Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Quoting FLdewey:
The FEMA topic will be a big deal.

Unfortunately nobody wants to take personal responsibility. It's FEMA's fault no matter what.

Nice and Breezy in Melbourne today... nice change.


As hard as I am on FEMA...three points are important:

their ground troops are good, decent well intentioned people

FEMA must be invited by individual states to engage

they ain't yo' Mama

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Dare County has announced mandatory evacuations.
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Sat & Sun looks to be good for north Florida surf,the boards are on the truck, would be better the further east she goes....I'm 60 years old but wouldn't miss this for anything....Florida got real lucky this time.
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Nolehead:
i know this is a long shot, but if it was to make a westerly turn and no warnings are up for fl...im sure this wont happen, but just what if it does?? people in the carolinas and ne...better get prepared fast!!


If this were a situation where landfall is certainly going to happen somewhere and there was no chance of it going out to sea whatsoever, it would actually be preferable that this particular storm were to do just that versus going to a place that has had very little experience with such an event and the mass populus has such a laissez faire attitude concerning the situation. Building codes and prep experience are just a little different from VA to FL.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


hangin by my fingernails lol...waiting to see how close since it still has some west left in her... a little more and we are sustained winds instead of just gusts...parents are killing me with the big question are we closed tomorrow and i have no clue... heard they had an emergency meeting at 11am today after being dropped to level 4 yesterday we are back to 3 i guess...not gonna take a full hit but the erosion is gonna be bad


Where are you tiggeriffic?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


There's something distinctive about the atmosphere when a TC is nearby, especially one of this magnitude. There is a certain sound in the trees when the wind energy travels thru that you don't get normally, even with afternoon storms. You can tell Mother Nature is pissed and not too far away...


Yeah the squall line we had yesterday was much windier than a typical thunderstorm here. Tropical rains. The feel to the air is just different...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
The latest visible imagery, suggests a new eye is appearing and as the day goes by I am guessing the cloud tops will begin to fire up again in the eyewall.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
137. 7544
irenes noving nnw and the outer bannds on the radar radar all is moving wsw the so still look s like fla gets some rain today
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Quoting JonClaw:
My girlfirend lives in College Point, NY roughly 700 feet from Flushing Bay (you can see LaGuardia Airport from her block).

Should I warn her about possible flooding at her doorstep? There's a street a block away that floods from heavy rains, I'd imagine Irene will be no different, if not, worse.


Okay, so here';s the deal:

Worse case, do you remember New Orleans after Katrina? Something like that; no point in taking that chance and if you wait til the last minute in THAT place you, might as well not go...on the other hand, if you think she'd hate to feel foolish, then she can try to grow gills if the worse happens
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Quoting Floodman:


Awwwww, Mooooommmmmmm!


I SAID NO!!! {{{putting foot down}}}
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Looks like consolidation is about done, and convection is firing stronger near the core. It'll be interesting to watch Irene try to spin up today. She's big, so I would guess rapid intensification won't be all that rapid, but she has a lot of fuel and a decent structure.

Strong Cat 3 seems very likely. Might still make it to Cat 4?
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
can anyone tell me if i saw the airforce c130 recon fly over me here in sarasota around 10am this morning,anyone??
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Quoting synthvol:
The reason you only see ONE house in this picture is because Hurricane Ike obliteratedthe rest. Everyone in the path of very dangerous Irene, PLEASE be safe and take care. Heed your local officials and warnings. Ike was "only" a Category II storm, but the storm surge was likened to a Category IV. Be prepared!!


yes...and while that house, which was built by an engineer to rigid standards, remained intact...as a practical matter it was also destroyed...as the surge destroyed everything in it...
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Quoting ctweathergal:
Not real happy reading that last blog Dr. Masters!!! Does anyone out there know a spell or something to cause a large right hand turn in a hurricane path???

Guess I better start bringing in the outdoor furniture and round up the kids and animals. It has been along time since Gloria, We were due. Stay safe.


Pat Robertson prayed away hurrican Gloria from VA Beach but it hit NJ and RI instead according to him.
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Residents of New Hanover County are reminded that once sustained winds reach tropical storm force, Snow's Cutt Bridge that connects mainland New Hanover County to Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Ft. Fisher will be closed.
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Quoting TBird78:


I've been trying to tell people in the NE for days but they won't listen. And they say us Gulf Coasters are hardheaded!

I'm just waiting for the first headline : "We had no warning!"


I'm a New Yorker, people are listening, just not panicking, at least not yet. I can tell you most are doing some preparing. I have spent all morning in the office, backing servers to remote drives in case we lose servers to water damage.
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Quoting Floodman:


Tigs, you hanging in there?


hangin by my fingernails lol...waiting to see how close since it still has some west left in her... a little more and we are sustained winds instead of just gusts...parents are killing me with the big question are we closed tomorrow and i have no clue... heard they had an emergency meeting at 11am today after being dropped to level 4 yesterday we are back to 3 i guess...not gonna take a full hit but the erosion is gonna be bad
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Quoting Thoroside:
Patrap, where are you able to pull that Long Range Miami radar from on here? I'd like to have that constant in one of my browsers. Thanks.


Use the menu at the top of this page, "radar"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Elena85Vet:
I know there's a lot to digest with Irene's effects from N. Carolina into New England, but I'm surprised Dr. Masters didn't mention inland rainfall projections in addition to the storm surges. A large slow moving hurricane is bound to flood creeks and rivers whose outputs will already be restricted by the ocean surge. This has the potential to be more than a coastal event and a serious situation for those in inland low lying areas.

Thoughts out to those who've already taken a beating by Irene and to those in her path.


New Jersey comes to mind immediately. Strong storms flood areas in NJ easily.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Question for everyone in Florida.

I've always wondered, How does it feel to have such a beast of a storm just a few 100 miles away?


This is mother nature at her meanest and her most beautifulness.
Makes me love the Dr. Masters Blog regulars even more! Thanks to all that help us not freak out but instead to at least have a little knowledge.
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Quoting charlottefl:


Little breezier than normal here. About 35 miles to your south..


There's something distinctive about the atmosphere when a TC is nearby, especially one of this magnitude. There is a certain sound in the trees when the wind energy travels thru that you don't get normally, even with afternoon storms. You can tell Mother Nature is pissed and not too far away...
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Quoting MrstormX:
Just got done talking to New Yorkers, apparently...this is not a serious threat to them. I hope they at least by some bottled water....


Yeah not too many people up here are even talking about it. Some don't even know its such a real threat. Going to be interesting, thats for sure
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Quoting Nimitz:


Amen to that! Just called a friend who lives in Virgina Beach, right on the bay and told him it's time to head for the Blue Ridge

No evacuation warnings for VA Beach or Norfolk so far.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:

oh, he's got the boogie board lol...oldest son has the skim boards...just not going THIS weekend lol


Awwwww, Mooooommmmmmm!
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My girlfirend lives in College Point, NY roughly 700 feet from Flushing Bay (you can see LaGuardia Airport from her block).

Should I warn her about possible flooding at her doorstep? There's a street a block away that floods from heavy rains, I'd imagine Irene will be no different, if not, worse.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Question for everyone in Florida.

I've always wondered, How does it feel to have such a beast of a storm just a few 100 miles away?


This is mother nature at her meanest and her most beautifulness.


It is amazing the difference of 100 miles or 10 hours or just a few degrees can make...
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116. bwi
Quoting thelmores:
The latest HFIP run is the farthest west I have seen ANY model in a couple days.......
HWRF HFIP


and the GFDL also seems to be a little farther west, making it past 78W......
GFDL

At least this morning, seems a slight trend left.....


Oh great. One model takes a 945mb low straight over my house in Maryland with 62kt max wind, and the other takes it... also directly over my house, again at 945mb, but with 77 kt max winds. Terrific. That's a no power for 3 weeks scenario for DC suburbs.
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Quoting ecupirate:


Looking more and more like the eye is going to go right over Greenville... :-(






I hope not :(
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A Voluntary evacuation has been put into place in New Hanover County (Wilmington,NC) local schools will dismiss early tomorrow, and the county will be up in a state of emergency beginning at 6 am tomorrow morning. Two shelters, as of now, will be open tomorrow night - Dorothy B Johnson Elementary School and Noble Middle School.
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I know there's a lot to digest with Irene's effects from N. Carolina into New England, but I'm surprised Dr. Masters didn't mention inland rainfall projections in addition to the storm surges. A large slow moving hurricane is bound to flood creeks and rivers whose outputs will already be restricted by the ocean surge. This has the potential to be more than a coastal event and a serious situation for those in inland low lying areas.

Thoughts out to those who've already taken a beating by Irene and to those in her path.
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The reason you only see ONE house in this picture is because Hurricane Ike obliteratedthe rest. Everyone in the path of very dangerous Irene, PLEASE be safe and take care. Heed your local officials and warnings. Ike was "only" a Category II storm, but the storm surge was likened to a Category IV. Be prepared!!
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Quoting TBird78:


I've been trying to tell people in the NE for days but they won't listen. And they say us Gulf Coasters are hardheaded!

I'm just waiting for the first headline : "We had no warning!"


Followed by "Where's FEMA?"
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Patrap, where are you able to pull that Long Range Miami radar from on here? I'd like to have that constant in one of my browsers. Thanks.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Just got done talking to New Yorkers, apparently...this is not a serious threat to them. I hope they at least by some bottled water....


Fuggetaboutit!
Ain't no stinkin' storm gonna scare any of them NY'ers. They live in NY, remember? ;)
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Gov. Perdue has declared state of emergency in NC and has asked the President for a pre-landfall declaration to assist in response efforts.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


yeah...my 7 year old is the boogie board king lol, he is begging me for a surf board...glad he doesnt have one now...this is gonna be WILD for us...talking 7 ft waves or better...


Tigs, you hanging in there?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
At 4:44.

Not sure I believe this stuff, but there it is.

http://www.the-psychic-line.com/tag/2011-psychic- predictions/

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104. GoWVU
Quoting Portlight:
Our crew is heading into North Carolina with a trailer full of generators, chain saws, etc....


That is nice Portlight
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Posted MUCH later than the time above to use a space wasted on a double posting to post a missed mapping...
H.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 24August_6pmGMT and ending 25August_6pmGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 13.5mph(21.7k/h) on a heading of 327.8degrees(NNW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage over SaintCatherinesSound,Georgia ~1day8hours from 25August_6pmGMT
(SVK is Savannah)

Copy&paste mhh, 22.7n74.3w-23.5n75.1w, 23.5n75.1w-24.1n75.9w, 24.1n75.9w-25.5n76.5w, 25.5n76.5w-26.5n77.2w, jax, 25.5n76.5w-31.73n81.131w, svn into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 25August_12pmGMT)
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Quoting MrstormX:
Just got done talking to New Yorkers, apparently...this is not a serious threat to them. I hope they at least by some bottled water....
,why hudson river taste great!!!,adrondack springs i think it was called,lol
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Quoting TBird78:




I'm just waiting for the first headline : "We had no warning!"


Sad, but so true!
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100. TX2FL
Concerned about Philadelphia, which has the river that runs into the Delaware bay, that looks to have a 15 foot storm surge..and from the chart, 9-10 feet into the river??

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Our crew is heading into North Carolina with a trailer full of generators, chain saws, etc....
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Quoting hydrus:
I can tell you how it feels to watch it move away....Deep wonderful breath and a sigh of RELIEF..!


Amen to that! Just called a friend who lives in Virgina Beach, right on the bay and told him it's time to head for the Blue Ridge
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857. mistified [inre the mapping in previous blog page17comment823] "Sorry, but what does this mean? The part about headed over Mt. Pleasant SC 1 day 5hrs.! Is this a past forecast or a current one?"

A straightline projection is NOT a forecast. It is information about where the storm was heading over the most recent six hours (given the constraint of having only two data points to work with), and how long it would take to get there if its direction of travel and its travel-speed were to remain constant.
Neither a storm's direction nor its travel-speed is likely to remain steady.
But to help with visualization, instead of giving only a compass direction, I mention a landmark toward which the storm was moving during those 6hours.
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Quoting lynn27592:
Anyone heard from Grandpa lately? Seems like he lives in Atlantic Beach and looks like he needs to be headed to his daughter's in Raleigh!


I'm hoping he left for a safe place already. I heard on the radio news in Texas last night at about 10pm that Atlantic Beach was being evacuated at that time. The report also mentioned a 3 hour wait to get off by FERRY! Not sure if that was from where he lived or nearby though.

I'll bet his neighbors aren't ridiculing him for boarding up his house today!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.