Hurricane Irene Prepares to Leave the Bahamas and Head for the US

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:51 AM GMT on August 25, 2011

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As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 24.2N, 76.0W, 105 miles east-southeast of Nassau or 760 miles south of Cape Hatteras. It was moving northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 950 mb. Hurricane force winds can be found up to 70 miles from Irene's center, and tropical storm force winds can be found out to 255 miles from the storm's center.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be posted for the Carolina coastlines later this morning. At this time, Dare County Emergency Management has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all visitors in their county. Dare County Schools will also be closed Thursday and Friday.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 is the infrared satellite image of Irene at 135EDT. The convection is a bit unbalanced around the storm center, which is going to cause Irene to wobble like an unbalanced clothes washer (Analogy courtesy of Angela Fritz) over the next few hours. At the time this image was taken, the convection around Irene's center appears to be getting more vigorous, as cold cloudtops are starting to increase around the storm center. This is important to note because microwave satellite imagery from Wednesday evening suggested Irene was starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Figure 2 shows passive microwave imagery from a Air Force DMSP polar-orbiting satellite. The two concentric green/yellow bands in the image suggest that two eyewall features are present in Irene, and Hurricane Hunter observations confirm this. This has important consequences for Irene's intensity, because in an eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall weakens, the storm's intensity drops. However, once the inner eyewall is gone, and the outer eyewall contracts to replace it, the storm intensity will increase again.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011


Figure 2 DMSP F18 microwave overpass of Irene at 824PM EDT, August 24, 2011. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over the northwest Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the northeast. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. Sunday, Irene may make secondary landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline. In my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a Category 4 storm (winds faster than 130 mph) by Thursday morning. As Irene moves northward into cooler water, the intensity is expected to drop slowly to a Category 2 storm before making landfall in the Outer Banks.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 2AM EDT.

Forecast models and today's planned flights
The different forecast models are still in fairly good agreement about Irene's track through the Bahamas and along the east coast of the US. The 00Z GFS run is in close agreement with the 12Z ECMWF run, but the 00Z ECMWF run (shown in figure 4) is continuing the ECMWF's trend of shifting the track westward with each run. NHC forecasters have been placing emphasis on the ECMWF's forecast track when making their forecasts for IRene, so it is possible that the NHC track will shift westwards at the 5AM update.

Looking at the plan of the day valid for today, it will be a busy day for airborne reconnaissance. Three flights for the Air Force hurricane hunters, two flights for the Gulfstream IV (Gonzo), and two flights for NOAA 42, a WP-3D (Kermit). They may have to give NOAA a littering permit for all of the dropsondes used to monitor Irene and her environment, but the forecast improvements they generate are worth the effort.


Figure 4 Plot of the maximum sustained winds in mph over the next week from the 00Z ECMWF forecast.

Impacts

Hurricane force winds will arrive in the northwestern Bahamas today. Storm surge near the center of Irene will be 7-11 feet above tide level. The Bahamas can expect 6-12 inches of rain over the next day or so, and it looks like the Turks and Caicos islands will receive a total of 6-12 inches from Irene. Large, swells from Irene will start landing on the southeastern US coastline later today. Please don't go in the water, as these swells can cause dangerous rip currents. Dr. Masters has catalogued the worst-case storm surge surge scenarios as a function of storm intensity here.

In my opinion, people living from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should pay close attention to Irene and prepare for a wide range of impacts. I think that there is a 75% chance of Irene's secondary landfall will be somewhere between JFK airport and Cape Cod. That said, Irene's size will cause significant impacts for people living far from it's center.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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G'morning,Beell and SJ. Haven't greeted either one of you in a couple of years. Good to see you, although it could be under better circumstances.
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Came home yesterday to find the very small storm, less than three minutes of rain had produced either a small tornado or just the extreme winds had taken down several trees, one looking exploded. We didn't get electric back on until just a little while ago. I pulled out the small battery fans from the hurricane stash.

Between the drunk hitting my daughter-in-law on the way home from New Orleans to the storm yesterday, I haven't been able to follow Irene and each time I get a quick look she just gets worse.

Has anyone heard from our friends in the Bahamas since Irene began hitting there?
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The other problem I have with NHC forecast is that it has the storm peaking at 135mph at 2am Friday off the Florida coast and down to 115mph by Sat 2am just south of South Carolina. I don't see what happens between those 2 points to deteriorate the storm???
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Quoting 900MB:


This model does look stronger than NHC forecast. I am trying to get a grip on possible speed and timing of hitting Long Island. ALL HELP APPRECIATED.From the NHC forecast I would guess a 90mph Cat 1 at around 2pm on Sunday. That is, if it is only 105mph at the Outer Banks like NHC suggests. The problem I have is that I am not buying 115mph at Outer Banks at the moment. I would think it would hit there at 130-135 mph. If that is the case, then it is a whole different ball game for Long Island as I would expect 105-110mph on LI landfall. Anyone care to take a stab here?


If I remember correctly, Dr. Master's has said several times over the years that the models and the NHC margin of error forecasting intensity is much greater than their margin for error in track.
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Quoting beell:


Morning, SJ. No I don't see it missing NC either. I don't think we will see any motion east of north today.


Tend to agree beell; and good to see ya. I sort of doubt we will even see due north today (expect still a little westward component). Hell, I'm even under a TS watch way down here and based on what HH is finding I'm guessing we might see 40mph winds with maybe a 50+ mph gust thrown in the mix with any bands that may pass through.

Going to be a very rough weekend for points N of Myrtle Beach.
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g'morning all
was really hoping for more of an eastward movement, maybe we'll see it later today...
MAYBE

awful disconcerting to see her RIGHT THERE. Just so creepy. And folks further north? I hope they can handle this.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all

Looking like there is less chance that she stays off the NC coast all together. And the 00z GFDL is a really scary possibility for those in the DelMarVa area as well.


Morning, SJ. No I don't see it missing NC either. I don't think we will see any motion east of north today.
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Wont Irene strenghten when she gets over the Gulf Stream ?


Most likely
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Quoting weatherman566:
I am kinda surprised NHC lowered the intensity of Irene as the storm approaches NC and the Northeast. European shows a 960 around intialization, which is slight above the current pressure. Then, it strengthens, hits near NC coast as a strong/major hurricane, and weakens ever so slightly as a 966mb storm when it hits the NE.

Water temperatures will likely support a hurricane too. It'll be interesting if the models are right, or if basic common sense is correct.

Regardless, I expect a stronger storm than what the NHC is forecasting.



This model does look stronger than NHC forecast. I am trying to get a grip on possible speed and timing of hitting Long Island. ALL HELP APPRECIATED.From the NHC forecast I would guess a 90mph Cat 1 at around 2pm on Sunday. That is, if it is only 105mph at the Outer Banks like NHC suggests. The problem I have is that I am not buying 115mph at Outer Banks at the moment. I would think it would hit there at 130-135 mph. If that is the case, then it is a whole different ball game for Long Island as I would expect 105-110mph on LI landfall. Anyone care to take a stab here?
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Wont Irene strenghten when she gets over the Gulf Stream ?
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Morning all

Looking like there is less chance that she stays off the NC coast all together. And the 00z GFDL is a really scary possibility for those in the DelMarVa area as well.
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Also, the NE ground is really saturated. With a frontal system stalling across the area, humidity levels will be up. I've seen systems not become impacted over land due to such high saturation in the soil and the lack of dry air that could enter the system.

I still think the intensity levels are too low.
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Quoting weatherman566:
I am kinda surprised NHC lowered the intensity of Irene as the storm approaches NC and the Northeast. European shows a 960 around intialization, which is slight above the current pressure. Then, it strengthens, hits near NC coast as a strong/major hurricane, and weakens ever so slightly as a 966mb storm when it hits the NE.

Water temperatures will likely support a hurricane too. It'll be interesting if the models are right, or if basic common sense is correct.

Regardless, I expect a stronger storm than what the NHC is forecasting.


they are staying a little weaker due to her EWRC, shes starting to get better organized now and will peak out tomorrow night or saturday morning. then she will slowly weaken. landfall in north carolina is likely a strong 2 to a moderate 3 110-120mph
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
watch outer bands effect miami and ft lauderdale in the hour or so . check out the miami radar and go to long range loop watch the bands drift west
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Link

Eye see you, her eye is starting to show herself again.
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I am kinda surprised NHC lowered the intensity of Irene as the storm approaches NC and the Northeast. European shows a 960 around intialization, which is slight above the current pressure. Then, it strengthens, hits near NC coast as a strong/major hurricane, and weakens ever so slightly as a 966mb storm when it hits the NE.

Water temperatures will likely support a hurricane too. It'll be interesting if the models are right, or if basic common sense is correct.

Regardless, I expect a stronger storm than what the NHC is forecasting.

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irene just went trough an EWRC. will it stregnthen today?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1724
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Quoting cutgr:
is it me or did the track shift to the west a tad bit?


It did shift west some.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah, I know that. The problem is defining "near".


I believe the protocol is that anything that hits TS status east of 35W earns the "CV storm" moniker.
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I cant help myself I have found yet another great link threw software I have but visible http link

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/
enjoy
5 different models say at this point between wilmington and hatteras
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is it me or did the track shift to the west a tad bit?
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Concerned here in NE. TWC isn't in storm alert yet....
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Dropsonde found central pressure unchanged at 950mb.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

a CV storm forms near the Cape verde islands, hence the name. CV storms are --usually-- not a threat to land.
yeah, I know that. The problem is defining "near".
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

It woke me up in the middle of the night and went straight for cover under the doorway, for about 20 seconds everything was shacking. And in the kitchen glass fall of the table and that was about it. That was in oceanside some years ago. Though im glad did not had to witness an earthquake since then :)
hmm that's a pretty good shaking as well, although I may have slept right through it, cuz I don't recall it lol

Anyway, out for good now. Catch you all later
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Quoting TomTaylor:
not sure what definition of a cape Verde storm is (what specific region it must form within) but this looks like it could be our first. certainly the furthest east storm of the year. I don't expect it to become too strong, but a hurricane is still possible. Good news is it shouldn't be a threat to land

a CV storm forms near the Cape verde islands, hence the name. CV storms are --usually-- not a threat to land.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
TD Ten has formed.
not sure what definition of a cape Verde storm is (what specific region it must form within) but this looks like it could be our first. certainly the furthest east storm of the year. I don't expect it to become too strong, but a hurricane is still possible. Good news is it shouldn't be a threat to land
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 250859
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST
TIP OF A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION AND
THE RECENT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...A
MORE CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY SEEMS MOST PRUDENT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS NOT BEEN WELL FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN 280/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
DECELERATE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 35W IN 2-3 DAYS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK AROUND
96-120 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE
CYCLONE...WITH A WEAKER/SHALLOWER SYSTEM LIKELY LYING WEST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

EVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TRACK OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS CURRENTLY
SHOW 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH
IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY
REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE ABRUPT
TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND THIS TIME WILL
BRING IT OVER 25C-26C WATERS AND LATER IN A REGION OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING SLOW STRENGTHENING. WEAKENING
IS INDICATED AFTER THAT TIME IN LIGHT OF THE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER AND IS BELOW MOST THE
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 12.4N 30.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 14.5N 34.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 15.5N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 17.7N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Another TS only?

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The CV storm is headed north into the Atlantic graveyard.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
oh lucky, yea its very nice up there.

Anyway, I think I'm gonna catch some Zs, night all. Hope you get some sleep as well, atmos lol


Night Tom and hopefully I'll sneak in a 2 hour nap or something once we get one more RECON fix lol.
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Quoting atmosweather:


Lol no the guy who is funding his new company owns one of the communities there so he said we can move into one of those homes. Its a beautiful area.
oh lucky, yea its very nice up there.

Anyway, I think I'm gonna catch some Zs, night all. Hope you get some sleep as well, atmos lol
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Quoting Gorty:


So I was pretty much right huh at least with her south side?

Yes
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 250858
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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NEW CV STORM
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 250857
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 30.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting TomTaylor:
dang, is your dad rich or something? Rancho Santa Fe is just about the nicest neighborhood in San Diego.. I have an aunt and uncle that live up there...nice gated community, massive homes lol


Lol no the guy who is funding his new company owns one of the communities there so he said we can move into one of those homes. Its a beautiful area.
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TD Ten has formed.
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Ecmwf expected landfall around 2:00 pm sat
I wasnt going to post again untill 200 pm but i ran across that animation and just thought you all would enjoy it .you all have a nice day
Dew
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Quoting atmosweather:


The Miami NEXRAD site will be able to reach the eye of Irene in a few hours. Meanwhile I'm using the Intellicast radar out of Key West.


thanks!
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 250852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST
...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
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Quoting willdunc79:
joshfsu has the track shifted west before or after NC?


Both - landfall over OBX of NC (or a little west of there) and then up to a 2nd landfall in the Delaware/New Jersey area. Similar path as the GFDL, maybe a tad to the east of that path (but overall to the west when compared to the 00z NAM).
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

The islands affected the eyewall somewhat and so far during the track caused wobbles. Because of cuba the southern side of the storm appears weaker too. Because of very warm waters for an extended period of time and with cuba and islands left behind in coming hours we could expect rapid development...


So I was pretty much right huh at least with her south side?
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Dropsonde in the SE eyewall found surface winds of 98mph.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
that's unfortunate lol. You should have been here two Easters ago. there was a 7.2 SE of us...gave us a pretty good shake and broke a few of our pictures hanging on the walls

It woke me up in the middle of the night and went straight for cover under the doorway, for about 20 seconds everything was shacking. And in the kitchen glass fall of the table and that was about it. That was in oceanside some years ago. Though im glad did not had to witness an earthquake since then :)
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Quoting atmosweather:


I'll be living in Rancho Santa Fe, about 25 miles north of the metro area. I'm sure it's going to be pretty different without any afternoon thunderstorms in the summer and no threat of severe weather in the fall and winter lol.
dang, is your dad rich or something? Rancho Santa Fe is just about the nicest neighborhood in San Diego.. I have an aunt and uncle that live up near there in Faribanks...nice gated community, massive homes lol
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before
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joshfsu has the track shifted west before or after NC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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