Irene sends 4.5 foot storm surge up Chesapeake Bay
The eye of Hurricane Irene is back over water, after the hurricane completed a 11-hour crossing of eastern North Carolina. Irene came ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am EDT this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph at 7:19am, as measured by a Department of Transportation official. I suspect this measurement came when a thunderstorm near Irene's center collapsed, sending a powerful downburst to the surface. A trained spotter on Atlantic Beach, NC measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. However, no regular weather station or buoy has measured sustained hurricane force winds in Irene, with the highest winds being 67 mph at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy as Irene made landfall. Winds have peaked along the coast of Virginia, where sustained winds of 61 mph were observed at 6 pm EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Irene's passage over land weakened the storm slightly, and satellite loops show more dry air has wrapped into the storm. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is still very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area--but there is much less rain over the storm's southeastern quadrant, over water. Radar-estimated rainfall shows a 50 mile-wide band of 8+ inches of rain has fallen from where Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, northwards to Dover, Delaware. Some isolated amounts of 15+ inches may have fallen, according to the radar estimates. Bunyan, NC has received 14.00" so far, and the towns of Washington, New Bern, Grifton, Newport-Croatan, Wonona, NC, all received more than ten inches. Norfolk, Virginia had received 7.73" as of 7pm EDT, and Suffolk, Virginia, 8.00".
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Figure 2. Storm surge at Sewell's Point in Norfolk, Virginia as of 8 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 8 pm, the storm surge was 4.5 feet. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 6:30 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's shrinking hurricane-force winds (yellow and orange colors.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene over water, but very few areas of land were receiving tropical storm force winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.
Wind damage
The emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.
Tornadoes
Four tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.
Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL.
348 Hours
ooops, I fed one of the many trolls. :(
C.
Course description would include instruction in proper spelling, pronunciation, correct use of capital letters, proper English grammar, clever and pertinent content of material with regard to the flow of discussion on a blog and so forth.
Also included and offered for extra credit would be successful completion of sidebar studies, such as learning how not to use highly juvenile and easy-to-ignore ad hominem attacks and slurs, i.e: "You guys are so gay to think this storm means something...get a life or whatever.."
It seems as if the demand for such a course may be growing exponentially with the passage of time.
Here in the Carolina Lowcountry, during a tropical system, typically we would experience a surge, but it is in and back out again. Since the marshes function to distribute the water - the problem of rivers rising and cresting days later was an issue with which I was unfamiliar until North Carolina's experience with Floyd. (remember the floating pig carcasses? yikes!)
I understand the Hudson is a tidal about as far as West Point, and certainly there is plenty of marsh at it's mouth so I am guessing that the Hudson would follow the same sort of pattern as our Ashley and Cooper Rivers. Is that correct or do we need to be concerned about the Hudson cresting in a few days?
XD
At the end of Battery Park, there are plyons in the water by the wall there. The pylons probably go 5-7ft above the wall. Several times during the coverage over the lead up to Irene getting to NYC, the reporters (i.e. Cantore and last nite and a rather tall reporter from MSNBC, I think he was) continued to stress that the storm surge was going to be at hite of those pylons, if not higher, meaning of course lower Manhattan (Wall Street) would be like Mississippi was when the Katrina surge struck there.
In my humble opinion, this was irresponsible reporting at its zenith. Evidently, the geography of lower Manhattan in its relation to the OCEAN makes it very difficult for a storm surge to happen specially when the Hurricane is barely a cat 1.
Once Irene came a shore in NC then VA it was obvious it was getting weaker but the coverage continued to hype it as it was going to be the end of NYC etc as we know it. There was no way it was going to be a huge wind event after it came ashore in NC/VA but the media continued to stress the wind and of course the storm surge.
Still last nite before I turned the coverage off, the hype for probable catastrophic (sp?) damage Irene was going to cause in the NYC etc area was still being hyped. Amazingly awful reporting based on what I still can not determine.
all in all, the media overall has egg on its face with its coverage to the lead up to Irene. Hopefully it will be years before another hurricane comes close to the NYC area again. Ok get the subway up and running, it is back to work.
there actually was a big surge all along the southern New England coast. with some homes over half under water, and some flooding as far as half a mile inland. There's also a ton of tree damage. At last check over 650,000 people with no power in CT alone, over 2,000 telephone polls knocked down by winds, many rivers going into major flood stage, almost 9 inches of rain in some areas.... and maximum wind gusts recorded at 64MPH. Strong tropical storm force. Imagine was a strong Cat 1 or 2 would do here
It was these factors, coupled with others, as I am not a professional meteorologist that kept her weaker than the FORECASTED strength. we got lucky. we should be happy! because the economic and social losses of preparing for a strong storm, are MUCH MUCH MUCH less than actually experiencing a strong strorm.
Meteorology and forecasting is a science, and science is not perfect.
Irene could have just as easily been above the forecasted expectations, peaking at a strong cat 4 and bearly missing the outer banks, leaving a strong cat 2/3 for the NYC area. Then all of our dire predictions may have been true...we got lucky folks. chill out and be happy.
It is freaking mother nature we are dealing with here. She is not a robot, and I am glad she isn't. She is hard to predict just like us people haha. Just be glad many of us dodged a bullet, because some, such as those in north carolina, recieved tremendously serious flooding.
... High Wind Warning remains in effect until 8 am EDT Monday...
The National Weather Service in Burlington continues the High Wind Warning... until 8 am EDT Monday.
* Locations... Vermont and the eastern slopes of the northern Adirondacks of New York.
* Hazards... strong and damaging winds.
* Winds... north 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph.
* Timing... strong winds will develop this afternoon and continue through tonight.
* Impacts... significant tree... power line... and property damage will occur. Expect power outages and travel will also be very difficult.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
This is a dangerous weather situation! Strong winds will impact the area and cause damage and power outages. Prepare for adverse weather conditions and follow weather information from the National Weather Service in Burlington Vermont.
Haha, so dramatic and closed minded. Not even really talking about the same things here. As I said, people read stuff and twist it to suit their prerogative. If cat three hit you, flood would be least of concerns. Floods suck. Just ask all of those in Midwest who went through floods this year.
Candidly, storms such as 19 or so Noreaster seemed much worse. You guys got a weak tropical storm with a bunch of wind. That was a best case scenario and I am happy for you.
Pointless to try and go back an explain what I was talking about since you chose to jump on something said at tail end to prove your point. Look at my pictures in my album. That is what a strong hurricane does. That is a slab of a four story condo unit you see wiped clean with cars thirty feet up in trees hundreds of yards away after the earth was wiped clean for a 1/2 mile. Then look around NYC. Count your blessings and prayers your way that everything will be alright.
I don't think so
I'm in NW VT and can confirm that Irene is still here. It's still raining and the winds are still with us. Watching my neighbour's near tree with a wary eye and wish the High Wind Warning wasn't up for all night to 8am. And people north and east of me still have this to deal with. Yes, Irene is not a hurricane anymore, but the storm isn't "over" just because there are no major cities in its path anymore!
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