Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2011

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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1095. 1Banana
Quoting MrstormX:
Fresh 12z Japanese model...not looking good for the Eastern Seaboard.



Thanks for posting this Japanese model. I like how clear and concise it is.
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Quoting Buhdog:


there are more than a few people who are curious about the anomalies with mimic microwave loop. I mean...the program exists, weather (pun) or not you believe in conspiracy.

Why do i feel like mel gibson all of a sudden? We may have just seen the worst we will see out of Irene in SWFL....a small band 5 mins of rain :( or :) depending on your outlook.



LOL...Id' take the 5 minutes of rain...

As for the other, there were some decidedly weird folks in here last night; some guy handing out Climate Change Watchtower magazines, a couple of Bilderbergers...and me...the weirdness never stops!
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Quoting TropicalXprt:
Check out this picture from PR after the flooding there was a shark swimming around the streets...



Uh yea, FLDewey posted that this morning and said it was from the Bahamas.

Please tell us all again on how Irene was not turning north and Florida was doomed.
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12z UKMET
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Likely wrong, but still something to look at
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Quoting indianrivguy:


He did during Ike... and saved some lives.


did he give any advice during Ike that contradicted local authorities or the NHC? And Dr. Masters, Angela, and Rob are the only people that should give out that type of advice on here.

There are others like weatherguy, chucktown, and some others - but a newbie to the blog wouldn't know that. And THAT is why people shouldn't come to the COMMENTS section of a blog for advice on life or death decisions.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
look what recon found OH MY


SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind


140 knots*
(~ 161.0 mph*)


Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor


137.8 knots* (~ 158.5 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane


Those better be contaminated...or it's

"Game over man...game over!"



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Quoting Dragod66:
161 mph surface winds on recon?


No corelation to flight level winds, they are also close to or over land. Highly suspect.
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Quoting ThisEndUp:


Whereabouts in YC? I lived in Hampton for Isabel. Dare Peninsula now...gonna be a wild ride, i'm thinking. I think this 5pm update is gonna be interesting; new track, maybe a watch issued...


Dare peninsula as well! small world haha, I'm at CNU but we have to evacuate it today. Coming home to make sure the house is good to go.
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1086. dader
Quoting tiggeriffic:


so the fact that the same exact cone that is posted by TWC is posted here is a MUTE point then? and the graphs that are posted here for each storm and the percentages are MUTE points as well? boy, sure am glad i am doing the FREE thing instead of paying for the site then....


i think you may be thinking of "moot" point.. but your point was taken
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Quoting Gatorxgrrrl:


There were so many people that did not have resources to get out of town and the govt engineers assured them the levies would hold. Don't blame the innocent for mother nature please.
Very true.
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1084. 900MB
Recon, recon, who has the latest recon?
Thanks in advance!
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Be safe my US peeps this ones a dandy. Tho if u live behind a range of mountains and the eye is on the other side, you're safer. Sounds obvious but lesson learned from Irene
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Quoting Floodman:


She can't...it's like a mouse and a snake...


:P
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3599
If you have a gas grill remember to get the propane tank filled. If your power and gas are off, you can use the grill to boil water, cook food from your thawing freezer, and in a pinch provide some outside light.
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Quoting photonchaser:

What model is that?


12z CMC
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Anybody know what Irene's ACE is right now? She should be getting close to surpassing the rest of the season's storms combined I would believe.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
look what recon found OH MY


SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind


140 knots*
(~ 161.0 mph*)


Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor


137.8 knots* (~ 158.5 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane


It is flagged though...yah I'm confuzzled
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Quoting BobinTampa:



Why would ANYONE come on this blog for advice? Even Dr. Masters doesn't give out evacuation advice.

To be honest, anyone dumb enough to trust an anonymous poster on a blog deserves his/her fate. Darwinism I believe it is called.


He did during Ike... and saved some lives.
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Quoting MrstormX:

What model is that?
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Looking better then earlier.
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1074. Dunkman
I think the SFMR is a little broken...

Time: 19:12:30Z
Coordinates: 26.8333N 77.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.1 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,814 meters (~ 9,232 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 963.9 mb (~ 28.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 33° at 64 knots (From the NNE at ~ 73.6 mph)
Air Temp: 13.3°C (~ 55.9°F)
Dew Pt: 4.7°C (~ 40.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 140 knots* (~ 161.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
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Quoting SCwannabe:
Those FEMA trailers are sure going to look bad in NYC for the Holidays!


LOL!
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Holy moley:

SFMR: 123 knots* (~ 141.4 mph*)

Sure, it's a suspect reading. But still, we haven't seen winds like that at all. If that's even close to right, she'll be a strong Cat 3 in the 5pm.
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Quoting MrstormX:


really?


just SW of little abaco island
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 576
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah in york county here too, should be a blast:(


Whereabouts in YC? I lived in Hampton for Isabel. Dare Peninsula now...gonna be a wild ride, i'm thinking. I think this 5pm update is gonna be interesting; new track, maybe a watch issued...
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


so the fact that the same exact cone that is posted by TWC is posted here is a MUTE point then? and the graphs that are posted here for each storm and the percentages are MUTE points as well? boy, sure am glad i am doing the FREE thing instead of paying for the site then....


It's moot not mute and this is a place to:

a) get Dr. Masters take on the tropics, and
b) discuss the tropics amongst ourselves.

It is NOT a place to get evacuation advice. Plain and simple. If local authorities were telling you to evacuate but Levi (one of our more knowledgeable commenters) was saying you'll be fine where you are, what would you do?

I think the world of Levi, but I'm getting out of dodge.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
look what recon found OH MY


SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind


140 knots*
(~ 161.0 mph*)


Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor


137.8 knots* (~ 158.5 mph*)
Category Five Hurricane
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Quoting 900MB:


Notice this storm blows up every afternoon?


Diurnal Cycles, the daily maximum temperature generally occurs between the hours of 2 P.M. and 5 P.M. and then continually decreases until sunrise the next day.

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Can anyone provide info about model verification?
The GFDL is so much farther west than any of the other models. Does it typically do well with these storms? I've seen people say that the ECMWF has been the most accurate in recent years and it's a bit more toward the west, but not anywhere near the GFDL. What do you think the GFDL might be responding to that the others aren't?
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Quoting tampahurricane:
Hey guys me and a friend of mine are thinking about going to chase the storm, I have some experience in this. We live in the Tampa area, we were thinking about going on the coast of NC. Does anyone have any suggestions on were we should set up camp? I was thing about a city called Morehead city, but not sure about the elevation there.
Beaufort, Atlantic Beach, and Morehead City are kinda low... not protected by storm surge very well. I don't know about area south of these cities.
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It seems like the blog has a case of the giggles. Nervous laughter? I would love to see some facts about Irene right now because this seems to be a critical time in determining if she will stay on track. I'm not a weather expert and I can't even tell when some of you are kidding or not. I do know that I am watching the latitude and longitude to determine how this is going. Thanks for all your great posts and images so I can continue to learn. Be safe.
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Quoting presslord:


stop it


She can't...it's like a mouse and a snake...
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CAPE HATTERS is a definite no. I know they would be under water.
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Updated Hurricane Local Statement for IRENE from NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

Excerpt:


.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES THE AREA...EXPECT AN
INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LARGE WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON FRIDAY.
THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL OCCUR. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
REMEMBER...WHEN MAKING DECISIONS KEEP IN MIND THAT IRENE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...SO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

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Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Quoting Dragod66:
161 mph surface winds on recon?


really?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Has anyone heard from Oz lately. Is he covering Irene?
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1055. Buhdog
Quoting Floodman:


I think this is my buddy prioris from early this morning...weather control, Bilderberg tinfoil hart sort of stuff...


there are more than a few people who are curious about the anomalies with mimic microwave loop. I mean...the program exists, weather (pun) or not you believe in conspiracy.

Why do i feel like mel gibson all of a sudden? We may have just seen the worst we will see out of Irene in SWFL....a small band 5 mins of rain :( or :) depending on your outlook.

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Quoting SCwannabe:
Those FEMA trailers are sure going to look bad in NYC for the Holidays!


HAHAHAHAHA... THAT MADE ME LAUGH SO DARN LOUD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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161 mph surface winds on recon?
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 576
1052. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalXprt:
Check out this picture from PR after the flooding there was a shark swimming around the streets...



That's obviously false. Water is too shallow and the shark's fin would be visible above water, plus... it would have made news here.

Though there were caimans wandering a community.
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//COMMENCE RANT//

/// Just a reminder... do not take the advice of anyone on this Blog.. refer to your local NWS and EMC and NHC..//

//99% of the people here are "copy and paste Monday Morning experts"... I see JB'S and Henry's work from many (REED) as well excerpts from Accuweather and Intellicast ETC.. in general posted as id it were the bloggers work" ((((((FAIL))))))

//Do not trust life decisions on regurgitated interpretations!//

// For the people who bash NHC? you are clueless! They have more skill and education than you could ever dream of.. stick to being an INTERNET EXPERT!///

///secure from RANT///
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Quoting TropicalXprt:
Check out this picture from PR after the flooding there was a shark swimming around the streets...

thats epic
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Those FEMA trailers are sure going to look bad in NYC for the Holidays!
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1048. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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called my new yorker friend yo warn him and found out he's gone to miami!! Love the irony. He said he'll kill me if his newly renovated house is damaged:(
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1045. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.