Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Quoting E46Pilot:



It's really not that different than the standard airmass thunderstorms we get in the afternoon. The rain drops are not as thick however the amount of rain that falls with each band is very heavy. It last about 10 minutes, and then its calm. Wind gusts I estimate around 35kts
Thanks!
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Here they are. The physic Twins which predicted the Hurricane in the Northeast

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Well let's see. The forecast track is for a Category 2 hurricane to move directly over you and you are by the seashore. What do you think?


Without ever having experienced a storm like that it is almost impossible to comprehend what it is like, I know I sure didn't.

Pay attention to ALL Local evac. orders!
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Local forecaster here in eastern NC just said he wouldn't rule out Irene as a cat 4 at landfall. Anyone think that's possible?
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491. 7544
hate to say it but irene took a couple of wobbles west sorry but thats what i see lol
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Quoting VieraChris:


E46: I'm in Melbourne but have family in Boca. How's that nasty band that's just coming thru? Thanks!



It's really not that different than the standard airmass thunderstorms we get in the afternoon. The rain drops are not as thick however the amount of rain that falls with each band is very heavy. It last about 10 minutes, and then its calm. Wind gusts I estimate around 35kts
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Quoting Levi32:


Well let's see. The forecast track is for a Category 2 hurricane to move directly over you and you are by the seashore. What do you think?


I sense a younger contender snapping at my heels as the Master of the Smart A** comeback...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
Quoting wolftribe2009:
QUESTION????

Who were those physic sisters that told the Today Show earlier this year about a Hurricane hitting the North East this coming Fall????

I remember someone talking about it here but maybe IRENE was that storm the girl were talking about would hit the North East.


it was the psychic twins..and they were predicting it for the fall but seeing that we are almost at septemeber, i think they got it spot on..they were on the VIEW when they stated this..I wonder if the NHC is consulting with them..they should
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Bloomberg just suggested you move your car to a "hill" and put your stuff up on the second floor. Perhaps everyone in NYC - Long Island should take a peek at the pics that Irene in the Dominica Republic -DHRT posted and Dr. Master's included on his blog?! A major, literal "heads up", eh?
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Will the eye of Irene stay offshore or close to it once it makes landfall in NC?

Is there any chance of weakening?
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You should see the number of people in the water swimming right now. It is crazy. The surf has built to about 5' and the lifegaurds have the "no swimming" red flags out.

Every year the same thing. The local surfers here get no credit for the number of lives they save each year because the lifegaurds can't keep up.
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QUESTION????

Who were those physic sisters that told the Today Show earlier this year about a Hurricane hitting the North East this coming Fall????

I remember someone talking about it here but maybe IRENE was that storm the girl were talking about would hit the North East.
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Quoting Brock31:


I saw that.

Not good, but still it is just ONE of the models.

When they all start trending that way, then I'll start running in circles, screaming wildly as if I have been set ablaze with nitromethane fuel like Ricky Bobby in Talledega nights.


I am not feeling the westward trend of the models..its getting too close for comfort..
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Hi Hurricane Irene.

Hurricane Irene off the coast of Boca Raton, FL



E46: I'm in Melbourne but have family in Boca. How's that nasty band that's just coming thru? Thanks!
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she's tracking west
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Quoting ncstorm:
12Z NOGAPS..brings it right over wilmington

Link


I saw that.

Not good, but still it is just ONE of the models.

When they all start trending that way, then I'll start running in circles, screaming wildly as if I have been set ablaze with nitromethane fuel like Ricky Bobby in Talledega nights.
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Quoting tpabarb:


Yup. I'm going to go to Durham early in the morning, I don't want to take chances and I don't even like tropical storm winds at night. Are you leaving?


I will only leave if its going to be within 75 miles of Wilmington and a category 4..anything under than that, I will stay..the weather channel were predicting chances of tornados inland for NC as well even as far as Raleigh area..
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Quoting kwgirl:
Hi Aussie, here in the Keys we are breathing a sigh of relief. Even if she made a hard left turn, she is not going to impact us. That said, the people in the rest of Florida are still holding their breath. It's never over till it's over. I think we will all be relieved when it makes landfall though feel very sad and frightened for the people in Irene's path.


Couldn't have said it better myself. I live just south of Tampa on the west coast and feel better about things but you're right. It's never over till it's over.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yup. Is that coming from Drunken Danny Trainor?!? LOL. The wind is really whipping on the causeways this afternoon as well going from Cocoa to Merritt Island was interesting (nevermind the near rideable surf in the Indian River today)


Sounds like it's nasty down in Vero now, headed our way. Did you hear that Port Can. raised it's alert level to Xray and is making all large ships leave port? They are now saying they are expecting gale force winds there. If they are expecting them, why isn't the rest of ECFL expecting them?! Craziness.
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Hi Hurricane Irene.

Hurricane Irene off the coast of Boca Raton, FL

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:

hey levi im in new jersey by the shore. is it going to be really bad here or just a stormy day?


Well let's see. The forecast track is for a Category 2 hurricane to move directly over you and you are by the seashore. What do you think?
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Quoting ncstorm:


Yes it does..are you in wilmington too?


Yup. I'm going to go to Durham early in the morning, I don't want to take chances and I don't even like tropical storm winds at night. Are you leaving?
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Quoting PorkChopGirl:
441. Jax82 1:05 PM EDT on August 25, 2011 +0
With the millions of people living in high rise condos and buildings in the NE, there just isnt anywhere for them to go in this situation,


What about Canada?
iam sure if need be they would be welcomed
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:

hey levi im in new jersey by the shore. is it going to be really bad here or just a stormy day?


Could be VERY bad...
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Quoting Grothar:
You know, someone asked for a link to other local livestream broadcasts. If anyone can find one for the NYC stations, it would be nice if they could post it. This is shaping up to be a dangerous event.


You may find one here
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
No idea if this has been posted already (probably), but...

A number of Irene pics from the ISS: http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index .html?media_id=108144931
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Dry air is hampering Irenes Northwestern side, still looks to be organizing more as you can see the eye clearly along with better structure. Most models start to deepen her to 940-925 mlb. as she moves towards North Carolina. We shall see what happens.

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Quoting wunderweatherman123:

hey levi im in new jersey by the shore. is it going to be really bad here or just a stormy day?


Its been bad in dirty jersey for years
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thanks.

I remember watching a segment on the weather channel and the show was "It could happen tomorrow".

that is freaky how that scenario of a possible category 2 hurricane could actually happen!
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Quoting Grothar:
The rain is coming down really heavy right now in East Broward, (FLL) This system must have a lot of energy to drop this much rain in small outer bands. You would enjoy seeing this tropical downpour, Levi.


Nothing like what you're getting Grothar but we are actually getting light brief showers here in the Bradenton area. When I look at the radar and the direction the rain is coming from it looks like they are part of the outermost flow of Irene.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Question for everyone in Florida.

I've always wondered, How does it feel to have such a beast of a storm just a few 100 miles away?


This is mother nature at her meanest and her most beautifulness.
Hi Aussie, here in the Keys we are breathing a sigh of relief. Even if she made a hard left turn, she is not going to impact us. That said, the people in the rest of Florida are still holding their breath. It's never over till it's over. I think we will all be relieved when it makes landfall though feel very sad and frightened for the people in Irene's path.
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Quoting Levi32:


She should start accelerating as she impacts the outer banks of North Carolina. Most storms during the late stages of recurvature do, and Irene will be moving over 20mph by the time she nears the mid-Atlantic states and New England. She could be a bit slower than most storms near New Jersey, as the upper pattern doesn't have a strong trough coming down to get her, and instead, she is moving up through a benign weakness between two ridges. The slower she moves, the worse, but she should be out of the entire New England area 24 hours after she impacts the mid-Atlantic.

hey levi im in new jersey by the shore. is it going to be really bad here or just a stormy day?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
Quoting muddertracker:
I can't wait to see the Atlantic City casino's announcing their hurricane parties..

LET IT RIDE at the MGM...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Sad part is you know there is someone actually printing that exact phrase right now on a flyer
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Quoting tpabarb:


are we allowed to use swear words in this forum?

OK pretend I am

that looks bad for NYC too, worse than the other track.



Yes it does..are you in wilmington too?
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Quoting ncstorm:


Dr. Masters consider it one of the reliable models..so it has some validation to it


are we allowed to use swear words in this forum?

OK pretend I am

that looks bad for NYC too, worse than the other track.

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Quoting Jedkins01:
People would be surprised to find that direct hurricane strikes in the northeast area are more common than in the Tampa Bay area :)

Well, not quite. But they're closer than one might imagine:

Click for larger image:

canes
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Quoting Patrap:
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


quite a hot tower on that visible! intensification imminent as that thing wraps around..
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NASA catches Black hole eating a star for the first time.. very cool..
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44273287/ns/technolog y_and_science-space/?ocid=twitter
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Quoting kshipre1:
Levi,

looking at this storm from a micro perspective, do you think the damage or potential of could be more in the Jersey/NYC area or southern new england?

I ask because my uncle and his family live only half an hour outside the city


I have no idea because I don't live there. I am unfamiliar with the details of the infrastructure along the eastern seaboard. Needless to say, damage will be extensive no matter how the storm moves up in the mid-Atlantic and New England area. The entire region is extremely densely populated.
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Quoting Levi32:
Remember what I said yesterday about how bad this storm could be. This from the HPC:

THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL.

Link

It doesn't get much more serious than that folks. Even the government agencies are starting to use very strong language here, and they are absolutely justified in doing so.


The bold sounds apocalyptic.
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450. jpsb
Quoting NUChickens:


Just reposting this because it ended up on the last page... any suggestions? Thanks!
Flying debris is what breaks windows mostly. Looks around an access the chances of something flying at your windows. If the chances are small, skip boarding up, if the chances are good board up.
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Quoting SoMDWX:
I am in Southern Maryland. I wonder what the winds will be like here? Also what will the surge in the upper bay be like if it gets here as a Cat 2.


See Dr. Masters post at the start of the blog.
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Eastern North Carolina has alot of water on the west side of the outer banks,so don't forget you can get storm surge from the soundside flooding also!
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Quoting ncstorm:
12Z NOGAPS..brings it right over wilmington

Link

Then it develops another little something in the GOM and moves it into TX...hmm...
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Quoting SoMDWX:
I am in Southern Maryland. I wonder what the winds will be like here? Also what will the surge in the upper bay be like if it gets here as a Cat 2.



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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.