Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

Share this Blog
48
+

Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 945 - 895

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Please, has anyone heard from Caicos Retired Sailor or Baha? Worried for them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting BobinTampa:



Just out of curiousity, if one was not taking the storm seriously yet, do you think they'd do so because of you?

Only a moron or an idiot would be dumb enough to believe that.


I don't know, but maybe if many others join the warning would get louder. If there's a fire in your home, you are sleeping and I see it. Wouldnt you perhaps appreciate it a bit if I sort of woke you up somehow so you could get out of the way of the fire? Well as worthless and insignificant I might be to you, maybe someone would be tickled enough to at least consider following the warnings issued to them by the authorities, and if that serve to save at least one life then that is a good thing, So call me dumb or moron, what the heck call me an a..hole, but I will keep giving warning. If it bothers you you can always poof me your decision.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FtMyersBuc:
This is from about an 1 1/2 hours ago in Fort Myers:



It has been consistently breezy from the north for most of the day, but no gusts.


And ridiculously warm and humid...can't get cool today!
Downtown the humidity is oppressive
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I was hoping everyone would get the humor...actually looks like she may be making that northward turn according to Miami radar...



I definitely got the humor lol I let out a laugh when I read it. Good play good play
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Quoting rattnroll:

Great Pic!


What up Ratt? Long time no see...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (FLAG)
MARK
27.00n/78.00w forecast point
come about n by ne





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Most who talk like dat have serious NOLA issues,

And that's unfortunate.

Cuz were a nice City who embrace the world daily.

Even you and others who have never graced us with your presence.

And on Fat Tuesday,,it just Tues in your City.

..and datz all Im gonna say to that.





who dat?
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
935. PTXer
Quoting presslord:


Certainly not!! Ya gotta have at least a 1/2 gallon of bourbon, as well...


Just reading in the book Sugar a history of sugar and sugar cane, that rum, made from a by product of sugar refining, was used to "purify" water on the slave trading ships back in the day. Put that in your recycled milk jugs!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current view from Sebastian Inlet, FL: (click on link)

Link


Also, to the person who posted (extreme236) that in the next 5-7 days, three tropical systems, one in the Gulf and two in the Atlantic... 384 hrs is 16 days, not 5-7... And based on that frame at 384 hrs, there is a sharp trof over MN stretching SWD into the central plains, if this pans out, that tropical system will end up in... no where else than FL. Why do all of these models seem to develop something and head them towards FL? Really. One would think there is some sort of historical bias in the models as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
recon going for other center pass
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SCwannabe:


I thought they said you weren't going to experience anything at all


Irene wobbled more left this morning so the s. east coast of florida is getting more than we planned for, vero is getting ready for another round of bands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dader:


A good site to view the latest model runs is the South Florida Water Management District Hurricane Models-- you can google it. They do leave out some of the models there however. But its a good idea of what the models are thinking- they are pretty tightly clustered.


Ah yes, I remember this site now. Thank you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I was hoping everyone would get the humor...actually looks like she may be making that northward turn according to Miami radar...

i dont see the turn
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
929. Vero1
..Irene flays Bahamas as North Carolina watches, NY waits
By Neil Hartnell | Reuters – 1 hr 55 mins ago..

..........Weather Underground private forecaster Rob Carver wrote, "I think that there is a 75 percent chance Irene's secondary landfall will be somewhere between (New York's) JFK airport and Cape Cod ... Irene's size will cause significant impacts for people living far from its center.".................


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Certainly not!! Ya gotta have at least a 1/2 gallon of bourbon, as well...


Duly noted!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Im in Central Connecticut. Anything larger than 12 oz bottles of water are gone. and I can't find a D battery to save my life. I called my Mom on Long Island and she was unaware..the news is really downplaying it down there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CJ5:


Well that is probably what you are going to face so I do hope some are taking it serious. There are millions of people in NYC...we are not talking about a New Orleans.


Most who talk like dat have serious NOLA issues,

And that's unfortunate.

Cuz were a nice City who embrace the world daily.

Even you and others who have never graced us with your presence.

And on Fat Tuesday,,it just Tues in your City.

..and datz all Im gonna say to that.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Vero1:
Currently in Vero Beach...NE 26mph Gust 32mph highest 44 and hr ago


I thought they said you weren't going to experience anything at all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Forgive those who live south. They seem to think only they know what a hurricane is. They seem to believe only they receive storms that threaten high winds and rising tides.

Imagine them in a true nor'easter?

"You mean it's a hurricane but it's snow? What? What do we do? Do we just sit here and die? What do you do with three feet of snow? Does it run off into the rivers and go away?"

lol...

been thru a NOREASTER...went thru the one in 1978... and then went thru HUGO...will say this...i will take a noreaster any day to a cane like this one...the difference is most people up north have basements that dont get as cold as the temps outside so you can at least stay half way warm...next...snow melts a little at a time...last...noreasters dont spawn tornadoes...no one is saying you don't know what is coming...but it has been DECADES since anything even close to this has hit that far north...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Based on that feed the NNW direction looks right...the radar is a little deceiving...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbtvQUYXbQk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting newriverjaxnc:
Hi. I'm "one of those" who only posts when she's in the bullseye, but y'all always give the best advice. I'm in Jacksonville, NC. Not looking so great for us right now, I guess.

I'm thinking of heading to Raleigh if we can't shelter in place. That's far enough inland to avoid the really dangerous bits, right?


yes but still will get rain and some wind. the farther west you go the better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Outflow is increasing in all quadrants, western side is filling in. I think the EWRC may be taking so long just because of the sheer size of Irene...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Irene comes in head on into Long Island or just a tad west, I expect the Atlantic to roll over it
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


No genius, We are just concerned and are trying to warn the folks up there. So you all think a Hurricane is like a noreaster right? Ok Go out on the streets when it hit and let us know here next week how it went for you guys. Only a Moron or an Idiot would be so stupid as to be mean to those who are showing concern for their safety. Mother nature has a rule of eliminating morons and idiots to improve the gene pool it is called natural selection, so I will continue to give warning to those who will listen and the Morons and Idiots well, I gues mother nature is about to take care of them.



Just out of curiousity, if one was not taking the storm seriously yet, do you think they'd do so because of you?

Only a moron or an idiot would be dumb enough to believe that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Abaco Island gets a lot of very high end wind... 16.000 population
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Quoting tpabarb:


can you post a link? I want to watch what you're watching - thanks!


I was hoping everyone would get the humor...actually looks like she may be making that northward turn according to Miami radar...

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
Quoting P451:


Well, there will be disruptions. The subways have a very serious pumping system to handle the constant water problem. However the most concern would be a storm surge that would come into Battery Park and flood right into the subway entrances only a couple 100 feet from the edge of the bay.

That would overwhelm and shut down the pumps and electricity there.

Now what you're talking about is tunnels south of 14th street in Manhattan flooding and taking out service for likely months.

The rain itself will flood and pool and several lines will be interrupted but that can be handled within a couple days time at most.

We just had training thunderstorms that dumped 8-11 inches of rain on the city earlier this week. Things were okay except for some service disruption.



I am sorry for being rough on you in my original answer...

but no, the storm is not really behaving oddly. I know this seems like a shallow answer, but there really is no such thing as "odd behavior" for a hurricane. These things can do almost anything. If you take a look at tracks of past hurricanes, you will see many that did much weirder things.

Also, if you take a look at the forecast tracks of those storms, you will see the models actually did relatively well with this storm, compared to the vast majority of hurricanes of past years.

But odd behavior? Not really. This system has actually been fairly routine, with the exception of it not being expected to turn away from the coast at higher latitudes. The odds of a hurricane in its current position eventually making landfall in the northeast is 9%. So in that respect, what we will see is rather unusual. But what we have seen up to this point... not unusual at all in both the aspects of intensity and track.
Member Since: November 17, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
Quoting Patrap:
TD 10 12Z Statistical Models





You know, I genuinely almost said 'Big shift west' before I realised that that was XTRP...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
913. CJ5
Quoting dader:
Im on eastern LI now visiting and it does seem a little condescending when people on this board say people in NY aren't taking this seriously or are unprepared. People are taking it seriously. Emergency management is on it, public works are out, the police will start evacuations etc. The grocery store and home depot are jammed, etc.

While they may not be experienced with hurricanes they are tough people who are used to tough situations. Meanwhile, many of the posters here come from towns were people are truly helpless without MREs and water and cry if FEMA isn't handing something out to them.


Well that is probably what you are going to face so I do hope some are taking it serious. There are millions of people in NYC...we are not talking about a New Orleans.
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Hi. I'm "one of those" who only posts when she's in the bullseye, but y'all always give the best advice. I'm in Jacksonville, NC. Not looking so great for us right now, I guess.

I'm thinking of heading to Raleigh if we can't shelter in place. That's far enough inland to avoid the really dangerous bits, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Excited heading to New Bern, NC area to chase this hurricane. Leaving Greensboro, NC tmrw aft.


thats not chasing it,thats in it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
Currently in Vero Beach...NE 26mph Gust 32mph highest 44 and hr ago


Viera, FL (just north of Melbourne) Winds 25 to 30 w/gust to 35. 1st outer band shoudl be here within the hour and that should change those numbers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
908. Vero1
Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm guessing that, even if Irene recurves out to sea, the name will be retired due to the damage in the Bahamas.

and the Billionaire house
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Certainly not!! Ya gotta have at least a 1/2 gallon of bourbon, as well...


well Press I am not a drinker but if I have to go thru one more hurricane I might just start!!!!! hahahaha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Forgive those who live south. They seem to think only they know what a hurricane is. They seem to believe only they receive storms that threaten high winds and rising tides.

Imagine them in a true nor'easter?

"You mean it's a hurricane but it's snow? What? What do we do? Do we just sit here and die? What do you do with three feet of snow? Does it run off into the rivers and go away?"

lol...


No genius, We are just concerned and are trying to warn the folks up there. So you all think a Hurricane is like a noreaster right? Ok Go out on the streets when it hit and let us know here next week how it went for you guys. Only a Moron or an Idiot would be so stupid as to be mean to those who are showing concern for their safety. Mother nature has a rule of eliminating morons and idiots to improve the gene pool it is called natural selection, so I will continue to give warning to those who will listen and the Morons and Idiots well, I gues mother nature is about to take care of them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SCwannabe:


bad idea-no induction without labor. I'm an NNP. Don't do that.


she is already over due...that is the problem...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Irene is a massive storm. TS force winds already extend almost 300 miles from the centre, and by the time it reaches the northeast US, that could be 400 or 500 miles. Even if Irene stays west of Long Island, she will be close enough to cause flooding and a serious storm surge along with hefty winds. Don't take too much from the exact model tracks - Irene is going to have a big effect on the whole New England area.


By the time we know the track on Saturday its going to be too late to get out of Long Island......with the Throgs Neck, Verrazano Narrow, and Bronx Whitestone being the main routes out of town. Senior citizens on southern LI need to start getting ready tommorow,,,,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gugi182:
will the name IRENE be retired?

a. YES
b. NO



a
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This westward shifting bodes ill for us Hampton Roads residents...wondering if this might wind up topping Isabel, guess time will tell. As prepared as can be here in Yorktown, Virginia...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z TVCN has shifted west slightly again - this time bringing Irene over land in SE NC - then taking her over water briefly for a second landfall in Maryland (about 100 miles east of DC).

We'll see if this trend continues...

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This aint just another Nor Easter, this is a hurricane from the deep tropics and this is a whole nudda animal all together. She will be bigger up north than she is now, and the NE will be in for a rude awakening, plain and simple
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Blowing in Vero on the island and looks really gray over the ocean I think we are in for another round... oh boy my yard is a mess already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:
If anyone learned anything from Katrina - it is the govt will not be there to help you!! Get prepared and then over prepare - one box of crackers and six diet cokes and a bottle of water is not enough. Geez!


Certainly not!! Ya gotta have at least a 1/2 gallon of bourbon, as well...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting dader:
Im on eastern LI now visiting and it does seem a little condescending when people on this board say people in NY aren't taking this seriously or are unprepared. People are taking it seriously. Emergency management is on it, public works are out, the police will start evacuations etc. The grocery store and home depot are jammed, etc.

While they may not be experienced with hurricanes they are tough people who are used to tough situations. Meanwhile, many of the posters here come from towns were people are truly helpless without MREs and water and cry if FEMA isn't handing something out to them.

the comments that were made were in direct reference to people that were actually called as they have family in other places that are worried...actual responses were that of ... oh, ive been thru a noreaster, i can handle it...another was...you really think it will get this far?...and another was...oh, they fizzle out and we just get some wind and rain... we know that NOT everyone is taking it like that but there are the ones that are...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
in other news the forcast for typhoon nanmadol couldnt be more wrong forcast to head north but still treckign est check out the sattilite and the forecast http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp20 1114_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 945 - 895

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
35 °F
Scattered Clouds

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron