Irene continues to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:46 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

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Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene continues to weaken. A 1:32 pm EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall is still gone, and the central pressure had risen to 951 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate southwesterly wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene have moved ashore over North Carolina. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 3 pm EDT, with significant wave heights of 25 feet.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Friday August 26, when Irene was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. The eyewall collapsed several hours before this image was taken, and no eye is apparent. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.


Figure 2. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 3:30 pm EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday. Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 2) and Irene's continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75 - 85 mph on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55 - 75 mph winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur. By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65 - 75 mph range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

Insurance company AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Irene in the U.S. will be $1.5 - $6 billion. They estimate losses in the Caribbean at $0.5 - $1.1 billion from Irene.


Figure 3. Storm surge heights, in feet above normal tide level, which have a 20 percent chance of being exceeded during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory. The exceedance heights depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 4. Overall chance that storm surges will be greater than 3 feet above normal tide levels during the next 3 days.  The graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the current National Hurricane Center (NHC) official hurricane advisory.  Storm surge probabilities depend on the historical accuracy of NHCs forecasts of hurricane track, and wind speed, and an estimate of storm size. Image credit: NOAA.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will take your questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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2152. Patrap
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Looks better in the last few frames.....amazing.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Cyclone Oz is right here.

Link


Protected by a barrier island? What fun is that??
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Cat 1 at this time and weakening.

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ps - it's actually quite comical, there is now colder cloud-tops on satellite than there was before that dry air intrusion. I don't get it. But I'll roll with it haha
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Quoting njdevil:


well, it's a rotating storm, it's going to pull itself together in some form. I don't think it's just going to go up the coast as a NE quadrant pulling a ghost storm. but time that could be spent maintaining strength or even powering up a little will be used to pull itself together.

but alot of people on here last night were going on about it looking tight and that it could head to 115.

now it looks like this.

of course, that's how this stupid storm is. it's played me a bunch of times before. things I thought were good, weren't good. things I thought were bad weren't bad.

so what's one more. lol.

and hey, they finally spelled Asbury Park right.


well I certainly haven't been one of those who said it could strengthen to 115MPH. I would be surprised if it was able to strengthen at all (although, the NAM seems to think it might). But I think Irene did get a bit weaker than she was ready to accept a little while ago. That was really weird. 3 nights in a row now sudden cloud loss during the satellite blackout. Makes one give a slight thought about the weather modification posts that have popped up here and there LOL. Maybe our government forgot that hurricanes are actually very important for the planet's survival. Take those last two sentences with a lot of salt, btw ;)
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2146. njdevil
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


because clouds have somewhat started to re-wrap around where the dry slot formed, and radar reflectivity has increased. What's left of the eyewall has intensified in the last 45 minutes and cooler cloud tops have formed over the center. So although it has weakened, it's certainly not as weak as it looked an hour or two ago.


well, it's a rotating storm, it's going to pull itself together in some form. I don't think it's just going to go up the coast as a NE quadrant pulling a ghost storm. but time that could be spent maintaining strength or even powering up a little will be used to pull itself together.

but alot of people on here last night were going on about it looking tight and that it could head to 115.

now it looks like this.

of course, that's how this stupid storm is. it's played me a bunch of times before. things I thought were good, weren't good. things I thought were bad weren't bad.

so what's one more. lol.

and hey, they finally spelled Asbury Park right.
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2145. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Think back to when it had 50mph winds to the N and E and the NHC was having a hard time finding a closed low. what about when it was just N of Hispanola and became a hurricane without and eye and the NE quad kept getting stronger. Then when it started heading to the Bahamas the W and S side of Irene finally started looking better. The point is that NE side aint going to die anytime soon. Its almost like the NE side can hold its own. I dont mean it doesnt need the coc, I just mean its one bad A area in Irene.


Well, that part is definitely resiliant. It's virtually all that's left right now. The core and the NE.

If you watched the radar from the point the sats went back up, it looks like when Pacman dies. lol.
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Quoting njdevil:
how is it recovering when the last shot I saw was the sheer/dry air peeling off the SE end of the storm?

of course I can't see the radar box anymore because of the "flood watch" info bar. gee, ya think. hurricane warning... flood watch. never would have guessed.


because clouds have somewhat started to re-wrap around where the dry slot formed, and radar reflectivity has increased. What's left of the eyewall has intensified in the last 45 minutes and cooler cloud tops have formed over the center. So although it has weakened, it's certainly not as weak as it looked an hour or two ago.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
looks like representation is already recovering on satellite and radar. This is so strange I've never really seen a cyclone quite like this one. I'm almost rooting for Irene to recover for fighting so hard


She's been a very odd hurricane that's for sure. She "strengthened" into a hurricane while over Puerto Rico (although I'm sure the post-season analysis will upgrade her to a 75-80 mph hurricane at landfall), and now she is maintaining an astonishingly low pressure with only Category 1 or 2 winds. I haven't seen a storm this odd since Hurricane Epsilon of 2005 that continued to maintain its strength and even intensify a little while over 22-23 degree waters in the north Atlantic...prompting 2 of the most entertaining forecast discussion wordings ever:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.
EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

-------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...
EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.
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2142. njdevil
how is it recovering when the last shot I saw was the sheer/dry air peeling off the SE end of the storm?

of course I can't see the radar box anymore because of the "flood watch" info bar. gee, ya think. hurricane warning... flood watch. never would have guessed.
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NEW BLOG
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looks like representation is already recovering on satellite and radar. This is so strange I've never really seen a cyclone quite like this one. I'm almost rooting for Irene to recover for fighting so hard.

btw storm surge is still definitely a threat to NE. It will still be worse than even the worst Nor'Easters, which have been pretty bad.
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Irene has now broken the Atlantic Basin record for the lowest central pressure in both a Category 2 (942 mb) and a Category 1 storm (952 mb).
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2138. scott39
Quoting njdevil:


some? a good deal of the storm is gone. lol. not even cloud cover. something is seriously wrong with it.

I understand the NE quad is still pretty vicious as is the the stuff already on land N of the center... but how is it going to sustain itself at this point when it's naked?

Think back to when it had 50mph winds to the N and E and the NHC was having a hard time finding a closed low. what about when it was just N of Hispanola and became a hurricane without and eye and the NE quad kept getting stronger. Then when it started heading to the Bahamas the W and S side of Irene finally started looking better. The point is that NE side aint going to die anytime soon. Its almost like the NE side can hold its own. I dont mean it doesnt need the coc, I just mean its one bad A area in Irene.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Cyclone Oz is broadcasting live from Morehead City right now. 7674u.com!

Mate, Just watching now. Get him to say hey to me next time you talk to him.
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For all of the inner core degradation and the lack of strong surface winds, Irene remains unbelievably deep and continues to hold a minimum pressure around 950 mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 270742
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 27/07:10:10Z
B. 33 deg 45 min N
076 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2678 m
D. 54 kt
E. 308 deg 21 nm
F. 053 deg 62 kt
G. 309 deg 35 nm
H. 952 mb
I. 14 C / 3050 m
J. 16 C / 3050 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 3109A IRENE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 06:17:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 07:31:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 308 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Hey to CycloneOZ, I'm watching from Sydney Australia.
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This broadcast is hilarious.
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Quoting scott39:
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.

Irene is going to pick up speed. And it *is* going to weaken fast. Look at thr forecast There is also a big flaw in your logic. She's piling up water on her right side. Irene is heading NNE, so where does that go? NNE. The surge doesn't suddenly change direction. Remember Katrina? Moved N, plowed N into land, the right side was perpendicular to the coast, so terrible storm surge. Irene is parallel to the coast, with the right side and powerful surge far to the east of center. This is not going to affect NE. Just look at NHC's own surge map.
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2130. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Yea, the center is decaying some, but the power is in the NE of this storm. This is going to the NE States. Irene is HUGE, she will not weaken fast enough to cut the NE states some slack.


some? a good deal of the storm is gone. lol. not even cloud cover. something is seriously wrong with it.

I understand the NE quad is still pretty vicious as is the the stuff already on land N of the center... but how is it going to sustain itself at this point when it's naked?

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2129. scott39
Quoting njdevil:


Are you looking at it right now? Everything from the center to the west and the south and inbetween... is gone. Even part of the center.

I mean... gone. Naked swirl.

Yea, the center is decaying some, but the power is in the NE of this storm. This is going to the NE States. Irene is HUGE, she will not weaken fast enough to cut the NE states some slack.
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Quoting hyperanthony:
Does anyone know what city Oz is in?


He's in Morehead City, NC.
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2127. njdevil
Quoting scott39:
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.


Are you looking at it right now? Everything from the center to the west and the south and inbetween... is gone. Even part of the center.

I mean... gone. Naked swirl.

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Quoting hyperanthony:
Does anyone know what city Oz is in?


I believe he said he was in or around the Morehead City area.
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2125. Beremat
Oz is in the parking lot on this map:
http://g.co/maps/h5ba
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The Cape Lookout C-MAN station is now receiving close to hurricane force winds and over hurricane force gusts.
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2123. njdevil
Quoting atmosweather:
Morehead City, Beaufort and Cape Lookout getting absolutely smashed right now...I truly hope anyone on the shoreline that did not leave stays safe from this beast.


At least they don't have to contend with the back side of the storm because there is no backside.

Really unfortunate for those people it didn't implode 6 hours earlier. Almost everything nasty is on land. The sea portion right now is sad.
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2122. scott39
Quoting TampaCat5:

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.
Im not an alarmist or an expert, but I pay attention and try to understand the compex nature of a TC. The NHC found wind gusts at 2500 feet blowing 125mph in the NE part of Irene away from the center. Im not saying those are going to be on land. The point is as Irene moves up the NE coast, she will be dumping torrential rains over land for hours upon hours, along with sustained TS force to hurricane force winds for hours upon hours. Torrential rain and strong winds for that long cause heavy damage. Irene is not going to weaken fast during this time either. Now back to that strong NE Quadrant of Irene, as she is moving NNE, she will be pushing water up in front of her piling and piling on top. Where does that go? Into the low lying cities on the NE Coast, thats where. Now I hope I wake up in the morning and Irene is headed out to sea and you were right.
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Does anyone know what city Oz is in?
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Ok, I am basically Confused (again), with out a eye or a identifiable center point of rotation, is Irene still a hurricane....OR has Irene become what we call (up here) a nor'easter...Irene sure an't no Agnes.
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what a strange few days. Irene and Nanmadol both 2 categories lower than was predicted less than 12 hrs ago.
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2118. njdevil
If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say that last HH did something to it. maybe 40% of the storm has gone "poof".
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Morehead City, Beaufort and Cape Lookout getting absolutely smashed right now...I truly hope anyone on the shoreline that did not leave stays safe from this beast.
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From a Scientific standpoint its very interesting how it's weakened and what not. Would've have been in some sad way, Valuable. To see how it wouldve played out if it had maintained strength or increased. In a future sort of study sense..

At the very least the surge potential remains deadly.. Everyone in its path remain cautious please.


@ Levi.. As a met major i visit this blog often during the season. And remain very impressed by your work. Keep it up good luck.
Back to lurking!
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Topsail Island cam looking really rough. Maybe the surge is starting to pile in?
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5 counties in E-ern NC are under tornado warnings right now. Prayers go out to anyone riding out this storm. Here is a site that lists all active and expired severe weather warnings.
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Quoting atmosweather:


No those winds are being found across the entire northern semicircle...some of them will move across the Outer Banks once the NW-ern portion of the "eyewall" makes landfall. And we will likely see reports of wind gusts around 10-20% higher than anything that the SFMR instrument is finding due to land friction and turbulence.

Thought we were talking about New England. And uh, wind gusts, what is new about that. I never suggested there wouldn't be wind gusts. ??
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I never appreciated the damage rising water could do until TS Allison stalled over my north Houston home dumping heavy rain for hours and hours. With water running well over the curbs, our french drains could not empty the rain from our backyard, and with no electricity we could not backwash the water out of the steadily rising swimming pool... we watched helplessly as the "pool" rose and flooded our entire first floor necessitating all the walls be replaced up to two feet as well as the carpet. We had time to move most of the furnishings up and out of the way. Although it was "clean" water (and surge water certainly is anything but clean) we still had huge damage and mold issues.

Parts of town less than five miles away had no flooding at all. Elsewhere, people died as the freeway "canyons" flash flooded and trapped folks in their cars.

A storm this size can do tremendous damage ... especially if it slows or stalls. And, with already heavily saturated soil, the prospects for flooding are almost as troubling as the high-tide-enhanced predicted surge issues.
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2111. njdevil
radar on the WC. that last shot. the offshore portion of the storm is a total mess.
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the Infrared GEOS pics show the erosion of the circulation best... here are two pics, the top most recent at 2:45am, the second as of 11pm last night:

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Quoting BLee2333:
DO NOT let your guard down with this storm. Even in her current condition, she's retaining the kinetic energy of a strong CAT2 hurricane.


Considering the size of the circulation? Not that impressive. The KE is spread out over a large area mostly over sea. Honesty, if I was in NE my guard would be quite a bit. This thing will blow through quick with most of that KE out at sea.
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2108. njdevil
Weather channel is in Ashbury Park, NJ. lol. Where conditions are deteriorating.

Um. One, spell it right, two, can the melodramatics, the only thing deteriorating is the freaking humidity, it's just nasty right now.
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Quoting TampaCat5:

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.


No those winds are being found across the entire northern semicircle...some of them will move across the Outer Banks once the NW-ern portion of the "eyewall" makes landfall. And we will likely see reports of wind gusts around 10-20% higher than anything that the SFMR instrument is finding due to land friction and turbulence.
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Conditions at CLKN7 as of
(3:00 am EDT)
0700 GMT on 08/27/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 58 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 66 kts

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.97 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.37 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.6 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.6 F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

violent winds on the coast now
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RECON back in for another center penetration with 949.8 mb.

071100 3343N 07634W 6973 02707 9498 +159 +073 214010 013 019 001 00
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DO NOT let your guard down with this storm. Even in her current condition, she's retaining the kinetic energy of a strong CAT2 hurricane.

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2103. dewfree


Hurricane Irene Discussion Number 27 Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2011
Share This
Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft late this afternoon and
early evening have found surface pressures of 950-951 mb and
flight-level winds ranging from 99 kt to 108 kt in the southeast
quadrant of Irene. However...SFMR surface winds have been much
lower than the Standard 90 percent reduction factor typically
yields. This disparity is likely due to the lack of significant
convection over the southern semicircle. NOAA Doppler radar data
from Wilmington and Morehead City have been indicating vigorous
convection redeveloping north and east of the ragged eye...with
Doppler velocities of 90 kt or greater at altitude above 15000
feet. Based on the radar data and the possibility that the stronger
flight-level winds could eventually work into northeast quadrant of
Irene...the initial intensity is being held at 85 kt.
Radar and recon fixes indicate Irene has made the long-forecast turn
toward the north-northeast now and is moving at 020/12 kt. Irene is
caught between a broad subtropical ridge to the east and an
approaching shortwave trough currently moving eastward over the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The hurricane is expected to continue
moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours or so as the ridge
to the east amplifies northward. Thereafter...the cyclone should
accelerate to the northeast as it gets caught up in deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of the shortwave trough. The forecast
track has only been nudged slightly eastward of the previous track
through 36 hours due to the more eastward initial position.
However...all of the models suggest that some slight mid-level
ridging will occur across southern New England and the mid-Atlantic
states during the next 12-24 hours...which should act to keep Irene
close to the coasts of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. The
track forecast lies down the middle of the NHC guidance envelope
and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.
Irene is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28c until
landfall along the North Carolina Outer Banks in 12-18 hours. This
should allow the cyclone to maintain its current intensity or only
weaken slightly. After landfall...however...land interaction...
cooler water...and gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear is expected to induce steady weakening. Although a stationary
front currently lies across southern New England...this feature is
expected to lift northward due to the very large circulation of
Irene. This should delay extratropical transition until Irene is
over Maine or southeastern Canada.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 27/0300z 32.6n 76.9w 85 kt 100 mph
12h 27/1200z 34.2n 76.4w 80 kt 90 mph
24h 28/0000z 36.7n 75.5w 75 kt 85 mph
36h 28/1200z 39.8n 74.0w 70 kt 80 mph
48h 29/0000z 43.8n 71.3w 60 kt 70 mph...inland
72h 30/0000z 52.0n 62.0w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-
Consession: I conceed that the NHC won this one ,this time that is if Irene stays withen the forecast cone whitch was a spread 3 days ago from the models themselves. the least likely model had a better fix on it :Nogaps according to last seasons averages.looks like the short wave trough comming across from the nw is stronger then the last two that attacked Irene from the nw .of corse the further n Irene gets the stronger those influences will be .
hey 75 miles is not bad when you consider the forecast time was 905 miles out . hope it does make anyone angry because they were not brave enough to make such an assertion .that is 75 miles from the middle of a impact zone forecast made at 905 miles away .thanks for your time and all the good stuff i have een posted on this storm .minus a few troll comments .i think all in all it has been a very good experience. have a good one and untill the next storm .
Thanks Dr.masters for this wonderfull blog .
Dew

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Quoting atmosweather:


Do not let the current winds fool you. Firstly, those winds that are being found between 2,000 and 4,000 feet up (over 100 kts) will be more likely to mix down to the surface once the NE quadrant moves over land and encounters friction. Secondly, the amount of storm surge and rainfall does not go away even in a weakening storm, this is still a serious event for the eastern seaboard.

Those winds are being found out at sea far from land. They will not be around if that part of the storm ever makes landfall. The storm surge will be left behind, there is little threat of storm surge for NE. Just look at NHC's own maps.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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