Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Quoting SoMDWX:
I am in Southern Maryland. I wonder what the winds will be like here? Also what will the surge in the upper bay be like if it gets here as a Cat 2.



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Quoting tpabarb:


Oh great.

I know that in 2004 NOGAPS sucked. Does it still ?


Dr. Masters consider it one of the reliable models..so it has some validation to it
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
I can't wait to see the Atlantic City casino's announcing their hurricane parties..

LET IT RIDE at the MGM...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
441. Jax82
With the millions of people living in high rise condos and buildings in the NE, there just isnt anywhere for them to go in this situation, I imagine if an evac is ordered, the highways are going to be gridlocked.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
Quoting ncstorm:
12Z NOGAPS..brings it right over wilmington

Link


Oh great.

I know that in 2004 NOGAPS sucked. Does it still ?
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Quoting Grothar:
The rain is coming down really heavy right now in East Broward, (FLL) This system must have a lot of energy to drop this much rain in small outer bands. You would enjoy seeing this tropical downpour, Levi.


Probably more interesting than Bonnie I'd think
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438. Vero1
Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
Blowing and raining really hard on the Treasure Coast of Florida
Vero is 22mph NE last Gust was 40mph
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A very impressive tower visible as the new eyewall developes. Could see cat4 by 5pm update.
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NJ people, for more info. go to http://ready.nj.gov
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Levi,

looking at this storm from a micro perspective, do you think the damage or potential of could be more in the Jersey/NYC area or southern new england?

I ask because my uncle and his family live only half an hour outside the city
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Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Wow.

Really strong burst of convection on the east flank.
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Come on Irene,
I swear (well he means) at this moment you decoupling would mean everything...
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I am in Southern Maryland. I wonder what the winds will be like here? Also what will the surge in the upper bay be like if it gets here as a Cat 2.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Blowing and raining really hard on the Treasure Coast of Florida
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12Z NOGAPS..brings it right over wilmington

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting surfsidesindy:


And local Channel 13 still saying "May have gusts up to 30mph when Irene is at her closest" gotta love it.


Yup. Is that coming from Drunken Danny Trainor?!? LOL. The wind is really whipping on the causeways this afternoon as well going from Cocoa to Merritt Island was interesting (nevermind the near rideable surf in the Indian River today)
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The rain is coming down really heavy right now in East Broward, (FLL) This system must have a lot of energy to drop this much rain in small outer bands. You would enjoy seeing this tropical downpour, Levi.
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just heard recon go over my area siesta key beach in sarasota,checked their latest cordinants and it was them!!!,pretty cool i asked earlier if anyone had a map if they went over me around 10am this morning,i think its the same one that just went back over me and is gong back to beloxi???
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422. Jax82
Last few Sat pics show the eyewall is getting better organized as she is over Abaco Island, the eastern edge has really high cloud tops.



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Quoting tpabarb:
I am so very worried about NYC.


Lots of glass, possible subway inundation, but at least its not barrelling up the Hudson from the SE. That would be a horror story.
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Remember what I said yesterday about how bad this storm could be. This from the HPC:

THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL.

Link

It doesn't get much more serious than that folks. Even the government agencies are starting to use very strong language here, and they are absolutely justified in doing so.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
419. Vero1
Whats NOAA WX Radio saying in the NYC area?
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Link from TWC if you haven't seen it yet on how each state is preparing for the storm...Link
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 25th, with Video


thanks, Levi. Irene is bad news for everyone concerned.
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Quoting NUChickens:
I have a quick question for everyone... I live in central Mass in between Boston and Worcester... I live in a two story condo and I am wondering if I should board up my windows and if so, with what? Thanks.

BTW, I love all the info I get on these message boards. Great stuff!


Just reposting this because it ended up on the last page... any suggestions? Thanks!
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Quoting Gorty:


How can it be worse for New England? Wouldn't that mean she will have more time to weaken before hitting me?


That is true, though here I think due to the size of the storm, the longer-lasting impacts would outweight a shorter, stronger punch, especially in regards to rainfall, which will be worse no matter how weak the storm is if it's moving slower. Flooding is going to be huge with this system given all the rain that has occurred in New England this month.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
yo, yo..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
You know, someone asked for a link to other local livestream broadcasts. If anyone can find one for the NYC stations, it would be nice if they could post it. This is shaping up to be a dangerous event.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's the peak of the hurricane season. Expect more threats to the U.S. and obviously the most activity that you will see all season.

Look at the full run of the 12Z GFS. Lol it looks like a replay of Irene except it goes into the gulf.
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Quoting presslord:


I would assume those clouds in the Folly photo I just posted are the northernmost wisps of Irene...but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...everyone else does...


Dat be the High Cirrus announcing Irene's Northern Edge, Follow them and you can determine motion to a degree.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting Grothar:
That is probably one of the Doc's best blog. He covered just about everything with this one. Not a good picture of what might happen.
\

Everything but 'inland' rainfall projections that could potentially cause creeks and rivers to come out of their banks. Being miles inland is where one wants to be to avoid storm surge, but there are threats to low lying areas in those places as well. He had a lot of extremely useful info to get out so I understand him omitting that.
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409. Gorty
Quoting Levi32:


She should start accelerating as she impacts the outer banks of North Carolina. Most storms during the late stages of recurvature do, and Irene will be moving over 20mph by the time she nears the mid-Atlantic states and New England. She could be a bit slower than most storms near New Jersey, as the upper pattern doesn't have a strong trough coming down to get her, and instead, she is moving up through a benign weakness between two ridges. The slower she moves, the worse, but she should be out of the entire New England area 24 hours after she impacts the mid-Atlantic.


How can it be worse for New England? Wouldn't that mean she will have more time to weaken before hitting me?
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Quoting Patrap:


..actually Grothar was involved in the Fire thing.

...That Middle Pyrimad was out of line I argued for a Decade though.


Yo!!!!!!!!
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I'm impressed how the models predicted this recurve. Congratulations to the National Hurricane Center for their forecast team.
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Patrap,
Thanks! I'll be watching the ESL loop all day to spy the approching trough. I figure when it breaks the dry air to the north of Irene, then she'll be free to start the run up to NC.
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Latest steering pattern 200-700 mb layer

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They have finally cancelled schools in Carteret County for Friday. Everyone is still trying to get an idea of how bad it could get here Saturday. I think the fact that there was no bread in Walmart last night (literally bare shelves) people have decided to take Irene seriously.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Good afternoon all from the windy Space Coast. No rain at my place yet, but getting 25+ mph sustained, with gusts near 35 right now. Just checked in for the day and gotta say that wind field has REALLY expanded overnight, Irene is huge!

To all in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast... she means business, please heed ALL warnings from your emergency management agency.


And local Channel 13 still saying "May have gusts up to 30mph when Irene is at her closest" gotta love it.
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Quoting midgulfmom:
One great tip I got while shopping for evac foodstuff was to put all the fridge and freezer stuff you want to try to keep in a thick garbage bag, tie it and put it in the freezer. If you don't flood, when you get back you just toss it, and your fridge/freezer is saved. That thawing, dripping foodstuff juice gets down in your fridge parts and it's nearly impossible to get rid of the foul smell. After Gustav, I returned quickly enough to have the bag in my freezer still frozen and because my power was back on I was able to keep it. If the power had not returned and I was evac'ed for longer, I would have just simply tossed the bag. Stay safe all.


This is an excellent tip. I had to clean out my mother-in-law's fridge after she evacuated for a week. What a smelly mess!
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Quoting Gorty:
Levi, when do you think she will pick up in forward speed and how fast?


She should start accelerating as she impacts the outer banks of North Carolina. Most storms during the late stages of recurvature do, and Irene will be moving over 20mph by the time she nears the mid-Atlantic states and New England. She could be a bit slower than most storms near New Jersey, as the upper pattern doesn't have a strong trough coming down to get her, and instead, she is moving up through a benign weakness between two ridges. The slower she moves, the worse, but she should be out of the entire New England area 24 hours after she impacts the mid-Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Patrap:


I would assume those clouds in the Folly photo I just posted are the northernmost wisps of Irene...but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong...everyone else does...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting Patrap:


..actually Grothar was involved in the Fire thing.

...That Middle Pyrimad was out of line I argued for a Decade though.


I thought it was a tetrahedron now?
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http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/h urricane-zones.html
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thanks Levi. I was just asking because the tropical satellite of Africa is looking pretty bleak (unless I am looking at the wrong thing...). All that dry air coming from there

anyhow, on a serious note, have you ever thought about going to work for the NHC? Man, you are good just like the pros. The fact that you can be on with Bastardi shows you are intelligent

on another note, we are on the west coast of florida and are liking the wind we are and will be receiving from Irene. makes for nice walks and beach weather
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NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness Guide, a pdf,

Link

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Quoting scottsvb:
From Saturday... I posted it here but also on flhurricane.com (Irene forecast page 3)


I dont see this coming to florida.... I think its more of a Puerto Rico-Hispaniola and Bahamas and
a threat to the Carolinas in 6 days. My assumptions are usually correct so Its a good bet 60% or
more that this might only bring some squalls at most to the east coast of Florida.

Reasons... Formation of the center is further NE.. Model trend on the ECMWF is more east near Nassau and I think it will end up just east of there heading NNW by Thurs near 25N and 76W and get no closer than 79W making landfall in S Carolina.

I could be wrong... but this was suppose to form around 15N and 63W by Sunday morning.. it's already around 16.2N as of this post and 61W... only chance this has of making Florida is a west turn on Sunday (cause its more WNW right now) and its LLC get pulled W of the midlevel Circulation over Haiti due to landfall around 18N and 70W exiting around Port-A-Prince Haiti and then going inland over SE Cuba keeping this a 50mph Tropical Storm until it comes off around 78W and 23N...but that just probably not going to happen...probably come off near Labadee Haiti moving WNW and moving NW thru middle of the Bahamas.



Last Sat Night... though I say NC as of Monday.. my 5 day path was 100% on the $$$ (again)..kudos to myself..hehe


Scott

Reedzone will be devestated lmao
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.