Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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Did she finish her W wobble?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
So whats the weather like in alaska?
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AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 24 305N 780W


ummmm...i really don't like those numbers please
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting TBird78:
We had NO warning!

I can't wait to see these headlines!


They should read:

WE WEREN'T LISTENING!
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Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
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Irene had been juxtaposed with that upper low over the Gulf all morning. Now that Irene is moving north and that upper low is diving southwest we should see that 10-15 kt shearing wind slacken and Irene will make its next round of intensification which should bring it close to or into category four threshold.
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Quoting extreme236:
I noticed that the 12z GFS develops 3 new tropical cyclones in the 5-7 day period...one in the Gulf, one east of the Antilles, and one south of the CV islands.


Can someone post the link to see this model. Stay safe.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


What about Sanford NC?
well, according to NHC... you got 50% chance of tropical storm winds, 20%-30% chance of 50 kts winds, and 10% chance of hurricane winds.
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New microwave shows the open areas in between feeder bands shrinking. The new bursts of convection will fill them completely and Irene will look almost annular. Interesting that the new eye will be about the same size or smaller than the old one.
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bluestorn what is the percentage for Fayetteville, NC?
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Somebody started a thread about the storm on the New York Islanders hockey forum. It is called "What Would Happen? Hurricane Irene".
http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=972999

Interesting to see some hockey fans keeping a close eye on this thing. One of the posters even linked to some YouTube videos. One was part of the History Channel show Mega Disasters where NYC was hit by a Cat. 3 hurricane: Pretty sobering to watch.

Seems like some of the guys posting on that thread are starting to take things pretty seriously, but a couple are still 50/50 of it actually hitting them: They are waiting till it passes the NC coast to decide. Sadly, at that point, their won't be a huge amount of time left to decide and evacuate if needed.
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Jeff omitted 1976 Belle. I was in Huntington for it and it was a pretty good blow:

Meteorological history
Storm pathOn July 28, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. It moved quickly across the Atlantic Ocean at speeds up to 23 mph (37 km/h), and slowly organized with a large area of convection with a possible low level circulation as early as July 31. The convection became detached from the wave, and moved northwestward to a position near the Bahamas. As it remained stationary, it developed a circulation and became a tropical depression on August 6. Under weak steering currents, it looped, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Belle early on August 7.[1]

Belle drifted to the west-northwest, and attained hurricane status late on August 7. On the 8th, the storm turned to the north, where conditions favored additional strengthening. Late on the 8th, Belle reached major hurricane status, and early on the 9th, it peaked at 120 mph (190 km/h) while east of Florida. During this time, Hurricane Warnings were posted from Georgia to eventually Maine.[1]

Belle accelerated to the north-northeast and paralleled the United States coastline. After peaking on August 9, the hurricane weakened, possibly due to cooler waters off the North Carolina coast. It continued to parallel the coastline, remaining within 100 miles (160 km) off the coast. Just after midnight on August 10, Belle made landfall on the South Shore of Long Island, NY, near Jones Beach, as a Category-1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a central pressure of 980 mb. It rapidly weakened over land, and became extratropical later that day over New England.[1]

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We had NO warning!

I can't wait to see these headlines!
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Quoting lat25five:
Patrap,

Would you post link to floater.
I am away try to follow all the action on my son's laptop.


Link

If this is what your looking for:)
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Some were mentioning 78W, here are the positions from the consensus model TVCN


AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 0 265N 772W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 12 286N 778W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 24 305N 780W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 36 324N 777W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 48 344N 773W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 60 366N 765W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 72 394N 753W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 84 429N 729W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 96 472N 693W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 108 515N 631W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 120 552N 546W
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 132 567N 451W
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Quoting ThisEndUp:
This westward shifting bodes ill for us Hampton Roads residents...wondering if this might wind up topping Isabel, guess time will tell. As prepared as can be here in Yorktown, Virginia...


I have a feeling we're going to get hammered here in Va. Beach...during Isabel the wind was'nt even hurricane strength and look at the damage. And thats not counting tidal flooding or storm surge..I really feel bad for the folks in Sandbridge too. And our neighbors to the south and north too.
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977. P451
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


You should probably double or even tripple the size of each of those wind fields/possibilities, since this storm is going to have a much larger wind field than any of those storms did.


The wind field situation is a bit overstated in the NYC scenario. There will always be a sharp gradient on the western side of the storm up here. Especially once you factor in the increasing forward motion and the organization of the system after it has digested all that continental air and interacted with land.

Those on the eastern side of the storm will see a much broader windfield.

My graphic is what NYC would expect to see - no one else. Since we will be on the western side it's going to be a tight gradient between TS and Hurricane force winds.

If we are on the Eastern side of the system that would mean it went inland and stayed inland for a long trek up from the south. By then the winds would be those of any other decaying TS that made that trek.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting Bluestorm5:
according to NHC, Clayton got 70% chance of tropical storm winds and Raleigh got 60% chance of tropical storm winds. For 50 knots, Clayton got 40-50% chance. Raleigh got 30-40%. For hurricane force, both Raleigh and Clayton got 10% chance.


What about Sanford NC?
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Quoting BobinTampa:


You're on a tropical weather blog. Anybody who cares enough about the tropics enough to be here is aware of the danger. You're preaching to the choir. And this hurricane will be the subject of 24/7 media coverage beginning tonight or tomorrow if it hasn't already. Nobody will have the 'I didn't know' excuse.


actually, there are people on these blogs called TROLLS...those are people who wishcast, fishcast or say it isn't so...then people who want to know don't take it seriously...then they get hurt...not everyone is here to learn and do good...there are bad people EVERYWHERE...if you are not familiar with the people on any blog, you don't know who to trust...just say you trusted the WRONG ONE
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting P451:


No, genius, you think folks up north are idiots. Just as this post echoes.

We know what we're doing.

What's hilarious is the supposed all-knowing of those in the south yet when a hurricane hits none of them were prepared for it.

Explain that before hacking on those of us up north as if we don't know what a storm is and you guys are experts.

Think before you type next time.





Ok then good luck and good bye. I'll still pray for you guys up there.
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Best advice to anyone in the path of Irene: Don't watch the Weather Channel. Pay attention to your local emergency managment officials and NWS. TWC folks are a bunch of drama queens/kings looking scare people and increase their ratings. Take the storm serious but don't panic like they want you too. Make a plan and have your supplies ready or better yet- take a trip inland for the weekend.


as much as I am unsatisfied with TWC 90% of the time, their hurricane coverage is usually quite good. The effects of John Hopes presence before his death are still obvious when it comes to TWC's hurricane coverage.

But what you don't want to do is watch CNN, MSNBC, and especially Fox News for weather/local emergency info.

The very best thing anyone can do, from a forecast standpoint, is watch all of the models and make your own assessment on what will happen. Generally I look at where the models converge the most. In the case that there is no convergence, I look at an average between the more reliable models. Reading the technical discussions at the NOAA (weather.gov) hurricane page for irene, and your local technical discussions found in links when you enter your zip code to look at your local weather.... is usually a very helpful thing to do as well.

For evacuation plans and whatnot you want to look at your local news stations, websites, and listen to the local officials.
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according to NHC, Clayton got 70% chance of tropical storm winds and Raleigh got 60% chance of tropical storm winds. For 50 knots, Clayton got 40-50% chance. Raleigh got 30-40%. For hurricane force, both Raleigh and Clayton got 10% chance.
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What do you do with three feet of snow?

Snowmobile!!!
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Quoting Patrap:


Most who talk like dat have serious NOLA issues,

And that's unfortunate.

Cuz were a nice City who embrace the world daily.

Even you and others who have never graced us with your presence.

And on Fat Tuesday,,it just Tues in your City.

..and datz all Im gonna say to that.





You tell em' Pat.
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Patrap,

Would you post link to floater.
I am away try to follow all the action on my son's laptop.
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Quoting charlottefl:
Outflow is increasing in all quadrants, western side is filling in. I think the EWRC may be taking so long just because of the sheer size of Irene...


May also be dry air/shear? The South/Southwest portion of the storm looked truncated this morning. Looking better now though...
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Quoting BobinTampa:


You're on a tropical weather blog. Anybody who cares enough about the tropics enough to be here is aware of the danger. You're preaching to the choir. And this hurricane will be the subject of 24/7 media coverage beginning tonight or tomorrow if it hasn't already. Nobody will have the 'I didn't know' excuse.


snort...wanna bet we hear it?
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
Quoting TropicalXprt:


That's awesome!!
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Can someone post the link again for the page to look up expected storm surge. thank you
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Best advice to anyone in the path of Irene: Don't watch the Weather Channel. Pay attention to your local emergency managment officials and NWS. TWC folks are a bunch of drama queens/kings looking scare people and increase their ratings. Take the storm serious but don't panic like they want you too. Make a plan and have your supplies ready or better yet- take a trip inland for the weekend.
and DO NOT USE THE BLOG FOR LIFECHANGING ACTIONS. Leave that to local gov. officals.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I don't know, but maybe if many others join the warning would get louder. If there's a fire in your home, you are sleeping and I see it. Wouldnt you perhaps appreciate it a bit if I sort of woke you up somehow so you could get out of the way of the fire? Well as worthless and insignificant I might be to you, maybe someone would be tickled enough to at least consider following the warnings issued to them by the authorities, and if that serve to save at least one life then that is a good thing, So call me dumb or moron, what the heck call me an a..hole, but I will keep giving warning. If it bothers you you can always poof me your decision.


You're on a tropical weather blog. Anybody who cares enough about the tropics enough to be here is aware of the danger. You're preaching to the choir. And this hurricane will be the subject of 24/7 media coverage beginning tonight or tomorrow if it hasn't already. Nobody will have the 'I didn't know' excuse.
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Quoting P451:
The way I see it... there is no forecasting this storm for New York until it reaches NC.

And then? You have the task of figuring out what it's going to do from there. Hopefully the track will be steady by then and easier to extrapolate.



When you get to this region a small shift means an awful lot of difference in the conditions we would receive.

Will it be a Floyd/Hanna rain event? (Inland Yellow/Orange)
Will it be a Gloria? (Red Track)
Will it be like Bob? (Ocean going Orange)
Will it be like Earl? (Out to sea Yellow)

Notice there is very little difference in the tracks from NC that creates this wide possibility for NYC.

Right now the red is where the models and NHC are lined up.

Note how little of a shift it takes to drastically change the weather in a pinpoint spot such as NYC.



You should probably double or even tripple the size of each of those wind fields/possibilities, since this storm is going to have a much larger wind field than any of those storms did. If your area is currently forecast to get hurricane winds, it will take a much larger-than-normal deviation in track to take you out of the path of those winds. Particularly if Irene stays off the coast until it reaches these destinations.
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Quoting presslord:


heard from CRS yesterday afternoon....no power, etc...but he was OK...been tryin' to raise BaHA all day to no avail...

Thank you!
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Quoting miajrz:
Please, has anyone heard from Caicos Retired Sailor or Baha? Worried for them.

Last thing I saw about CRS was last night. He was powerless but okay. Didn't catch anything on Baha.
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Quoting miajrz:
Please, has anyone heard from Caicos Retired Sailor or Baha? Worried for them.
no but there alright may have no power some damage but they should be ok
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Quoting P451:
The way I see it... there is no forecasting this storm for New York until it reaches NC.

And then? You have the task of figuring out what it's going to do from there. Hopefully the track will be steady by then and easier to extrapolate.



When you get to this region a small shift means an awful lot of difference in the conditions we would receive.

Will it be a Floyd/Hanna rain event? (Inland Yellow/Orange)
Will it be a Gloria? (Red Track)
Will it be like Bob? (Ocean going Orange)
Will it be like Earl? (Out to sea Yellow)

Notice there is very little difference in the tracks from NC that creates this wide possibility for NYC.

Right now the red is where the models and NHC are lined up.

Note how little of a shift it takes to drastically change the weather in a pinpoint spot such as NYC.



Problem is, too late to move at that point, really.

Can only hunker down where you are.
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Best advice to anyone in the path of Irene: Don't watch the Weather Channel. Pay attention to your local emergency managment officials and NWS. TWC folks are a bunch of drama queens/kings looking scare people and increase their ratings. Take the storm serious but don't panic like they want you too. Make a plan and have your supplies ready or better yet- take a trip inland for the weekend.
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is Irene building her CDO again? looks like it is half covering the eye
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home from school... what's the forecast for Clayton now? Eastern half of Johnston is one of dozens counties to be declared state of emergengy. I'm only few miles from I-95 aka borderline for state of emergengy.
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Quoting newenglader:
Im in Central Connecticut. Anything larger than 12 oz bottles of water are gone. and I can't find a D battery to save my life. I called my Mom on Long Island and she was unaware..the news is really downplaying it down there.


I texted friends in DC. One lives in Arlington. He asked me why I was worked up as they were expecting nothing more than a few inches of rain and some breezy conditions.

Unreal.
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Quoting newenglader:
Im in Central Connecticut. Anything larger than 12 oz bottles of water are gone. and I can't find a D battery to save my life. I called my Mom on Long Island and she was unaware..the news is really downplaying it down there.


I live in Naugatuck CT, and have been monitoring both CT and NY news channels. Trust me, the NY stations are NOT downplaying it. In fact most of them covered Irene for 75% of their broadcasts last night. Perhaps your mom just isn't paying much attention, no offense.
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Quoting miajrz:
Please, has anyone heard from Caicos Retired Sailor or Baha? Worried for them.


heard from CRS yesterday afternoon....no power, etc...but he was OK...been tryin' to raise BaHA all day to no avail...
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a little better organized I see. Convection on the south side expanding somewhat and CDO a little colder.
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947. P451
The way I see it... there is no forecasting this storm for New York until it reaches NC.

And then? You have the task of figuring out what it's going to do from there. Hopefully the track will be steady by then and easier to extrapolate.



When you get to this region a small shift means an awful lot of difference in the conditions we would receive.

Will it be a Floyd/Hanna rain event? (Inland Yellow/Orange)
Will it be a Gloria? (Red Track)
Will it be like Bob? (Ocean going Orange)
Will it be like Earl? (Out to sea Yellow)

Notice there is very little difference in the tracks from NC that creates this wide possibility for NYC.

Right now the red is where the models and NHC are lined up.

Note how little of a shift it takes to drastically change the weather in a pinpoint spot such as NYC.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Opinions as things stand right now would be appreciated.

Manhattan or Eastern LI to ride it out?

Neither location is in an evac zone.

I'm thinking LI, as it stands.

Other opinions?
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Please, has anyone heard from Caicos Retired Sailor or Baha? Worried for them.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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