Irene's eyewall collapses; further intensification unlikely

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2011

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Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening. A 9:21 am EDT center fix by an Air Force Reserve aircraft found that Irene's eyewall had collapsed, and the central pressure had risen to 946 mb from a low of 942 mb this morning. The highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 125 mph, which would normally support classifying Irene as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. However, these winds were not mixing down to the surface in the way we typically see with hurricanes, and the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were just 90 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene is a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Satellite imagery shows a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This is due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear is disrupting Irene's circulation and has cut off upper-level outflow along the south side of the hurricane. No eye is visible in satellite loops, but the storm's size is certainly impressive. Long range radar out of Wlimington, North Carolina, shows that the outermost spiral bands from Irene are now beginning to come ashore along the South Carolina/North Carolina border. Winds at buoy 41004 100 miles offshore from Charleston, SC increased to 36 mph as of 10 am, with significant wave heights of 18 feet.


Figure 1. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 9:30 am EDT Friday August 26, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had about 90% of the storm's hurricane-force winds (yellow and warmer colors, bounded by the heavy black line between the "50" and "60" knot thin black lines.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Forecast and storm surge potential for Irene
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. A surge rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.

Wind damage
I don't think Irene is going to do a lot of wind damage to the mid-Atlantic states, since the eye of the storm will be just offshore, and the I-95 corridor from Virginia to New Jersey will be on the weak (left) side of the hurricane. The current wind distribution of Irene (Figure 1) shows almost all of the hurricane's winds are on the right side of the storm, and by the time the storm reaches Virginia, there will be likely be no hurricane-force winds on the left side of Irene. Sustained winds should stay below 74 mph (hurricane force), and wind damage will be similar to that wrought be some of the strongest Nor'easters of the past 20 years, from Virginia northwards to New York City. Since Irene will be steadily weakening as it approaches its second landfall on Long Island, I give a 50% chance that no mainland U.S. surface station in New England will record sustained hurricane-force winds. I do think it likely that one or more of the offshore islands--Block Island, Nantucket, and Marthas Vinyard--will get Category 1 hurricane winds. Though the wind damage to buildings will be similar to what the Northeast has seen during some of the more severe nor'easters of the past 20 years, tree damage will be much worse. The trees are in full leaf during hurricane season, and catch the wind much more readily than during the winter. Tree damage will very heavy, and we can expect trees in regions with saturated soils will fall over in high winds onto power lines. Irene is likely to cause one of the top-five most widespread power outages in American history from a storm. The record power outage from a Northeast storm was probably the ten million people that lost power during the great Blizzard of 1993. I don't think Irene's power outages will be quite that extensive, but several million people will likely lose power.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In addition to storm surge, flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are the main threats. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 8" to a 100-mile-wide swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. New Jersey has had its 6th wettest August on record, with most of that rain falling in the past two weeks. Expect major river flooding throughout New Jersey the Delmarva Peninsula, and regions near New York City, as Irene's rains run off the saturated soils directly into the rivers. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. I don't think flooding from heavy rains will be a huge concern in North Carolina, which is under moderate to severe drought. Irene's rains are likely to do some good in Southeast Virginia, where a fire triggered by lightning from a thunderstorm on August 4 sparked a fire in the Dismal Swamp that is burning out of control. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Wednesday August 31, as issued by NOAA/HPC.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT
Wunderground meteorologists will be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Friday) at 4:30pm EDT. Shaun Tanner , Tim Roche, Angela Fritz, and Rob Carver will there, and I will be available if my schedule permits. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and has sent out their relief trailer and crew to North Carolina. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Irene's Wrath ! (MikeTheiss)
A shot of the Palm Trees at Nassau, Bahamas being thrashed by high winds during Irene's closest approach !
Hurricane Irene's Wrath !
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas (ktbahamas)
Utility pole with street light snapped in half by Irene's winds on a busy street in New Providence.
Aftremath of Hurricane Irene in Nassau, Bahamas
Irene Response (presslord)
Portlight deploying to North Carolina
Irene Response

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629. NJ2S
Quoting TBird78:
The news whores in NYC are finally getting wind that there's a hurricane coming and now that's all you hear.

So to them: thanks for the pre-landfall coverage of Ike, Katrina, Allison, Andrew and any of the other GOM and Florida storms.


i do agree the media can really be out there..esp for ratings.....BUT living in the Northeast I think we must take extra percaution because we r not used to these situations...I also remember following katrina from florida to NOLA b4 this blog only using TV....so to say there was no coverage is a bit exaggerated....nonetheless i agree the media needs to stick with acurate and up to date information not hyping up something for rating.
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NYC Evac zones map
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Quoting hswiseman:


I am only commenting on the water vapor imagery. If you looked at the upper air chart, you would say intensification is possible as the storm moves into an area of improving diffluence, while traversing some slightly warmer water. The observations tell a completely different story. I guess that's why they continue to fly airplanes into these things.


I did the same this morning. That WV loop and the Shortwave loop were showing the dry air just choking her off on her south and west sides. There's no question that storm is certainly unique in more ways than 1. I would think she would have to have her core rebuilt fairly solidly for her to take advantage of the TCHP efficiently. She doesn't have the time do that I think, but she may try.
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Quoting reedzone:
My friend in Mastic Beach, NY has told me they have issued Voluntary Evacuations for Long Islands south shore.
Should be mandatory, though I'm not quite sure what difference that would make.
They should at least clear the hospitals, nursing homes, etc.
I'm also from the South Shore originally.
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The Boating Spot Tropical Update page is showing sustained winds of 43 knots and gusts up to 52 knots with the pressure falling at the EDISTO Buoy 40 NM SE of Charleston SC.

1 - Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON, SC
August 26, 2011 12:50 pm EDT
Location: 32.501N 79.099W or 0 nautical miles N of search location of 32.501N 79.099W.
Wind Direction: NNE (20°)
Wind Speed: 43 knots
Wind Gust: 52 knots
Significant Wave Height: 22 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 17 sec
Average Period: 8.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.54 in (1000.3 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.09 in (-3.1 mb)
Air Temperature: 77°F (24.8°C)
Dew Point: 73°F (22.8°C)
Water Temperature: 83°F (28.5°C)






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Quoting P451:


It's no longer a threat to:

The Lesser Antilles
The Cayman Islands
South Florida
NOLA
The deforested mountains of Haiti


When this occurs this place goes dead. Those folks aren't weather fanatics they are doom wishers for their location only.

Once the threat ceases for their location or the other (for whatever reason they have become) favored locations to scream (OH NO! Not ____! That would be terrible!) the place dies.


Whilst that is certainly the case for many of the said people, it is still a gross generalization and certainly not indicative of all. There are many people from those places listed who do not fall into this generalization and continue to follow the situation with great concern for all those in Irene's path.

They are also the ones who just aren't necessarily, being condescending and telling you what to do :-)
Member Since: August 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 90
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
But right now Irene is intensifying
I think she is maintaining strength right now maybe slight intensification later today
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
A few rain bands have come thru Wilmington but not much so far. Interested to see how high the surge at wrightsville is... I've heard 2-4 and 8-10 so idk what to believe. Stocked up and ready to go though, just waiting at this point.


Wrightsville and Topsail Beach areas are East and Southeast facing beaches, even down all the way to Cape Fear, so I would count more on the 8-10 ft. surge report if it keeps current course. If we get any more west wobbles before landfall this could go even higher!!
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Quoting NJ2S:
I have a flight out of JFK on monday....how long after the storm does anyone think JFK will be back online seriously? could it be flooded and damaged so bad it wont reopen?? should i try and change to newark or laguardia?


Depending on how the hurricanes comes into that area, it is possible that the airport may not be open or not open to commercial traffic.

Even if it is open, who knows how many people they may have to move that got stuck when the airport was closed?

Don't think changing to either of those two are going to matter, same conditions will apply. Isn't it only about 45 miles from Newark to JFK?
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Irene having more dry air problems it seems...
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Quoting NJ2S:
I have a flight out of JFK on monday....how long after the storm does anyone think JFK will be back online seriously? could it be flooded and damaged so bad it wont reopen?? should i try and change to newark or laguardia?


It might not be a bad idea if you can to get out before it hits.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Yeah I know. About a billion years ago I worked at Kiawah and live in West Ashley... Westlyashley as people there like to say...:)


lol...hubs and son got kicked off Daniel Island before noon...it was rough then...in a lull now...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
616. huber
Looking at the last few frames of the Visable Radar Loop on the NHC website it looks as if Irene is continuing on more of a NNW course than making the turn. Looks to miss west of the next forecast point?
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Quoting DerOrkanWachter:
I don't think rapid intensification will happen. I would be surprised if intensification will happen the dry air and sheer seems to have made a big enough impact on the storm where it has had irreversible effects on her structure and strength. She is just going to be attempting to maintain and preserve her strength as she travels over the Gulf Stream waters.
But right now Irene is intensifying
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Irene is still moving due north. When's this NNE turn supposed to happen? It's running out of time It's significantly west of the forecast track.. This could be way worse for NC but better for northeast because more weakening will occur?

Also, the eye appears to be reforming? Looks like a pinhole eye within a large eye!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


looks like they are picking up...Edisto is about 55 miles south of charleston down the coast...


Yeah I know. About a billion years ago I worked at Kiawah and live in West Ashley... Westlyashley as people there like to say...:)
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


lmao. Wait, you're serious? Are you clamoring for radar passes of new orleans and scans from non-active areas of the tropics?

ummm patrap has been posting graphics of what is headed toward me...all week...and patrap is part of Portlight...with Presslord...they deployed LAST NIGHT to NC with stuff to help clean up...u are such a troll
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting NCSaint:
Anyone else notice the slight move to the West between the 11am and 2pm advisories?


I've posted that a couple of time but no response. It will change the landfall location also. I am thinking Topsail Beach, Jacksonville area now.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
"Hindsight is much better than foresight. You can use the same argument about the people who died from the evacuation of parts of Houston in advance of Rita. In hindsight, Houston didn't need to be evacuated, yet people died from the evacuation.

I'm not being critical of those who make the evacuation/no evacuation call. I'm just saying the call has to be made with the best available information, not "pretending" a storm will be something it is not likely to be."

Houston did not have its act together as far as contr-flow. Louisiana had problems with it during Gustave evac despite many practice runs. People weren't allowed to get out of the flow, for example, for personal needs. At times, the human factor is not considered though you are moving masses of humanity.
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Quoting DerOrkanWachter:
I don't think rapid intensification will happen. I would be surprised if intensification will happen the dry air and sheer seems to have made a big enough impact on the storm where it has had irreversible effects on her structure and strength. She is just going to be attempting to maintain and preserve her strength as she travels over the Gulf Stream waters.
I agree rapid intensification is not going to happen but i can see her get up to 110 mph before she makes landfall
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Has anyone else noticed that Irene is not going to make the next NHC forecast point? Slightly west, unless a significant wobble to the east occurs.
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Quoting NJ2S:
I have a flight out of JFK on monday....how long after the storm does anyone think JFK will be back online seriously? could it be flooded and damaged so bad it wont reopen?? should i try and change to newark or laguardia?


I'm doubting very much that you'll be able to get into or out of any of the airports there on Monday..... If they do open it will be a long process to get things moving again especially if they are shutting down for the storm...
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Quoting nash28:
Very slight wobble to the NNW. Irene will be a hair left of the next forecast point. Nothing that's gonna alter the landfall.


I still think Wilmington is a good possibility...
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Update
*All graphics can be magnified by clicking on them (they can also be further magnified in the new window by clicking on the graphic)






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I don't think rapid intensification will happen. I would be surprised if intensification will happen the dry air and sheer seems to have made a big enough impact on the storm where it has had irreversible effects on her structure and strength. She is just going to be attempting to maintain and preserve her strength as she travels over the Gulf Stream waters.
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


lmao. Wait, you're serious? Are you clamoring for radar passes of new orleans and scans from non-active areas of the tropics?

Didn't your mama teach you "if you don't have anything nice to say then don't say it at all."
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Anyone else notice the slight move to the West between the 11am and 2pm advisories?
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601. NJ2S
I have a flight out of JFK on monday....how long after the storm does anyone think JFK will be back online seriously? could it be flooded and damaged so bad it wont reopen?? should i try and change to newark or laguardia?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


when people downplay...some of us who have the experience comment...my post talked about the raw sewage that can be in the streets and yards...has your local news told you this is a possibity? i post things like, turn your fridge and freezer to coldest setting and cover with blankets when you loose power as it will insulate it...did your locals tell you that? it isnt about updates...those are done every 3 hours...11, 2, 5, & 8...that is it...many of us on here have enuf experience with these storms that we know the tricks to make life easier that are not in the hurricane guides...the media wont tell you about them...etc...you have to weed thru and pick the ones you WANT to listen to ignore what you dont


Hi Tigger -- I think thats what they want to hear, not all the bickering about who was right, and who is being over the top, etc.

Keep right on posting that stuff, because remember the ones who are being critical are not your audience, its the hundreds of others who come here to get information they may not get otherwise.
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Link

This may get run right over but...

I flew in Irene -Last Night- in a simulation in REAL-TIME using FSX flying the NOAA CatBird with additional software from -HiFi- Called "Active Sky -X-" and "X Graphics".

I would suggest everyone to -try- it...really puts what these guys do for us in perspective.

best I can describe it, it wasn't a walk in the park.
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I can't even count how many names and insults were thrown at me for forecasting that Irene would turn north as forecast before reaching Florida. Ahh yes.... remember the days of the Florida westcasters?

But since the turn happened none of those people have so much as made one post, and I've only had one problem, luckily the member is now banned for making very offensive remarks.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Quoting ILwthrfan:


How so?

Though factors are agianst right now, it still does have that chance to bump itself up. Both Levi and Reed pointed this out with the Gulf Stream being able to give it a extra boost...possibly. It also has been going through Dinurnal Minumum, so tonight will be her last chance to do anything that is for certain. Weather it doesn it or not remains to be seen.


I am only commenting on the water vapor imagery. If you looked at the upper air chart, you would say intensification is possible as the storm moves into an area of improving diffluence, while traversing some slightly warmer water. The observations tell a completely different story. I guess that's why they continue to fly airplanes into these things.
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NYC's Mayor Bloomberg has ordered mandatory evacuations of all low-lying areas. Link to NY Post - it's in their Breaking News ticker: Link
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THIS FROM 2:00 but didn't see it posted I know its been old for this site

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE WEAKENS A LITTLE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND
SOUND...BLOCK ISLAND...BOSTON...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. A
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT FOLLY ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 55 MPH...89 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURE BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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offshore, 20 miles S of Edisto Island. These data are a little over an hour old.

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
about 20 minutes old. Buoy is about 40 miles ESE of Charleston.



looks like they are picking up...Edisto is about 55 miles south of charleston down the coast...
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Hurricane Irene is an enormous cyclone ready to hit the southeastern US coastline and then the Northeast US coastline. Convection is on the upswing, especially the NW quadrant. Outflow is substantial throughout her circulation, exception remains on the southwest and south side of the cyclone. Still some time before she makes landfall, perhaps 12 more hours of potential intensification. I could see an 8 hour window where even RI could happen for a time, depends upon her getting the dry air out of her circulation. This location for tropical cyclones seems to be a major issue in terms of drawing in continental dry air which helps weaken category four hurricanes as the enter this region and then a few hours later they feel the presence of the Gulf Stream they intensify up until landfall. Something to watch for tonight. Tomorrow morning's DMAX is something to watch out for in terms of potential intensification.
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Very slight wobble to the NNW. Irene will be a hair left of the next forecast point. Nothing that's gonna alter the landfall.
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Mandatory Evacs for low lying areas of NY. Glad they're taking it seriously.
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Queen Anne's County. MD just issued a mandatory evacuation from 301/50 split to the Bay Bridge (except for residence of Queenstown)! Check your news in case I've misquoted the starting point!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


tell that to the people that almost drowned even in a hurricane shelter during hugo in Awendaw...and the shelter was higher elevation than the homes those people lived in...had they not left their homes, they would have died...and had the GOVT not called for an evacuation due to a possible catastrophic event...then not warning people to evacuate would have been the fault of those who should have given the warnings
Hindsight is much better than foresight. You can use the same argument about the people who died from the evacuation of parts of Houston in advance of Rita. In hindsight, Houston didn't need to be evacuated, yet people died from the evacuation.

I'm not being critical of those who make the evacuation/no evacuation call. I'm just saying the call has to be made with the best available information, not "pretending" a storm will be something it is not likely to be.
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Its sad that with so much going on, people still find time to trash others. When the Southern group of states were posting, many on here were bashing them. Now that they aren't, they are still bashing them.

I think that maybe there is a group of people on the blog who look for things to complain about. I've been around for a while, care about what's going on, and manage not to criticize others.

Spend the day looking for people who have questions, answer them, give support to those who are frightened. And keep in the back of your head that although you feel like you are talking to a small group of people, thousands read this blog during the storms.
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Quoting spud358:
While so many of you are taking up blog space debating the media's hype of the storm some of us are directly in the path and trying to monitor the latest developments.   Frankly, we don't need you to tell us whether it's over hyped or not right now, we need you to save the politics for after landfall.
Point well taken. However if you are depending on following blog chatter to make serious decisions you are being foolish. You would be much better off prepping and listening to your local authorities. Much as we like to mistrust government this is one instance where it is doing what it should.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
585. Gorty
I AM GOING TO IGNORE ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE WHO SAYS THIS WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WISE FOR NEW ENGLAND. YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE HUGE TS AND HURRICANE WIND FIELDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH A SATURATED GROUND EQUALS TO MANY TREES BEING DOWN IN THE NORTH EAST AND NEW ENGLAND.

THIS STORM SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. ANYWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND IS THREATENED WITH LONG TERM POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

ANY LOCATION ON THE COASTLINE THERE ARE ADDED THREATS OF DANGEROUS SURGE, WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting 7544:
wheres the trofs when u need them
I'm in Columbus, Ohio...We trying, We trying to whip one up :)
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:


lmao. Wait, you're serious? Are you clamoring for radar passes of new orleans and scans from non-active areas of the tropics?

Portlight is deploying in NC
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Quoting spud358:
While so many of you are taking up blog space debating the media's hype of the storm some of us are directly in the path and trying to monitor the latest developments.   Frankly, we don't need you to tell us whether it's over hyped or not right now, we need you to save the politics for after landfall.


Good point. You might also want to put a lot of people who argue over any little point on ignore. I have 80 people on ignore now and the blog goes a lot more smoothly.
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Quoting reedzone:
My friend in Mastic Beach, NY has told me they have issued Voluntary Evacuations for Long Islands south shore.



Yeah my sister was telling me about possible south shore evacuations. Mastic Beach huh? I'm originally from Patchouge. Hope all goes well on Long Island.
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Due to the dry stable air in the mid levels one can see the waves in the atmosphere emanating from Irene.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/display Sat.php?region=ALB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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