Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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1045. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1044. TPaul
Quoting P451:


Yeah people are rather blaise about it. I've told a few people that it's coming but we cannot pinpoint a forecast until Saturday AM.

This is very true as we need to see the storm hit NC and see how it responds from there. Only then can you accurately predict a hurricane's path towards NYC.

It could be a Floyd scenario for us up here. It could be a Gloria. Or it could be a Bob.

And there were huge differences between the three. So difficult to predict a pinpoint landfall this far north more than 24 hours out.

As of this early afternoon it would appear Irene is now on a steadier course and seems it is out of any steering influence the islands can have to her core.

Now the question is where does it landfall in NC. From there you predict what the upper mid-atlantic and new england can expect. No sooner.
I am a long time lurker on here, but only occasionally feel the need to say something, but your first sentence just blows my mind.  "Pinpoint a forecast", this isn't a 500 pound bomb, its a nuke, it doesn't matter if this storm varies 100 miles East or West of a direct hit on New York, it will be the weather story of the year in this country and it maybe only second to the Japanese earthquake as far as disasters go for the year for the overall impact it has.  Yes, I know those are bold statements, but there is a significant risk that the loss of life from this storm will be higher then Katrina.  You can certainly bet the name Irene will be retired after this year.  I have already bet one of my co-workers that NYSE will be closed on Monday.  The evacuation of Long Island needed to start today, if people wait to Saturday like you say, its too da** late.
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Now unless there is MAJOR chance in the air and force Irene one more degree to west than forecasted, there is no way Raleigh and Clayton can get hit by hurricane force winds.
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Quoting Zaphod:
Irene is less than 10mb over the typical pressure of a Cat 4, yet winds are more like a Cat 2. Something has to give.


Watch pressures drop with these new bursts of convection your seeing, as the CDO grows and the eye clears out. Then the winds will catch back up.

She is making a turn while performing an ewrc and expanding. The system has not "weakened".
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
They were northern transplants. lol


There were so many people that did not have resources to get out of town and the govt engineers assured them the levies would hold. Don't blame the innocent for mother nature please.
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Quoting ThisEndUp:
This westward shifting bodes ill for us Hampton Roads residents...wondering if this might wind up topping Isabel, guess time will tell. As prepared as can be here in Yorktown, Virginia...


yeah in york county here too, should be a blast:(
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1039. NJ2S
Quoting TropicalXprt:
Check out this picture from PR after the flooding there was a shark swimming around the streets...



Where was that taken?
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1038. bwi
OK, if I'm reading the 12z ECMWF right here are its forecast locations and approx depths. Of course, I realize this is just one model, and the track could change by quite a bit.

Sat 18z pressure 920s about 50 miles SSE of Jacksonville NC and about 40 or so miles SSW of Morehead City. Heading NNE

Sunday 3z about 50 miles NNE of Morehead City

Sunday 9z 940s over VA Beach

Sunday 15z 950s near Ocean City MD

Tracking toward a point inland about 20 or 30 miles or so east of Atlantic City NJ
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1037. Zeec94
Quoting tampahurricane:
Hey guys me and a friend of mine are thinking about going to chase the storm, I have some experience in this. We live in the Tampa area, we were thinking about going on the coast of NC. Does anyone have any suggestions on were we should set up camp? I was thing about a city called Morehead city, but not sure about the elevation there.


Go to Elizabeth City. That would be better since you avoid the evacuation zone of Moorehead.
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Fresh 12z Japanese model...not looking good for the Eastern Seaboard.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


These better?

AL 09 2011082518 03 H3G2 36 328N 785W


Just kidding, not sure what the H3G2 model is, one of the new research ones.


:P is all imma say
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting mistified:
Anyone still thinking a SC/NC landfall?


I think not quite that far west, but certainly Wilmington area, I still think is a good bet. Nothing as of yet has made me think their won't be at least another small shift west in the official forecast at 5pm. But, I am just getting to some of the updated information now...
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
1033. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting newriverjaxnc:
Hi. I'm "one of those" who only posts when she's in the bullseye, but y'all always give the best advice. I'm in Jacksonville, NC. Not looking so great for us right now, I guess.

I'm thinking of heading to Raleigh if we can't shelter in place. That's far enough inland to avoid the really dangerous bits, right?


It depends on what you want to avoid? Wind, power outrages, floods from rains? Nope.

You would do better to head west to a point where you are completely out of the cone of doom. (Charlotte?) Raleigh was pounded by Fran and Crabtree Creek flooded (of course) and the surrounding rivers. Floyd wasn't awful but the we still had power outages and stream and river flooding.

The storms on the coast are hit and miss as to how much damage they create inland. Floyd's winds were nothing, but the one two punch of TS Dennis and then five days later Cat 1 Floyd left so much destruction from flooding that it bankrupt the state and even now most of the hard hit counties haven't recovered.

Just remember that it's going to take a few days to reopen all the roads.
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Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:


there was no west wobble. It was just people joking/making fun of the people who have plagued this forum freaking out about every wobble of the past couple of days. If anything Irene has "wobbled" more to the north than ever before.


I think it weebled north and wobbled west
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1029. GGNC
Quoting tampahurricane:
Hey guys me and a friend of mine are thinking about going to chase the storm, I have some experience in this. We live in the Tampa area, we were thinking about going on the coast of NC. Does anyone have any suggestions on were we should set up camp? I was thing about a city called Morehead city, but not sure about the elevation there.


I actually live in Morehead City, NC and most parts of town are only slightly above sea level. This area will have pretty significant flooding, especially if the storm keeps shifting west and we end up on the east side of the eye.
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Quoting BobinTampa:



Why would ANYONE come on this blog for advice? Even Dr. Masters doesn't give out evacuation advice.

To be honest, anyone dumb enough to trust an anonymous poster on a blog deserves his/her fate. Darwinism I believe it is called.


+1

the only ones who can trust other posters are those of us who know what we're talking about, and know what "cow pie" smells like.
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Quoting Zaphod:
Irene is less than 10mb over the typical pressure of a Cat 4, yet winds are more like a Cat 2. Something has to give.


Hi Zap good to see ya, send you a WU mail. Hope all is well.
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Quoting Methurricanes:
like the people that stayed in New Orleans, or Galvaston, when a 20-30 ft surge was predicted.
They were northern transplants. lol
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Quoting BobinTampa:



Why would ANYONE come on this blog for advice? Even Dr. Masters doesn't give out evacuation advice.

To be honest, anyone dumb enough to trust an anonymous poster on a blog deserves his/her fate. Darwinism I believe it is called.


so the fact that the same exact cone that is posted by TWC is posted here is a MUTE point then? and the graphs that are posted here for each storm and the percentages are MUTE points as well? boy, sure am glad i am doing the FREE thing instead of paying for the site then....
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
1023. 900MB
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


New microwave shows the open areas in between feeder bands shrinking. The new bursts of convection will fill them completely and Irene will look almost annular. Interesting that the new eye will be about the same size or smaller than the old one.


Notice this storm blows up every afternoon?
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Well, my county is not under tropical storm watch but Lenoir Co is... that's 50 miles to east.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 24 305N 780W


ummmm...i really don't like those numbers please


These better?

AL 09 2011082518 03 H3G2 36 328N 785W


Just kidding, not sure what the H3G2 model is, one of the new research ones.
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1020. Zaphod
Irene is less than 10mb over the typical pressure of a Cat 4, yet winds are more like a Cat 2. Something has to give.
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
well, according to NHC... you got 50% chance of tropical storm winds, 20%-30% chance of 50 kts winds, and 10% chance of hurricane winds.


Thanks man. 50% isnt quite what i was expecting...but with the size and strength of this storm, i guess thats not bad. better then 60%, so positive thinking!
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GA all some great advice on here for alot of the folks up north but I have a bit of advice for them that I have not read on here today. If you live in a sturdy house with or without window protection and ARE NOT in an evacuation zone just stay put and off the roads so the people who are under mandatory evacuations can get out. No need to be out rubbernecking and making the traffic worse for those who are told to leave. If you are still uncomfortable staying put leave now so you wont be in everyone elses way.
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steering
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Quoting Autistic2:
Did she finish her W wobble?


there was no west wobble. It was just people joking/making fun of the people who have plagued this forum freaking out about every wobble of the past couple of days. If anything Irene has "wobbled" more to the north than ever before.
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1014. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:


Most who talk like dat have serious NOLA issues,

And that's unfortunate.

Cuz were a nice City who embrace the world daily.

Even you and others who have never graced us with your presence.

And on Fat Tuesday,,it just Tues in your City.

..and datz all Im gonna say to that.





Uh...I have been to "your" city many times. Had family there until Katrina.

I think you misinterpreted what I said. He seems to be taking a stab at those in your city. I was merely pointing out that his city is about the face it and unlike NOLA which has a population of about 400K, Long Island alone stands at about 8 million.
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Quoting TropicalXprt:


Was that from the landfall you predicted in your yard?
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I live on the beach in Stamford, CT. All lawn furniture and other possibly propelled items have been stored away. Now planning a trip to store up on necessities like h20, dog/cat/bird food, paper plates and nonperishables. All cars gassed up. Just waiting to see what the next model runs say. Good luck to all!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


actually, there are people on these blogs called TROLLS...those are people who wishcast, fishcast or say it isn't so...then people who want to know don't take it seriously...then they get hurt...not everyone is here to learn and do good...there are bad people EVERYWHERE...if you are not familiar with the people on any blog, you don't know who to trust...just say you trusted the WRONG ONE



Why would ANYONE come on this blog for advice? Even Dr. Masters doesn't give out evacuation advice.

To be honest, anyone dumb enough to trust an anonymous poster on a blog deserves his/her fate. Darwinism I believe it is called.
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Hey guys me and a friend of mine are thinking about going to chase the storm, I have some experience in this. We live in the Tampa area, we were thinking about going on the coast of NC. Does anyone have any suggestions on were we should set up camp? I was thing about a city called Morehead city, but not sure about the elevation there.
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Quoting SCwannabe:


or we didn't receive the text message


LOL! That too...
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Quoting presslord:


stop it


awwww....you still love me <3
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
Quoting hurricanejunky:


They should read:

WE WEREN'T LISTENING!


or we didn't receive the text message
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annular hurricane... it could intensify more now that the ewrc is over
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalXprt:


Alas poor chair, we hardly knew ye...
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Quoting kathyvb:


I have a feeling we're going to get hammered here in Va. Beach...during Isabel the wind was'nt even hurricane strength and look at the damage. And thats not counting tidal flooding or storm surge..I really feel bad for the folks in Sandbridge too. And our neighbors to the south and north too.


True, Isabel was barely a Cat 1 when she rolled through, if I recall correctly. Voluntary evacuation for Sandbridge starting at Noon tomorrow, I think...this is certainly gonna get ugly. Beginning to wonder if the Dare Peninsula here in York County can handle the surge...will depend heavily upon Irene's track. Good luck to you guys in VB, though, you're gonna need it.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
AL 09 2011082518 03 TVCN 24 305N 780W


ummmm...i really don't like those numbers please


stop it
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1002. brianc
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Belle
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Quoting willdunc79:
bluestorn what is the percentage for Fayetteville, NC?


looking at NHC forecast, it's:

10% chance of hurricane force winds
40%-50% chance of 50 kts winds
70-80% chance of tropical storm winds.

This is NHC's forecast, not mine.

Link
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The GOES Project Science has some really cool movies (HD available) and large color images of Irene.


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Anyone still thinking a SC/NC landfall?
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West Palm Beach FL. here,little rain, light winds so far today.
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997. Vero1
Quoting willdunc79:
bluestorn what is the percentage for Fayetteville, NC?
What does it matter? In Vero Beach we are experiencing a heavy downpour but .....68% chance of precipitation
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Quoting TropicalXprt:
LMAO!!!!!
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Did she finish her W wobble?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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