Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

Share this Blog
48
+

Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 545 - 495

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Quoting presslord:


read the Portlight blog...


glad to know yall are on the job!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14258
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Again, I'll say it. Here on Cape Cod we have no where to evacuate too, unless we head out to Cleveland. Depending on the where this storm jogs, it's going to be iffy all the way. If it's to our West, we're going to get the worst of the wind, if it's dead on, we'll get the wind and the surge.

I've looked at the worst case scenario storm surge maps, and where I am is pretty much in the clear. I'm 2.5 miles from the beach, and 100 ft above sea level. 1/2 mile closer, different story.

Regardless, evacuating to the West is darn-right silly at this point. And we have to work. Employers aren't going to listen to, "I have get my family out of here" until it's official, and by then it's usually too late. With our luck, we'll get stuck on the bridge during the worst of it, and the bridge will go down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


it was the psychic twins..and they were predicting it for the fall but seeing that we are almost at septemeber, i think they got it spot on..they were on the VIEW when they stated this..I wonder if the NHC is consulting with them..they should


Fall doesn't start for another month, so another big fat ZERO for "psychic" hucksters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I noticed how people are just skipping over the bahamas and SC/NC and just jumping on the northeast..there will be greater impact before it even hit the great city of NY..


Your so right,I'm up here in Mass. and get the feeling you guys are going to take one on the chin for us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In all likelihood, projections for a Cat 2 in NYC is good, but understand that winds on the skyscrapers will be higher, Cat 3 strength.
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hopefully that is the case. The more East the better.


Seems like all the forecasters are adament that this storm will not miss the US. Both Masters and Levi are unequivocal on that....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
538. GoWVU
Quoting nash28:
One quick note...

Even though Irene is not going to be making a direct landfall in Charleston, SC she is such a large and expansive hurricane. You can bet effects will be felt here. Some pretty robust outer bands with this system which will increase our chances of severe wx and tornadic activity.


When should we start feeling them here in Charleston? How much farther west can she go before it will really start getting ugly for us?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I noticed how people are just skipping over the bahamas and NC and just jumping on the northeast..there will be greater impact before it even hit the great city of NY..


TWC has an office there now since they were taken over by NBC.

What would we do without "Wake Up with Al" ?!?!?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BLOG UPDATE:

Hurricane Irene Video Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Irene has moved past 77 long and still moving nw. Wilmington, NC is at 77.9 if i am not mistaken
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Irene's eye wobbles west! Look out FL! jk lol

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nash28:
One quick note...

Even though Irene is not going to be making a direct landfall in Charleston, SC she is such a large and expansive hurricane. You can bet effects will be felt here. Some pretty robust outer bands with this system which will increase our chances of severe wx and tornadic activity.


I agree..you guys stay safe down there in Charleston..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14258
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Check out that HUGE feeder band forming just off Miami!

When the dry area between that and the center of convection fill in durring dur min tonight we'll have an annular CAT4 hurricane on our hands with a nice clear eye.

another ewrc?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Also, could Irene weaken somewhat quickly after making the NC landfall? Just curious...


Waters north of there are below the threshold needed for a hurricane to form. But Irene is big and will be moving quickly, so probably won't slow down much. Cat 2 at Long Island quite possible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxobsvps:
HWRF 12Z



Shift to the east a bit?


Hopefully that is the case. The more East the better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I noticed how people are just skipping over the bahamas and NC and just jumping on the northeast..there will be greater impact before it even hit the great city of NY..


read the Portlight blog...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
I have been warning on this page last few days...

PLEASE TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS NOW...we could see a major disaster...we need this storm to make landfall and stay west so it will weaken.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Unfortunately this one has its eyes set on land.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Brock31:


I know what you mean.

Now that I am a homeowner, hurricanes are not nearly as "cool" as they used to be.

I keep saying, we've dodged alot of bullets....I'm really trying to stay cool..you know..see what happens....but, beleive me I know how bad it sucks to sit throught the weeks of hurricane aftermath.

It was fun then....not so much now.


Lowes here in Wilmington got a shipment of Generators on tuesday..they sold out before the stored closed down that night..can you imagine the scrambling now since the track shifted west..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14258
Quoting nash28:
Hey Press-

Where's the party gonna be???

LOL! Like I need an excuse to tip a few back.


my place at Folly...and I've heard about you: YOU'RE gonna have to bring your own booze...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
One quick note...

Even though Irene is not going to be making a direct landfall in Charleston, SC she is such a large and expansive hurricane. You can bet effects will be felt here. Some pretty robust outer bands with this system which will increase our chances of severe wx and tornadic activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miss Piggy is almost to the eye. Should be interesting.

BTW... whoever posted that pic of the squall affecting Boca, thanks! Awesome shot from the EVS site!!!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
Quoting Patrap:


Ya know.. that dang thing is still coming west...glad its nearly past me.

Newest HH mission 21 is underway and is on its way into the center of circulation. Next update will be close to center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey guys, any damage reports from Eleuthera in the Bahamas? They took a direct hit, and have a relatively big population for the Out Islands of i believe over 8,000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I noticed how people are just skipping over the bahamas and SC/NC and just jumping on the northeast..there will be greater impact before it even hit the great city of NY..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14258
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


Check out that HUGE feeder band forming just off Miami!

When the dry area between that and the center of convection fill in durring dur min tonight we'll have an annular CAT4 hurricane on our hands with a nice clear eye.
The core is getting better defined, and I have a feeling this eye will be larger than the last.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MHCgirl:
Local forecaster here in eastern NC just said he wouldn't rule out Irene as a cat 4 at landfall. Anyone think that's possible?


Sad to say, but yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PTXer:

No offense Press, but you have certainly mellowed out over the years on the blog. (Just sayin')


actually...I take GREAT offense at that ;-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting ncstorm:


I am not feeling the westward trend of the models..its getting too close for comfort..


I know what you mean.

Now that I am a homeowner, hurricanes are not nearly as "cool" as they used to be.

I keep saying, we've dodged alot of bullets....I'm really trying to stay cool..you know..see what happens....but, beleive me I know how bad it sucks to sit throught the weeks of hurricane aftermath.

It was fun then....not so much now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Press-

Where's the party gonna be???

LOL! Like I need an excuse to tip a few back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Check out that HUGE feeder band forming just off Miami!

When the dry area between that and the center of convection fill in durring dur min tonight we'll have an annular CAT4 hurricane on our hands with a nice clear eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Please feel free to post any local info that is official from your areas as getting the word out is always critical.

portlight wunderblog





will have photos soon from Thomas Hudson of it underway
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Gusty winds and light rain here in Lake Worth, Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest HWIND


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10840
People in the northeast need to understand that this is not a typical Noreaster/rainstorm.. This is a large and dangerous Hurricane. Start getting serious, stop ignoring the media and evacuate NOW!! Unfortunately lots of lives will be lost due to the ignorance and pride of the people in the Northeast. NYC may in fact be shut down come this weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you've been watching this board according to many on here, she's been tracking west since Puerto Rico. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MHCgirl:
Local forecaster here in eastern NC just said he wouldn't rule out Irene as a cat 4 at landfall. Anyone think that's possible?


Of course it's possible. Sea temperatures are plenty warm enough to support a cat 4 at N. Carolina, but the NHC is predicting a cat 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


I sense a younger contender snapping at my heels as the Master of the Smart A** comeback...


If so, he learned from the best. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
503. PTXer
Quoting presslord:


I sense a younger contender snapping at my heels as the Master of the Smart A** comeback...

No offense Press, but you have certainly mellowed out over the years on the blog. (Just sayin')
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Please feel free to post any local info that is official from your areas as getting the word out is always critical.

portlight wunderblog



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Also, could Irene weaken somewhat quickly after making the NC landfall? Just curious...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The psychic sisters are full of it. They said that it would be this fall. Last time I checked, it is still summer and will be until September 23. So they were WRONG!
Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
some perspective for ya:

Gaston was a crappy little nothing of a storm which barely scratched us...and there was a point during that when I really wished I'd gone inland with my family...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting lickitysplit:
she's tracking west


Is she actually tracking (moving west) at this time or wobbling around a bit? And if she is moving west wouldn't that change the point of impact?

Please, (before I get blasted for dumb questions)I have said it before....I'm really trying to learn these things and I'm new at this! Also, I think that you guys are great! Thanks for the help & experience that I am gaining from this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My advice to those living in apts and upper floors and can't board up from the outside, have everything (tools, wood, whatever) ready to board up from the inside at least . As the path verifies and you find yourself in true danger, you can put them up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SoMDWX:
I am in Southern Maryland. I wonder what the winds will be like here? Also what will the surge in the upper bay be like if it gets here as a Cat 2.


I dont' know exactly where you are situated in the bay, but I am on the backside (SE side) of Tampa Bay and because I am sort of up against the wall of land at the back side of the bay, I am the MOST susceptible to storm surge. All that water moves into a bay and piles up at the back part. It is the worst place to be if water pushes up into a bay. I am in Evacuation zone A and if this gives you any idea of how water pushes into bays, when Ike went through the gulf, no where near me and headed away from me, we had water over our seawall. That's about a 4 ft rise over our highest tide. Neighbors across the canal, with a lower seawall had 1/2 their yard covered in water!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting E46Pilot:



It's really not that different than the standard airmass thunderstorms we get in the afternoon. The rain drops are not as thick however the amount of rain that falls with each band is very heavy. It last about 10 minutes, and then its calm. Wind gusts I estimate around 35kts
Thanks!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 32

Viewing: 545 - 495

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.