No Wilma tonight

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 AM GMT on October 17, 2005

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Tropical Depression 24 remains unimpressive tonight; satellite imagery continues to slow a large and poorly organized system that is not yet a tropical storm. The wind shear above the storm is still very low--less than five knots--but the upper-level anticyclone that was on top has become less well defined, and dry air continues to intrude into the northwest side of the storm. The last hurricane hunter mission left the storm at 4:30 pm EDT today, so the exact strength of the storm is not known at this point. There is not another mission scheduled until 2 pm EDT Monday. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon.

The forecast guidance still predicts that this will be Tropical Storm Wilma on Monday, and Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. This storm reminds me of Rita, which spent about three days trying to organize in the Bahamas before finally solidifying its inner core and rapidly intensifying. This storm may behave similarly, and intensificatiion into a major hurricane by late in the week is a possibility that several of the computer models are calling for.


Figure 1. Historical tracks of tropical depressions that have formed in the western Caribbean in October.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next three days, and some erratic motion is possible. However, a mostly west or west-northwest should result in a landfall on the Yucatan or Belize late in the week. A weak trough that was expected to deflect the storm to the north before this happened is now forecast to be too weak to significantly affect it. However, second a low pressure system currrently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east this week and push a trough far enough south to pull the storm to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. An eventual landfall on the west coast of Florida 7 - 8 days from now is expected. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean, as we can see from the historical track map shown in Figure 1. It still looks unlikely that this storm will get "stuck" in the Caribbean and drift southwest towards Honduras like Category 5 Hurricane Mitch did in October 1998. It also appears unlikely that Gulf Coast residents of Louisiana and Texas will receive a direct hit from this storm, although it is difficult to accurately forecast what might happen beyond five days when we are so poor at just three day forecasts.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update in the morning about 9:30 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

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168. mishnook
11:47 PM GMT on October 18, 2005
Hmmm, better pen up the Gloucester sword boats. I may be a total hack at this, but it does look like the NOGAPS has Wilma merging with a Northeastern low just off the New England coast. See, Link
Isn't that what happened in the '91 perfect storm?
167. FtLauderdalepunk
7:19 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
MY 1ST BROAD PREDICTION

I WOULD SAY ANYWHERE FROM JUST NORTH OF TAMPA TO KEY WEST WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS STORM
166. groundedtruccr
2:32 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
I REALLY hope I don't have to shutter up my house(shutters curtisy?sp of Charley. Two hurricanes in two years is enough. Could someone go into the gulf with a big fan and just get it out of here. Tampa shouldn't worry, theres a magnet in Punta Gorda that attracts them, so it seems.
165. MandyFSU
2:26 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
I thought maybe so, cowboy. :-)

New post!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
164. northflacowboy
2:19 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
only a few miles from me mandy,
163. snowboy
2:07 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
The IR and WV satellite images indicate massive convection occurring. As Wilma is currently headed SOUTH and has yet to "find herself", it doesn't seem to make much sense to prognosticate about possible tracks across Florida 7 or more days from now given all the uncertainties. She may "do a Mitch" and just drift into Central America, or the Yucatan, or whatever. She certainly bears continued watching, but until the models have a better handle on how she'll develop/track any talk of possible tracks across Florida seems a tad premature.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
162. napleswx
2:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Joe B, is calling for a landfall in the panhandle. Not sure I believe that, I'm thinking a little more south. But I am not expert, just a guess. Bastardi
161. weatherdude65
2:05 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
GFS model run Link This should probably be taken with a grain of salt and the runs yesterday that I saw had it moving over the yucatan penn
160. subtropic
2:00 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
OGal.... SAY IT!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
159. MandyFSU
1:55 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
OGal- what's the feeling?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
158. OGal
1:53 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Gut feeling here!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
157. MandyFSU
1:49 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Tallahassee- originally from Lake City, though.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
156. ProgressivePulse
1:49 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Looking at the past history of storms that Dr. Masters has posted in his blog, it appears that a storm making it that far up the coast to the panhandle is highly unlikely. Not unlikely for this year for sure, one to watch.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
155. northflacowboy
1:48 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
where are you mandy?
154. northflacowboy
1:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
i'm in the big bend area of fla just north a few miles of where suwannee river goes into gulf
153. MandyFSU
1:46 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Thanks weatherboyd- guess we're pretty certain that TX and LA are out of the woods?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
152. weatherboyfsu
1:44 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
ANYONE FROM PENSACOLA EASTWARD NEEDS TO WATCH THIS STORM.....theres an outside chance that wilma could get caught up in Mexico...other than that...florida looks like to have the best chance.......still to early to tell for sure.......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
151. MandyFSU
1:42 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Where are you at cowboy?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
150. ProgressivePulse
1:42 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Thanks Weatherdude65.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
149. northflacowboy
1:40 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
reckon i better button down and get ready for this one, here we go again!!
148. MandyFSU
1:39 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Sure would like a crystal ball about now. Does anyone have a "gut" feeling yet, or is it still too early? When will we have a better idea? Thursday or will it be into next weekend before we know?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
147. weatherdude65
1:38 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
mandy, I think that it all depends on just how strong the trof is when it reaches the gulf. Basically right now it is a wait and see game.
146. MandyFSU
1:36 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Good, dude... watching and waiting... watching and waiting. So do we really think Tampa storm? I keep saying it- I'm deathly afraid that the NE Gulf's luck has slap worn out...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
145. weatherdude65
1:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Hello Mandy....doing well, and you?
144. MandyFSU
1:32 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Hi all! How is everyone today?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
143. Wombats
1:30 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
ok guys they are calling for a hit around the Tampa area then that means it will hit around the panhandle possible ala area since we have to factor the margin of error..
142. weatherdude65
1:30 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
good morning palmbeacher
141. palmbeacher
1:29 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Morning all
140. weatherdude65
1:23 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
progressive...katrina tracked over the glades and it really did not weaken it at all...the water was very warm there. Now, that was earlier in the season, I am sure that the water has cooled since due to Katrina and other rain since. Not sure of the east coast impact. I am on the east coast of Fl and when Charly came across we were far enough east and south that we did not get it that bad here.
139. weatherboyfsu
1:22 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Howdy...Howdy....Howdy.....those models are crazy.....Im heading to Tampa....Friday....the chase is on.....just kidding for now....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
138. ProgressivePulse
1:11 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
I have a couple questions.

1. How would a Hurricane behave tracking across the everglades (weaken, maintain, strengthen)?

2. What sort of impact would be expected for the east coast?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
137. TPaul
1:09 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
I case we should say good bye Tampa.
Member Since: May 2, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 111
136. OGal
1:08 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Happy Monday everyone, Chris I don't like that Accu Weather track. Looks like it might be another Charley and hitting Tampa Bay for sure. We got bad winds from Charley here in Winter Springs----lost our roof. (new roof) The thought of HUNKERING DOWN one more time makes me sick!!!!!!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
135. FtLauderdalepunk
1:06 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
WHAT THE HELL IS THE ACCUWEATHER ONE?????
ON THE REALISTIC SIDE OF BREAKING NEWS THE YET ANOTHER MODEL HAS CHANGED ITs TUNE DRAMATICALLY


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134. caneman
1:03 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
I just hope some dry air finds its way into the circulation and takes some of the starch out of this thing.
WHen will it stop.................?

Cane, cane, go away, come again some other day!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
133. ChrisPC24
12:47 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
132. FtLauderdalepunk
12:34 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
THIS IS THE LATEST GFS RUN 00z JUST CAME OUT
Link
131. SWLAStormFanatic
12:24 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Man, these models are all over the place!
130. FtLauderdalepunk
12:22 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
MORE MAJOR MODEL SHIFT THE GFS AVN HAD NOW SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST ALSO...SEEMS TO BE A TREND HERE THAT THE NHC WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS IN THE 11AM ADVISORY


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129. SWLAStormFanatic
12:16 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
cctx, the only dumb question is one not asked. While warm water temps are a mojor factor in the formation and maintaining of a hurricane, many other factors dictate the track. For most of the hurricane season the predominant upper level flow is from the east towards the west which allows the central and western gulf coast to be more at risk. As fall approaches the flow begins to shift more from the west to the east in the central and northern gulf. As cold fronts begin to drop down into the Great Plains their accompanying troughs of low pressure cause a strong flow from southwest to northeast to occur. That will usally direct a tropical system in the northwest Carribean towards Florida. However, this year being the freak that it has been, and the apparent formation of high pressure over the north gulf, these approaching trophs and fronts will not be able to have as much of an affect on Wilma. Right now she is in an area with little to no guidance winds. The further north she moves the more guidance she will have. It's still too early to say how strong and exactly where the high pressure will be and how far south the approaching trophs will be able to dig. This is one that we in LA/TX will have to watch more so than other October storms. That's all I'm saying is watch it. It is not cut and dry by any stretch.

I'm just an amateur with an intense love of the weather like most on this blog. I hope I have shed some light on this.
128. FtLauderdalepunk
12:12 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 162042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/20:30:20Z
B. 17 deg 42 min N
079 deg 38 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 180 deg 60 nm
F. 254 deg 024 kt
G. 182 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 23 C/ 454 m
J. 24 C/ 459 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 31 KTS SE QUAD 1822Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

127. FtLauderdalepunk
12:10 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
cctx the reason has alot to do with climatology...But for this storm the main reason is because hurricanes are steered by upper level wind patterns.. In wilmas case, she is stuck between two high pressure systems for the time being..The high over texas is expected to erode on the eastern part just enough to nudge Wilma to the WNW or NW..In time a trough will dig into the Gulf and the SW winds aloft will force wilma to the NE or Even ENE Depending on the troughs strength...For wilma to hit Texas right now you would need an unbreakable High Pressure system that wouldnt allow any bit of a northward turn... That is rare this time of the season...
126. FtLauderdalepunk
12:05 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WILMA MOVING ERRATICALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES
... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...BUT A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


125. cctxshirl
12:01 PM GMT on October 17, 2005
Okay, I'm really a weather dummy, but why is it the experts are so sure Wilma will make a turn? I live on the TX Gulf coast and the waters are still pretty warm here as are our temps. So what is to keep her from coming this way?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 341
124. FtLauderdalepunk
11:48 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
ok figured it out...In any case the GFDL has made a major shift to the east...Its interesting to note the NHC forecast was well east of the GFDLs previous runs anyways...Let will have to see all the other models to see if GFDL is "out to lunch"
123. FtLauderdalepunk
11:47 AM GMT on October 17, 2005

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122. FtLauderdalepunk
11:44 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
FOR NOW I CAN JUST LINK U THERE LOL!!!!Link
121. FtLauderdalepunk
11:43 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
[IMG]http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a153/fsufan524/at200524_model1.gif[/IMG]
120. caneman
11:41 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
Its time to due diligence on this storm.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
119. FtLauderdalepunk
11:40 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
TO BE FAIR TO THE PEOPLE THAT DONT WANT TO GOTO LEFTYS SITE I WILL BE POSTING THE GFS MODEL HERE... LOOKS LIKE SW FL IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY MEANS IF U BELIEVE IN THE GFS MODEL

Link
118. willdd1979
11:40 AM GMT on October 17, 2005
do u have a link to that model run ftlauderdale so we can see it also

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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