Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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957mb found by recon likey not at center yet
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Just a hair more west with landfall at Atlantic Beach, NC
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So, the NHC thinks Irene will not get above 120 mph. Seems odd.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 27.0N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.7N 77.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 30.6N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 32.5N 77.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 34.5N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 39.8N 74.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 48.5N 68.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z 56.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
Jerseygirl - what makes the NE really vulernable is all the rain that you have today and yesterday, double and triple whammy coming. Best of luck to ya.

True. Some areas have had their wettest single month ever; Irene's coming to call at just the wrong time...
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Pat - thanks for all the graphics you have been posting, they are awesome as usual. Hope you and T and the kiddos are doing well.
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Irene will probably begin to re-intensify by tonight. The last few satellite images reveal a better organized CDO. Additionally, the EWRC should be very close to completion, if it hasn't done so already.

Recon should be in there soon to investigate, if I'm not mistaken.
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1589. Zaphod
Little lower intensity forecast and a nudge to the west. Good news for NYC, I imagine. Won't help NC much.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
For the first time in years, a Hurricane Watch has just been issued for New York City!
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Yeah getting a little nervous here in Raleigh. Had planned on driving down to New Bern,NC tomorrow to chase this thing, but if this slight westward trend continues I may not have to go anywhere
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Quoting ncstorm:
straight to hurricane warning for the wilmington area and tropical storm warning for SC..something tells me that we are in for ride


Wow, Hurricane Warning for SC/NC to Wilmington meant that Clayton COULD get winds of 50 kts with peak winds of Category 1 easily now.
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1585. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting ncstorm:


be careful..


Yeah, I know.
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IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
1582. tpabarb
Quoting ncstorm:
straight to hurricane warning for the wilmington area and tropical storm warning for SC..something tells me that we are in for ride




holy crap.

here's the kicker - I'm having a hard time getting off work - including the weekend.

Note to self: start looking for new job after this
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Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
Just saw Gov. Christie on TV telling NJ to get off the Shore and don't expect law enforcement to save you. Will not endanger state workers for fools who ignore warnings. Nice. Hope people listen.


I'm totally amazed to hear him calling for a state of emergency in the state of confusion much less ordering evacuations in Cape May...no one has done that before. Wonder if he'll evacuate Atlantic City? The casinos wouldn't be happy!! I need to get in tomorrow and get picture before it all happens. I think over all he's taking the right approach.
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1580. ncstorm


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1579. P451
Looks like the new eye has formed.

Can't depict path based on the wobbles we see. Between the islands causing some disruption and the core itself reorganizing you can expect a wobbling eye to continue to be a feature for some time.

Perhaps once it pulls away from the islands and into more open water this will lessen.



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1578. Keyslad
Thanks for the great analysis of the storm surge risk. As a very minor point, Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) is not the lowest tide of the year. As the name implies, it is an average of daily lower low water heights.
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1577. Patrap
One can get a Midland WR-100 NOAA Alert Weather Radio for 25-30 Bucks tops...at most Walgreens and Radio Shacks



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Jerseygirl - what makes the NE really vulernable is all the rain that you have today and yesterday, double and triple whammy coming. Best of luck to ya.
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1575. 4waters
Quoting 4waters:


Pat... yours are more updated than mine. where do you get yours?

thx!
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People forgot whats cooking in the east, but that is natural, considering Irenes closiness.
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So has TWC gone into storm alert yet?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting reedzone:


Eye is extremely small, but visible.. Irene is strengthening. She's not looking nearly as bad as she did this morning. I expect a Category 4 storm by the morning, perhaps later tonight.




It did occur to me that Irene getting this far does tend to discount the HAARP speculation. If they could, they would.
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1571. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, going to be outside as long as I can getting video for you guys and my site :P


be careful..
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Raleigh is closer to center line in this new track. Really hope Grandpa left the area today.
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Quoting ncstorm:
straight to warning for the wilmington area and tropical storm warning for SC..something tells me that we are in for ride



Yeah, going to be outside as long as I can getting video for you guys and my site :P
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Quoting charlottefl:


M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)


To me that looks like the old eye but I could be wrong.
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Quoting jerseygrl:


You'd be amazed at the people who are saying "that's not gonna happen". They refuse to even consider the idea that we could get TS force winds, or that we could get flooding. Helllloooo?? We're ALREADY under a flash flood watch with today's rain, and this ain't nuthin!!

OTOH, good luck finding many of the emergency supplies--they're picked clean. Damn, I KNEW I should have gotten that weather radio at WalMart yesterday...


Home Depot or Lowes should also carry weather radios. You might also try sporting goods stores in the camping section. Good luck.
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Pressure is 29.76 here on the West Coast 1007.78mb. Been a while since I've seen pressure that low here..
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
Irene will probably strengthen over 120 mph.

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1564. bwat
If the track holds I am sure I will lose power, have a generator, but phones may not stay up long, either way I will do must best to upload some photos. If nothing else I think i can do it on my phone....if I can figure out how to.
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Quoting mattw479:
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS for the coastal waters all the way up into Georgia now...


Bout time!!
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I think hurricane Irenes' effect in the east coast will be much less than anticipated.
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1561. Patrap
Im not getting on no choppa with dat Big old Dude,,

Snooki when asked to Evac with Gov Christie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
1560. ncstorm
straight to hurricane warning for the wilmington area and tropical storm warning for SC..something tells me that we are in for ride


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TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS for the coastal waters all the way up into Georgia now...
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TWC - NC Hurricane watches now warnings; VA-NJ - Hurricane watch from VA/NC line to Sandy Hook, NJ
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Quoting jerseygrl:


You'd be amazed at the people who are saying "that's not gonna happen". They refuse to even consider the idea that we could get TS force winds, or that we could get flooding. Helllloooo?? We're ALREADY under a flash flood watch with today's rain, and this ain't nuthin!!

OTOH, good luck finding many of the emergency supplies--they're picked clean. Damn, I KNEW I should have gotten that weather radio at WalMart yesterday...



Well they will learn the old fashion way... I have lots of friends that stayed for hurricane Andrew and lets just say they jump even now at the sound of thunder..lol. Not fun when your in the thick of it.
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Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Watch as the Gulf stream pumps FRESH hot water into Irene's western side. She will reach CAT4 again. But the new eye is going to be so small it may collapse quickly. We may even see the dreaded "phe". Shhhhh.


What do you mean again?!
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5PM heading 335 still. 950mb
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Getting quite a band of rain and wind in Boca right now.
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1552. bwat
I am now officially in a hurricane warning here in perquimans county nc.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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1550. zawxdsk
000
WTNT84 KNHC 252050
TCVAT4

IRENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

.HURRICANE IRENE

DEZ003-004-MDZ024-025-NJZ013-014-020-022-023-024- 025-026-027-
VAZ095-097-098-099-100-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W
SANDY-HOOK-NJ 40.46N 74.00W

$$

NCZ017-095-098-102-103-104-260300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W
NC/VA-BORDER 36.55N 75.87W

$$

SCZ045-050-052-053-054-055-056-260300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

EDISTO-BEACH-SC 32.49N 80.32W
LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W

$$

NCZ105-106-107-108-109-110-260300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

LITTLE-RIVER-INLET-SC 33.85N 78.56W
SURF-CITY-NC 34.44N 77.52W

$$

NCZ080-081-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

NORTH-PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.26N 76.04W

$$

NCZ093-094-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

SOUTH-PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.24N 76.04W

$$

NCZ030-031-032-045-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.10W

$$

NCZ015-016-046-047-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

EAST-ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 75.90W

$$

VAZ091-093-094-096-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NEW-POINT-CO-VA 37.10N 76.15W

$$

VAZ084-085-086-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-WINDMILL-POI-VA 37.45N 76.10W

$$

VAZ077-078-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-SMITH-POINT-VA 37.75N 76.05W

$$

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

DELAWARE-BAY-NORTH-OF-SLAUG-DE 39.10N 75.25W

$$

MDZ021-022-023-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-DRUM-POINT-MD 38.10N 76.10W

$$

MDZ018-019-020-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-NORTH-BEACH-MD 38.50N 76.40W

$$

MDZ014-015-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-SANDY-POINT-MD 38.85N 76.40W

$$

MDZ011-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESAPEAKE-BAY-POOLES-ISLAN-MD 39.15N 76.35W

$$

MDZ007-008-012-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

CHESA-BAY-NORTH-OF-POOLES-I-MD 39.40N 76.10W

$$

MDZ017-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

TIDAL-POTOMAC-COBB-ISLAND-MD 38.15N 76.60W

$$

MDZ016-VAZ052-055-057-075-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

TIDAL-POTOMAC-INDIAN-HEAD-MD 38.40N 77.10W

$$

DCZ001-MDZ013-VAZ053-054-260300-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.110825T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

TIDAL-POTOMAC-KEY-BRIDGE-MD 38.80N 77.05W

$$

NCZ047-080-081-093-094-260300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W

$$

NCZ015-016-030-031-032-045-046-260300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

ALBEMARLE-SOUND-NC 36.05N 76.10W

$$

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...MHX...LWX...ILM...CHS...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND
PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:
Looks like the new eye is going to be rather large.


M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
My last statement 1533 should read: Several reliable models trending west with TD 10 right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flwthrfan:
Lots of people on Ft. Lauderdale beach right now:
Link


Idiots.
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
Quoting weatherrx2012:
Why doesn't Irene have visible eye on satellite yet?


The eye is coming back...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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