Hurricane Irene Prepares to Leave the Bahamas and Head for the US

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:51 AM GMT on August 25, 2011

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As of 2AM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located at 24.2N, 76.0W, 105 miles east-southeast of Nassau or 760 miles south of Cape Hatteras. It was moving northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Irene has a minimum central pressure of 950 mb. Hurricane force winds can be found up to 70 miles from Irene's center, and tropical storm force winds can be found out to 255 miles from the storm's center.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas. Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be posted for the Carolina coastlines later this morning. At this time, Dare County Emergency Management has issued a mandatory evacuation order for all visitors in their county. Dare County Schools will also be closed Thursday and Friday.

Satellite Views
Figure 1 is the infrared satellite image of Irene at 135EDT. The convection is a bit unbalanced around the storm center, which is going to cause Irene to wobble like an unbalanced clothes washer (Analogy courtesy of Angela Fritz) over the next few hours. At the time this image was taken, the convection around Irene's center appears to be getting more vigorous, as cold cloudtops are starting to increase around the storm center. This is important to note because microwave satellite imagery from Wednesday evening suggested Irene was starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Figure 2 shows passive microwave imagery from a Air Force DMSP polar-orbiting satellite. The two concentric green/yellow bands in the image suggest that two eyewall features are present in Irene, and Hurricane Hunter observations confirm this. This has important consequences for Irene's intensity, because in an eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall weakens, the storm's intensity drops. However, once the inner eyewall is gone, and the outer eyewall contracts to replace it, the storm intensity will increase again.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Irene taken at 113AM EDT, August 23, 2011


Figure 2 DMSP F18 microwave overpass of Irene at 824PM EDT, August 24, 2011. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory

Track Forecast

Irene is forecast to move to the northwest, passing over the northwest Bahamas by Thursday evening, then curving to the northeast. Irene then makes landfall in the US near or at the Outer Banks Saturday afternoon, then traveling along the mid-Atlantic coastline of the US. Sunday, Irene may make secondary landfall anywhere from New Jersey to Long Island and the southern New England coastline. In my opinion, New York City may be significantly impacted by Irene. It is also important to note that the windfield of Irene is expected to be large, affecting areas distant from the immediate track of Irene's center. Tropical storm forces winds are expected to be found out to at least 150 miles away from Irene's center on Friday afternoon.

NHC is forecasting for Irene to become a Category 4 storm (winds faster than 130 mph) by Thursday morning. As Irene moves northward into cooler water, the intensity is expected to drop slowly to a Category 2 storm before making landfall in the Outer Banks.


Figure 3 Official track forecast of Irene at 2AM EDT.

Forecast models and today's planned flights
The different forecast models are still in fairly good agreement about Irene's track through the Bahamas and along the east coast of the US. The 00Z GFS run is in close agreement with the 12Z ECMWF run, but the 00Z ECMWF run (shown in figure 4) is continuing the ECMWF's trend of shifting the track westward with each run. NHC forecasters have been placing emphasis on the ECMWF's forecast track when making their forecasts for IRene, so it is possible that the NHC track will shift westwards at the 5AM update.

Looking at the plan of the day valid for today, it will be a busy day for airborne reconnaissance. Three flights for the Air Force hurricane hunters, two flights for the Gulfstream IV (Gonzo), and two flights for NOAA 42, a WP-3D (Kermit). They may have to give NOAA a littering permit for all of the dropsondes used to monitor Irene and her environment, but the forecast improvements they generate are worth the effort.


Figure 4 Plot of the maximum sustained winds in mph over the next week from the 00Z ECMWF forecast.

Impacts

Hurricane force winds will arrive in the northwestern Bahamas today. Storm surge near the center of Irene will be 7-11 feet above tide level. The Bahamas can expect 6-12 inches of rain over the next day or so, and it looks like the Turks and Caicos islands will receive a total of 6-12 inches from Irene. Large, swells from Irene will start landing on the southeastern US coastline later today. Please don't go in the water, as these swells can cause dangerous rip currents. Dr. Masters has catalogued the worst-case storm surge surge scenarios as a function of storm intensity here.

In my opinion, people living from the Carolinas to Cape Cod should pay close attention to Irene and prepare for a wide range of impacts. I think that there is a 75% chance of Irene's secondary landfall will be somewhere between JFK airport and Cape Cod. That said, Irene's size will cause significant impacts for people living far from it's center.

Dr. Masters will have a new blog entry this morning, and Angela Fritz will be covering the afternoon. I'll be back on third shift tonight.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

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Quoting robert88:
Turning NNW earlier than expected makes me think Irene's track will be on the E side of the models. It's still way too early but this may be a blessing for the EC.


Not yet...
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345. GoWVU
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Oh my...

970mb 215° (from the SW) 184 knots (212 mph)


WOW!!!
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8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 25
Location: 25.5°N 76.5°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


No. Recon is in and showing that it is moving NNW.



this be come recon is in there dos not mean the rader can show a little W jogs from time to time so this be come recon says NNW dos not mean that the rader may be showing that this storm has take in a little W jog
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Oh my...

970mb 215° (from the SW) 184 knots (212 mph)
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Bastardi shifted his path west. Now to hit just and I mean just east of Wilmington and a litter West of new York city...yikes be aware folks..bad to NC and the big city...
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Quoting AllyBama:


Good morning tropicfreak..no doubt you will have a busy few days preparing as will my daughter. who would have thought that earthquakes and hurricanes would be instore of you this week..


I know right? Crazy week! The epicenter was just 35 miles to my NW. A few things fell off the bookshelves, the counter, and the picture frames tilted but no serious damage.

BTW had an aftershock just after 1 am, largest one since the main earthquake which registered at a 4.5. Was still awake laying in my bed when I felt it.
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Quoting OminousCloud:
on Miami Long Range radar , the center seems to be jogging more west. do you guys agree?


No. Recon is in and showing that it is moving NNW.
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Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
How close is Irene to the S FLA coast right now? And how close is it predicted to be to Wilmington at its closest approach? Just wondering trying to compare what our conditions will be like to what we see in SFLA


Here's the Wilmington Warning Page Link from the link that N. just posted:

LinkWilmingtonNHCForecastOffice

This is what N. posted and is worth posting again:
LinkHurricane Local Statements for IRENE
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Somewhere about here.


Quoting chevycanes:

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS.


Quoting vortextrance:



.FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS.


Ok, need to read slower next time, lol.
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say this thing hits me in SE CT , is 9 miles inland far enough from the coast? obviously surge wouldnt be an issue but in general.
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on Miami Long Range radar , the center seems to be jogging more west. do you guys agree?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Show me where they said that:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



.FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Show me where they should that:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS.
IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Somewhere about here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Show me where they should that:



FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 693
Re Post 307 Thanks N.
Here's the link to Melbourne page for us ECFLers

Link

I'm at about 29N 81W.
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Quoting vortextrance:


Weakening. She will have to strengthen some to reach her current listed max winds of 115. The NHC mentioned that estimate as generous.


Show me where they said that:

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB.
HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA
SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS
WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT
WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN
OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED
BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE
WEST.

HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.6N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Still no watches /warnings for for FL/GA , i guess she is going to slam on the breaks and turn hard....
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Recon has confirmed a NNW heading over the last 3 hours. Some better news if you live in NC. The right quadrant might just go E of the outerbanks like the NHC track showed earlier.
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How close is Irene to the S FLA coast right now? And how close is it predicted to be to Wilmington at its closest approach? Just wondering trying to compare what our conditions will be like to what we see in SFLA
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 631
just curious, but is the bermuda high so far this month strong weak or average in stregnth? thanks
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NNW-got it, Thanks!
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Quoting Chicklit:
Shear Map



What do you think?


I think if Irene is going into 40-50 knots of shear, as the map seems to indicate, she'll slow down a lot and might not recover.
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06Z GFDL


HOUR: .0 LONG: -75.90 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.70 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 99.88
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -76.62 LAT: 25.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.07
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -77.25 LAT: 26.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.12
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -77.45 LAT: 27.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.73
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -77.85 LAT: 28.21 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.63
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -78.23 LAT: 29.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.18 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):103.37
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -78.29 LAT: 29.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.14
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -78.04 LAT: 30.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.56
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -78.15 LAT: 31.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.72 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.62
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -78.06 LAT: 32.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.95 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.10
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -77.90 LAT: 32.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 927.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.66
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -77.35 LAT: 33.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 925.77 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):101.49
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 34.64 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.64
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -77.01 LAT: 35.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.44 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.31
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -77.17 LAT: 37.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.94 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.86
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -76.91 LAT: 37.95 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.81 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.59
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -76.34 LAT: 39.26 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.69
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -75.59 LAT: 41.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.84
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -74.75 LAT: 43.92 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.08 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.41
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -73.53 LAT: 46.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.46
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -72.24 LAT: 48.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.87 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.47
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -70.68 LAT: 50.96 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.22 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.02

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
is irene weaking now or streghthing?


Weakening. She will have to strengthen some to reach her current listed max winds of 115. The NHC mentioned that estimate as generous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 11:31Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:11Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°18'N 76°30'W (25.3N 76.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 55 miles (88 km) to the ENE (73°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the E (95°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 172° at 116kts (From the S at ~ 133.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 951mb (28.08 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,450m (8,038ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 116kts (~ 133.5mph) in the east quadrant at 10:53Z
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yeah, the CMC is the most bullish, making it a strong TS/Hurricane. Should follow Irene out to her east.


Although, just looking now, the 00Z CMC has backed way off. Shows a possible weak TS.
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Quoting wunderweatherman123:
is irene weaking now or streghthing?


Quoting MoltenIce:
Is Irene completing her EWRC?


@MoltenIce: Yes, she is finishing up the process, should strengthen rather significantly this afternoon.

@wunderweathernan123: Holding strength for now, but should strengthen quite a bit later on.
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First band of Irene rolled ashore about 15-20 minutes ago, near Nova University in the Fort Lauderdale area which is inland about 10 miles or so. Winds sustained at 12-15 miles and gusts to mid 20's while moving to the SW will impact the upper/middle keys soon. Watching the NWS Radar as a new and heavier band has come in to it's range and will approach shore soon, will monitor winds and post periodically what we are getting here near Nova U.
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Can anyone post radar for Irene? TIA
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For those potentially in harms way, a good page to reference is the NHC Hurricane Local Statements for IRENE, which has links to information from local NWS weather offices. Offices currently on the page:


Issuing WFO Homepage Hurricane Local Statement

Newport/Morehead City, NC 642 AM EDT THU AUG 25

Wakefield, VA 645 AM EDT THU AUG 25

Melbourne, FL 606 AM EDT THU AUG 25

Charleston, SC 605 AM EDT THU AUG 25

Miami, FL 553 AM EDT THU AUG 25

Wilmington, NC 550 AM EDT THU AUG 25
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
about ten yrs ago i was lucky to cruise that whole area of the northern bahamas seems as if the abaco surfer is hunkered down now
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Quoting WxLogic:


Some models are developing it E of Irene at the time she reaches the Mid ATL states.


Yeah, the CMC is the most bullish, making it a strong TS/Hurricane. Should follow Irene out to her east.
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120 mph in the next advisory, I think.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anybody remember this little spinner?

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THESE WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


Still spinning, but not going to make it, lol.
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301. 900MB
For Long Island: I went to sleep with the Hurricane of 38' and woke up with Gloria lite?
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Hope not. Florida and Georgia will be seriously affected then and WE are not truly prepared for a surprise visit from Irene. Of course, I remember the last Irene that hit us..NHC.."she is gonna turn, she is gonna turn, she is gonna turn.....well, folks, she is NOT turning." Fortunately she was a Cat 1 with minimal damage. Still, I did not have time to get my shutters up or do any preparation! I now get my hurricane kit ready in MAY!
Good morning to all. Getting breezy in Port St. Lucie, no rain yet. Clouds to the SE. Prayers and thoughts with all of those in Bahamas.


Let's hope the turn happens soon. I'm going to drop off my daughter in school in the next 20 mins and my son is already in school. I'm already seing feeder band activity in Miami.

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anybody remember this little spinner?

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THESE WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


Some models are developing it E of Irene at the time she reaches the Mid ATL states.
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Is Irene completing her EWRC?
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is irene weaking now or streghthing?
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come on visible......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.