Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting hurricanejunky:


A sphincter says what?


Don't know, repeat what you said......
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is Florida experiencing any TS force winds from the outer rain bands...anyone know?
Yes. I know that southern Brevard county is experiencing sustained winds of 37 or so and gusting upwards of 50.
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I hope your family is safe, just tell them to be prepared

Quoting reedzone:


ya know.. that's interesting cause now the banding is more organized and the core is almost around the eye. A Category 4 is very likely. Thanks for the info, I have alot of Family on Long Island so this really concerns me.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
Western Long Island here...anybody see the 2 PM model runs yet? The 8 AM runs seem to have Irene moving further west of Long Island...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


So using your theory.. and disregarding any track beyond three days is basically an educated guess. They would deflect a Cat 3 storm from Florida... run it over the banks as a Cat 4.. and into NYC as a Cat 2/3.

Ok, that makes sense... if population control is your agenda?


I don't have a theory.

I was asking if this storm track has behaved in an unusual way, at all. I don't create a theory without having the facts. I came to you for facts. Did the storm behave anomalously.

Apparently, not. Thank you for the response. i got my answer, for which I thank you despite the tone with which it was delivered. Good luck to you.
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Nor'easters Do have surge too people, an 8-10 foot surge swamped areas in Plymouth county last December.
with hurricane and Strong Tropical storm force susutained winds.
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Next in line:

NORTH CAROLINA. This is not a hurricane this is an animal i hope all you guys up in the Carolina's are preparing for this monster god bless you all and stay safe. the same goes for Virginia, Delaware, new Jersey and New York City. I just can't imagining a major hurricane hitting New York City and looking at the models that's what it seems that will happens.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
GFS 12Z T=384

Comming next... GOMEX

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Quoting SCwannabe:
Is Florida experiencing any TS force winds from the outer rain bands...anyone know?


The barrier islands probably are in gusts. My highest gust has been 34mph and I'm 10 miles from the beach.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


no going with people. may get a rental car. pvt message me.


Sent you a message
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Is Florida experiencing any TS force winds from the outer rain bands...anyone know?
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535
A suggestion for those preparing to ride out Irene. Freeze ice blocks now so that you will have some to either keep your refrigerator and freezer food cold, or to use in a cooler. Use large containers such as big yogurt or cottage cheese containers, half-gallon or gallon milk or water jugs, large Tupperware or Rubbermaid containers, etc. - the bigger, the better - leave some space for expansion. These will last longer than bagged ice or ice cubes. Added benefit is that as they melt, you can drink or cook with the water. Good luck and God bless!
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Wow so good seeing some of the old gang here! Nothing like a big hurricane to unite! lol
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
828. Jax82
She's gettin towards her western edge I think, she probably wont see 78W, lets hope not.
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So far we got 1 good band of rain here in WPB...alittle breezy. She is pretty much due west at at her closest pass to us. Not much different than a rainy day in FL.
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Igg-nition to the north, and now it begins....

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Thaale:
I have encountered a lot of northeasterners over the years (including transplantees down here to Miami) who just don't understand the energies involved. They hear that a hurricane is a system with sustained winds >74 mph and they say, "Oh big deal. Up north we get blizzards and nor'easters with gusts in the 50s and 60s all the time."

There are so many errors packed into thinking like that - confusing sustained winds that can last for hours with (TV-exaggerated) momentary gusts; ignoring the rain and storm surge; the unspoken assumption that at least 75mph means not much more than 75; etc. – that it’s very hard to make progress against that attitude. But then they go through something like Andrew or Wilma and the light bulb clicks on, too late. Not to say that all or even most hurricane neophytes are that blithe, but many are.

And I’m afraid that some northerners, however much they may respect the power of the hurricane in can country, still think subconsciously that it can’t happen to them there. After all, it really hasn’t, not since 1938 for one of this likely magnitude.
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Quoting equipoised:


Please don't do that on my account. That has to hurt.

My question was quite respectful. The storm veered to the East significantly and Florida quickly left the cone of probability when it was once dead center.

I am not advocating the weather manipulation possibility, I'm asking the community if there was anything that might have seemed odd. From your response, I take it that no, this storm has behaved quite naturally. Thank you.


So using your theory.. and disregarding any track beyond three days is basically an educated guess. They would deflect a Cat 3 storm from Florida... run it over the banks as a Cat 4.. and into NYC as a Cat 2/3.

Ok, that makes sense... if population control is your agenda?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Levi32:
72 hours:



GULP :(
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imagine next hr or two hrs see it stepping nw to following the island chain doubt if it will make walkers might see a stall here for alittle like emily
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4594
Hello from the FL. Keys! I've used Wunderground for a few years now, but I am new to the blog. We were thankful Irene took us out of her crosshairs-but feel sorry for the folks on the east coast. Our tourism advisory board said Key Largo MAY see some of Irene's bands. HA! The winds are blowin' pretty good and we just had our first line of rain bands move thru Long Key, and can see more comin on the horizon. I work for a resort "group" who has another resort on Harbour Island (Eleuthera) and apparently they will be taking Irene's full force. We are anxiously awaiting news from them.
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819. dader
Im on eastern LI now visiting and it does seem a little condescending when people on this board say people in NY aren't taking this seriously or are unprepared. People are taking it seriously. Emergency management is on it, public works are out, the police will start evacuations etc. The grocery store and home depot are jammed, etc.

While they may not be experienced with hurricanes they are tough people who are used to tough situations. Meanwhile, many of the posters here come from towns were people are truly helpless without MREs and water and cry if FEMA isn't handing something out to them.
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
I noticed that the 12z GFS develops 3 new tropical cyclones in the 5-7 day period...one in the Gulf, one east of the Antilles, and one south of the CV islands.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
If anybody in the northeast hasn't been in a hurricane well be prepared also i saw couple of years ago a show bu THE WEATHER CHANNEL that was entitled: "IF IT HAPPEND TOMORROW" and they showed an episode on what would it be if a hurricane hit NEW YORK CITY. I guess a city that is well over due would be catastrophic in terms of storm surge all of those subway lines would flood and the high rise building in Manhattan would be dangerous as tall as they are the winds could pick up surrounding then like a wind tunnel.

I JUST KNOW THAT THE NAME "irene" WILL BE RETIRED.
Member Since: August 3, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
Quoting Levi32:


It means the current EWRC which has been in progress since yesterday afternoon is nearing completion.


ya know.. that's interesting cause now the banding is more organized and the core is almost around the eye. A Category 4 is very likely. Thanks for the info, I have alot of Family on Long Island so this really concerns me.
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72 hours:

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Quoting reedzone:
Hard to believe this.. After a swipe across the Outer Banks, Irene is still a 933 mlb. Category 4 storm heading towards.. umm.. NYC :/

96 hours.


EURO is east of it's last run.. Makes sense though, the weakness tugs her NNE for a couple hours then due north as the ridge in the Atlantic strengthens.


That would make sense IF the weakness were there...
The upper levels may change on a dime, but as of now, the trough is nowhere near as amplified as predicted and as you have seen with the steering maps, the ATL ridge is hanging on.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
i think when are storm moves a way from land in the Bahamas and move in too open water a way from land we could really see this take off but i think right now the land in the Bahamas is hurting it a little
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I think she just wobbled west again...


can you post a link? I want to watch what you're watching - thanks!
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Irene likely has until around 30N-31N or so to get her core together and strengthen. If she is still about the same intensity-wise by then, she most likely won't get any stronger as shear should be on the increase at that time, along with the entrainment of continental air.



Still has to cross Gulf Stream though....
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Quoting mbjjm:
Joe Bastardi Forecasts Irene To Be A Top Mid Atlantic Hurricane
Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts Irene to be a cross between Hazel and the Mid Atlantic Hurricane of 1821. This will make Irene a top three hurricane since 1800.


A sphincter says what?
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TD10 pressure down a notch to 1009; winds still 30 knots:

AL, 10, 2011082518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 321W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 270, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,
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Quoting Levi32:


It means the current EWRC which has been in progress since yesterday afternoon is nearing completion.


mail...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Orcasystems:




Please don't do that on my account. That has to hurt.

My question was quite respectful. The storm veered to the East significantly and Florida quickly left the cone of probability when it was once dead center.

I am not advocating the weather manipulation possibility, I'm asking the community if there was anything that might have seemed odd. From your response, I take it that no, this storm has behaved quite naturally. Thank you.
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Quoting Alockwr21:


HEY! I'm in Raleigh and was looking for someone to chase with me. Are you going alone?


no going with people. may get a rental car. pvt message me.
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first time long time, since katrina. love learning all this meteorology.

i am in manhattan, uptown. i am generally prepared for disaster (water, food, propane grill, batteries, go bag). planning on riding this out, as i am by myself (no family here), i can handle the aftermath, plan on helping others.

i'll make a run this afternoon, gas up the car, buy a bunch of ice, fruits and veggies. and a hatchet and a crowbar. the things you don't consider when you are an apartment dweller.

but folks are not concerned. typical new york response. worse because us native californians have called them all kinds of whiny whimps for their earthquake reactions tuesday.

(i just wanted to post something, so i can show off my meatwad avatar. he looks like a TC!)
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Funk is showing a little green. She's big and ugly. Still surprised she hasn't wrapped up her core better at this pressure. Will be interesting to see what we wake up with tomorrow morning.
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Quoting P451:


14" of rain is going to do some pretty bad things. Keep in mind we've been getting hit rather hard with some large quick hitting rain events up here.

Instant flooding will occur as there is no where for the rain to go at this point. Rivers and streams are still very high or at their limits from the last week of storms.

And we're getting it today again as well.



Yeaaaaaaaa. I'd say the subway system is going under...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Orcasystems:




the HAARP waves make him do that
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
I have encountered a lot of northeasterners over the years (including transplantees down here to Miami) who just don't understand the energies involved. They hear that a hurricane is a system with sustained winds >74 mph and they say, "Oh big deal. Up north we get blizzards and nor'easters with gusts in the 50s and 60s all the time."

There are so many errors packed into thinking like that - confusing sustained winds that can last for hours with (TV-exaggerated) momentary gusts; ignoring the rain and storm surge; the unspoken assumption that at least 75mph means not much more than 75; etc. – that it’s very hard to make progress against that attitude. But then they go through something like Andrew or Wilma and the light bulb clicks on, too late. Not to say that all or even most hurricane neophytes are that blithe, but many are.

And I’m afraid that some northerners, however much they may respect the power of the hurricane in can country, still think subconsciously that it can’t happen to them there. After all, it really hasn’t, not since 1938 for one of this likely magnitude.
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I agree with Grothar and have been doing the same thing, having people who have family up in that area call them to let them know this is not just an ordinary storm.

Hopefully the word will get out.
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796. DFWjc
Quoting Orcasystems:




Orca, remember your blood pressure meds, okay...
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Quoting reedzone:


Does that mean another EWRC?


It means the current EWRC which has been in progress since yesterday afternoon is nearing completion.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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