Irene hits North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:37 PM GMT on August 27, 2011

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Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.


Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.


Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)
Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)
Battery Park, the night before Irene...

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884. wpb
high rise structures wind speed plus 20 to 30%
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nvm
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Quoting Levi32:
Last Observed Sample: 08/27/2011 17:12 (EDT)
Wind Speed: 56 knots Gusts: 69 knots Direction: 149° T

Last Observed Sample: 08/27/2011 17:12 (EDT)
Barometric Pressure: 950.6 mb


Levi, you think, this maybe what the ECMWF (Euro) Model has originally seen? Actually, it's not really 913 mb but - related to circumstances - unbelievable strong.
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Quoting violet312s:


I'm only 5 miles from Chapel Hill in Durham. We barely got a 1/3" of rain :(

However some of those gusts were rather strong. Looks like we're totally out of the woods now.


Basically no rain here.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Well, what does it mean?


She's been maintaining a pressure of 950mb for over 24 hours now, through having dry air rip up her eye and destroy the entire eyewall, and now through 9 hours of being over the outer banks of North Carolina with weakening convection and a total collapse of the eye feature at the center. That shouldn't be possible, but it has happened. She isn't filling. Too much air is getting exhausted from the system through both tropical and baroclinic processes. It's simply incredible - not to mention that her winds aren't stronger than Cat 1 with that pressure for now.
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Ifind it humorous because my neighbor left la to get a way from hurricanes... coincidently he went near dc... hahaha
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Just noting that as this storm starts to pass over Norfolk and into the mouth of THE CHESAPEAKE BAY area, there will probably be massive damage to any moored craft, especially if they are on short chains, the buffeting will be enough to cause severe hull damage and breaking of mooring lines.
Added to this I suppose that there will be thousands of shoreline homes and holiday home which were never built to withstand big storm surges and high winds.
The whole Chesapeake bay area is going to look like a bomb hit it in 24 hours.
Stay safe everybody over in these areas.
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It got pretty bad last night - We went to bed around 11:30 PM and we had power. However, we all got up around 5AM when the winds starting howling. There are A LOT of trees down, and damage to mobile homes. Flooding wasn't a BIG BIG issue because of our drought, but our backyard and frontyard are still like a river. From what I have heard, it got really bad in the coastal areas.

Other than that, GOOD BYE IRENE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting petewxwatcher:
Pressure continuing to fall and winds continuing to increase at Duck Pier. If the 1.5 mb pressure error is accurate then the central pressure is 946 mb.


If it is, then the NE is in for a long night.
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Quoting largeeyes:
NEW BERN, N.C. (AP) -- A New Bern man suffered a head injury after strong winds blew down a large billboard that struck a mobile home where he was working.

Forty-four-year-old Gary Henderson said he was helping a friend move furniture Saturday afternoon when the billboard toppled into three trailers, sending pieces of metal debris flying through the air.

Henderson was treated at the scene by emergency responders and then was taken by his family to a hospital in Havelock for further evaluation.

His friend, Andrew Owens, was not injured.

Henderson said he was surprised to be alive after the incident.

The billboard, advertising a local marina, reads: "Anything is possible."


This is from a while back in the blog, but wow what a coincidence!
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Quoting Levi32:
Pressure at Duck Pier rising back up to 951mb and the wind is veering to the south, so Irene may be passing west of the station. It reached a minimum of 950.6mb in 60kt winds. That means that Irene could even be sub-950mb at her center. That's simply incredible, and only you guys, weather geeks like me, can appreciate what that means.


It's truly one of the deepest storms I have seen in recent memory compared to its winds.
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Quoting MrsBoomerNC:


First time I've seen someone from CH here, besides myself - I lurk, rarely post. Some of our gusts today were surprising, given our distance from the CoC. Lack of rain was disappointing. I'm in contact w/Ocracoke Island - a quick survey in the past hour revealed a few downed trees, but little damage otherwise. They're braced for possible flooding when the sound comes rushing back in.


I'm here a lot! I'm over in Carrboro. Agree with the wind, I think some were at least 50 mph.
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Pressure continuing to fall and winds continuing to increase at Duck Pier. If the 1.5 mb pressure error is accurate then the central pressure is 946 mb.
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Quoting MrsBoomerNC:


First time I've seen someone from CH here, besides myself - I lurk, rarely post. Some of our gusts today were surprising, given our distance from the CoC. Lack of rain was disappointing. I'm in contact w/Ocracoke Island - a quick survey in the past hour revealed a few downed trees, but little damage otherwise. They're braced for possible flooding when the sound comes rushing back in.


I'm only 5 miles from Chapel Hill in Durham. We barely got a 1/3" of rain :(

However some of those gusts were rather strong. Looks like we're totally out of the woods now.
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Quoting violet312s:


WOOT for you! So how was last night?


Windy...and wet. :)
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Quoting dader:
Levi or anyone-

I am about 60 miles east (Hamptons, Long Island) of where Irene is supposed to landfall here (around Howard Beach, Queens). Besides the surge (which should be nasty) how do you think the wind/rain effects will be on the east side? Particularly farther away from the center?

From what I see, the Western side of the eye has the most rain/wind effects. Do you see the eastern side filling in?

Thanks!


We've seen the winds in Nags Head, NC gusting to 70mph even with no rain falling in that dry part of the storm. The winds may still be an issue. It is true that Irene will be like a nor'east in that the NW quad will be the wettest and windiest, but if she maintains any kind of a core convective area over the water south of Long Island, there will be effects felt east of the center as well for several dozen miles. The northern part of the storm would affect you before the dry eastern part got there anyway.
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Quoting Levi32:
Pressure at Duck Pier rising back up to 951mb and the wind is veering to the south, so Irene may be passing west of the station. It reached a minimum of 950.6mb in 60kt winds. That means that Irene could even be sub-950mb at her center. That's simply incredible, and only you guys, weather geeks like me, can appreciate what that means.


Appreciation for this storm is very high
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Irene is such a naughty girl. She's breaking all the rules.
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Quoting Levi32:
Pressure at Duck Pier rising back up to 951mb and the wind is veering to the south, so Irene may be passing west of the station. It reached a minimum of 950.6mb in 60kt winds. That means that Irene could even be sub-950mb at her center. That's simply incredible, and only you guys, weather nerds like me, can appreciate what that means.


Well, what does it mean?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2933
Hi All,

I don't post much, but I just found out that my sister, her husband, and their two little boys have decided to ride out the storm where they're vacationing in Southampton NY - because their neighborhood in Manhattan was evacuated.

I'm a little upset about it...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POWER!!!!!!!!!!


And hopefully, no damage.
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Quoting unc70:
Irene has only moved 0.1 longitude eastward during the day, but it looks more than that on the radar loops. Part of the reason is that the Outer Banks of NC are not N-S; more like NNW-SSE. It gives a visual illusion that the movement has a larger eastward component.

A big problem for everyone north of NC are the large bands of rain west of the CoC that are slowly moving SSW now and will be wrapping around south and then east over the next few hours. These bands will be positioned to slam into NJ, NY from the east later tonight.

I am in Chapel Hill on the far western edge of this rain and wind. Even this far away, probably had a gust of 55-60 during the past hour that dropped several large limbs into my yard. Lots of power outages around CH, Raleigh, and Durham. Certainly not complaining because family and friends down east are being hit hard.

This storm is very dangerous anywhere that is poorly prepared and hasn't dealt with storms like this in recent memory. NC learned its lessons from Hugo, Fran, and Floyd. The destruction will still be enormous.


First time I've seen someone from CH here, besides myself - I lurk, rarely post. Some of our gusts today were surprising, given our distance from the CoC. Lack of rain was disappointing. I'm in contact w/Ocracoke Island - a quick survey in the past hour revealed a few downed trees, but little damage otherwise. They're braced for possible flooding when the sound comes rushing back in.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POWER!!!!!!!!!!


How bad did it get for you?
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861. 996tt
Another possible death. Guy at NS Beach Florida East Coast was down and getting CPR this afternoon. The roped the area off and transported him out. He was 55 and a teacher. Apparently took a hit on the head when standing in surf and getting knocked over.

Peeps stay out of the water if you don't know what your doing. Some people have no idea how heavy a wave can be. Seen lots of broken surf boards the last two days if that can give you any idea.
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Pressure at Duck Pier rising back up to 951mb and the wind is veering to the south, so Irene may be passing west of the station. It reached a minimum of 950.6mb in 60kt winds. That means that Irene could even be sub-950mb at her center. That's simply incredible, and only you guys, weather geeks like me, can appreciate what that means.
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Pressure at 29.60" or lower from Jacksonville, FL to Atlantic City, NJ.
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Irene is a big girl:

Click for full-size image:
Irene
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POWER!!!!!!!!!!


WOOT for you! So how was last night?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
POWER!!!!!!!!!!


hes back
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855. dader
Levi or anyone-

I am about 60 miles east (Hamptons, Long Island) of where Irene is supposed to landfall here (around Howard Beach, Queens). Besides the surge (which should be nasty) how do you think the wind/rain effects will be on the east side? Particularly farther away from the center?

From what I see, the Western side of the eye has the most rain/wind effects. Do you see the eastern side filling in?

Thanks!
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LARGER image


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
Quoting NCSaint:
Power's back on in parts of Onslow County now. MAN am I glad that was only a Cat 1!! Had a funnel run through the tree tops right behind my house and sucked my 12X16 metal shed right off it's footing, but otherwise just some minor shingle damage. I really hate when they approach overnight like Irene did.


Good news! Man, hate those pine trees there when they get snapping like that. Lived in College Park off Western Blvd for 6 yrs and had one run just north of us. Not fun. Glad you're okay.
Member Since: August 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 188
POWER!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting DocNDswamp:
Irene pretty much on expected NNE track right along the seaboard... Interesting the NWD motion shift prior to landfall and into E NC, as appeared for a while last night would track closer to Hatteras... However, from what I recall, the GFS had indicated that temporary bend back to the left induced by combined approaching trof weakness / the orientation of Atlantic ridge building NW-ward simultaneously, holding firm... More or less ECMWF did same... Overall, the guidance from those two models has been excellent as usual when it counts most. Often the case, can note last several days the NHC has just split it's track between their narrow range.

Also find amazing how the steering pattern projections send Irene far NEWD into northern latitudes / near polar regions within 3-4 days, higher up than many... If ever wanted to see a classic example of a tropical cyclone transporting heat from the tropics to the poles, and doing it quite literally, this is a good one!

Safe wishes continue for all of you affected within Irene's wide swath.


Excellent to see you Doc...great discussion points as usual.
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Press, much of the area is under curfew FYI.
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Marlboro, NJ
75°F | °C Sat
Overcast
Wind: E at 18 mph
Humidity: 94%
it is pouring here. literally like walls of rain are coming down. very scary..
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I manage to save some of the battery life for my laptop.So I'm not gonna be on here long.Power is lost.So far I've herd about one death here in N.C.Havn't here much about anything today really due to power being out.However I've been in touch with my family from time to time.Their conditions are starting to really deteriorate.
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Pamlico, Neuse River and such should start dropping as the winds now come out of the west, North west.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1.
more dangerous than your nomal cat 1
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BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT
THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE
SURFACE.

I noticed that a little while ago...quite remarkable for a fully warm core tropical system.
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Power's back on in parts of Onslow County now. MAN am I glad that was only a Cat 1!! Had a funnel run through the tree tops right behind my house and sucked my 12X16 metal shed right off it's footing, but otherwise just some minor shingle damage. I really hate when they approach overnight like Irene did.
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Norfolk
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1.


is the pressure and wind speed not in some way relative to the total size of the wind field?
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Found a beach/surf cam on Long Beach NY....

http://www.longbeachsurfcam.com/forecast.html
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@wunderground
Weather Underground
NBC: 10 foot high sand dunes built on Long Island to protect from high tide and heavy surf #Irene
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still a 950 mb storm?? That's amazing, especially for a Category 1.


I think the extra energy from the interaction with the approaching mid latitude system is helping her maintain her low pressure...it is adding to the convective instability on the western flank while also decreasing the pressure gradient further. I don't see her weakening much if at all up until landfall in the northeast.
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128764
WITN reporting 13.5" rain at the station. Yowza.
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Quoting breald:
If this is a dupe question please forgive me, it seems the blog ate my original post.

With Irene taking a more inland track will that put Southern New England in a better position, or does it not matter because of her size? Thanks.


Boston AFD:

HURRICANE IRENE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CONNECTICUT AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SUMMARY OF MAIN IMPACTS...

1) DAMAGING WINDS. IRENE HAS SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60
MPH...WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE ALSO LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA
AND SOUTHWEST NH...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IRENE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT
THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE
SURFACE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SW TO WSW WINDS
BEHIND IRENE WILL ALSO PROBABLY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH...WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES...WITH CORRESPONDING PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES.

2) SERIOUS FLOODING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA. BUT ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OF
IRENE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT.
5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHESHIRE COUNTY NH TO WESTERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...TO HARTFORD COUNTY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
IN THE SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. FARTHER TO THE EAST...3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE. LESSER AMOUNTS OUT ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

THIS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFICS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

3) POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE STORM SURGE/COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER
PORTION OF NARRAGANSETT BAY...A 2 TO 4 FOOT STORM SURGE IS
POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF THE MORNING HIGH TIDE JUST BEFORE 8 AM.
A 3 TO 6 FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE THERE ON THE INCOMING
EVENING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM. IN BUZZARDS BAY...A 4 TO 7
FOOT STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY ON
THE INCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE. EVEN THOUGH IRENE WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THEN...VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY...WHICH IS ORIENTED FROM WSW
TO ENE AS WELL. THE WATER PILED UP FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL
NOT HAVE HAD MUCH CHANCE TO EXIT THE BAY BEFORE THE TIDE IS
INCOMING AND WINDS ARE FROM THE WSW IN THE EVENING. MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH
TIDE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CAPE COD.

4) HIGH SURF WILL OCCUR ALONG EXPOSED RI AND SOUTHEAST MA COASTS
AND THIS WILL CAUSE EROSION. THERE IS A VERY HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON ALL OF THE MA AND RI COASTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

5) A FEW WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDE
OF IRENE. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
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The Duck Pier note about the pressure recording too low by 1.5 mb means we should use it with caution. What if it is wrong by more? But if that figure for the discrepancy is accurate the central pressure is 947 mb or lower.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.