able to develop somewhat of a core
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


...They've upgraded this!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1107. aimetti
posting from se ct about 8 miles from the coast.

things have started to pick up here. id say winds are around 40 mph with higher gusts.

Starting to lose branches and my bush in my front yard got blown away lol.

Amazingly though, we still have power and im brewing some coffee right away. We usually lose power here when we get a weak T-storm so I am really pleased to still have it so far.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
irenec, mlc and llc decoupling over nyc,no sustained gurricane wind gusts,no way this is a cane 70mph ts,winds are 18mph ,gusting to 38 in the city,i can gaurentee last yrs blizzard was worse for the city
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Guys I know is early... but 91L hasn't been renumbered yet.


It has been.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al112011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108281137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2011, DB, O, 2011082618, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL112011
AL, 11, 2011082518, , BEST, 0, 274N, 544W, 30, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082606, , BEST, 0, 274N, 578W, 30, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082612, , BEST, 0, 274N, 590W, 30, 1017, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2011082618, , BEST, 0, 274N, 602W, 30, 1015, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082700, , BEST, 0, 276N, 613W, 30, 1014, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082706, , BEST, 0, 278N, 625W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082712, , BEST, 0, 279N, 634W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082718, , BEST, 0, 283N, 643W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082800, , BEST, 0, 291N, 649W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2011082806, , BEST, 0, 297N, 654W, 35, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

It's weird that they've renumbered it but still have it at "LO". Also weird that it's at 35 knots.. TS Jose?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1104. WxLogic
LOL... got it. Thanks for pointing that out, had to refresh my page. Carry on... it has been renumbered.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's funny to see so many that think the winds that are reported are at the surface. The winds the HH planes report for the storm are 1000's of feet above ground level and they are not building down to ground level. I belive NHC has been right on with this storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
91L Current ATCF:

AL, 91, 2011082806, , BEST, 0, 297N, 654W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


Well then.. what's up with this??
Link

invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al112011.ren

Did they take back the renumber? It stills says RENUMBER on the ATCF site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Guys I know is early... but 91L hasn't been renumbered yet.

Yes, it has been. The renum file is out; unless they made a mistake--which has been known to happen--the file on TD11 will follow in the next few minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


A blend of the NHC/NWS and Dr. Masters wind forecasts is occurring. They didn't fail us but they over estimated the impact. However for you and I it's not quite done we will see some higher winds from here putting the NHC/NWS forecast in a better light.

One thing that always gets me is how many hurricanes make landfall with a maximum sustained wind of a certain value but the highest reported wind observation is but 70% that value - and that's in a recorded gust.

It's very rare to see a storm landfall at say 75mph and see observations of 75mph sustained winds.

Why that is I don't know.

Do they find one thunderstorm in the entire giant hurricane that had 75mph wind gust? While the rest of the storm is a 50mph gale?

Probably....
One thing for sure Irene has managed to get rid of just about all the dry air south of her. Not a good thing since most systems this year have been held down by dry air. I don't think the wind is such an issue with Irene so much as the flooding is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1098. WxLogic
91L Current ATCF:

AL, 91, 2011082806, , BEST, 0, 297N, 654W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 90, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Landfall?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Err yea.. they might need to take back that renumber.

Thought TD2 last year looked bad, look at this.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Once again, well, what do you want, for them to be psychic and know which ones will collapse and which won't? Or do you want them to downplay everything just in case a storm will collapse, so when a Katrina comes along, nobody leaves?

Quoting cutgr:


well they try to sensationalize it.thats the point.when you hype hype hype then nothing happens.the next one you get what happended during katrina everyone takes it lightly because the one they hyped non stop turned out to be no different than a strong nor'easter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1093. WxLogic
Guys I know is early... but 91L hasn't been renumbered yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm not sure what surprises me more: the fact that they went ahead with the renumber already or that only one person on WU posted it.

EDIT: I spoke too soon.

Well, thanks to a coordinated and ongoing campaign (of which the forum's administrators are aware), my posts are hidden from most people. Go figure... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
trust me folks. I've been in dozens of Nor'Easters and none of them had this strong of winds for this long... the nature of these gusts I have been observing can only be described as sudden and violent. I have heard 9 transformers blown, seen many power flashes, and quite a few trees falling. Luckily my power is still on. However, over 200,000 power outages in Connecticut alone. That doesn't happen the vast majority of Nor'Easters either... in fact the total number of outages for an entire winter doesn't usually add up to that.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
18 min. till high tide.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al112011.ren

Whoa!!!! That came out of no where!


Tropical Depression 11.

Highly sheared, might not make it to TS status.

Irene's making life difficult for it.

Not interested lol. Bermuda won't see much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1088. tpabarb
Anderson Cooper seems completely befuddled by this storm as it is only drizzling where he's standing. So what's up, has it fizzled out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1138 - 1088

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.