Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Quoting scottsvb:
From Saturday... I posted it here but also on flhurricane.com (Irene forecast page 3)


I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days. My assumptions are usually correct so Its a good bet 60% or
more that this might only bring some squalls at most to the east coast of Florida.

Reasons... Formation of the center is further NE.. Model trend on the ECMWF is more east near Nassau and I think it will end up just east of there heading NNW by Thurs near 25N and 76W and get no closer than 79W making landfall in S Carolina.

I could be wrong... but this was suppose to form around 15N and 63W by Sunday morning.. it's already around 16.2N as of this post and 61W... only chance this has of making Florida is a west turn on Sunday (cause its more WNW right now) and its LLC get pulled W of the midlevel Circulation over Haiti due to landfall around 18N and 70W exiting around Port-A-Prince Haiti and then going inland over SE Cuba keeping this a 50mph Tropical Storm until it comes off around 78W and 23N...but that just probably not going to happen...probably come off near Labadee Haiti moving WNW and moving NW thru middle of the Bahamas.



Last Sat Night... though I say NC as of Monday.. my 5 day path was 100% on the $$$ (again)..kudos to myself..hehe


Scott

Reedzone will be devestated lmao
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I am so very worried about NYC.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
Good afternoon all from the windy Space Coast. No rain at my place yet, but getting 25+ mph sustained, with gusts near 35 right now. Just checked in for the day and gotta say that wind field has REALLY expanded overnight, Irene is huge!

To all in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... she means business, please heed ALL warnings from your emergency management agency.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
391. Gorty
Levi, when do you think she will pick up in forward speed and how fast?
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Quoting presslord:


FB...but please use our WU blog for that...Thanks!!
Done done and donation made.. tell the storms to hit us up After payday next time.. ;-) Twittered and FBed your info ;-)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Pat was there for the invention of fire....


..actually Grothar was involved in the Fire thing.

...That Middle Pyrimad was out of line I argued for a Decade though.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
I have a quick question for everyone... I live in central Mass in between Boston and Worcester... I live in a two story condo and I am wondering if I should board up my windows and if so, with what? Thanks.

BTW, I love all the info I get on these message boards. Great stuff!
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Irene is one massive hurricane, I'm surprised to see such impressive banding coming into South Florida considering how for east Irene is and that its on the west side of the storm. The size of Irene is going to be an extra factor in destructive capability.
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385. Jax82
Nice squall about to hit Miami.
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384. IMA
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Everyone is so quick to interject their own thoughts on the subject that the orignial message is being obscured.

Shelters may or may not help with your pets. If you love your pets like most of us do, Have a plan to protect them as well.

Not sure how providing additional info about how to make plans for your pets is obscuring the message:

By the way, someone last night, after animalrsq posted some great info, said we should worry about people first. No one was suggesting otherwise! Pets need to be considered because they are our responsibility & we're just providing info to make it easier for folks to prepare. Pets can be of great comfort during & after a disaster, too :)
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Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

quick question. I know you are not thinking of this right now due to Irene being the center of attention but can you please briefly tell what your tropical outlook for September is, the upper level pattern and possible landfall threat areas? thanks


It's the peak of the hurricane season. Expect more threats to the U.S. and obviously the most activity that you will see all season.
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Link



pier cam on Emerald Isle NC should be interesting Saturaday
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.
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this has been a very strange hurricane... every morning at dmax I was expecting substantial convection to fire up, but each time the hurricane looked rather subdued, only to find later that as dmin came on, the convection started to fire. You can definitely see the EWRC happening in the zoomed sat views. There is a tendril of convection hanging on to the center of the new eye wall.

Link
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Last four GFS, 12Z red


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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
best position is central long island eastward for direct contact with the eye 36 hrs till approach


Always the brides maid and never the bride
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Quoting Brock31:


I bet it was strange living in a time before color was invented.


Pat was there for the invention of fire....
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The recon planes earlier did not report concentric eyewalls, but visible imagery seems to indicate that they still exist. The inner eyewall looks to be disintegrating with an outer band wrapping around trying to form an outer eyewall.

Link
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Quoting PdCMexico:
Link

The East Coast Surfing Championship in Virginia Beach. Not sure that it will make it into the weekend.


I hope the people in town for the ECSC don't decide to be "cool" and venture out to surf the waves.
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Folly Beach SC...a few minutes ago...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10484
Love that radar picture from Miami - JoshFSU123. Here in Bonita/Naples and I am sure for those on Florida's east coast, it takes nerves of steel and complete confidence in the predicted path to not get nervous. Remembering Charlie's sudden change in path, it is a little disconserting. But I know, it is supposed to go north. Wind is blowing, dog is barking
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I dont know if this has been posted, but school is only for half a day tomorrow for New hanover county (wilmington)..our county is also under a state of emergency as well..good times..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15137
It is getting extremely dark here in dania beach the winds are picking up and we are waiting on this ominous feeder ban coming in oh i hear rain
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ESL by LSU

Hurricane (Category 3) IRENE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting muddertracker:

Maybe he can tie himself to the empire state building during the surge...


LOL!
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Quoting FLdewey:
BREAKING: NJ Gov. Christie is considering upgrading the Jersey Shore and Barrier Island evacuations to mandatory.

Time to start packing up the booze...

$10 says a Red Cross truck gets car jacked.


Governor should use a simple rule to make the decision...

WWSD? What would Snooki do?
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Just a note..they are actually filming the Jersey Shore next season right now..all the hurricane evac will be on footage..nothing like DJ Pauley to play some house music while exiting the Jersey Shore..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15137
Afternoon everyone...I see the models have shifted a tad west over the past 12 hours....what's the latest thoughts on Irene? Getting a little worried in eastern NC.
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11:00am Advisories
*Click on graphics to enlarge

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Quoting Patrap:


Thanks again Patrap.

Those local radar loops really help to clarify what the actual movement is.
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Quoting Gorty:


So I will get the worst possible impacts excluding waves and surge?


Hoping that Irene shifts east away for your and my neck of the woods.
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Quoting Levi32:
High-res rapid-scan Visible Loop of Irene

Thankfully, the eyewall is still having issues, but if the eye ever closes off and clears out, we will be looking at a Category 4 hurricane.
Eye is dead smack on Marsh Harbour.... Abaco.

And directly over the main out islands of Tiloo, Elbow Cay, Man-o-war Cay, Scotland cay, Great Guana Cay and Green turtle.....

God bless them now....
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People would be surprised to find that direct hurricane strikes in the northeast area are more common than in the Tampa Bay area :)

But I am not smiling about this hurricane headed for the northeast. I'm very concerned actually.
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Patrap-What's the link to that LSU water vapor animation, please?
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So this new TD 10, I hear people saying its going to go west. But I see the forecast and it looks like its going to head north.
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Quoting P451:


Is is encouraged that Snooki and all the girls that now dress and behave like her ride out the storm on a jetty.



Jetties everywhere are protesting.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
newbie questions:

1) given the size of the storm, when y'all say "morehead city" does that mean the west section of the eyewall? bands? direct eyewall hit??

2) will the bay absorb any of the punch, and/ or the surge - or is the storm too big?

3) if it hits morehead first, then NJ, is there enough to suck some of the juice out bf NJ, or are they too close and NJ gets essentially hit with the same momentum?

and last
4) NOAA is saying EWRC is hard to determine, but Dr. Masters feels more confident... thoughts?
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354. Gorty
Quoting Methurricanes:
if youre in Springifild or Holyoke, Westfield ect. it may track over you.


So I will get the worst possible impacts excluding waves and surge?
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Quoting Patrap:
The 1938 Hurricane, by the Works Project Administration - During this storm, Frank Schubert, last keeper of Coney Island Light, was aboard the buoy tender ship Tulip, which was thrown aground on top of some train tracks by the storm.





I bet it was strange living in a time before color was invented.
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From Saturday... I posted it here but also on flhurricane.com (Irene forecast page 3)


I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days. My assumptions are usually correct so Its a good bet 60% or
more that this might only bring some squalls at most to the east coast of Florida.

Reasons... Formation of the center is further NE.. Model trend on the ECMWF is more east near Nassau and I think it will end up just east of there heading NNW by Thurs near 25N and 76W and get no closer than 79W making landfall in S Carolina.

I could be wrong... but this was suppose to form around 15N and 63W by Sunday morning.. it's already around 16.2N as of this post and 61W... only chance this has of making Florida is a west turn on Sunday (cause its more WNW right now) and its LLC get pulled W of the midlevel Circulation over Haiti due to landfall around 18N and 70W exiting around Port-A-Prince Haiti and then going inland over SE Cuba keeping this a 50mph Tropical Storm until it comes off around 78W and 23N...but that just probably not going to happen...probably come off near Labadee Haiti moving WNW and moving NW thru middle of the Bahamas.



Last Sat Night... though I say NC as of Monday.. my 5 day path was 100% on the $$$ (again)..kudos to myself..hehe
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Levi,

quick question. I know you are not thinking of this right now due to Irene being the center of attention but can you please briefly tell what your tropical outlook for September is, the upper level pattern and possible landfall threat areas? thanks
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Quoting FLNative45:


I helped staff Indian River County's special needs shelter during Jeanne in 2004, and one person had a service dog with her. Since then, the county has established a shelter for folks living on the barrier island or in mobile homes who have pets. Pre-registration is required, but at least we have a shelter specifically set up to handle pets. Hopefully we never have to use it, but we're pre-registered just in case!!


you can also check and see if there are any "special needs" shelters open. this is one of the first things brought up at our local ema meetings when a large scale event is forecast.
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In these Large Hurricanes we have seen the last Decade,, remember,,the Surge will get there way sooner than in past events, the Wind field will be MUCH larger than past Storms in Memory.

Heed your Local Emg Mgt folks for this event.

Action is required for those in many areas.

Time is your friend now, but conditions tomorrow and Sat will go downhill fast.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
We need nothing short of a miracle. But everyone knows that already. Let's all hope and pray for one.

In addition to the Irene and L- 10, (Dr. M seems to think it's of no concern and so do most models, at this point). However, there is yet another system predicted to come off Africa on Monday, by the GFS. At that time, the B. High is back in the picture. Hopefully, the GFS and other models are wrong!

Good luck to all in Irene's path and to those already affected. God's speed.
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Quoting FLdewey:
FIST PUMP!

Voluntary evacuation orders have been issued for the Jersey Shore and Jersey Barrier Islands
I was on the Jersey shore when Hurricane Belle move about 40 or so miles offshore in 1976..We were near the Barnegat Lighthouse..It messed things up quite a bit. New Jersey is a small state, but has over 140 miles of coastline for storms to gnaw on. I hope there ready.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Everyone is so guick to interject their own thoughts on the subject that the orignial message is being obscured.

Shelters may or may not help with your pets. If you love your pets like most of us do, Have a plan to protect them as well.


+1000
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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