Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Quoting Portlight:
Our crew is heading into North Carolina with a trailer full of generators, chain saws, etc....
Do you have a Facebook /twitter page so we can post links to you there as well?
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194. Gorty
Wow New England gusts 65-90 mph.

Not looking good for me.

Link
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Quoting rv1pop:
I hope that is a small bull. A friend at church had a bull go through a 4 rail - 1 1/2 in iron pipe fence, ten to 15 feet past and into a two ton farm truck and turned it over. Hmmm. Bad picture.


You stand there thinking "Its gonna turn, ... Its gonna turn ..."
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Quoting K8eCane:


Where in NC Press?


gonna make that exact call a little later
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1st post.... (been lurking here forever) One of Irene's rain bands is about to cross us here in PSL. Lots of thunder in this one.

I sure hope most of the NE is taking this seriously. Talked to a few up there who practically laughed at it. Hard to feel sorry for those who think they are exempt from the power of nature. For the rest of you in her path, I wish you the best.
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Quoting presslord:


I will be absolutely shocked if Charleston County closes...there's just no compelling reason for it...


no so much wind maybe but the tides...low lying areas, buses DT, etc with the added 2 ft to high tide...meeting was at 11am
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Quoting Portlight:
Our crew is heading into North Carolina with a trailer full of generators, chain saws, etc....


Where in NC Press?
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Maybe its wishful thinking but looks to me like Irene has started due north (with maybe even a slightly east wobble?)... and is on track to miss the next forecast point to the NE. I think the models have shifted as far west as they can, and will now settle on a landfall between morehead city and nags head.

not for New England, Chatam is at 69.49*W, so Irene needs to move 8 degrees east to aviod New England.
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Quoting FtMyersBuc:


Followed by "Where's FEMA?"
Quoting FtMyersBuc:


Followed by "Where's FEMA?"



I know what you mean! I live in Biloxi and most of my family lives on the jersey shore about an hour north of atlantic city....either a block from the bay or 3 blocks from the beach...I keep trying to tell them to take it seriously but they are just laughing and buying party supplies like its no big deal. It seems like nowadays you can't warn people...they have to experience it themselves before they listen..its so sad...i went through Katrina so I know all about that
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Quoting tpabarb:
Not understanding why Wilmington isn't included in the public advisory as under hurricane watch when the cone map has us in the pink. I just had an argument with my stoner neighbor who think I'm ridiculous for worrying and he asked me if I'd been in a hurricane before (answer: yes, jerk)


I agree with you!! Everyone keeps dismissing this storm for us here in Northern SC. If we are in the cone, why don't we have a serious warning????
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It's well worth watching the full video to get to the last minute and hear Mr. Guerra tell how he messed up by not heeding the Warning to evacuate.

Video taken by Guerra Family during/after Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, La.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127539
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE WILL PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ALONG
THE NC COASTAL WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND EXTREMELY HIGH SEAS
ARE LIKELY AS CONDITIONS PEAK SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO RUSH PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS AHEAD OF THE INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS TODAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN WINDS AND SEAS. MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Quoting tiggeriffic:


I am the Asst Director at a Preschool...waiting on word from Chas County for public schools as we follow their direction...high tide is 6pmish tomorrow night, we close at 6pm...that puts some of my teachers at risk of flood waters for driving home to certain areas, but we can't close unless the county calls it...


I will be absolutely shocked if Charleston County closes...there's just no compelling reason for it...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Maybe its wishful thinking but looks to me like Irene has started due north (with maybe even a slightly east wobble?)... and is on track to miss the next forecast point to the NE. I think the models have shifted as far west as they can, and will now settle on a landfall between morehead city and nags head.

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The following link is for any resident or visitor who is evacuating from the NC Outer Banks ---> http://www.governor.nc.gov/NewsItems/PressReleaseD etail.aspx?newsItemID=1985 This link proivdes shelter information for anyone who is evacuating inland from Currituck, Dare, and Hyde counties.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


Chas, SC...not takin a direct hit but our tides are 2 ft above normal high this weekend...and when you are already at sea level any storm passing by makes ya a little nervous...just waiting to see how close...yesterday it was 77W was the closest, now it is about 78W...that is about 120 miles off shore where we are...so if she grows, we close basically


I'm on the east central FL coast just north of Melbourne (currently about 275 miles from the center) and I'll be glad when it's north or me!
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Quoting JonClaw:
My girlfirend lives in College Point, NY roughly 700 feet from Flushing Bay (you can see LaGuardia Airport from her block).

Should I warn her about possible flooding at her doorstep? There's a street a block away that floods from heavy rains, I'd imagine Irene will be no different, if not, worse.
,tell her to listen to her local officals /emergency managment
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Currituck County says due to the unpredicted track of the storm, a mandatory evacuation is ordered for all tourists
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Whats with ppl though...nobody is taking this super serious N of Wilmington. We all saw how ppl flipped after the Earthquake, so imagine what it will be like when they realize the are abandoned in a vacation cottage on the beach during a hurricane. Not good.
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Quoting JonClaw:


Just sent out a text to my girlfriend along with a bunch of her friends and family that live in CP. The Surge maps flood all of her neighborhood under Cat. 2 conditions...


Bear this in mind: with a direct hit on the Bight by a CAT 1 most of lower Manhattan will flood...a CAT 2 on the Bight will flood everything past Canal. If you aren't 30 0r so feet above the water line your feet will certainly get wet; less than 20 and you may very well be swimming. Not being alarmist, just saying what I know.

As for your people in CP? Evacuation early is better than being stuck on the Parkway as she comes in
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Not understanding why Wilmington isn't included in the public advisory as under hurricane watch when the cone map has us in the pink. I just had an argument with my stoner neighbor who think I'm ridiculous for worrying and he asked me if I'd been in a hurricane before (answer: yes, jerk)
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Quoting Nimitz:


Amen to that! Just called a friend who lives in Virgina Beach, right on the bay and told him it's time to head for the Blue Ridge
I have a sister that lives near Richmond..She said she is safe from the hurricane but the earthquake really shook her up..They have not had the flooding rains that some areas up there have recieved. They have had some however, and things could change quickly with a huge storm like this..I am hoping for the best, but with the current saturated ground, higher than normal tides, and the size of the hurricane, it will be extreme.
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Quoting Zaphod:
Tigs, why do your parents not have the ability to make school decisions on their own? I feel little compulsion to send my kids if I don't think it's safe. Who cares if they miss a day or two more than other kids?

Often I see our school having early-outs to prevent burning snow-days, when they really should have just called it off. They don't really expect kids to come, and there is penalty to speak of. Usually I watch for event cancellations -- if they cancel the evening basketball games, then that probably means that school is optional too.


I am the Asst Director at a Preschool...waiting on word from Chas County for public schools as we follow their direction...high tide is 6pmish tomorrow night, we close at 6pm...that puts some of my teachers at risk of flood waters for driving home to certain areas, but we can't close unless the county calls it...
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Ocean City, MD has ordered the evacuation of all foreign summer travel workers.


Link
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127539
North Topsail Beach Mayor Daniel Tuman says they plan to ask for a voluntary evacuation at 2:00 p.m
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15Z Steering:

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Eye has became a LITTLEBIT better defined on satellite...anybody know how complete the eyewall is?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
A Category 1 Storm hitting New York City may not sound that dire, but just imagine winds of up to 95-100MPH blowing through Times Square for an hour or more. Remember a Category 1 Storm has SUSTAINED winds of 74-95MPH, with gusts of upwards of 100MPH. JFK Airport and La Guardia Airports will be completely submerged. The Battery and most of Lower Manhattan completely under water.

This May hit NYC as a Category 1, but it will likely hit New Jersey as a strong Category 2. But Irene is such a large storm, its storm surge will be more like a Category 3. Think Hurricane Ike. Ike was Category 2 when it hit Galveston, but its physical size pushed a Category 4 storm surge into Galveston.

NYC is surrounded by water on the eastern side. A East Wind will force the water in Long Island Sound, into the East River and the water cannot escape. It gets piled up and rises.

I know a lot of New Yorkers are brushing this off like it wont happen or can't happen. But this is likely going to happen just as Dr. Masters has said. So its time to get prepared.

Atlantic City, get ready for a massive storm surge as well. The boardwalk will be inundated and winds could be 110MPH or higher along the coast.

The Outer Banks will most likely be utterly devastated. This will be many times worse than Isabel in 2003.

The Bottom line is that the entire East Coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts needs to prepare for what will likely be the worst hurricane since the Great Hurricane of 1938.
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NOAA: Weather satellites are in jeopardy

It's easy enough to take for granted how much we know about the weather these days. Take Hurricane Irene: There are plenty of weather maps showing the path of that storm, which is churning through the Caribbean on its way to the East Coast of the United States. We have a pretty good idea of where Irene is heading and how strong it will be when it hits land.

All of this, of course, gives people in North Carolina and elsewhere days to stock up on food and plan an escape route -- just in case these predictions come true.

How do we know all this stuff? Because satellites are watching.

That's the point the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has been trying to make lately as it campaigns to avoid budget cuts to its program for monitoring the Earth's oceans and weather from above the atmosphere. cnn
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Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah the squall line we had yesterday was much windier than a typical thunderstorm here. Tropical rains. The feel to the air is just different...


Yes there is a constant underlying dull roar that penetrates the trees and makes a wicked sound as the wind kicks up. Amazing how much power there is even this far from the storm. This ain't no joke...the Eastern Seaboard better be ready and it might help to go back and read about previous storms and what happened with them. e.g. Bob, Gloria, Isabel, Floyd, 1938 Long Island Express...
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


That is a GREAT eye opener for all those who think they'll be fine in a house on the water during a major hurricane. RIGHT! This ain't "Nights In Rodanthe"!
Good Mornin' Sir.....You've got mail!!
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Do you know if the same thing applies to the Wrightsville Beach bridge?
I'm not sure. The Emergency Director, Warren Lee, said about the only bridge they close is Snow's Cutt, I'm sure that if we see winds gusting to hurricane force, Wrightsville Beach would at least think about not letting anyone on the island. The two big bridges, Cape Fear, and Isabel Holmes, I believe stay open. I'd check with the local government today about that.
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Port St. Lucie about to get RAINED on! Winds picking up, sky is DARK and thunder is rumbling! Good to still be at home, but I have to leave in about 45 minutes to go to work. Hope this has passed by then, but the radar does not look promising.

Folks on the east coast please get your preparations done. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
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Quoting AVL:
Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk

I'm glad teh Doc is using some strong language. NC will start seeing the outer bands soon. I know humans are more important, but there is no telling what the monetary impact will be if it does what they are thinking all the way up through maine.
that would only be a few hundred yards in most parts of New England.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127539
Seriously folks, please don't carry on personal conversations on the board. Eats up bandwith and is just more garbage to weed through looking for info. Thats why they put message tab on here.
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Quoting VieraChris:


Where are you tiggeriffic?


Chas, SC...not takin a direct hit but our tides are 2 ft above normal high this weekend...and when you are already at sea level any storm passing by makes ya a little nervous...just waiting to see how close...yesterday it was 77W was the closest, now it is about 78W...that is about 120 miles off shore where we are...so if she grows, we close basically
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Tigs, why do your parents not have the ability to make school decisions on their own? I feel little compulsion to send my kids if I don't think it's safe. Who cares if they miss a day or two more than other kids?

Often I see our school having early-outs to prevent burning snow-days, when they really should have just called it off. They don't really expect kids to come, and there is penalty to speak of. Usually I watch for event cancellations -- if they cancel the evening basketball games, then that probably means that school is optional too.
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Quoting daddyjames:



It's like standing at a fence and having a bull charge at you. Its beautiful to watch, and most likely you won't be hit, but slightly terrifying all the same.
I hope that is a small bull. A friend at church had a bull go through a 4 rail - 1 1/2 in iron pipe fence, ten to 15 feet past and into a two ton farm truck and turned it over. Hmmm. Bad picture.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
Quoting synthvol:
The reason you only see ONE house in this picture is because Hurricane Ike obliteratedthe rest. Everyone in the path of very dangerous Irene, PLEASE be safe and take care. Heed your local officials and warnings. Ike was "only" a Category II storm, but the storm surge was likened to a Category IV. Be prepared!!


That is a GREAT eye opener for all those who think they'll be fine in a house on the water during a major hurricane. RIGHT! This ain't "Nights In Rodanthe"!
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Quoting presslord:


yes...and while that house, which was built by an engineer to rigid standards, remained intact...as a practical matter it was also destroyed...as the surge destroyed everything in it...


Given what I do for a living I was EXTREMELY impressed by the fact that roof lost not one shingle...man, that's a 200 mph roof! Unfortunately, you are correct; not being designed to be a submarine, it was to all intents and purposes destroyed depsite it's exterior appearance
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Quoting JonClaw:
My girlfirend lives in College Point, NY roughly 700 feet from Flushing Bay (you can see LaGuardia Airport from her block).

Should I warn her about possible flooding at her doorstep? There's a street a block away that floods from heavy rains, I'd imagine Irene will be no different, if not, worse.


If you like her and still want her to be your girlfriend, yes! (Sarcasm)




Yes you should!
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Isn't it ironic how Irene's name means "Peace" in the Greek language, yet, she's caused so much damage and killed someone is Puerto Rico?
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Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
Residents of New Hanover County are reminded that once sustained winds reach tropical storm force, Snow's Cutt Bridge that connects mainland New Hanover County to Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Ft. Fisher will be closed.


Do you know if the same thing applies to the Wrightsville Beach bridge?
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Quoting Floodman:


Okay, so here';s the deal:

Worse case, do you remember New Orleans after Katrina? Something like that; no point in taking that chance and if you wait til the last minute in THAT place you, might as well not go...on the other hand, if you think she'd hate to feel foolish, then she can try to grow gills if the worse happens


Just sent out a text to my girlfriend along with a bunch of her friends and family that live in CP. The Surge maps flood all of her neighborhood under Cat. 2 conditions...
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Quoting FLdewey:
The FEMA topic will be a big deal.

Unfortunately nobody wants to take personal responsibility. It's FEMA's fault no matter what.

Nice and Breezy in Melbourne today... nice change.


As hard as I am on FEMA...three points are important:

their ground troops are good, decent well intentioned people

FEMA must be invited by individual states to engage

they ain't yo' Mama

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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