Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Edit: was looking at 12z Wednesday model. My bad.
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Quoting nola70119:


Probably seeing less of the ridging that was supposed to break down the H in the Atlantic......


Sure hope the short wave that is supposed to help erode the W edge isn't any slower or weaker...
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292. TX2FL
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Quoting IFuSAYso:
FYI, if you are in a declared county, apply for FEMA assistance even if you have home owners. FEMA may cover the voids in your policy. Don't wait for the HO adjuster, that will only delay your recovery. Not to mention your adjuster will most likely advise you to apply as well. 1-800-621-FEMA or FEMA.gov

Renters are also advised to apply.


Thank God,

I just found out that my renter's policy does not cover flood.

I'm in Kingston, PA. This city was underwater after Agnes. This may be worse..
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290. zingo
Even if you are not a drinker, you may find yourself wishing you could have a drink. I remember sleeping in a rocker on the front porch it was so hot. But the drink, that is a important thing!
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Quoting TerraNova:
Does anybody know where I could find a brief list of vital supplies? Nothing major, I'm at 500 feet elevation away from any water body and I'm not in a USGS or NOAA flood zone. I know that might sound ignorant but we had 13 inches of rain with Floyd, and the only thing that's ever gotten flooded around here is the basement. My town is on a hill, so all of the water always drains down the major roadways into the communities around us and the Passaic River.


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
288. LBAR
Here's a link to beach cameras from Hilton Head to Morehead City, NC. Waves look pretty tame...for now
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Straight board shut.
Very well, Diving officer of the Watch, submerge the ship, make your depth 400 feet.....

Below the waves, nice and smooooooth.... :)




ArrrrUUUUUUUUGahhh....Dive, Dive...
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Everyone is so quick to interject their own thoughts on the subject that the orignial message is being obscured.

Shelters may or may not help with your pets. If you love your pets like most of us do, Have a plan to protect them as well.
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The center is showing up somewhat on Miami Long Range Radar - wonder is there is dry area still within the core or if the radar just isn't reading all the rain.

clear NNW motion is continuing.

NHC Miami Long Range Radar
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Quoting StormJunkie:


I tend to agree, but also defer to Chucktown...This latest trend of very slight shifts west is something to keep an eye on though.


Probably seeing less of the ridging that was supposed to break down the H in the Atlantic......
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280. IMA
Quoting FLdewey:
Make plans for your pets... no animals in Red Cross shelters.

Makes a nasty last minute surprise if you don't have a plan.



Communities now are required to include plans for pets in disaster preparedness The Pets Act

When I volunteered after Katrina, here in San Antonio, we had a building just for pets -- and they've come a long way towards being more considerate of pets. Too many people wouldn't leave when they were told their pets couldn't go on the evac bus.

More resources for disaster preparedness for your pets, horses, & livestock can be found on my WU blog.
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Weather Safety Emergency Checklist
Be ready for a weather emergency in advance and put together a basic survival kit.

Food Items:
Bottled drinking water
Bread
Crackers
Cookies, snacks
Canned fruit
Canned meat, fish
Apples, bananas
Dried fruit
Canned/boxed beverages
Fruit drinks
Peanut butter

Non-Food Items:
Ice
Coolers
Plastic forks and cups
Napkins
Can opener (non-electric)
Batteries for flashlights and radio
Plastic trash bags
Charcoal
Water purifying tablets
Flashlights
Candles and matches
Clothing and bedding
Extra socks and underwear
Pillows
Sleeping bag and blankets
Washcloth and towel for each person
Soap, toothbrushes, toothpaste
Deodorant
Shaving kit
Contact lens solution
Hair care items and mirror
Dentures
Sanitary napkins and tampons
Paper towels, toilet paper
Hearing aid batteries
Watch or clock
Portable radio with fresh batteries
Chlorine tablets
Spare pair of eyeglasses
Cash
Prescription medicines
Important papers (drivers licenses, insurance policies, social security cards)
Toolbox with hammer, nails, screws, screwdrivers and wrenches (to use after the storm to make your home livable again)
Cell phone (take an extra battery or a means to power or charge it)
list of people to contact for emergencies

First Aid Kit:
Keep contents of first aid kit in a waterproof metal or plastic box.

Prescription medicines (four-week supply)
Bandages and Band-Aids
Antiseptic
Adhesive tape rolls
Aspirin
Sun-screen
Insect repellent
First aid handbook
Scissors
Antibacterial soap
Safety pins
Thermometer
Needle (for splinters)
Items for Infants:

Small toys include favorite stuffed animals
Clothes
Diapers and baby wipes
Milk or formula
Powders, creams or ointments
Bottles and nipples
Baby food
Sheets, blankets, rubber pads
Portable crib
Plastic bags
Pacifiers
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Quoting Gorty:
When you guys post the models for the storm, can you also post the images of it through New England please? Since this is NOT just a mid-atlantic storm.


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Not to be an alarmist, Mid Atlantic and Northeast residents please take Irene seriously. Please.
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I don't know if this will apply to you folks in the NE, but I do have one tip that worked well for us after Charley. We knew it was going to be hot, humid and oppressive after the storm passed, so we cranked the air conditioning temperature as low as we could get it before we lost electricity. We got it down to about 68 degrees in there. We were freezing for a while. However, our house is concrete block and it holds the inside temperature well and the interior temperature didn't get over eighty for almost two days.

It may sound silly, but comfortable temperature for sleeping is a wonderful thing. After those two days, sleeping was MISERABLE.
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Jim Cantore is headed to New York City.
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Looks like you guys were right, the east "wobble" is over and the next frame shows it back on track to the NNW. Going out to ready myself for whatever Irene has in store for Wilmington. Will be back later to see how she's lookin.
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Quoting Patrap:


Interesting, it appears we have overshooting cloudtops in the northeast quadrant.
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Wow, Dr. Masters top picture of Nassau is just stunning....I hope folks are alright down there.
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Northeast forecast
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Does anybody have a link to the most current model runs?

The ---> http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

is pretty useful, unless you are looking for the most current runs. It usually takes several hours for this site to update its info.
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Quoting presslord:
Important note re: animals:

All shelters, hotels, etc., are required by federal law to accept service animals!!!! It's not negotiable...don't let anyone ever tell you anything different...the penalties for playing games with this can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars
,tell em press,states love stepping on your rights
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Quoting Gorty:
When you guys post the models for the storm, can you also post the images of it through New England please? Since this is NOT just a mid-atlantic storm.



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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Newbie here but long time lurker.Just want to say when this blog is void of the idiots that come on here from time to time it is great. Love the humor and sarcasim and appreciate everyones knowledge. I find it fascinating that this storm is right outside my window by a couple hundred miles and I'm more worried about my family and friends in MD. Been through enough of them to know what they might be in for.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Straight board shut.
Very well, Diving officer of the Watch, submerge the ship, make your depth 400 feet.....

Below the waves, nice and smooooooth.... :)




unless there's a fish storm...;^)
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264. zingo
Quoting TBird78:


I would think you could go by common sense...water, batteries, flashlights, non-perishable foods, fill your car up if you have one, battery operated radio or tv, charge your cell phone, supplies for pets and/or babies, put away debris that will fly...

Channel WRAL, Raleigh NC has a page about supplies.
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FEMA hurricane prep and recovery info.
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Quoting presslord:


I don't...but I defer to Chucktown's expertise...


I tend to agree, but also defer to Chucktown...This latest trend of very slight shifts west is something to keep an eye on though.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting tpabarb:


Wilmington people: pet-friendly shelter at Noble Middle School, 6520 Market St.

Note to those out of county: if they only take New Hanover people, ask if you can volunteer. I was going to do that once in Florida - they told me I could go to the pet friendly shelter in Manatee county if I volunteered there. (I ended up staying home)


Thanks for your post.

Very good information to have.

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First rain bands headed for Naples, FL on SW FL coast.

Picture taken looking NE.


Radar with my location below.
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257. Gorty
When you guys post the models for the storm, can you also post the images of it through New England please? Since this is NOT just a mid-atlantic storm.
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HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
849 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BLADEN...COLUMBUS...INLAND PENDER...COASTAL PENDER...INLAND NEW
HANOVER...COASTAL NEW HANOVER...INLAND BRUNSWICK...COASTAL
BRUNSWICK...INLAND HORRY...COASTAL HORRY...INLAND GEORGETOWN AND
COASTAL GEORGETOWN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


Renters are also advised to apply.


Thank you, my landlord isn't taking the storm seriously. Doubt my renter's policy covers this.
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Quoting FLdewey:
AP: Navy orders Va. ships to move out of Irene's path

Prepare for dive!


Straight board shut.
Very well, Diving officer of the Watch, submerge the ship, make your depth 400 feet.....

Below the waves, nice and smooooooth.... :)


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Quoting zingo:
I am buying a house today in SC!! Wasn't sure about it, but feel pretty safe we are gonna be missed.

BTY, Frank is not going out with FEMA on this one. He is retired. I just hope the New Englanders get their act together real soon and handle this storm like a true southerner!
w we got an 8 ft surge from the Post-Christmas Nor-easter, so we can deal with a Cat 1 or 2.
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So looks like the 12z GFS is now between Wilmington and Moorehead...That's a pretty decent shift.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Good info!

I wouldn't quite say it was common (at least not in East Central Florida)

Out of our 30 or so designated shelters only 1 accepts animals, and there is no co-location.

Good news if that option is available though.


I volunteer with the Red Cross in ECFL and we do coordinate to help people be able to either co-locate or at least be able to shelter their animals.
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Quoting TerraNova:
Does anybody know where I could find a brief list of vital supplies? Nothing major, I'm at 500 feet elevation away from any water body and I'm not in a USGS or NOAA flood zone.


I would think you could go by common sense...water, batteries, flashlights, non-perishable foods, fill your car up if you have one, battery operated radio or tv, charge your cell phone, supplies for pets and/or babies, put away debris that will fly...
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
249. jpsb
Quoting reedzone:
The eastern turn u see is only a wobble, should resume a NNW movement in about an hour or so.
Looks like NYC best hope is a serious N.C. hit, taking some of the sting out of Irene. Models are tight and NHC is very good a storm tracks once they start moving north. Hope those in NY and NE are paying attention.

For hurricanes I like coleman lanterns, cooler full of beer, a good revolver, oh and a sleeping bad too.
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wind gusts already to 35 mph at Cocoa Beach. And this:

Capt. Andy Blomme, increased port conditions for the Port of Canaveral to X-RAY, due to the expectation of gale force winds generated by Hurricane Irene...Vessels more than 500 gross tons should make preparations to leave the port at this time or should have requested permission from the COTP to remain in port.
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Good Mornining: To those in the cone, feel free to check out my blog which has some helpful Hurricane prep tips from experienced hurricane veterans. You are in my prayers... To hurricane vets: feel free to post your best ideas/tips for others. Thanks.
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Quoting IFuSAYso:
FYI, if you are in a declared county, apply for FEMA assistance even if you have home owners. FEMA may cover the voids in your policy. Don't wait for the HO adjuster, that will only delay your recovery. Not to mention your adjuster will most likely advise you to apply as well. 1-800-621-FEMA or FEMA.gov
Link
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Quoting IFuSAYso:


we thank you.


we will actually be working pretty closely with FEMA's Office of Disability Affairs...the process of arranging that has been kinda ugly...but hopefully the result will be satisfactory...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron