Irene continues to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:46 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

Share this Blog
25
+

Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.


Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.


Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory.  Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2102 - 2052

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Quoting atmosweather:


Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txarchitect:


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....

The camera panned out into the waves and followed a bit of debris in addition to what you're describing. In addition to the pier bits, there seemed to be the hull of a white fiberglass boat. I thought it was part of a surfboard at first, then remembered the scale.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txarchitect:


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....
yeah but higher sea is announced so i really wonder how long it can withstand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for that link to Nag's head... That's way out in front of the center...

Plus, I think I've heard that storm surge isn't as dangerous when a storm is perpendicular to the shore. I'll be interested to see how much the water comes up there... it already appears to be splashing over the end of the pier!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2098. scott39
I dont think some understand the magnitude of the extreme damage, that Irene is capable and more than likely will cause.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2097. vince1
Quoting njdevil:


Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.

HAARP? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm, wave height 28 feet at this buoy:

41036

And I think it's now west of the center... East side of Irene may still be no slouch.

OK, I'm not sleeping yet either... Just gotta see it come on shore...

I remember watching Katrina come on shore until the Slidell radar blew away as the eye wall hit it...

The last picture recorded was of Katrina's eyewall. I obviously don't expect that this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A platform part was briefly visible in the closeup... the rounded end part of the pier is gone, right?


Look at the view when it zooms on the very end of the pier. Isn't what appears to be broken pieces really just the shadow of the railing being thrown down onto the waves by the high lights above the pier?

I admit I got quite excited when I first saw what I thought was the pier breaking up JUST AS I CLICKED ON THE SITE (esp since I've been web surfing for hours) but I think it is just the shadows....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2094. njdevil
The SW is just becoming totally naked. Not even cloud cover.

That's got to take a toll. Well, whatever it is, keep doing it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaCat5:

Would have to agree with 75 here. Not extremely powerful. Hurricane force winds in a small quadrant NE of eye. It will be weak and moving thru quick thru NE.


Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
2091. scott39
The real power of this storm is away from the center...to the NE and E. This is not looking good at all for the NE states.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nags Head Webcam.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta watch the reaction on this band moving in now, it's a doosie, then I am out.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
Which now means we have our first ever Category 1 hurricane with a pressure of 952 mb. Quite remarkable.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Woohoo! down to 90mph keep dying Irene!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00
WTNT34 KNHC 270658
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND
CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
290 MILES...465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN FORT
MACON NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...120
KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
NEW YORK...AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN
TYRRELL COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Think you are being fooled by camera shifts. When they rebuilt that thing they must have meant for it to take a licking. Peers like that usually wash out from underneath. Must have sunk those uprights to China.
A platform part was briefly visible in the closeup... the rounded end part of the pier is gone, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


That just isn't true...the storm is still extremely powerful and will spread its impacts all the way up the eastern seaboard including in inland areas.

Would have to agree with 75 here. Not extremely powerful. Hurricane force winds in a small quadrant NE of eye. It will be weak and moving thru quick thru NE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I thought the pier was breaking up too...but I think the shadow of the pier is thrown onto the oncoming waves in one of the rotating views...and it makes it seem as if pieces have been broken off and are being pushed back into the pier - just an optical illusion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sadly, I don't think any of the weather stations in Morehead city are reporting live... They all show winds out of the North, when clearly, they're out of the east and about to get interesting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, the entire SW quarter is just a dry slot. This is reflected on radar too. Amazing it can stay so strong when it's being eaten alive by dry air and shear!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
pier parts are breaking up
Think you are being fooled by camera shifts. When they rebuilt that thing they must have meant for it to take a licking. Peers like that usually wash out from underneath. Must have sunk those uprights to China.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2078. nymore
This OZ is hilarious no planning no brains and for protection shin pads I could laugh all night at this guy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm thinking Topsail Pier's gonna make it... The storms basically even with it now and it's on the week side. I would expect the waves to start dying down over there in the next few hours.

I gotta crash... Good luck to all.

Please don't get upset if Irene doesn't pound you as hard as we all expected!

It reminds me of my old joke about the Hurricane Floyd virus... It temporarily moves all of the data on 1/2 of the hard drive then destroys the data on the other half... The half that survives complains about the inconvenience!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Big time band moving in soon. Could be cane force gusts here.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
2075. scott39
There are some peak winds to the NE of the center gusting at 125mph at 2500 ft in the air. This is what the latest dropzone from the planes readings were....per TWC. Do not focus on just the center. Irenes winds will not weaken quickly to the N and E. This is a stronger TC to the NE of the center....than the center is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmosweather:


Its more like a circular dry spot in the center of the storm. There hasn't been a proper eyewall for about 9-12 hours, just slightly stronger convection around 30-50 miles from the center from time to time.



Yeah definitely a strange hurricane, I'm drawn to it for its weirdness, just as much as I'm drawn to the awesome structure of well organized hurricanes, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
Waves are battering the pier.
Impressive swells and it's still 3 hrs to high tide.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting njdevil:
How long can that dry side of the storm hold? Or does it just sorta recondense itself with a smaller "wet" field?


There is about 15-20 kts of southwesterly shear that is helping to pound her western side with dry air flowing off the southeast U.S. She hasn't really weakened all that much at all despite all of her inner structural changes and the less than ideal environment. Because she is so large and has so much energy spread out over a huge distance she is more capable of maintaining her strength for longer in worse conditions, or at least weakening at a slower pace than the average storm would.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
how long can the pier withstand
pier parts are breaking up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
how long can the pier withstand


It went down in Fran in '96.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
how long can the pier withstand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope u guys pull through this storm ok along the eastern seaboard stay safe all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!
Where is he now?

That would of been Hurricane Alex.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!


Dolly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2065. njdevil
How long can that dry side of the storm hold? Or does it just sorta recondense itself with a smaller "wet" field?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTop5000:
people are freaking over on GLP about oz...

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 612707/pg45#26638220


why would anyone read any of this jibberish?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
crazymother.tv

Whoa, I thought you were kidding. That is the actual URL. I watched Oz during I forget which storm last year, went just south of brownsville. Always entertaining!
Where is he now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Topsail Island NC, Webstream Cam.
Waves are battering the pier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.


Its more like a circular dry spot in the center of the storm. There hasn't been a proper eyewall for about 9-12 hours, just slightly stronger convection around 30-50 miles from the center from time to time.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
West side is completely dry ... Kinda like how Hurricane
Ivan was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna start taking some video tomorrow night.

Might do a livestream if conditions permit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
people are freaking over on GLP about oz...

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1 612707/pg45#26638220
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2057. Ryuujin
Whats got me worried is that all people focus on are the winds. The winds rarely kill. Surge and flooding kills. 1 cubic yard of water has over a thousand lbs of force. Just 1. That is how dangerous it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iahishome:
Well, best as I can tell, she's still 60 miles off of Harkers island... Even if she's going straight north at her current speed, she's got 5 more hours over water.

It's starting to look like she'll just skirt the outer banks like Levi was pointing out. That would be good if it was the beginning of a larger NE turn, but bad if it basically continues going up the coast with the center just off shore.

The forecast points now look like that's exactly what's going to open... Over Nags head, and skirt the coast all the way to the West end of Long Island, just East of NYC.

Could be an interesting 24 hours... She shouldn't weaken much more along that track. If she would just go inland now, she would probably drop off quick...

Is Irene a Fat Lady? If she is, I don't think she's ready to sing yet...


On radar Irene seems to be moving around 015 degrees, or just N of NNE, and has been doing that for about 90 minutes. If that continues up until landfall she will cross the coastline closer to Core Sound and Cedar Bar Island just a hair E of Cape Lookout, rather than Cape Hatteras or just over the edge of the farther Outer Banks islands.

Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Quoting njdevil:


Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.
yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is no temperature difference between the inside and outside of the eye, but at least it's not saturated inside the eye anymore lol.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/05:57:10Z
B. 33 deg 22 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2679 m
D. 54 kt
E. 221 deg 73 nm
F. 295 deg 61 kt
G. 212 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 16 C / 3044 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 06:10:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 212 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Ive never heard of a 952 millibar hurricane that is barely at category 2 strength. Even stranger is that there is no temperature difference, do think that suggests Irene essentially has no inner core left? The "eyewall" is only showing convection with echotops to 35000 ft, which is way too shallow for normal inner core convection of a hurricane at 952 millibars.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2053. njdevil
Quoting Levi32:
Satellite blackout is over. No wonder the recon found nothing on the west side lol.



Wow, it looks like something ate half the storm. lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2052. Levi32
I'm going to grab some sleep now. I'll be back in a while. Everyone stay safe!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695

Viewing: 2102 - 2052

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
43 °F
Overcast