Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Irene hits North Carolina

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:37 PM GMT on August 27, 2011

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Hurricane Irene roared ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am this morning. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 110 mph at 7:19am, and a trained spotter on Atlantic Beach measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. Winds at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy, which the eye passed directly over, peaked at 67 mph as Irene made landfall. At 10am EDT, top winds observed at Cape Hatteras on the Outer Banks of North Carolina were 53 mph, gusting to 73 mph. Winds are rising now along the coast of Virginia, with sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 62 mph observed at 10 am EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Satellite loops show a large but deteriorating storm with dry air intruding to the southwest. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area.

Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from Irene as of 12:18 pm EDT August 27, 2011. An expanding region of rains in excess of ten inches (pick colors) was observed north of where the center made landfall.

Storm surge damage from Irene
The storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the greatest damage, and this will be a historic coastal flooding event for many regions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A storm surge of 8.5 feet was reported this morning in North Harlow, NC, and three feet in New Bern, NC. Significant wave heights (the average height of the largest 1/3 of the waves) reached 27 feet at Onslow Bay, NC this morning, and wave heights along the New Jersey shore Sunday morning during the time of high tide are expected to be 15 - 20 feet, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 2.) A storm surge of 3 - 6 feet is expected near Atlantic City, NJ Sunday morning, during the time of high tide. With 15 - 20 foot waves expected on top of this storm surge, there will be tremendous damage to the coast and low-lying structures. Storm surge is also a major concern for New York City. The latest NWS forecast is calling for a 5 - 8 foot storm surge in New York Harbor, which would easily top the flood walls protecting the south end of Manhattan if the storm surge occurs at high tide. High tide is near 8 am Sunday morning. A research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook predicts that water levels at The Battery at the south end of Manhattan will peak at 2.2 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at high tide Sunday morning, which would be about six inches below the top of the flood wall (which is 5 feet above mean sea level.) Waves on top of the surge would likely spill over the top of the floodwall in this scenario, and cause some flooding in southern Manhattan. Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog has links to a storm surge animation for New York City done by the SUNY Stonybrook group. Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation. Storm surge heights of up to eight feet are predicted in Western Long Island Sound, and 3 - 6 feet along much of the New England coast from New York to Massachusetts. This is going to be a damaging coastal flooding event for this stretch of coast, though perhaps not as damaging as the one New Jersey will experience.

Figure 2. Predicted wave heights along the U.S. coast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model for 8am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2011. This is the time of high tide, and this model is suggesting that the coast of New Jersey will be subject to battering waves 15 - 20 feet high at the time of high tide.

Inland flooding damage from Irene
Inland flash flooding and river flooding from torrential rains are a major concern. Latest radar-estimated rainfall amounts in North Carolina already exceed ten inches in some locations. Cedar Island, NC has reported 7.21" as of 11am EDT, and a 100 mile-wide swath of 8+ inches of rain will likely fall from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City, and into Vermont and New Hampshire during the next two days. Destructive river flooding will be a significant danger from New Jersey northwards to Southeast New York, where soils are saturated and run-off will be the greatest.

Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 260 miles from the center of Irene. Irene's storm surge damage potential has dropped to 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, down from a high of 5.1 yesterday. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damage
Irene is slowly deteriorating, but the storm is too large to weaken quickly. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, so only North Carolina's Outer Banks will get winds of 75 - 80 mph. The coast from Virginia northwards through New Jersey will see tropical storm-force winds of 50 - 70 mph from Irene. These strong winds, when combined with the torrential rains that are falling, will cause widespread tree damage and power failures that will affect millions of people. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 60 -70 mph.

Lady Liberty not in danger from Irene
The Statue of Liberty is not vulnerable to a storm surge, since the good lady stands atop a 65-foot high foundation and 89-foot high granite pedestal. However, the 305' height of the lady's torch above the foundation means the statue will experience winds a full Saffir-Simpson category higher than winds at the surface. The statue is rated to survive a wind load of 58 psf, which is roughly equivalent to 120 mph winds (Category 3 hurricane). However, a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds will be able to generate 120 mph winds at a height of 300 feet, and would theoretically be capable of toppling the Statue of Liberty. Winds from Irene should stay below 80 mph at 300 feet, and not pose a threat to the Statue of Liberty.

Tornadoes
Two tornadoes were reported in coastal North Carolina last night. One tornado destroyed 2 homes and damaged 6 others in Columbia, with several minor injuries, and the other hit Belhaven, damaging multiple trailers. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is calling for a slight risk of severe weather along coast Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware today. We might see five or ten tornadoes from Irene over the next two days, but the atmosphere is not unstable enough for Irene to generate as many tornadoes as we're used to seeing from a landfalling hurricane. A tornado watch is posted for coastal areas from Eastern North Carolina northwards to Southern New Jersey.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene, 60% in the Bahamas.

Typhoon Nanmadol
Over in the Western Pacific, Typhoon Nanmadol has weakened to a Category 3 storm after battering the Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. At least two people have been killed in the heavy flooding there. Nanmadol is a threat to Taiwan, and Wunderground meteorologist Elaine Yang (who hails from Taiwan), has the details in her blog.

Links
Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Jeff Masters

Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)

Downed street light broken by strong gusts of Irene.

Battery Park, the night before Irene... (line)

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1501. weatherman321 12:56 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Death toll went up to 8... A man just drowned in New Jersey.... Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 139

1502. lilasc 12:56 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Got a good whack from Irene here in northeastern SC yesterday and this morning despite being a good distance from the eye... please don't underestimate her, she's in a bad mood! Thoughts, prayers, and good wishes to everyone out there who still has more of her to go. Us down here may not have much to say, but we are thinking of you and hoping for your safety. Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

1503. o22sail 12:56 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting presslord: not that anybody asked...but I think there may be something to what's been said here....for my whole life...and probably longer...there has been a distinct and undeniable bias against Southerners from the rest of the country.....and a clear message that they don't much give a damn when we suffer....if there is a certain lack of interest...it may be understandable... It could be a complement Press... They expect us to be self-reliant and treat us as such. You do great work BTW. tnx! Member Since: August 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

1504. Charmeck 12:57 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting weatherjr: Apart from rain I do not expect major problems for NY city. STOP! People are dying - there was just another person reported killed in NJ. There are tornados doing lots of damage - this storm is not blowing itself out - it is just too big. It will be bad when it gets to NYC and beyond. Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 135

1505. Beachfoxx 12:57 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Press, Any word from our friend???? I'm going to be away from computer for a bit - dinner beckons... and no one seems to be able to answer my question regarding flooding in that area and the other. I need to go check my Great Uncles address, I may have the wrong island. Will pop back in soon. YOLO Quoting presslord: not that anybody asked...but I think there may be something to what's been said here....for my whole life...and probably longer...there has been a distinct and undeniable bias against Southerners from the rest of the country.....and a clear message that they don't much give a damn when we suffer....if there is a certain lack of interest...it may be understandable... Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 154 Comments: 29287

1506. victoriahurricane 12:58 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
NEW BLOG Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544

1507. presslord 12:58 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting Beachfoxx: Press, Any word from our friend???? I'm going to be away from computer for a bit - dinner beckons... and no one seems to be able to answer my question regarding flooding in that area and the other. I need to go check my Great Uncles address, I may have the wrong island. Will pop back in soon. YOLO no word yet...will keep ya posted...I have his address...will look into it Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

1508. Beachfoxx 12:59 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Thanks Skye! TTYL -- Stay Safe! PEACE YOLO Quoting Skyepony: The Battery, NY is having their last high tide before their high tide with storm surge max. They can expect about 2 ft more than they are having now with the next high tide. Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 154 Comments: 29287

1509. PcolaDan 12:59 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
NEWBLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG 15 minutes ago Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

1510. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:00 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
NEW BLOG Like, a long time ago. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25992

1511. Cayman2010 1:00 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: Sounds like Cosmic hit a nerve with a lot of people. Too close to home for many? These people he was referring to are here all the time on weekends and nights making their "predictions" and calling each other out. They were here earlier playing down the hurricane and calling it a disappointment. But they disappeared when things really started happening. They never seemed to have another life nor family obligations before, so why now all of the sudden. Where are they now? Hiding. This line seems to have been missed by most of you - "Of course there's plenty of good observers as well." To me he was talking about the ones making good observations and trying to help. Maybe I just read it different than so many of you. The argument is illogical. Why would you want those people to be on here? If they are so self-centred then why are you worried they are not here? Surely it is better that they are not. So no, he didn't hit a nerve - he simply insulted many people who do not fall into the category he described (whilst those to whom it may apply aren't even here). Maybe avoid generalisation. Member Since: August 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83

1512. NJcat3cane 1:01 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
TORANDO WARNING!! SOMEONE PLEASE TRACK THE TORNADIC STORM IN ac FOR ME LET ME KNO ASAP Member Since: August 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1513. GeoffreyWPB 1:02 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248

1514. PalmBeacher1228 1:02 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting jerseygrl: Just reported 52 mph gusts. I don't know the source of that report--sorry. Thank You!! Member Since: August 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

1515. breald 1:03 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting presslord: not that anybody asked...but I think there may be something to what's been said here....for my whole life...and probably longer...there has been a distinct and undeniable bias against Southerners from the rest of the country.....and a clear message that they don't much give a damn when we suffer....if there is a certain lack of interest...it may be understandable... Press, I am a Yankee that prefers the South, but I can say with certainty, that the bias works both ways. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303

1516. Skyepony (Mod) 1:05 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 547 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1115 AM HIGH SURF NEW SMYRNA BEACH 29.02N 80.93W 08/27/2011 VOLUSIA FL BROADCAST MEDIA * 1 FATAL * 55-YO SURFER KNOCKED OVER IN SHALLOW WATER BY A WAVE AND HIT HIS HEAD. NO VITAL SIGNS UPON RESCUE AND LATER PRONOUNCED DEAD. && $$ ARB Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29993

1517. FloodingDownInTexas 1:07 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting NJcat3cane: TORANDO WARNING!! SOMEONE PLEASE TRACK THE TORNADIC STORM IN ac FOR ME LET ME KNO ASAP It appears that the storm is west of atlantic city moving toward estell manor, mays landing and buena vista, it looks like it's passed the atlantic city area. Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 28

1518. Patrap 1:09 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 113014

1519. Joshfsu123 1:10 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting bwi: Just got our power back on! First time I've ever said "Yay Pepco!" (We'll see how long it lasts.) I've got enough gas to run the generator for 5 days on and off. Hopefully the winds will stay moderate, and it'll just be short term outages from tree limbs, not long-term outages like Isabel where whole power lines fell... Our power has stayed on so far but it is starting to flicker... with this strong band of rain and wind gusting to 60mph about to move through in an hour or two, not hopeful. Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 575

1520. ScottLincoln 1:12 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting NJcat3cane: TORANDO WARNING!! SOMEONE PLEASE TRACK THE TORNADIC STORM IN ac FOR ME LET ME KNO ASAP The best place for information during urgent severe weather situations is from your local TV/radio stations. They will usually have the most up-to-date information from your local officials. If you are under a tornado warning - particularly if mentioned in the warning - do not wait for blog information to act. Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1788

1521. STLweatherjunkie 1:15 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting breald: I would agree with you because her eye is over open water. It certainly will not weaken much. her eye has essentially fallen apart already, there is only one clump of cold cloud tops on the north side of the circulation, the core doesn't have any protection on the south side left and the strongest winds don't actually appear to be with the COC anymore. There was just a 58 mpg gust in Richmond, probably similar gusts all along that particular band. This is a clear sign that this is extratropical, and because of this I think it will still end up doing similar amounts of damage to a more widespread area. Due to the tropical nature of the atmosphere rain amounts are going to be huge too. Since it is maintaining at least 960 mb if not 950 mb the storm surge threat is still just as serious too once we hit high tide again. The waves might not be as bad in the area of highest surges though which could help a bit. Member Since: September 9, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1034

1522. leftlink 1:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting Methurricanes: Lowell area here. Methurricanes, I am also in Lowell area, just north in Dracut. What about you? PM me if you don't want to post it on here. Member Since: December 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

1523. LAnovice 1:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting FloodingDownInTexas: It appears that the storm is west of atlantic city moving toward estell manor, mays landing and buena vista, it looks like it's passed the atlantic city area. Atlantic City NJ??? Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 356

1524. rv1pop 1:24 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting TStormSC: I guess my point is that a C130 can be maintained at a number of locations and crews could be positioned at more centralized location for this particular storm. I saw the Fox news clip talking about budget cuts. No sense giving someone ammunition for clipping their wings. The crews will disagree on that. I heard "Nobody but my crew does anything on my airplane! My life depends on it. Our mission depends on it. Hundreds of lives depend on us. They know my plane. I trust them." and that was AWACS. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

1525. druseljic 1:29 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Perhaps it was Atlantic, NC... Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 649

1526. RJT185 1:37 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting Skyepony: The Battery, NY is having their last high tide before their high tide with storm surge max. They can expect about 2 ft more than they are having now with the next high tide. At what tide height are the flood walls compromised? Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 251

1527. scubanaked 2:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Consciously I hope Irene spontaneously dissolves, so that no human lives or properties are harmed, but, reading words like "beautiful" and "looking better" for the last three days; I am drawn to a conclusion I, may, have a subconscious feeling that I would like to see Irene beat NYC just to squash the arrogant "Cried wolf", "We can handle it" mentality and to punish the "We weren't warned" and the "It's Obama's fault" (or whatever president) crap. So... Poll. (Sub-consciously only. Not our realistic sober human feelings.) Am I the only one? 1. Irene over NYC 2. NYC over Irene Sorry , I fully understand if you ban me. : ( Member Since: August 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

1528. LAlurker 2:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting weatherjr: Apart from rain I do not expect major problems for NY city. Ok, think about the real possibilities of the subway flooding. Are there still gravel ballasted roofs on some of the high-rise buildings? If so, expect a lot of broken windows around town. The wind tunnel effects around those tall buildings will be extreme. Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1529. Jefiner 2:21 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
FWIW, you all did have an aftershock earthquake, supposedly 2.8 per Fox News. Looking for a link . . . Member Since: August 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

1530. rv1pop 2:26 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
Quoting hurricanerunaway: The ones not "here" are those who only want to throw their opinion on where a storm will go or it hasn't gone where they said it would (fish). And...the ones who pick fights. Maybe they have a conscious today. Rest assured, that "us" southerners from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida who have been through the misery that these storms cause are here...listening, offering support, and praying. I know I am so far behind in reading that this has probably gone out of context. However, Cosmic said exactly the same thing, speaking "yankee", as you did speaking southern. In the last 300 comments I have seen some of you who I highly respect and I have not seen you on during Irene until tonight. So, pardon us yankee talkers, and please forgive us. I won't mess with Texas no moooo. Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191

1531. caneswatch 2:36 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

1532. AllStar17 2:43 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

1533. Maryland1 3:16 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
We're a long way from the coast. About 120 miles. And we are having a nice Isabel hurricane up here. Just not as much wind, yet. But, plenty of rain, since 4. My family in Worchester County is having a very bad storm tonight. I think the beaches are taking a terrible surge. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

1534. Maryland1 3:30 AM GMT on August 28, 2011
...ST. MARYS COUNTY... RIDGE 8.96 1000 PM 8/27 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 W CALIFORNIA 8.34 953 PM 8/27 LARGE TREES DOWN 2 ENE PATUXENT RIVER 5.83 752 PM 8/27 AWOS LEONARDTOWN 4.44 649 PM 8/27 MESONET _________________________________________________ ____ nine inches of rain is no small number and 5 hours yet to go. Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 122

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