Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2011

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Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.

Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.

Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.


Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.

Angela

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3218. midgulfmom
3:33 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Good Morning. To everyone in the cone: You are invited to check out my blog. I saved Hurricane prep tips that were added before Hurricane Gustave. Some great suggestions by hurricane veterans that I have used myself and found to be helpful. To all you Veterans please feel free to add your best tips once again. Please take Hurricane Irene seriously, my prayers are with you...
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
3217. naviguesser
11:31 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting vince1:

^Not conspiratorial and even if it reeks of politics, truth is more important than blissful ignorance.


I suspect that as poor as the government has been rated lately, they want to get something right. They look back on the Bush Admin response to Katrina as a major black-eye for him and this has the potential to be MUCH bigger.
Member Since: September 15, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
3216. Jtownboy
10:31 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Can someone post the 5:00 am update plz.
Member Since: August 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
3215. CaneHunter031472
10:26 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
3214. ncstorm
10:19 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I wake up and Wilmington is under a tropical storm watch now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14574
3213. OracleDeAtlantis
9:15 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
The models are trending west for good reason.

Irene is trending west ...



Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 502
3212. TomTaylor
8:29 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


Just east of Orlando, FL. But in a couple of months I'll be moving just N of San Diego to start a new job with my father. Where abouts are you located?
damn, so its 4am lol

And thats cool (not so cool if you enjoy weather...southern California is just about the capital of non-eventful/significant weather phenomenon. Little rain, little temp variation, persistent marine layer along the coast all year long, little thunderstorm activity, no snow (except in the mnts to the east), hail is a rarity, no tropical storms, etc, etc) I live in San Diego right now. More specifically, I live in University City, which is like a subsection/neighborhood in San Diego. It's just east of La Jolla and north of Clairemont.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3211. njdevil
8:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
The problem with saying "prepare" for the NY/NJ area is that most of the preparations are mental. "I need to do this, I need to go here.." etc.

Especially if the worst case of a clean shot somewhere at/around/east of NYC happens. You get what, 12-18 hours notice? Where people normally prepare for storms the storm is plodding along taking its time. Once this thing gets near NC, it's going to take off like a bat out of hell. And the storm will probably come in sometime around midday.

Doesn't give you much time to put your mental preparations into action... other than "RUN!"

This really could be a total mess. Don't like seeing models come in right over my head because I know how little time I'm going to get. Hell, the storms over the last couple of years that were doing runs closer to Bermuda made me nervous for the same reason, and that was irrational.
Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
3210. Gorty
8:27 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Right now, then only thing that is really affecting her is herself with the inner stuff (LOL) I really don't know what to call it.

Could be sometime before she get's her inner stuff going again cause she's so large.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3209. Vincent4989
8:23 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Poll:
What chances do you think NHC will downgrade Irene?
a.Never
b.Near 0 %
c.10%
d.20%
e.30%
f.40%
g.50%
h.60%
i.70%
j.80%
k.90%
l.Near 100%
m.Absolute 100%
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
3208. TomTaylor
8:22 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Core still struggling. Been struggling just about all day. Irene actually looked nicest last night as far as organization is concerned.

Dvorak numbers also reflect that
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3207. atmosweather
8:22 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
wait, help me out a sec, how would a trough induce a westerly component?

Do you mean like if the trough amplified or dug in enough to the west that the path of lowest pressures/least resistance would actually be slightly west of north causing Irene to move more westerly?


Yes, the Great Lakes trough could possibly deepen and amplify further to the south as the Euro and GFS are forecasting, and could even be at a slightly negative tilt which could force Irene a little to the NNW near the end of the 5 day period.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3206. RiverSteve
8:21 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
new blog
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
3205. Gorty
8:21 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


I'd expect a small W-ward shift at days 4 and 5.


Same. Idk why but I always like to say New England area rather than days 4 and 5 lol.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3204. TomTaylor
8:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


That would depend on the strength and exact tilt of the mid latitude trough. I'd say it's unlikely that it would amplify far enough to impart a W-erly component to the motion by days 4 and 5. However if the trough comes in more negatively tilted, similar to what the 00z GFS is hinting at, then she could move on a slightly NNW course through the NE US.
wait, help me out a sec, how would a trough induce a westerly component?

Do you mean like if the trough amplified or dug in enough to the west that the path of lowest pressures/least resistance would actually be slightly west of north causing Irene to move more westerly?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3203. atmosweather
8:19 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Gorty:
I think the NHC will shift their track a little west for New England area for 5 am but the cone may very well stay the same.


I'd expect a small W-ward shift at days 4 and 5.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3202. atmosweather
8:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh ouch, and I'm guessing you live on the east coast too?

I live on the west coast (Southern California specifically) so its not too late here


Just east of Orlando, FL. But in a couple of months I'll be moving just N of San Diego to start a new job with my father. Where abouts are you located?
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3201. drg0dOwnCountry
8:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2011

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
3200. Gorty
8:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
I think the NHC will shift their track a little west for New England area for 5 am but the cone may very well stay the same.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3199. drg0dOwnCountry
8:16 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
3198. Floodman
8:15 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting prioris:
>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.




I'd love to discuss this with you further, I truly would; your take on things is fascinating, if somewhat, er, unconventional...unfortunately, I must retire as I have a particularly long day ;preparing for our govenr,ments (or is it someone elses) artificially induced weather catastrophe. Have a wonderful evening; next time you make it to this sector you must really look us up...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3197. TomTaylor
8:14 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.
oh ouch, and I'm guessing you live on the east coast too?

I live on the west coast (Southern California specifically) so its not too late here
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3196. atmosweather
8:14 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Gorty:


Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of seat till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.


That's the best thing you can do. Be prepared and keep a very watchful eye until that evil monster gets out of dodge lol.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3195. Vincent4989
8:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/

Ca...ca...ca.ca.....ca....ca......category SIX!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
3194. Gorty
8:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.


Well not trying to sound mean to you or any other forecaster but I don't care what anyone says, I am going to be on the edge of my seat very concerned till she passes after hitting me or till I know the worst will be to my east or west.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3193. prioris
8:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Floodman I really don't want to hear about your tin foil hats. i think that's what those government paid posters talk about all the time.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
3192. RiverSteve
8:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Floodman:
Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats


lead lined beanies hmmm Good idea flood
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
3191. atmosweather
8:11 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Gorty:
Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.


The outer bands are much harder to forecast than the thunderstorms closer to the eyewall because some of them can be simply passing showers and others can contain very strong winds, torrential rain and possible tornadoes. Once you get closer to the inner rainbands and the eyewall then you pretty much know you are going to get steadier rainfall and a lot more wind impacts.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3190. atmosweather
8:09 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.


Lol Irene is the first storm I've blogged wire to wire since 2009 I think...the time is hard to find nowadays. I miss being around here and learning and discussing.

And I should be doing the same as you considering I have work from 9-6 today haha.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3189. Floodman
8:08 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Did prioris leave? I was hoping to discuss the finer points of protective head gear and the advantages of lead lined propeller beanies versus your basic tinfoil hat...rats
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3188. Gorty
8:07 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Is it unpredictable how strong rain and wind with any band that hits me? someone please answer.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3187. atmosweather
8:07 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
The NOAA G-IV plane ("Gonzo") has now sent down 11 dropsondes around the SE US coast sampling more and more of the environment for input in the 12z models.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3186. prioris
8:07 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
>So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely?

we can cross warm water off the list.

dust devils, tornadoes, hurricanes and even galaxy formations are all related to electromagnetic fields

the powers that be know more about the weather than they will tell you because they classify it as a weapon. they want to be able to artificially control and create events. they keep the population dumb down. when they cull the population more drasticallym, this will be useful to them.

so you don't know weather a hurricane, earthquake etc are really natural or artificially created or modified.

someone said to me that they watch the weather because it was one of the last vestiges that the government can't lie about that. i had to inform him that wasn't true. gargantuan lies are all over the scientific arena.


Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
3185. TomTaylor
8:06 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.
agreed.

Prior to Irene, I haven't really seen him on the blog much this year, but he certainly knows his stuff and brings up great points. Keeps me on my toes that's for sure lol

Anyway, I'm just passing by really quick, don't think I'll be sticking around tonight.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
3184. dewfree
8:05 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
week front comming in from the north west so we will have to wait and see Irene get past the mid atlantic first .
Nothing is out of the question with any tropical system . They can head nw tun so much that they wind up farther south and west of position .
however i think it is more plausable NC at as i have said mertle to kitty hawk .next post 2 pm
see you guys
Dew
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
3183. drg0dOwnCountry
8:04 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Hurricane Irene Bears Down on the U.S., Likely Adding to a Brutal Disaster Toll


But here's a particularly scary thought: even before Irene or any other hurricane makes landfall on the continental U.S., 2011 has already been a devastating year for weather-related disasters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. has so far experienced nine separate disasters, each with an economic cost of $1 billion or more — tying a record set in 2008. (Usually, the U.S. experiences three to four billion-dollar weather events a year.) Beyond the cost — which adds up to about $35 billion so far — at least 589 people have died in those events, including 160 in the terrifying Joplin, Mo., tornado this May. Other billion-dollar disasters include:

The Groundhog Day blizzard on the East Coast, which cost more than $2 billion
The Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes in April, which cost more than $9 billion and killed more than 300 people
The Mississippi River flooding, which cost up to $4 billion
The Southwest heat wave and drought, which has cost at least $5 billion

Billion-dollar disasters aren't new — the U.S. has had 108 of them over the past 31 years, totaling more than $750 billion. (The figures are adjusted for inflation.) And 2011 may just be a taste of the future. Both the populations and the economies of many vulnerable areas have grown considerably in recent years (check out this photo of Miami Beach in 1926 and the same crowded coastal area today). More people and more development in parts of the country hit by storms and floods mean more expensive disasters. And that's without considering the possible impact that manmade climate change could have in amplifying some extreme weather events, like floods, heat waves and hurricanes. As Jim Harper writes in Scientific American, researchers are even considering adding a Category 6 to hurricane ratings — one with no upper limit for wind speed:
Now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common — especially in the Atlantic.
This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.


Read more: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/08/24/hurri cane-irene-bears-down-on-the-u-s-adding-to-a-bruta l-disaster-toll/
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
3182. atmosweather
8:00 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
An air force hurricane hunter plane is flying back into Irene to make a center fix for the 5AM advisory.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3181. atmosweather
7:54 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?


That would depend on the strength and exact tilt of the mid latitude trough. I'd say it's unlikely that it would amplify far enough to impart a W-erly component to the motion by days 4 and 5. However if the trough comes in more negatively tilted, similar to what the 00z GFS is hinting at, then she could move on a slightly NNW course through the NE US.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3180. Gorty
7:53 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.


Ok thanks for all your input. Still a dangerous situation for me. The first outer band is forecast to come at me sat. night. Going to be interesting how strong the winds will be with the very first band of the cyclone.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3179. Floodman
7:52 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting prioris:
>Can you provide us with some examples of this phenomenon in action?

the NWS reports the strengthening way up north many times over the years. you ought to pay attention.

some hurricanes will make it to england

you should look up arctic hurricanes

i remember even the blizzard of 1978 in new england was a giant hurricane shaped storm over the northeast

pushing the warm water myth is telling people lies about the weather




So what your saying is that the definition of a hurricane is wrong and that you have discovered cold water tropical cyclones? That's amazing! Tell me more...or not; up to you. So these hurricanes dervei thier power from what, precisely? If you tell me pressure differntial we'll have to argue for a while...just saying
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
3178. atmosweather
7:50 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Gorty:


Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.


It's very hard to predict that. Based on the overall pattern and the predicted evolution of the approaching shortwave impulses I'd be surprised if any of the models shifted further W than a blend of the GFS/Euro solutions. That is probably the furthest W Irene's track would most likely take. The eastern solutions could move back to the west and follow the Euro's lead (which has done very well so far with Irene) or continue further to the east closer to E-ern Long Island, RI and MA.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3177. OracleDeAtlantis
7:50 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.
Ok smart guy, tell me if Irene may try and hook left? If she can go straight north, she could hook a little?
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 502
3176. atmosweather
7:48 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting NJ2S:


What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level


That type of a track would be the worst case scenario for NJ, NYC and Long Island, your area included. If that sort of a track begins to look likely then you need to think about leaving the area and making necessary preparations to protect your life and property. The entire NE-ern portion of NJ would be under threat from hurricane force winds and if you live south of Newark near the southern portion of the Hudson then storm surge could be a major problem.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3175. Gorty
7:47 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Looks like shes getting ready to take off again in intensity.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3174. Gorty
7:45 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.


Do you think the eastern models, since they are shifting west, will they go back east or how far west could they go? By the New England area.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3173. atmosweather
7:44 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting Gorty:


So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?


Yes absolutely. But we are getting a better idea of what specific areas will experience the worst of Irene the closer she gets to the US coastline.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3172. atmosweather
7:43 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting 34chip:
Atmosweather you seem like a really smart guy that knows his stuff. You should become a weather guy. lol Anyway keep it up.


Thanks very much appreciated lol! I've learned a huge amount from bloggers on this site in the last 6 years, also had a chance to do an internship at NWS Peachtree City which was an invaluable experience. And of course 2 years of met courses in college doesn't hurt either lol. It is a fascinating scientific field and I learn something new everytime I come to the blog or open a weather map.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
3171. Gorty
7:42 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


At a possible landfall yes, definitely in the conversation especially with 3 major models (GFDL/HWRF/Euro) consistently forecasting a very intense hurricane maintaining strength all the way to the NE US coast. However once the storm made it 50-100 miles inland and into central or W-ern MA it would most likely weaken to a Category 1 storm or tropical storm.


So bottom line, track and intensity is uncertain for any given location. Right?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3170. NJ2S
7:42 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes that is possible. But a track like the 00z Euro would actually be a lot better for the NE since Irene will move over quite a bit of land in the mid Atlantic states before reaching the area and the wind damage will certainly be curtailed. The rainfall will still be a very serious concern no matter what the exact track is, and the storm is so large that all areas of the NE will see very gusty winds at the very least.


What about the models having her pass barely over land in n carolina a just off shore the delmarlva and nj directly into NYC ? What would that mean for me here in nnj I'm a few block away from the Hudson river barely 10 ft above sea/river level
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
3169. victoriahurricane
7:41 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?


Only because of the EWRC she's going through right now, in about 12 hours or less, you'll see her ramp up again.
Member Since: October 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
3168. Gorty
7:41 AM GMT on August 25, 2011
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Irene max winds went down, why? Is this going to continue?


My guess is eye wall replacement cycle.... looks like she is going to strengthen soon.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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