Irene hits North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:37 PM GMT on August 27, 2011

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Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.


Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.


Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)
Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)
Battery Park, the night before Irene...

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784. atmosweather
9:14 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting thegoldenstrand:


Any thoughts on what kind of storm this could have been if it tracked about 40 miles east of where it did???


It wouldn't have made much difference considering how large the system is, and would have actually placed almost all of the hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant to the east of the Outer Banks. In terms of organization and intensity, as noted by the NHC forecaster at the 5PM advisory, the central core of Irene tightened up and became better defined on radar throughout the morning, which sometimes happens as the turbulent effects of land contribute to the storm contracting and trying to find more latent heat to tap into.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
783. katadman
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting IMA:

Ah, Leon Springs. I was thinking Helotes, but I'm easily confused. lol I'm near Bandera/1604 area. It was a tough move to make, but I still head out to Bandera Gun Club lots. lol

Yeah, this weather is lousy. I may be going to PA to house-and-dog-sit while ex is deployed (for flooding), and that cooler forecast definitely is appealing!


WUmail
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081
782. presslord
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting Krycek1984:


Right, it's kids. Yes, we are all 15 y/o's.

Who cares if you put someone on ignore...wasn't it you that proudly exclaimed 80 people on your ignore list? That's ridiculous and childish, not calling out trolls and fear-mongering.


+1
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
781. IceCoast
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Virginia beach Cams
Link
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
779. HurricaneSwirl
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Wilma, 882.

Irene has ZERO chance of being that. Your GUESS is more of that over-hype.


What the heck? Wilma wasn't at 882 as a tropical storm...
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
778. thegoldenstrand
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Wilma, 882.

Irene has ZERO chance of being that. Your GUESS is more of that over-hype.


Excellent correction. I don't know the lowest pressure for a storm while it is categorized as a tropical storm either, but 950 as a tropical storm might be the lowest recently

But... back to Wilma... when it hit the keys... not that strong, but it really flooded everything really bad... about a 8 foot storm surge... Now that was a monster. I sure hope the folks on the Atlantic coast don't have the salt water coming in to the low lying areas like the Keys did resulting in one helluva buzzard population for a year or two afterwards.
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
777. tiggeriffic
9:13 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting LoveObama:
I'm really disappointed because I have followed this blog for years and I'm called a troll when my family is in danger. I guess when the situation from Aurora is reported on the news maybe you all will believe me then. I am sure I won't be the last person to make connection with the blog worried about family members in the next day or two and I hope you all aren't complete jerks to them like you were to me.

I am sending prayers for my family and hoping that they are safe.


like i said...hoping you are not as accused...have you tried calling 911 from your area and asked to be connected to Aurora? I have actually done this from SC to Texas...you can also get the number for the local PD from the internet and call that way...if the situation is real, God will hear the prayers
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
776. DallasGumby
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Wilma, 882.

Irene has ZERO chance of being that. Your GUESS is more of that over-hype.
Then again, maybe never mind. If you're saying lowest pressure for a tropical storm, rather than a tropical system - I dunno and maybe.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
775. Krycek1984
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting mynameispaul:


Lots of kids posting on here. Helps to put them on ignore immediately.


Right, it's kids. Yes, we are all 15 y/o's.

Who cares if you put someone on ignore...wasn't it you that proudly exclaimed 80 people on your ignore list? That's ridiculous and childish, not calling out trolls and fear-mongering.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
774. ncCANEiac
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting LoveObama:
I'm really disappointed because I have followed this blog for years and I'm called a troll when my family is in danger. I guess when the situation from Aurora is reported on the news maybe you all will believe me then. I am sure I won't be the last person to make connection with the blog worried about family members in the next day or two and I hope you all aren't complete jerks to them like you were to me.

I am sending prayers for my family and hoping that they are safe.


I am big enough to apologize. Trying to inject a little humor into this not so humorous day we have had in NC. No harm intended. We all hope your family is safe.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
773. GPackwood
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:




i pick D


I am only paying attention to anything and everything having to do with water because of the size of the storm.

If it is a TS or Cat. #1 doesn't have much to do with anything now that we can see how much territory this storm covers.

It is how much water is being pushed ahead of the storm.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
772. AstroHurricane001
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Capturing Irene's northern outflow boundary

Below image was taken in Southern Ontario, at 4:00 pm looking ENE, around the time when Irene's outflow band was crossing over Lake Ontario. The outflow brought in altocumulus, cirrocumulus and cirrostratus clouds, while a weakening frontal boundary encountering stable air rushed in with some stratocumulus and cumulus clouds underneath. The higher-altitude clouds had a distinct "lenticular" texture, suggesting perhaps some stronger winds aloft, while the collision of two types of cloud produced a pileus effect.



The second image was snapped a minute later. In it, a high-altitude cloud's edge has some pockets of cirrocumulus details while stratocumulus abound to the bottom-right.



No precipitation occurred, though the sky got dark about half an hour later as the higher-altitude clouds partly obscured the Sun, and stratocumulus followed closely underneath. The higher clouds slowly drifted east-to-west, while the clouds themselves moved north-to-south, strongly hinting at Irene's influence.

I still remember seeing Hurricane Isabel's rainless disk a full 24 hours before the strong winds and rain arived back in 2003.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
771. SamWells
9:12 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


i highly doubt it will be a tropical storm that soon


Seems like the 5 o'clock just reduced the storm to 70 kt and talked about Irene gradually falling apart to a weak Cat-1 or even a tropical storm? Sounds about right to me.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
769. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
768. Krycek1984
9:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting DallasGumby:
Wilma, 882.

Irene has ZERO chance of being that. Your GUESS is more of that over-hype.


He meant Tropical Storm, not Tropical Cyclone. i.e. winds below 75 mph.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
766. mynameispaul
9:11 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting LoveObama:
I'm really disappointed because I have followed this blog for years and I'm called a troll when my family is in danger. I guess when the situation from Aurora is reported on the news maybe you all will believe me then. I am sure I won't be the last person to make connection with the blog worried about family members in the next day or two and I hope you all aren't complete jerks to them like you were to me.

I am sending prayers for my family and hoping that they are safe.


Lots of kids posting on here. Helps to put them on ignore immediately.
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 369
765. DallasGumby
9:10 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting 900MB:


What's the lowest pressure ever for a tropical storm? My guess is that it will be Irene in 3-6 hours.
Wilma, 882.

Irene has ZERO chance of being that.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 376
764. IceCoast
9:10 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Duck Pier, North Carolina is reporting a pressure of 955mb east of the eye, not even inside it. This is not a storm to take lightly. Could you imagine a 955mb nor'easter coming up the coast like this?


No, I can not. That would be epic.

Looks like Virginia beach is going to get it pretty bad soon.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
763. treehuggingsister
9:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.


Oy. They do say timing is everything...
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
761. Torgen
9:08 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting ncCANEiac:


Judging from the "handle", I think it is Bush's fault!!

Sorry. Had to say it!!


No you didn't.
Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
760. GTcooliebai
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
759. Vero1
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Every storm has an A-M-A-N-D-A.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
758. Levi32
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Duck Pier, North Carolina is reporting a pressure of 955mb east of the eye, not even inside it. This is not a storm to take lightly. Could you imagine a 955mb nor'easter coming up the coast like this?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
756. wxdrone
9:07 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting kathyvb:


Probably tourists...or just all the dumb people are out.


You're right, tourists maybe. I thought they were under a mandatory evac, but maybe I don't understand how those work.
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
754. thegoldenstrand
9:06 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:
Good afternoon guys and gals...everyone who is riding out Irene in an area under watches and warnings please please please stay safe and good luck to you! As we discussed during the night, the winds that crashed ashore at landfall in NC were 10-15% stronger than those measured by the hurricane hunters at the surface. The effects of turbulence and friction created by the land cannot be understated. And she seems to be maintaining her intensity while moving towards the NE NC coast which is not unexpected for this particular storm, but still quite remarkable in the big picture. Irene is very likely to remain at hurricane status all the way to her second lanfall in the northeast.


Any thoughts on what kind of storm this could have been if it tracked about 40 miles east of where it did???
Member Since: August 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
753. lottotexas
9:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
ouch 20" of rain could fall from this storm


RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
very BAD
Member Since: December 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
752. eyetoothtom1
9:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Just heard from my ole navy buddy from '60's in Jaxville N.C. All is well.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
751. PlazaRed
9:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2011
Quoting IceCoast:
An amazing system. Blog seems pretty slow for the First landfalling Hurricane since 08.


Afternoon everybody.
Thanks for all your comments we are glued to what you have to say. The only problem is that we cant read fast enough to keep up and some of this stuff you post is very interesting. I'm going to bookmark these blogs to read in the winter.
A point of interest, if anybody has time to read it. I have been in areas of very high levels of ground saturation and what is not generally known is that if the ground is 100% soaked with water even though the inclines may be very slight the surface starts to slide rather like lava, it cant be stopped and it happens a lot in rich farmland with deep soil, whole houses and roads can slide.
This amount of water is going to cause this in a lot of areas, the effects will continue in some cases for weeks after the rains stop and warnings for this should be issued, IE storm passes today, next week house slides down hillside/incline.
That big inlet to the east of Washington is going to be an area of extreme interest in the next few hours.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how is grandma talking to you from the roof on her i phone which is soaking wet held in her hand texting all the while 75 mp-h wind gusts blowing into her face yet all this is done while not holding onto her roof but typing on a i phone unless she got the laptop or desktop on the roof with her wow either way kinda hard to believe

tell grandma to hold on doing great all most over


you're killin' me
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
ouch 20" of rain could fall from this storm


RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon guys and gals...everyone who is riding out Irene in an area under watches and warnings please please please stay safe and good luck to you! As we discussed during the night, the winds that crashed ashore at landfall in NC were 10-15% stronger than those measured by the hurricane hunters at the surface. The effects of turbulence and friction created by the land cannot be understated. And she seems to be maintaining her intensity while moving towards the NE NC coast which is not unexpected for this particular storm, but still quite remarkable in the big picture. Irene is very likely to remain at hurricane status all the way to her second lanfall in the northeast.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting 900MB:


What's the lowest pressure ever for a tropical storm? My guess is that it will be Irene in 3-6 hours.


How are things in NYC right now? Are you in danger of flooding?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rockcity340:


Dont think you understand what he is trying to say no one really cared when the storm was affecting the Bahamas there was almost no mention of it when it was over them now its the big story since its affecting the US but its always typicall the same thing happens when a storm affects the caribbean islands cause there ppl who will call it a fish storm once it doest affect the US


Well if some Bahamas islands such as Long Island, Cat Cay, Acklins, and others had a population of 55 million people, nearly 90 percent of the structures might be uninhabitable.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
Quoting 900MB:


What's the lowest pressure ever for a tropical storm? My guess is that it will be Irene in 3-6 hours.


i highly doubt it will be a tropical storm that soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 272057
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT SFMR DATA...BUT BASED ON THE EARLIER SHARP DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...COLDER WATERS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME
TO SPIN DOWN...HOWEVER...IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
YORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE
ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

THE CENTER CONTINUED NORTHWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT HAS RESUMED A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 015/11. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48
HOURS IT SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NOTE THAT ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH
THIS ADVISORY...TO 20 INCHES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 36.2N 76.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 38.1N 75.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 41.7N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 46.2N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z 50.7N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 59.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 61.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting LoveObama:


When I made the name I made it with the expectation that I would never be posting. I am just scared and came here to see if anyone had any news from the area. Aurora has been known to flood but not like this.
I am wondering if calling the Weather Channel might be a good way to find out what is going on. I cannot imagine that they would not be interested in the story. (I am amazed that they are not aware of it already).
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Good afternoon everyone...

...IRENE ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 76.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
738. Relix
Something is so off about the pressure and the winds. So. So. SOO. Off.
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getting steady rain here north of boston.
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Quoting fragileuk:

If you ever get a chance to look at the book titled Paradise Interupted you would be even more amazed that only these 2 were killed! If anyone is ever in any doubt about following gov. instructions look at this book before you make your call.
That book is great. I bought a copy for my father. I don't think a lot of people realize how bad it was. BUT, we are back and I pray we never see another Ivn.
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734. 900MB
Quoting largeeyes:
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 27
Location: 36.2°N 76.0°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb


What's the lowest pressure ever for a tropical storm? My guess is that it will be Irene in 3-6 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.